Looking Ahead: Pirates Pick Fourth in Next Year's Draft

by Charlie on Oct 5, 2008 7:14 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

Via Primer, the Seattle Times has a nice writeup on next year's draft. It's from the Mariners' perspective, but since the Mariners will have the second pick and the Pirates will have the fourth, it has relevance for the Pirates as well.

The take-home message: avoid pitchers with early picks:

...[P]itchers taken with the No. 1 pick have been especially erratic. Here's the complete list; have fun picking out the franchise-changers: David Clyde, Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore, Tim Belcher, Andy Benes, Ben McDonald, Taylor, Wilson, Kris Benson, Anderson, Bullington, Luke Hochevar, David Price...

Jim Callis, executive editor of Baseball America, termed Strasburg "head and shoulders above the 2009 draft class right now, much like David Price was in 2007. But that doesn't mean the Mariners can't get a tremendous player at No. 2.

"After Price went off the board [to Tampa Bay], guys like Mike Moustakas, Matt Wieters, Matt LaPorta, Madison Bumgarner and Jason Heyward were still on the board, and all of those guys look like they're going to be stars, too."

Ranking the next group of prospects after Strasburg, Callis mentioned USC shortstop Grant Green ("supposed to be a cross between Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria") and North Carolina first baseman/outfielder Dustin Ackley ("the best pure hitter in the draft and a possible center fielder.")

Of the five likely stars Callis mentions from the '07 draft, four are hitters. As good as Price looks so far, I'd probably rather have Wieters right now, and Moustakas and Heyward aren't far behind. (Side note: Bumgarner, if he stays healthy, could just be ridiculous. His stats this year are just off the charts. It's a shame the Pirates didn't pick him, in a way; he was born in Hickory, and if the Pirates had drafted him he would have played for the Crawdads this year.)

So, as exciting as Stephen Strasburg looks so far, the Pirates should be glad to take a potentially excellent hitter instead. WTM has said for years that teams should avoid pitchers early in the draft, and history agrees with him on that. Strasburg may turn out to be the star he now appears to be, but he may not.

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I like Strasburg a lot...

but man it would be nice to see Green or Ackley in the system as well. We have two second round picks next year and I think we would be in a nice position to add a couple of impact pitchers in those spots. So I know a lot can happen between now and the draft next year but if the draft were tomorrow who do you all think we would be drafting?

by Slick1 on Oct 5, 2008 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Could be fun. Boras represents both Green and Ackley.

There’s a HS CF some people think is the best position player in the draft, but I can’t remember his name.

by WTM on Oct 5, 2008 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Donovan Tate?

That’s the only HS CF I’ve heard anything about so far.

by IAPiratesFan on Oct 5, 2008 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Must be...

Tate is a CF out of Georgia. He’s the only one I’ve heard so far as well. I can’t wait to see if the Alvarez faisco will affect future negotiations as WTM has alluded to. Should be interesting to say the least.

by Slick1 on Oct 5, 2008 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Painful

to be talking about the draft and wondering “what if …” McClatchy had pulled out and Littlefield got canned a year earlier? We’d have Wieters AND Alvarez in the system and could think about dangling Doumit as trade bait.

by bucdaddy on Oct 5, 2008 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’ve thought about that, and it is depressing. The flipside, though, is thinking about what the system might look like next year if the Pirates pony up for another good first round pick.

by Charlie on Oct 6, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Next year should be pretty tasty for us.

Especially if we’re aggressive with our extra #2 (and don’t bleed any picks for FA signings).

by Vlad on Oct 6, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With this being a year for college pitchers, you can make a good argument for taking three with those early picks. If we get real lucky, maybe two of them reach the majors in the next 2-3 years. Much as I don’t like taking pitchers early, the system is so weak in pitching that something just has to be done about it.

by WTM on Oct 6, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Draft

It’s fun to think about, but don’t get too rigid in your rankings this early in the game. There’s plenty of time for a guy to come from nowhere into the top of the first (Kershaw in 2006) or fall from top-pick consideration out of the first round entirely (Burgess in 2007).

by Vlad on Oct 6, 2008 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs