Perrotto: John Russell May be New Manager

by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 2, 2007 9:28 PM EDT in News

There were strong indications Friday night that the choice was former Pirate third-base coach John Russell.

Russell, 46, who was on the Pirates staff in 2003-05, is currently the manager of Philadelphia's Class AAA Lehigh Valley farm club.

Boston pitching coach John Farrell was considered the favorite to replace Jim Tracy, who was fired on Oct. 5.

However, Farrell said Friday that he decided not to interview with the Pirates.

"I just decided that what's best for me right now is to remain with the Red Sox," said Farrell, who just finished his first season in Boston and helped the Red Sox win the World Series.

There's no quote in support of Perrotto's speculations about Russell, and Perrotto tends not to be the world's most reliable reporter, so take this with a grain of salt for now. We'll see whether it gets confirmed.

Personally, this would surprise me a little bit, if only because I wouldn't think Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington would want to hire someone with ties to the old regime. Also, there's this:

Russell said he is firm believer that pitching, defense and basic fundamentals win ballgames and that is what happened with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

"You manage with what you had. We were not a big power hitting team, so pitching and defense was obviously the key, and that's key with any team," Russell said. "We had to create runs. We had to hit and run, try to move guys over when we could. We took advantage of any scoring opportunities. We then pitched, played defense and hung on."

Granted, we don't know a whole lot yet about Huntington's approach to the game, but that just doesn't sound consistent with what Huntington says in a Q+A today:

We are going to utilize several objective measures of player performance to evaluate and develop players. We'll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc., but we'll also look to rely on some of the more recent variations: VORP (value over replacement player), Relative Performance, EqAve (equivalent average), EqOBP (equivalent on base percentage), EqSLG (equivalent slugging percentage), BIP% (balls put into play percentage), wOBA (weighted on base average), Range Factor, PMR (probabilistic model of range) and Zone Rating.

That said, we will continue to stress the importance of our subjective evaluations. Succinctly stated, we believe that a combination of quality objective and subjective analysis will allow us to maximize our probability of success and to make the best possible decisions.

Now, it's likely that any GM today could rattle off a list of fancy statistics whether or not he actually cared about them, but the fact that Huntington volunteered so much specific information indicates to me that he probably does care, at least to some degree. And if he actually understands VORP and Probabilistic Model of Range, he's got to know that the managerial approach Russell's advancing is not a very good one.

By the way, if you're curious about Russell's performance with Scranton in 2006, both the team's runs scored and its OPS were a hair beneath league average. They didn't win because they bunted and hit and ran - they did exactly what their OPS predicted they would. And the Toledo Mud Hens, who won the International League championship, finished second in the league in runs scored, led by our own Josh Phelps.

UPDATE: WTM in the comments:

Pitching, defense and basic fundamentals: Damn, what a brilliant idea. That hasn't been tried in Pittsburgh since... uh... Jim Tracy.

Yeah, exactly. The thing is that there's nothing inherently wrong with a team built around those things, as long as that path is not pursued blindly. If you're acquiring pitchers and defenders because they're the best value, that's great. The problem is that when someone invokes "pitching, defense and basic fundamentals," it's usually code for "I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT." The "pitching, defense and basic fundamentals" concept has no substance; it's just a cliche, usually designed to show a resistance to them newfangled statistics rather than an actual commitment to pitching, defense or fundamentals, much less an ability to actually identify those things. Someone like Tracy or Dave Littlefield can't even pursue that pitching/defense thing because they couldn't actually identify a good defender if they bobbled one and it smacked them in the face. And it's not like Tracy showed any ability to actually teach fundamentals. Hell, he ran Ronny Paulino out there last year on a near-daily basis even as Paulino consistently did things that would've gotten him chewed out in American Legion ball. He defended Jeromy Burnitz for failing to run out grounders. And yet, when he was hired, he was all about "the little things".

The fact is that every manager is concerned, or should be concerned, about "fundamentals." So a managerial candidate saying he's into fundamentals, or "[taking] advantage of scoring opportunities," really should be like a new CEO telling her stockholders that she's interested in making money. Well, duh. (On second thought, maybe new CEOs really do say things like that. I don't know.)

But that's not what "pitching, defense and basic fundamentals" actually means. Usually, what it means is "I understand this game and I don't need you statheads giving me a bunch of crap about drawing walks. And I know what a good defender looks like, so I don't want to hear about UZR." It's very likely to be a pronouncement of ignorance, more than anything else. Perhaps I'm reacting too strongly, and I realize that Russell didn't actually use the word "fundamentals." But it's also pretty clear that the author's summary using that word describes what Russell was saying pretty well. I'm wary of anyone who talks like that, because when someone invokes "pitching, defense and basic fundamentals," it's usually a code for what they reject, not what they affirm.

