Nutting Speaks

by WTM on Jan 16, 2008 12:19 PM EST Comment 10 comments

I'm surprised there hasn't been much comment yet on Dejan's interview with Bob Nutting.

I know the gut reaction for any Pirate fan is going to be hostility, for reasons that hardly require explanation. And at this stage it's all just talk, although it's far more candid talk than anything that's come out of the PNC offices since . . . well . . . ever.

But there's some worthwhile stuff in there.

For one, Nutting actually seems to understand the success cycle. He's absolutely right in saying there's no point blowing money on FAs now. The fact that most fans regard FA signings as a litmus test for ownership isn't a reason to get stampeded into repeating the Burnitz/Randa fiasco. Adding $20M or whatever to the payroll now won't help, except maybe in making the difference between 74 wins and 77. BFD. If--and that's a big "if"--Nutting means what he says, he's right in saying the time to increase payroll is when they're close to winning. They're not now. And he's (supposedly) willing to see NH trade vets for prospects, which DL probably didn't have leave to do, not that he would have.

I'm more skeptical about his notion that having better management will make the team better, and I think he's exaggerating the degree by which the team underperformed. He's justified, though, in believing that it did underperform.

He also seems to understand the fans' point of view better, maybe because he educated himself about something the fans already understood, that being the colossal incompetence that reigned in the PNC offices.

Of course, this all means nothing if Nutting doesn't walk the walk.

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commitment

I agree that McNutter's showing he understands at least the basics of the "success cycle" is the heart of the matter. He actually mentioned starting over and building talent from the ground up. Coonelly said pretty much the same thing in a Baseball Prospectus interview a couple of weeks ago. Asked how he would know the first year (2008) had been a success, he said (1) if the Pirates had more top talent in the organization (meaning the minors mostly) than they started the year with and (2) if the major league team was playing the game on the field the "right way". I thought it was a good answer, and it seemed clear that he was focused on replenishing the minors, however reluctant he and Huntington have been to say that outright.

But it looks like McNutter is wildly underestimating the size of the rebuilding task and how long it will take. They are not a contender and won't be any time soon. Lack of talent, not underachievement, is the major problem. Bay might have a better year, but Jack Flash won't hit .933 after the All-Star break as he did this year, supplemented by Phelps' 1.117. Duke may rebound, but Snell and/or Gorzellany may tail off. (I do think Maholm is going to step up this year.) Etc. Most glaringly, there's little or nothing coming up behind the current roster that gives hope of further improvement.

It's going to be interesting to watch McNutter as the size of the hole the Pirates have dug for themselves sinks in to him. As the cost of contending grows ever larger, we'll learn more about the extent of his commitment to winning.

by rogero on Jan 16, 2008 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A midwinter fantasy

So what would it take for the Pirates to perform strikingly better than last year, recognizing that most of the lineup will not be more productive than before? (Some will do better and some will do worse.) Two things. Bay getting back to an 890 OPS (from 745) and Duke pitching as well as 2006. Gonna happen? You've got me, and the thin starting pitching could lead to truly horrific outcomes. But this is not the time to think about all the ways things could go wrong. Spring training is on the horizon.

Just remember, Willy Taveras (not to mention Nyjer Morgan) had a higher OPS than Bay last year.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Jan 16, 2008 11:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

They underperformed their Pythag by a whopping two games last year, so they were bad on merit. Of course that means they underperformed even their underperformers, so I suppose with a few crucial bouncebacks even 75 wins is possible.

Yeah, I wrote that sarcastically.

by bucdaddy on Jan 17, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He is a smart businessman

I've never disputed that. It's his commitment to winning, and his general intentions toward the franchise that have been the problem for me. Is this encouraging? Yeah, it is. Can we say that this franchise is now on the right path. Not for a while. Their decisions come spring and summer on the what to do with overperforming players with limited upside and performing players with high upside, and of course the draft, will tell us much more than his interview.

by RichieHebner on Jan 17, 2008 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The draft

I'm hoping we'll get some info in next week's installment, which is scheduled to include interviews with Greg Smith and Rene Gayo. Specifically, I hope we'll get direct answers to questions like whether they'll take a Boras client, or draft a first-round talent who fell to round 5 and pay over slot, or whether they'll pay a six- or seven-figure bonus to get a top Latin Am. talent.

Of course, it'll still be just talk, but the more the org. claims it'll do these things, the harder it is to go much longer without doing them.

by WTM on Jan 17, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree on the draft

I agree that when the draft happens we will see if this team has changed at all. Right now it is mostly talk, though they are saying the right things. Once we see who or what they draft, that will tell us a great deal about the new direction of the team. If they make another slot type pick we know that it is going to be more of the same, if they don't then perhaps it is more than just talk.

http://hyzduhq.blogspot.com

by hyzduhq on Jan 18, 2008 12:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nutting may also have realized...

...it's possible to destroy a sports franchise and the Pirates were in fact accomplishing that end. The "Drive for 75" strategy generates entropy when it consistently fails, as it had under Littlefield.

by steve_z on Jan 18, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Aside from that . . .

. . . the welfare money will be drying up soon with the Yankees and Mets exempt due to expenses related to their new ballparks. Nutting may have realized that the Pirates will actually have to start attracting fans to keep the profits flowing.

by WTM on Jan 18, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All of that is true

and I think that any businessperson with an ounce of pride would get fed up at some point with being called incessantly a crook who employs bargain-basement incompetents because he cares far more about squeezing every last dollar out of the franchise than he does about the sensibilities of the people who purchase his product. At least one would hope that this is the case.

by RichieHebner on Jan 18, 2008 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully

Dejan did say in the Q/A that Nutting's attitude was very different from what he'd seen before. I certainly don't hold him blameless for the team's problems--for one thing, it's my understanding that it was the Nuttings who forced the Ramirez dump. But I don't think people give adequate weight to the fact that this guy, according to what we're told, knew nothing about baseball. You can argue that he should have educated himself sooner and I wouldn't dispute it. But for whatever reason he came in knowing little and probably taking McClatchy's and DL's word on things, and only found out gradually that they were running the franchise into the ground. And he probably also realized that there were very good reasons for the fans' hostility, something he probably hadn't understood before. That would account for the change in attitude.

None of this means he'll make a real investment in the team. They may still refuse to pay competitive bonuses in Latin America and so forth. We don't know yet. But I see no reason to doubt that he just didn't realize what horrible shape the baseball operations were in, hence DL being fired ahead of the announced schedule.

by WTM on Jan 18, 2008 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs