Slow, Slow, Slow

by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 30, 2007 1:56 PM EST in News

I guess I picked a good week to be away - nothing's going on, with the Pirates or with baseball in general. The Post-Gazette has a new article about Nate McLouth that's interesting mostly in that it makes me think that the Spring Training competition between him and Nyjer Morgan for the center field job may not be such a competition after all. The article suggests that all the stats are on McLouth's side (which is true) and that Neal Huntington may already have a pretty strong opinion based on them. Which would be great, since batting Morgan first is probably the surest path to another season as one of the worst offensive teams in the league.

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McLouth/Morgan comparison

If you break it down to stats/game and stats/AB these 2 are pretty well equal. Mclouth has more doubles per AB, but Morgan has 7 times more triples per AB. McLouth has more HR's, but that is counter productive to have your lead off man hitting home runs. Morgan has a better BA. If Morgan will lead us to the dismal offensive team that you say he will, Mclouth won't be much better. I don't believe that either will be as bad as that, but I do believe that there are better players out there. these guys are who we have, and if we aren't going to go get someone else, and I don't think we are, I say let them battle it out in spring training, and let the best lead off man win.

by 1eyedjack on Dec 31, 2007 11:11 AM EST reply actions

A HR is never counterproductive

I think I understand what you're trying to say, but I'll take a guy driving himself in rather than have him rely on someone else to do it. I believe your point is that a HR hitter is better served to hit lower in the lineup to drive in more runs, but consder this:

If your leadoff guy has legit power, the pitcher has to respect it and therefore nibble a bit more (no juicy fastballs down the pike). This would logically translate to more walks, which is also a desirable leadoff trait.

What made Rickey Henderson such a great leadoff hitter was that he could beat you multiple ways, with the longball being one of them. Can't think of a better way to start off a game myself.

by OmarMoreno18 on Dec 31, 2007 12:27 PM EST up reply actions

counterproductive?

I guess I can't figure out how a leadoff man hitting HRs is counterproductive.

McLouth is much better at getting on base. I don't know if I can watch if Morgan gets 300 ABs.

by hisjazziness on Dec 31, 2007 11:50 AM EST reply actions

counterproductive

OK, bad choice of words on my part. Shall we say less productive in the lead off spot, and more useful in maybe the second or third spot? Granted, a HR capable lead off guy is an added threat, but the sterotypical lead off is high in OBP and the best base thief on the team. Also, I agree, what better way to start a game than with a HR!

by 1eyedjack on Dec 31, 2007 12:41 PM EST reply actions

unwilling to write off morgan

His OBP was .359 last season in a small sample size (107 ABs), but it wasn't unexpected given his minor league OBPs of .375 and .379 in his 2006 and 2007 seasons. If Morgan can keep his BA around .300 and maintain his walk rate (8.2% minors, 7.75% majors) in the leadoff spot he'll be a slightly above average player.

Those are big ifs, especially the BA part, thus making Mclouth the less risky bet to be a productive center fielder because he has better patience and more power. I wouldn't consider just handing Morgan the leadoff spot and centerfield, but I am still unwilling to write him off as a potential league average/maybe slightly better leadoff man. I think Dejan hints that Huntington may feel the same way about Morgan as he mentions the Bucs may consider playing Mclouth (in RF/LF) and Morgan (CF) at the same time.

by Chad Bahamas on Dec 31, 2007 2:51 PM EST reply actions

Make them compete!

Best option is for them compete for the spot. I think one of Tracy's mistakes was handing the CF job to Duffy. If Tracy had made Duffy understand that unless you produce-you don't get to play; there would have been less issues with Duffy when he performed poorly in 2006. Duffy started slow and got upset when he was pulled from the lineup. Not too mature. Blamed it on Tracy/Manto changing his hitting style. Maybe that had an effect; but bottom line was that he did not do the job!

This is a theme with the Pirates over the last 16 years. Guys don't perform, but they still get playing time. I agree that you need to give guys a chance; but alot of guys were given way too many chances when they did not seem to play hard.

When Jack Wilson was benched in 2007; boy did he respond! He should not have needed that wake up call.

by zogger on Dec 31, 2007 5:34 PM EST reply actions

Why McLouth should start

McLouth will be 26 Opening Day next year and all season. Morgan turns 28 before we even get to the trade deadline. McLouth is almost a year-and-a-half younger, and is better.

by matskralc on Dec 31, 2007 9:00 PM EST reply actions

McLouth/Morgan

I don't agree with the Pirates' decision to basically bench McLouth the last month or so of the season. I would've like to have seen whether he could've sustained his production, which was surprising in a good way. The team benched one of its best producers too often for my tastes.

Given the Bucs' futility, I wouldn't mind seeing McLouth in left, Morgan in center and Pearce in right. Bay and Nady need to play, however, from a trade value perspective.

I must admit I am having the hardest time getting motivated and excited about the Pirates since I started following them in 1971.

Happ New Year Pirates fans!

by JimBibbySweat on Jan 1, 2008 4:10 PM EST reply actions

m and m

I don't think either one of them is the answer, given that McLouth is below average defensively and Morgan will probably have trouble getting on base. I'd start McLouth and use Morgan as a defensive replacement after Nate bats in the 7th or 8th inning.

by bolton on Jan 1, 2008 8:59 PM EST reply actions

Let's face facts

We can talk about McLouth vs. Morgan and their relative value, but look at the entire everyday lineup and try to find one player, outside of Sanchez, who would be among the top five players at his position in the NL. Most aren't even among the top half. That is the depressing truth.
But Happy New Year anyway. Bad baseball is better than no baseball and pitchers and catchers report in six weeks.

by NW Pirate fan on Jan 2, 2008 10:15 AM EST reply actions

Sanchez

Freddy was 9th in the NL in OPS at 2B in 2007 and at or near the bottom in most defensive measures. The early-season knee problem probably played a significant role in both, but it's debatable whether he's among the NL's top 5 at the position.

by WTM on Jan 2, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

I meant to add . . .

. . . that if any player on the team is likely to be in the top 5, excluding a return to form by Bay, it's McLouth. He ranked 4th in OPS in the NL among centerfielders with 300+ ABs.

by WTM on Jan 2, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

What do we know?

At this point I have seen no cogent analysis of what happened to Bay. Is he done, was it the knee, what? The other big offensive question is how to interpret other players' results from last year. As you noted, Sanchez did much better in the second half (4th in OPS). So did Wilson (2nd), McLouth (3rd), and Paulino (4th). What does this mean? For Wilson we can be confident that he's streaky. For the others?

It is almost comforting to see Bautista nestled toward the bottom in OPS among third basemen in both halves.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Jan 2, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

Who knows

but I would be very surprised if bay ever hit .300 or hit 30 home runs again

.280/.350/.830 ain't too bad for now, but even if he starts hot, actually--especially if he starts hot, he should be traded

by The New Guy on Jan 3, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

Some hope?

Remember that Morgan took up baseball relatively late in life, so he's a "young" 28 in terms of experience. I think it's worth giving him a shot to see what he can do when all the opponents still have something to play for.
I'd still like to see Nady get a look at 3B, although I don't know if any of the new management feels that way. Better for Nady's hamstring, plus I like Bautista much more as a valuable utility player than as an everyday starter.

by TPenaRules on Jan 2, 2008 4:25 PM EST reply actions

little hope

Jermaine Allensworth, Adrian Brown, Tike Redman, Chris Duffy...We have a history with CFs who tease, but can't hit for power and ultimately fail.

Morgan has never had a SLG above .400 in the minors. As someone noted above, he'll never draw walks if pitchers don't fear his ability to drive the ball. If he gets lucky, he might hit as well as Juan Pierre in a down year. If he's not, we're looking at someone who might match Brown's 2002 line: .216/.284/.298.

by bolton on Jan 2, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

OBP

You also have to take into account the fact that Morgan's mostly good OBPs in the minors were partly driven by some high HBP totals. (He used to wear very baggy jerseys.) I have no idea whether that's likely to continue in the majors, although I doubt it. His walk rates in the minors weren't anything special.

by WTM on Jan 3, 2008 5:47 PM EST up reply actions