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pitching, defense and basic fundamentals

Damn, what a brilliant idea. That hasn't been tried in Pittsburgh since . . . uh . . . Jim Tracy.

by WTM on Nov 2, 2007 9:37 PM EDT reply actions

Disagree, a little

Your update almost hits it. It is a cliche, but it might just be that he's saying what he thinks those that might hire him want to hear. For that matter, he might be feeding the media what they want to hear. Has baseball really turned the corner on modern stats? I don't think it has. And many members of the media lag waaay behind in that regard. So maybe Russell and others don't want to suddenly get branded as some wildcat stathead who doesn't understand some ballplayers were born to bunt. It's safe to talk this way.

by azibuck on Nov 2, 2007 10:30 PM EDT reply actions

True.

It's always hard to know how much of anyone's public comments should be taken at face value. If Russell were hired, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. But I don't love what I've read so far.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 2, 2007 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Coonelly has already talked about implementing...

...a unified approach in the organization. Even if Russell believed that pitching and defense win games, when compared to say, hitting, controlling the strike zone and scoring runs in bunches, I have to believe that the front office will impose its preferences on the on-field staff. This especially holds for first time managers like Russell. Opportunities to manage come along only so often that any rookie manager would risk PO his bosses!

by steve_z on Nov 2, 2007 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course

The Pirates think the same thing. Why else did Taber Lee have a job last year and they send Brazelton to AA? Pitching and defense wins.

As far as whatever Russell says - he'll make the Pirates hustle and take infield before games. And the media and fans will appreciate that - it looks better. But in reality, unless Neal and Frank are going to flood the team with talent in 2008, Russell has to stand on the dugout step resolutely, answer questions after the game with resolve and clap his hands, slap some ass and little else.

by Greg Schuler on Nov 6, 2007 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

WTM has already noted that...

...the next manager -- the one who replaces Russell -- will be the important hire. Of course, this assumes that the new regime fixes the scouting and development parts of the organization.

McClatchy and Littlefield loused up the organization that it will take a while before talent makes it to the majors from the minors. I've resigned myself to the Pirates setting a new futility standard in professional sports. The issue, to my mind, is whether or not the Pirates reach the 20 season losing record mark....

I'd be shocked to the point of suffering a heart attack if the Pirates were to spend big money on free agents this winter.

by steve_z on Nov 6, 2007 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

I disagree with Wilbur

The next owner is the most important hire. If the nuttings are still in charge, whoever replaces Russell will most likely be in the exact same boat.

It starts at the top - if that doesn't change, it won't matter who continues the string from Lamont to McClendon to Tracy to Russell.

by Greg Schuler on Nov 6, 2007 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

I don't have great confidence in the Nuttings....

...but Littlefield and McClatchy were sufficiently inept that merely competent management would provide a significant step up from what we have had in the past. Moreover, the Nutting partnership can not depend on Pittsburghers to support the Pirates indefinitely. An attendance collapse in not impossible and becomes more likely with each passing season spent below the McClatchy Line. So, even a profit maximizer like the Nuttings need to field a winner at some point if only to assure the credulous fans that the team is not ripping them off.

by steve_z on Nov 7, 2007 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

could someone please tell me

what it is in Perotto's past that haunts him on reliability? He scooped Meyer to death on Huntington; that's my most recent knowledge of it. To be unreliable to the point that it gets brought up every time he's cited, he must have called Florida for Gore or something. I haven't been reading him that long, I may have missed something. I'm just thinking his recent history on front office stuff is such that maybe he deserves some slack.

by KPatrick on Nov 2, 2007 10:41 PM EDT reply actions

I certainly...

read Perrotto's columns with interest, but it just doesn't seem he needs to have the confirmation that someone like Dejan Kovacevic needs when he runs with a rumor. You'll sometimes see Perrotto doing things like burying what should potentially be a huge story, if it could be confirmed, in the seventh paragraph of an article, or something.

Perrotto's articles at the BCT disappear behind a pay wall, so I can't point to those. But look at this one at Baseball Prospectus, from this May. A link to it is the subject of the first article that comes up if you google "perrotto 'trade rumors,'" so it's not like I cherry picked it.

He does a little rumor roundup at the end. Here's a complete list of the things in that list that can now be verified, or not:

-The Twins would trade Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon or Scott Baker for a hitter. That didn't happen.

-That the Orioles were interested in trading for Odalis Perez or Chan Ho Park. Didn't happen.

-John Gibbons was safe as manager of the Jays until the end of the season. Did happen, but he wasn't exactly going out on a limb there.

-Eulogio de la Cruz could become the Tigers' top set-up guy. Didn't happen.

-Jorge Julio could become the Marlins' closer. Didn't happen.

-The Padres were "ready" to send Kevin Kouzmanoff to the minors. Didn't happen.

