Community Projection: the 25-Man Roster, Opening Day

by Charlie on Oct 1, 2008 3:05 PM EDT Comment 21 comments

This is Azibuck's idea. The goal: predict what the Pirates' 25-man roster will look like on opening day by guessing who will be signed as a free agent, who will be traded, and who will win jobs. We'll revisit this post once the season starts.

Some links that may help:

WTM's Pirate Player Profiles

Cot's Contracts

Free Agents

Baseball Reference

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In other news,

Lanny F. is retiring after 33 seasons.

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST

by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 1, 2008 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not even

Lanyard could take it anymore. I guess he didn’t want to say the words “The Pirates reach 17 consecutive losing seasons.” I don’t blame him.

by EndlessMike on Oct 1, 2008 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

C Ryan Doumit
1B Adam LaRoche
2B Freddy Sanchez
SS Adam Everett
3B Andy LaRoche
OF Nate McLouth
OF Andrew McCutchen
OF Brandon Moss

BN Robinzon Diaz
BN Brian Bixler
BN Russ Branyan
BN Juan Rivera
BN Nyjer Morgan

SP Paul Maholm
SP Ian Snell
SP Zach Duke
SP Tom Gorzelanny
SP Jeff Karstens

RP Matt Capps
RP John Grabow
RP Jorge Julio
RP Tyler Yates
RP Ross Ohlendorf
RP Sean Burnett
RP Craig Hansen

Moves: Jack Wilson to the Dodgers for Ivan DeJesus and James McDonald; Everett, Branyan and Rivera signed to cheap major-league deals; Julio signs a minor league deal, frustrates everybody during Spring Training, and still makes the team because he throws hard and the Pirates need relievers. Hansen makes the big-league team; nobody knows why. Daniel McCutchen fills the first vacancy and pitches pretty well.

by Charlie on Oct 1, 2008 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually, DeJesus and McDonald is a bit much for Wilson… but I wouldn’t put anything past the Dodgers.

by Charlie on Oct 1, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jack to Dodgers

It seems so logical. I think they, and McDonald, have to be targets.

by azibuck on Oct 1, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not crazy about Ivan

Younger than Hu, but even less power, if that’s possible. Though of course my opinion don’t matter to DeJesus.

McDonald impressed the hell out of me when I saw him at the game on 9/17. He was working around 90, nothing special, but he had a nice relaxed delivery and I don’t think he made the catcher move his glove even once. He made our guys look stupid, on a day when none of the other Dodgers could get anybody out. I think he’s legit.

by Vlad on Oct 1, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

was that a hunt for red october reference just before the big lebowski one? nice.

by scoreboard on Oct 1, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Glad you caught it.

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2008 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think D. McCuthchen...

could have a nice year in 09 as well. He throws strikes and that’s something we didn’t see a lot of last year. I like the Jorge Julio pick up. It just seems like a fit in the Batista/Yates mold…hard throwers; lots of walks. I don’t think we would get Rivera and sit him on the bench though would we? I thought he had some value…not sure we could get him cheap. I know the Angels fans think he should be a full timer. Anyway, interesting picks.

by Slick1 on Oct 4, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2009

Starters:
C — Doumit, this seems pretty certain.
1B — Adam LaRoche, obviously could be moved, but I don’t think he will be.
2B — Fred, I don’t see a market for him.
SS — Luis Cruz, I’m thinking of a Fanpost regarding SS.
3B — Andy Laroche, they may declare a competition, but he’ll have to hit under .100 in the spring not to get the nod.
LF — Nyjer
CF — Nate
RF — Mientkiewicz, STL starter likely to be a righty on Opening Day, and I think DougM will be back.

Bench:
Pearce — doubt there will be much interest, but the org seems pretty down on him and he could be thrown into a deal. If he stays, he’ll get the short end of a Nyjer and/or Doug platoon.
Rob Diaz — I think I’d rather have Chavez, and if Diaz has an option that may happen.
Bixler — cheap MI. I think he sucks, but he’ll probably get the nod.
Nick Punto — up-down cycle will be down next year, but this seems like the kind of pickup they’ll make.
Craig Wilson — gets a ST invite and makes good. Will tutor Pearce on Being Craig Wilson.

Rotation:
Maholm
Snell
Duke
Ohlendorf — probably a mistake, but I think they’ll give him a long rope
Gorzelanny — because of lack of options. I doubt he regains 2007 form, but I don’t think his stuff plays out of the pen.

Bullpen:
Capps
Karstens — I doubt his stuff plays anywhere long term. Probably will get a chance to start at some point.
Hansen — they’ll give him lots of chances too.
Burnett
Jesse Chavez
Daniel McCutchen — throws strikes, many leave the park but that’s not a concern right now.
Yates

There are probably at least a dozen reclamation projects that could take 1-3 of the bullpen spots but I instead of guessing an obscure name I just went with in-house guys.

Obviously, I think Grabow and Jack Wilson get dealt. I think Brandon Moss is almost certain to start the season on the DL, regardless of the success of the surgery. The rehab, done properly, will just take longer than that. I don’t expect to see him in Pittsburgh before June.

by azibuck on Oct 1, 2008 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good projections here too.

I see you do have Jack and Grabow getting dealt. Where do you think we trade them and what is your prjected return?

by Slick1 on Oct 4, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching

So many questions about starting anf relief going into spring training…. I want to see how the former Yanks do in Spring. How Doumatrait is feeling. Maybe Meek might make the team.

by EndlessMike on Oct 1, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

25-man roster

first the off-season moves: Grabow, Jack, Freddy and Adam LaRoche do not get traded (NH asks for too much, and decides to wait until the deadline again; Paulino and Bautista are gone or in the minors; Michaels signs a 1-year contract for $750k; Minky signs with a better team; Chavez, Gomez, and Rivas are not pursued. the Pirates sign a couple of veterans to serve as bench players (some combination of Branyan, Hinske, Mench, Punto, and maybe even Shawn Green).

Moss and Dumatrait are not ready by spring training, and open the season on the DL.

rotation: Maholm / Snell / Karstens / Duke / D. McCutchen (Gorzelanny opens in AAA)

bullpen: Capps / Grabow / Ohlendorf / Burnett / Yates / Hansen / Salas

starting lineup: Morgan / Sanchez / McLouth / Doumit / Ad. LaRoche/ Pearce / An. LaRoche / Wilson

bench: Diaz / Cruz / Michaels / veteran #1 / veteran #2 (see above)

by humbucker on Oct 2, 2008 10:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You know...

I actually think your projections could be pretty damn close. I think you are probably right about Freddy, Adam and Grabow but I do think Jack will get traded. Again, I can see Michaels coming back but Minky gone. Very interesting. We will see!

by Slick1 on Oct 4, 2008 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alright...

We need to stop the talk of Jack to the Dodgers in any package that includes McDonald. That is not going to happen. McDonald has proven that he is currently a valuable member of the Dodgers and no way the trade him for Jack. I could see them resigning Furcal before that happens. We are starting to sound like Yankees fans who think they should be able to trade Melky Cabrera for Albert Pujols. I could see Jack going to a team for a “former” top prospect who has lost a little hype; like say a J. Egbert out of a Chigago and a A ball pitcher with upside. I believe that is about the best package we can expect after the season Wilson has had. I predicting now that that trade goes downl. Other trade(s) I will predict is Sanchez and Capps to the Indians for Shoppach and a low level pitcher with upside like a Rondon. The Bucs will in turn deal Doumit to the Red Sox for Bowden, Reddick and Bourbont. Snell and Laroche will be dealt to the Yankees for Cano, Kennedy, Aceves and Kontos. And Duke and Grabow will be dealt to the Braves for Lillibridge, Rorbough and Cody Johnson. The starting lineup will look like this: Morgan (LF), Cano (2b), McClouth (CF), Shoppach ©, Moss (RF), Laroche (3b), Pearce (1b), Liilibridge (ss). McCutchen will be up by the all star break moving Morgan to the bench. Reddick, Tabata and Alvarez will join the team in 2010. The starting rotation will be Maholm, Gorzo, Ohlendorf, Karstens and one of McCutchen, Dumatrait, Barthemeir or Bowden. The pen will be the usual Yates, Salas, Meek, Beam, Chavez, Sanchez, Burnett and one of the losers of the 5th man spot. There may be a FA acuisition in there as well whether it be in the rotation or the pen but most likley it will be in the pen. That’s my two cents. Either way, we will finish in last place again next year biut the future will look much brighter.

