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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Rangers Trade for Brandon McCarthy

Rangers get:

SP Brandon McCarthy
OF David Paisano

White Sox get:

SP John Danks
RP Nick Masset
P Jacob Rasner

Tons of potential going both directions in this deal. McCarthy is a relatively polished young pitcher who could step up and be a reliable starter immediately. Danks was one of the Rangers' top prospects, and he's also close to the majors. Rasner is a mildly interesting prospect who's an extremely long way from the majors. Masset can help in the 'pen right now at the major league level, but doesn't have much upside. Paisano is so young and so far from the majors it's impossible to say what the Rangers are getting, but he killed the ball in the Venezuelan Summer League last year.

I've never seen Danks pitch. I've seen McCarthy several times and have been very, very impressed. Also, he has a major league track record, and Danks doesn't. So I like what the Rangers got in this trade, although it's far too early to declare a winner.

This is a really gutsy trade, by the way - it's rare that two youngsters with star potential are traded for each other. If one blossoms and the other doesn't, one of these GMs is going to look really bad.

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McCarthy has flaws
Nate Silver says that while McCarthy is quite good, he's got one flaw that could turn him into a right-handed Eric Milton: he gives up a lot of HR's. That's not good news for Texas, especially in that ballpark.

by Willton on Dec 25, 2006 12:54 AM EST reply actions  

"Right Handed Eric Milton"
I see the point about the homers, but the Milton comparison is IMHO a bit much. McCarthy never had a homer problem in the minors (well, except maybe in Charlotte, which I believe is a park where a lot of homers are hit), and he's young. Plus, it's easy to forget that Milton was a pretty good pitcher until recently.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 25, 2006 2:40 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah, but
Danks allowed 22 homers in 140 minor league innings. Not good.

by bolton on Dec 25, 2006 2:40 AM EST up reply actions  

McCarthy vs Danks
McCarthy's K and BB numbers in the minor leagues are superior to Danks'.  Both had trouble with homers in the high minors, and McCarthy's HR tendencies have continued to the majors.  Still, I'd have a hard time trading a pitcher who will be 24 next year, dominated the low minors, has only pitched about 270 innings above AA, and has shown he can be can be effective in the majors.  Unless there's something about McCarthy I don't know, like he's an intolerable jerk or his rotator cuff is about to snap or he has a double-secret roster bonus of $10M due in April, there's no way I make this deal.

by estranged o on Dec 25, 2006 3:21 PM EST reply actions  

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