Brent Lillibridge

by Charlie on Jan 17, 2007 9:36 PM EST in News Comment 22 comments

So apparently PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus's projection system, has an enormous machine-crush on Brent Lillibridge. PECOTA thinks he could be an excellent leadoff hitter right now and considers him one of the best prospects in baseball.

I'm just throwing that out there as something to discuss. I don't have any particular reason to "believe" it, exactly, and I can't come up with any compelling reason to change the opinion of Lillibridge I had before. I also think it's weird that I'd never heard anyone describe Lillibridge as a top-notch prospect before today. But the thought that there may be upside there that I didn't notice makes me a bit queasy, and it makes Dave Littlefield's refusal to trade Chris Duffy all the more perplexing.

I'm still cautiously optimistic about this deal, but wow, do I not understand not giving up Duffy.

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Top Notch

If you haven't heard Lillibridge described as a top notch prospect before today, then you haven't been looking at Baseball Prospectus or John Sickels website. His numbers were very impressive last year. Granted, he must pass the test of AA, but I really think he's a potential all star, and the Pirates chain is empty of shortstops other than Bixler, who I do not see as an every day major league shortstop.

Romak I know little about. He's big, powerful and selective at the plate, but he hasn't had good batting averages and he strikes out a ton. He's only 21 and he's from Canada, so he may be a late bloomer.

The Pirates definitely won this trade in the short term. In the long term, I don't like it.

by sisyphus on Jan 17, 2007 10:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sickels

I'd seen what Sickels had to say, which was pretty much in line with my opinion based on the numbers - Lillibridge could be good, who knows, Grade B. PECOTA (which I hadn't seen because I just purchased today) is saying he's among the top prospects in baseball, which strikes me as so outlandish I don't know what to say. Yes, the numbers are extremely impressive, but he was also fairly old for his levels and has barely played above A-ball.

by Charlie on Jan 17, 2007 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge

I assume you saw the Nate Silver article about the trade called Shuerholz 1, Littlefield 0, saying Lillibridge is the best player in the trade, Charlie. But did you read Kevin Goldstein's summary on Lillibridge that Silver linked? He ranks him third in the Pirates' system ahead of Walker. It's free. I post it below in it's entirety for those that haven't seen it. Goldstein's conclusion: Lilibridge is "one of the minor leagues hidden gems".

3. Brent Lillibridge, ss
DOB: 9/18/83
Height/Weight: 5-11/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 4th round, 2005, University of Washington
What he did in 2006: .299/.414/.522 at Low A (333 PA); .313/.426/.423 at High A (252 PA)
The Good: Underrated prospect has no real weaknesses in his game. Very good defensive shortstop with above-average range, hands and arm. Solid hitting skills augmented by very high walk rate, surprising pop and excellent base-stealing abilities.
The Bad: Power he showed at High-A (two HRs in 201 ABs) is closer to reality than Low-A line (11 HRs in 274 ABs), though he projects to hit 10-12 annually in the big leagues. Can get out of control defensively at times, leading to stupid errors.
The Irrelevant: Lillibridge ended the year with an 11-game hitting streak in which he went 18-for-41 (.439) with eight walks and 12 runs scored.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An above-average starting shortstop.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average - One of the minor leagues' hidden gems, Lillibridge might be ready for Double-A. His biggest obstacle to the big leagues isn't Jack Wilson, it's Jack Wilson's contract.

Silver thinks Liliibridge starting for the Braves this year is not out of the question. The Braves are thin in the mid INF and it's hard to find guys who can play there and hit too.

BP is not alone. Sickels was pointing to Liilibridge as someone to watch in his '06 book before he broke out. He likes him a lot more now; here is what Sickels said a few days ago.