by Slick1 on Oct 4, 2008 3:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Possibilities

5 steps to “Building a Championship Caliber team”:

1.) Hire Rick Peterson
2.) Sign Mark Prior; see what Peterson can do with him.
3.) Pocket remaining budget for years where we contend, don’t spend it on worthless players (Burnitz/Randa)
4.) Call up Alvarez, his clock is already ticking
5.) Execute the following trades:

Maholm, McLouth, Grabow, Paulino to Yankees for Austin Jackson, Phil Hughes + 2 prospects

Doumit, Adam LaRoche, Capps and cash(1-2MM, fish love money) to Marlins for Jeremy Hermida and Mike Jacobs

Sanchez, Wilson, Neil Walker, Moss to Tigers for Porcello + prospect (we’d probably be getting a bad deal, but a true ace in our system would be great.

Snell, Grabow, Dumatrait, Pearce to Rangers for Saltalamachia (or Teagarden) + Elvis Andrus

Opening Day Lineup with estimated salaries:

C- Salty/Teagarden (1M)
1B- Jacobs (4M)
2B- Andy LaRoche (400k)
3B- Pedro Alvarez (3M)
SS- Andrus (400k)
LF- Morgan (400k)
CF- McCutchen (800k)
RF- Hermida (3M)

UTIL- Diaz, Mientkiewicz, Cruz, Jason Michaels (5M)

P- Hughes (500k)
P- Porcello (1.5M)
P- Gorzellany (400k)
P- McCutchen (400k)
P- Mark Prior (1.8 M)

RP- Burnett (1M)
RP- Davis (1M)
RP- Ohlendorf (400k)
RP- Bautista (400k)
RP- Yates (800k)
RP- Beam (1M)
CL- Hansen (800k)

(Keep Barthmaier and Karstens in AAA to start season)
Estimated Payroll 25-30 MM; put remaining 25 MM into future off-season moves (AKA starting pitching/ Japanese players)

by H2O on Oct 5, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

H20...

I like where your head is at in terms of a total rebuild. I too think that is the direction we should take. But, your trades are very lopsided and not in our direction. I think we could do much better than your suggested return, especially the Maholm/McClouth deal. Definitely not enough coming our way. The return for Doumit and Laroche is pretty weak too althouhg I don’t think all 4 of the players you mentioned in the Tigers deal would entice them to trade Porcello. It would be nice to have a young ACE like him in our system. If only he were available when we drafter that year. Oh wait…DAMN YOU LITTLEFIELD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Slick1 on Oct 5, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alvarez's clock is not ticking

His clock doesn’t tick until he’s on the active (25-man) roster with Pittsburgh.

“tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick BOOM! dynamite, Boom Boom! dynamite!”

by azibuck on Oct 6, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or the 60-day DL.

Not likely, but I’m just being a completist.

by Vlad on Oct 6, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would you trade for Francoeur?

You guys are pretty knowledgeable and fair in your trade appraisals, so I was wondering if Francoeur was worth pursuing.

He’s not 25 till next season and has had a couple of good seasons, but a season in ‘08 which wasn’t so hot. Is it a case of buying low???? Rumors are the Braves are willing to move him, but are looking for a starter in return and I think I’ve seen Snell’s name pop up. I’d much rather trade Duke, but that might not be enough.

Any replies?

by ETNBuc on Oct 6, 2008 7:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Francoeur...

…is going to go the way of Juan Samuel, and as such, I’d probably pass. He’s got serious problems with his approach and skill set, so despite his athleticism, I don’t think he’s ever going to be a real asset in the lineup.

by Vlad on Oct 9, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs