I just heard back from Frank Coonelly regarding the Pirates' 2012 draft pool, and he clarified that the number will actually be significantly less than the $10 million that, in December, he seemed to suggest it would be.

Here's the background: in December, Vlad and I and several other bloggers interviewed Coonelly at PirateFest. The first question came from me, and I asked how big the Pirates' 2012 draft pool would be. You can read my questions and Coonelly's answers here. Coonelly seemed to say that the draft pool would be about $10 million. That answer surprised me, because my own math suggested the number should actually be significantly less than that. The draft pool only covers the first 10 rounds of the draft, and signing bonuses above $100,000 per pick for picks after that also count against that total.

Earlier this week, however, Jim Callis of Baseball America reported that the Pirates' 2012 pool would be only about $6.6 million, a very significant difference. I knew that, in December, Coonelly had been counting on getting two compensation picks, for Ryan Doumit and Derrek Lee, and now it looks like they'll only get the one for Doumit. But that still doesn't explain a difference of $3.4 million, since one compensation pick would be worth much less than that. So I wrote to both Callis and Coonelly to figure out what was going on.

Callis wrote back immediately, essentially confirming what he'd already written. I heard from Coonelly this afternoon. Here's what he had to say.

I have not crosschecked Jim’s numbers with the current state of the world, but my estimate from December has moved in several important respects, and it was an estimate of our total draft spend and not just our spend in the first 10 rounds.

First, I was assuming that we would be receiving two compensation selections between the first and second rounds. It now looks like we will not receive a compensation selection for Derrek Lee. We had estimated that Lee would bring a selection around [No.] 40 and roughly a $1.3M addition to the pool. That number looks to be zero now.

Second, there were more compensation selections granted to other clubs than we had estimated. There seem to have been many agreements by players not to accept an arbitration offer. These additional compensation selections reduce the value of all of our selections following our first-round selection, beginning with our lone compensation selection (for Doumit) through our 10th-round selection. In early December, we were estimating that our 12 selections in the first 10 rounds would create a pool of approximately $8M, but the large number of compensation selections mean that our 11 selections in the first 10 rounds now will create a smaller pool.

In addition, my estimate from December included an estimate for the money that we would spend in rounds 11-40. We had estimated that we would spend approximately $2M there for the total of $10M.

So it sounds like Callis' reporting -- not that there was really a reason to doubt it in the first place -- was right, or essentially right. Assuming that the Pirates' pool will be about $6.6 million, they'll be able to spend about $8.6 million if they spend $2 million on the last 30 picks, as Coonelly estimates, or a hair more than $8.6 million if they pay a tax for the overage. My sense is that it will be tricky to spend $2 million on the last 30 picks, given that teams aren't supposed to go above $100,000 on them. But it may be possible to pull off a $400,000 signing or two later in the draft by getting a few picks in the top 10 rounds to sign for less than the recommended pool maximum, and then using the leftover funds on late-round picks.

In any case, it sounds like we should trust Callis' numbers on this one.

For whatever it's worth, here's an exchange Frank Coonelly, Vlad and I had in December regarding the draft pool. The news that the Pirates are only getting a pool of $6.6 million is catching me off guard a bit, and you'll probably see why when you read below.

Charlie: So how much is the draft pool?

Coonelly: How much is the draft pool? Ours, for next year, is roughly ... Depends on, well I think we'll get two, I know we'll get two supplemental choices if we don't sign Lee, so it'll be around 10 for us. The highest will be $11.7 million, I think ...

Charlie: 10.

Coonelly: 10.

Charlie: How does that work if the slot [pool value] for the eighth overall pick is $2.9 million and the first overall pick is $7.5 ...

Coonelly: $7.2, I believe.

Charlie: Okay. That's still a big difference, and the only way I can see you guys making that up is with the two comp picks, so how does that work?

Coonelly: Well. I'm counting on two comp picks.

Charlie: Okay. But that still shouldn't add up to $4.3 million, which is the difference between ... is that right? Does the math work?

Vlad: I would trust his math. He's the one that's seen it.

Coonelly: We're around 10. We're going to be around 10.

The Baseball America reporting that came out earlier today only includes one comp pick, since Derrek Lee hasn't signed yet, but obviously, there's no way to make up the difference between $6.6 million and $10 million with one comp pick. We'll see if the BA reporting is wrong, or if Coonelly was wrong. Jim Callis is normally really reliable, obviously.

UPDATE by Charlie: There's the possibility that Coonelly was talking about the entire draft budget. Since the effective limit for spending on each pick after the first 10 rounds is $100,000, and $100,000 x 30 = $3 million, he might have meant that the limit for spending on the entire draft was about $10 million. However, the last 30 rounds are not part of the pool, and he is clearly referring to draft pools elsewhere in his answer. Also, it would be extremely hard to spend that entire $3 million, since there are few players who would 1) require a bonus that large and 2) be tempted by a bonus that small. In the last four years, the Pirates have only given draft bonuses near $100,000 to a handful of players outside the first eight or nine rounds. Usually $100,000 isn't enough to prevent a good prospect from going to college, and yet it's more than you want to pay an organizational player or a college type who wants to hit the ground running.

Anyway, the big issue for me -- aside from the news that the Pirates' draft pool is that small -- is how the Pirates could have signed off on the CBA while being off by a third on one of the key issues surrounding it. I just sent emails to both Coonelly and Callis; hopefully I'll hear from them.

UPDATE by Charlie: Here's Jim Callis' response about what might explain the difference between his numbers and Coonelly's:

I think it's the difference between estimating and actually crunching the numbers. The Lee pick would be worth another $900,000. Perhaps he was thinking of 2013 forward, when there wouldn't be so many compensation picks (pushing the value of several of their picks down) and they'd have a competitive-balance lottery choice in many years (which could be worth more than $1 million).

The Pirates pick once in each round, including the sandwich round. Their No. 8 pick is worth $2.9 million, their No. 45 pick is worth $1,136,400 and it tails off from there.