3. Brent Lillibridge, SS, B (Watch this guy, he could be really good)
He also ranked Lillibridge ahead of Walker.

My conclusion. The last few weeks McNutter began ratcheting up the pressure on DL to do something to show the fans he cared about winning. The press conference, the trade, all part of orchestrated PR to keep the fan base from crumbling further. DL panicked and threw in Lillibridge. Schuerholz probably knew he would.

by rogero on Jan 17, 2007 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good analysis

[blockquote][i]My conclusion. The last few weeks McNutter began ratcheting up the pressure on DL to do something to show the fans he cared about winning. The press conference, the trade, all part of orchestrated PR to keep the fan base from crumbling further. DL panicked and threw in Lillibridge. Schuerholz probably knew he would.[/i][/blockquote]

I Recall Littlefield quote from a few years back (I quote from memory):

[blockquote][i]Who would you rather have. Chris Shelton or Reggie Sanders[/i][/blockquote]

At that point we had neither. Yet, the implicit point was: We build for today and within our budget; tomorrow will take care of itself.

by steve_z on Jan 18, 2007 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DL

DL had been talking with the Braves about a deal for LaRoche for about 2 months. He and the McNutters surely came to know a while ago what it would take to get it done. So rather than just make the trade, they decided to orchestrate their PR campaign announcing the "change" in management and taking the opportunity emphasize their commitment to winning (against all evidence). First the press conference, then the trade.

The open question for me is whether (1) DL pretty much knows what he had in Lillibridge and offered him anyway to please his bosses and play his part in the campaign, or (2)he doesn't know and played into Schuerholz's hands.

Overall, they still don't have the talent to compete, and now their farm system is so thin as to be a worse joke than their major league roster.

by rogero on Jan 18, 2007 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

littlefield

Littlefield would have been fired if the Pirates didn't make a single significant move this offseason and then failed to win 70 games in 2007. So it makes sense that he would trade some of the Pirates' future (rather than someone from the 2007 team, such as Duffy or Maholm) to save his own.

With Littlefield operating from this position of weakness, I don't think he had much leverage with the Braves, especially once the Braves got a reliever from Seattle and Aubrey Huff signed with Baltimore. The Pirates need LaRoche more than the Braves need Gonzalez.

by bolton on Jan 18, 2007 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's hard to exagerate how bad our situation is

A strong organization can make trades like this. A weak one cannot.

by steve_z on Jan 18, 2007 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a PR move

And it worked.

by steve_z on Jan 18, 2007 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lillibridge

The perfect PECOTA prospect is one who has plate discipline, good speed, at least some power, and is young for his level. Lillibridge satisfies three of those elements, so it's no wonder he got a positive forecast. Playing an up-the-middle defensive position also helps.

For most teams, losing Lillibridge wouldn't be that big a deal. But for a team with so few prospects, it's pretty risky.

The prospect we got back has OK discipline, good power, not much speed and is neither young nor old for his level. You never know, but I'd be shocked if Romak ever hits enough to be a big-league corner outfielder.

I think the Pirates got the surest thing in the trade, but the Braves could be the big winners. For me, much depends on Gonzalez's health. He could be damaged goods.

by bolton on Jan 17, 2007 10:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ZiPS

His ZiPS weren't that great, though I thought they were pretty good for a guy that hasn't played above A ball. And they were sadly on par with Jack Wilson's. IIRC, PECOTA is a better projector of hitting that ZiPS is though. Still, before Sickels' list came out I hadn't seen anyone that thought of him as more than a utility guy.

by Pat on Jan 17, 2007 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge

When I saw he gave up uor best middle infield prospect i had a fit.
Typical Littlebrain-keep the 4th outfield who starts(Duffy) and let
go of the guy who would start in a little while. So we are stuck
whith the horrible Jack Wilson 'til his contract runs out.

by TGT on Jan 18, 2007 9:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dont make fun of me...

for looking at it like this, but how many prospects have we been burned by recently?

Its the simplistic way to view it, but I'd rather take a chance on a guy with a track record in the majors, who could maybe replicate those numbers and maybe improve them a bit and fills a huge need, than count on a kid who hasn't played above A ball.

