Community Projection Review: Tom Gorzelanny

PLAYER POS. COMMUNITY ZiPS ACTUAL
Tom Gorzelanny SP 141 IP, 103 K, 49 BB, 4.15 ERA 184 IP, 128 K, 61 BB, 4.16 ERA 105 IP, 67 K, 70 BB, 6.66 ERA

The community was considerably better than ZiPS here--the projection system's lack of knowledge of anything that isn't a number worked against it. Based on Jim Tracy's abuse of Gorzelanny down the stretch in 2007, two guessers predicted Gorzelanny wouldn't pitch an inning in 2008, and others predicted he'd pitch a shortened season. The best prediction went to Bolton, who said Gorzelanny would pitch 120 innings with 76 strikeouts, 52 walks, and a 4.50 ERA. That's over two runs off in the ERA department, but all the guesses about ERA were in the threes or fours. I'm not sure why nobody who guessed Gorzelanny would have a shortened season didn't also predict a major ERA hike, but our group projection probably would've been a lot better if somebody would've just pointed that out, or if the folks who bet Gorzelanny wouldn't pitch at all had provided similarly pessimistic ERAs, just for kicks. 

In any case, Gorzelanny's season was a terrible disappointment but not really a surprise. I'm nearly certain that Pirates.com is going to write a story in February expressing optimism about Gorzelanny's 2009 season, in which Gorzelanny confesses that his arm hurt throughout the year. Whatever happens, though, I hope Gorzelanny's resting and that he can come back at his full 2007 strength. I doubt he will, but I guess we can hold out hope.

That was one heck of a parting gift from the Littlefield/Tracy regime, by the way. Thanks, guys.

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