That's it. Thanks for the rumors! I'm sure he had sources for all of them, but nothing happened.

Also, scooping Paul Meyer on a story is like, oh I don't know, outscoring Jim Tracy on an IQ test. And Perrotto didn't even get the story right. He published the Huntington story, then took it back and said that Huntington had, in fact, not won the job.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 2, 2007 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair points...

...although I wouldn't be too hard on him for trade rumors not panning out; if it weren't for trade rumors that don't pan out, nothing would be written between July 24 and July 31. 0-fer-spring isn't something you put on the resume, though, that's for sure.

I'd like to know a bit about what went on behind the scenes after Perotto broke the Huntington story. That became a veritable maelstrom of ass-covering by everyone involved within about 5 minutes.

by KPatrick on Nov 3, 2007 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions

extrapolaiton

We're making an awful lot here out of a short sentence, I think. Knee-jerk reaction to the phrase "move runners over" is no better than knee jerk reaction to the letters O, B and P. He's saying words that have never ever gotten a prospective manager crossed off a list of candidates. That's what you do when you're ambitious.

by KPatrick on Nov 2, 2007 10:48 PM EDT reply actions

Chuck Tanner

FWIW, he is our new assistant manager to GM per Scout board.

by Crosbyfan87 on Nov 2, 2007 10:49 PM EDT reply actions

Someone can correct me if I am wrong

I vaguely remember Russell being highly regarded and in the running for the manager position of the Pirates at one other time. I can't remember if it was for the Tracy hiring or Lloyd's.

Just looking at his bio on the Ottawa Lynx home page:

Managerial Highlights:

2006 Manager, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons (Class Triple-A, International League) 84-58: IL North Champions
2002 Manager, Edmonton Trappers (Class Triple-A, Pacific Coast League) 81-59: PCL Champions
2001 Manager, Edmonton Trappers (Class Triple-A, Pacific Coast League) 60-83
2000 Manager, New Britain Rock Cats (Class Double-A, Eastern League) 51-91
1999 Manager, New Britain Rock Cats (Class Double-A, Eastern League) 59-82
1998 Manager, New Britain Rock Cats (Class Double-A, Eastern League) 83-59: Northern Division Champions
1997 Manager, Fort Myers Miracle (Class A Advanced, Florida State League) 81-58
1996 Manager, Fort Myers Miracle (Class A Advanced, Florida State League) 79-58
1995 Manager, Elizabethtown Twins (Class A, Appalacian League) 33-31
Awards and Achievements:
2006 International League Manager of the Year
2002 Minor League Manager of the Year
2002 Baseball America "Best Managerial Prospect"
1998 Baseball America Eastern League "Top Managerial Prospect"

Don't know how that would transfer to the current situation, but he's obviously had some success with younger players in the past.

by Thunder on Nov 2, 2007 11:11 PM EDT reply actions

Heir(s) Apparent

IIRC, Russell was one of two former minor league MOY's when he (and the other guy) joined McClendon's staff. It was Kuntz or Mackanin; I'm pretty sure it was Kuntz, because I remember thinking that these guys came on specifically in case of a Lloyd firing, so I would have been a lot more jazzed by their naming Mackanin interim and a lot more annoyed by their casting him off.

Of course, I was obviously wrong...

by KPatrick on Nov 3, 2007 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't read it that way

I think Russell is saying "I didn't have any damn bats, so what the hell do you think I was supposed to try to win with? Of COURSE I believe in pitching, defense and fundamentals. I have to. They're all I have to work with."

Sometimes, guys, there's really nothing below the surface.

by bucdaddy on Nov 3, 2007 1:14 AM EDT reply actions

What about Huntington's follow-up answer...

What are the most important qualities you're looking for in a new manager? -- David H., Pittsburgh We are looking for a manager that brings positive energy and passion to the clubhouse. He will be a tireless instructor, an exhaustive communicator and will instill discipline and a sense of pride in the Pirates, what we stand for and how we play the game. That seems to me like DH is looking for the exact opposite of Tracy...which can't be a bad thing! Russell seems like he fits the first and last attribute very well (given his massive Minor League management and instruction background...he was even a catching instructor with the Pirates BEFORE Paulino came up!).

by Atomic FireBall on Nov 3, 2007 11:07 AM EDT reply actions

Russell

Don't know if this adds anything, but Ken Rosenthal had this a couple months back:

Yankees first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz offers an unsolicited endorsement of Phillies Class AAA manager John Russell as a candidate for the Royals and other clubs. "The only other guy I've seen use a bullpen like he does is Tom Kelly," says Mientkiewicz, who played for Russell twice in the Twins' Instructional League and also at Class A and AA. Russell also draws high marks from others, but some wonder whether he might be too quiet to handle the day-to-day media demands with a big-market club.