Bucs Dugout: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Cal RB Jahvid Best Seriously Injured, Carted Off Field

Community Projection Review: Ian Snell

NAME POS. COMMUNITY ZiPS ACTUAL
Ian Snell SP 4.28 ERA, 193 IP, 172 K, 71 BB 4.53 ERA, 169 IP, 140 K, 62 BB 3.76 ERA, 208 IP, 177 K, 68 BB

Azibuck was easily the closest guesser, with a blindingly accurate prediction of a 3.77 ERA, 212 IP, 192 K, and 61 BB. Nobody else even guessed that Snell would have an ERA below 4. Nice work, Azibuck.

Snell exceeded expectations this year, just like he's done his entire career. For the first three months of the season, he had an All-Star-caliber year, posting a 2.93 ERA before the break. He then allowed 13 of his 22 homers in July and August, posting an ERA above six in each month, before pulling it together in September.

It's hard to say what Snell's performance this year means about what he'll do next year. The fact that he allowed so many homers in July in August is interesting. It could just be a fluke, but it could also be the result of some kind of mechanical tinkering that I couldn't detect. From watching, there didn't seem to be any reason why he started pithing so badly all of a sudden, except that he left more balls up in the zone. (Duh.) What's strange is that he had no problem getting the ball into the zone, with only 7 walks in 29 innings in July and 12 in 37.1 innings in August. In September, he allowed 17 walks, but he somehow posted a 1.64 ERA and only allowed one homer. Maybe this was some kind of effort on his part to keep the ball low in the zone; I'm not sure.

Then again, every season is full of little adjustments and compensations and overcompensations, and what's really important is that Snell made a big step forward this year. He dramatically improved his gopherball problems, allowing seven fewer homers than in 2006 despite pitching 22 more innings, reduced his walk rate, and lowered his ERA by a full run.

He may give back some of that improvement next year, but given Snell's history, I wouldn't bet on it. And there's still room for him to get even better: lefties hit .284/.352/.447 off him.

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Blindingly Accurate
Ha! I think I just got next year's fantasy team name.

by azibuck on Oct 26, 2007 8:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

bad news?
on bucco blog and mlbtraderumors.com they say snell could be headed to the rockies??
hope not..hes my favorite

by snellstud45 on Oct 27, 2007 7:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

MLBTR got it from Jake...
...and if Jake said it was raining, I'd take an umbrella.

by Vlad on Oct 27, 2007 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

for what its worth...
they also seem convinced bay is headed to the twins for garza

by snellstud45 on Oct 28, 2007 9:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Garza+ could be good.
Garza even-up, I'm more skeptical about.

by Vlad on Oct 29, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Pittsburgh Pirates.
Start posting about the Pirates »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Park_fathersday_aj_bday_030_small
What's to become of Neil Walker?
Small
Pittsburgh Proud
Small
Pirates rotation next year
Small
Rich Harden
20090612mf_fleury_cup_500hp_small
JJ Hardy traded to the Twins!
101_0170_small
Lot of Pent Up News from World Series No Fly Zone
3dacrssi_small
Let's say we didn't trade Freddy...
18470r_small
Ex-Pirate Enrique Wilson is apparently a real sleazeball
Remer_small
What you can expect from Aki
Pitt20_small
Akinori Iwamura is Officially A Pirate

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

VV, Hacker, Lerud Off 40 Man
Kevin Polcovich honored
Rich Hill Is A Free Agent
Anyone for Brian Buscher
Atlanta's Offseason Needs May included Trading for Matt Capps
Shortstop – Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh and Seattle Wilson won’t win a Gold Gl...
Freddy Sanchez re-ups with Giants
Pirates name Carlos Garcia 1B coach/Infield Instructor
Pirates Claim Justin Thomas off Waivers from M's
Pirates to Move High-A Affiliate to Florida State League

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

SPONSORS


Managers

Charlie_small Charlie