Hey, I'm a Pirate fan. I've been burned before.

by hisjazziness on Jan 18, 2007 9:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

agreed

I'd much rather have a Major League level first baseman than a prospect in High A ball any day. If Lillibridge turns out to be A-Rod in 3 years then we can discount this deal, but for now it's LaRoche for Gonzo in my eyes...

For the record, Gonzo is still on the banner at Pirateball.com...

by bryanzane on Jan 18, 2007 10:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Charlie's Fantasy

Under 25? Check.
High walk rate? Check.
PECOTA loves him? Check.
Doesn't have starting job? Check.

Should we pencil him in for your fantasy draft this fall, Charlie?

by estranged o on Jan 18, 2007 10:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Heh

Yeah, maybe if we draft 50 rounds. He lacks power, which is the only drawback as far as my fantasy fetishes are concerned.

by Charlie on Jan 18, 2007 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LaRoche & Pirates splits

Having attended all but two home games last season I am aware of the Pirates' uncanny struggles in day games. The team went 18-37 in day games and 49-58 at night. That made me curious to see what LaRoche's splits might be. LaRoche hit .211 in day games (and has a career .223 mark), as compared to a .312 mark at night (career .293). Hopefully these numbers even out a bit more this year.

by JimBibbySweat on Jan 18, 2007 11:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge or LaRoache? A No Brainer!!

If it takes Lillibrige to get LaRoache so be it. How many of our top prospects have ever turned out for the Pirates. Most of them Pitchers have been injury prone and have been busts ( Bryan Bullington, Bobby Bradley, Sean Burnett, John VanBenschoten)and oh yeah remember Chad Hermansen and J.J. Davis!! Where are they now, Give me a proven major league starter with power and I will take him over our so called prospects anyday. Gonzo will be good for the Braves but the Pirates are not in situation where they can dicdate trade offers. This is a good deal for the Pirates even with Lillibridge thrown in!!!

Bake304

by Steel City on Jan 18, 2007 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes they can

"the Pirates are not in situation where they can dicdate trade offers."

In a pitching market like this offseason's, they absolutely are in that position. Littlefield's just never been particularly good at using his leverage when he actually has it (such as when Kris Benson was the best SP available at the deadline and we got little in return).

by matskralc on Jan 18, 2007 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Never fear

Brian Bixler is still around, for what it is worth.

Really, if you have a productive farm system and a goos scouting staff, you don't blink when they ask for Lillibridge. I liked Lillibridge this season after seeing him at Lynchburg, moreso than Walker and Pearce. He can stay in the IF and should be able to be a 2 hitter.

As for his age, don't hold that against him. He'll play at AA as a 23 yo and should end up in AAA sooner than later. The Pirates should have started him a High A to begin with this season, meaning he should have ended at AA.

As for the deal - now there are two MLB caliber hitters in the Pirates lineup. To use my favorite movie quote out of context - I'll alert the media.

How much of LaRoche's success was hitting in the Braves' lineup with the Jones and McCann is what really worries me. And heaven forbid if he slips back to a 800 OPS - if he struggles even a little bit, that would be bad (obviously).

No Win Meter update?

by Greg Schuler on Jan 18, 2007 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

73, being generous

It was on another thread.

by bucdaddy on Jan 18, 2007 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like my win meter at

79 now.

Geez, some of you guys must think that Lillibridge is the second coming of Honus Wagner.

Did any of you think that Gonzalez might have a major breakdown in the near future?

LaRoche could very well continue to improve all aspects of his game.

I like this move. From prior comments, some of you would undoubtedly rescind this transaction and replace it with Gonzalez for Melky Cabrera.

I don`t think much of DL. Never have, and seriously doubt I ever will. But this is a step in a positive direction for the Bucs, in my mind.

I do believe the rationale that keeping Duffy and Maholm makes more sense for the Pirates. They are two guys with upsides at the big league level. Lillibridge is a college guy who just finished a year at A-ball. I wish him the best, but I think the Pirates did just fine with this deal.

by patthatt on Jan 18, 2007 10:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs