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Rule 5 Draft: Who Do You Want?

 

 

Here's the best rundown I've seen of the upcoming Rule 5 draft so far, and here's a long list of players teams protected. Based on what I've seen, the player I want, and a player I think Neal Huntington will give serious consideration if the player is available, is Rays reliever Eduardo Morlan.

Keep in mind that I'm no expert on most of these minor leaguers; I've seen clips of some of them and read up on all of them, but that's all. Also, I'm relying on USS Mariner's list and a couple other sources; I didn't go hunting for other Rule 5-eligible players I hadn't heard about elsewhere.

Obviously, what the Pirates need most is everyday players and starting pitchers. But everyday players are very difficult to take in the Rule 5 draft, because the best ones are nearly always protected and because in order to keep a Rule 5 pick, he has to stay on your 25-man roster the entire year (unless he gets hurt or fake-hurt, in which case you can stash him on the DL or in the minors for a while). It's very difficult to stash an unready player on your bench for an entire year, unless he's exceptionally versatile or nicely complements a player you already have. Of course it's possible a team would leave a very talented and nearly-ready position player unprotected but, Dave Littlefield aside, this rarely happens.

This year, the best position player available that I've seen  is catcher James Skelton of the Tigers. He's worth considering because he's not old and he looks like he might become a plus hitter if he stays behind the plate, but his defense is apparently not very good, and he's pretty small, so his power may not come along. Also, he's a lefty, so he wouldn't really complement Ryan Doumit. First baseman Kala Ka'aihue of the Braves is another possibility--he showed great control of the strike zone as a 23-year-old at Class AA this year, but he probably doesn't hit for enough power, and it's hard to hide a first baseman for an entire year.

Pitchers are a different story, because a flawed pitcher might be able to have success in a major league bullpen. Starting pitchers can be good picks because you can stash them in your bullpen; this is what the Twins did with Johan Santana, for example. 

The most interesting starting pitchers I've seen so far are Chuck Lofgren of the Indians and Donald Veal of the Cubs. They're both pretty rough--former top prospects who have flopped as they've moved up the chain. Lofgren had a disaster of a year at Class AA Akron. The Indians are having him relieve in the Arizona Fall League, and that has gone terribly, as he now has a 32.14 ERA there, with 18 walks against six strikeouts. I'd only want the Pirates to take him if their scouts spotted something they thought could be fixed, and even then I doubt it's worth it; Lofgren doesn't have blow-away stuff (though his curveball isn't bad) and may have succeeded at the lower levels in part because he was craftier than the hitters he was facing. Given his problems finding the strike zone this year, I don't think I'd want the Pirates to mess with him.

Veal, too, has control problems--his walks went from bad to worse as he repeated Class AA in 2008. Like Lofgren, he has struggled mightily as a reliever in the AFL. Also like Lofgren, his fastball is decent but not great, but he has a good curveball. One potential advantage is that Veal is apparently a pretty bright guy who might be able to make adjustments if placed in a big league bullpen, but his mechanics sound like they're a house of cards:

Well, number one was trusting my stuff. Some of my pitching coaches used to say, "Just trust your stuff and don't try to overdo 'cause you've got plenty. You don't need to do more than you're capable of."

And then number two is just slowing myself down. Sometimes I rush to the plate . . . if I get a couple of quick outs, I'll start rushing to get that last out real fast--getting ahead of myself. Then, once I start rushing, everything gets out of whack from the very beginning.

Again, if the Pirates' scouts see something about Veal they think can be fixed, great. But if not, I'd avoid him.

That leaves relievers, and of those, the one I like the best by far is Morlan. You may remember that the Rays acquired Morlan from the Twins in the Delmon Young / Matt Garza deal. He put up Playstation numbers in the low minors in 2006 and 2007, then held his own in Class AA this year. (And his numbers might have been even better if he hadn't struggled with shoulder issues early in the season; he was terrific down the stretch.) He's also been dynamite so far in Puerto Rico winter ball. He also has good enough stuff to be a valuable reliever, and he may be good enough to contribute right away. There's a decent chance he'd stick the entire year.

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Ka'aihue's father...

…played for us in the minors for several years.

by Vlad on Nov 22, 2008 10:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Braves have another pseudo-interesting 1B eligible, too.

Ernesto Mejia. Not much about him on the web, but he had a nice little season at Myrtle last year. Error total suggest his D is kinda rough, though, and teams almost never pull/keep corner players from that low in the minors. K/BB is a concern, too. But still… 73 XBH last year. That doesn’t grow on trees.

by Vlad on Nov 23, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2008 zMLE

.224/.260/.384

Sounds like Brad Eldred. :P

by Vlad on Nov 23, 2008 12:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah. Wow. 47 doubles to go with all those homers. Definitely a prospect, but the kind that might be destroyed by a Rule 5 season. His strike zone judgment has a long way to go; I’m not sure how he could possibly hit in the majors right now.

by Charlie on Nov 23, 2008 2:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Eric Campbell?

Second-round pick in ’04, 22, righty-hitting 3B, spent 2008 at A+ Myrtle Beach. Good power (19 HR in 330 AB, .224 ISO), good contact rate, nice positive trend in walk rates, runs fairly well. Has good hands and arm on defense but not great range. Some reported attitude issues (ranging from low effort to space cadet), no real way to know how true that is.

3B isn’t exactly a position of system need right now, but I think the kid can play. He might have the bat for corner OF down the road if LaRoche/Walker/Alvarez seals off 3B.

by Vlad on Nov 22, 2008 10:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Heaven forbid we should miss out on another year of Chris Gomez.

by WTM on Nov 22, 2008 11:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2008 zMLE

.217/.282/.379

The perils of taking guys from A+, I guess. The regression is pretty brutal.

by Vlad on Nov 23, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Campbell

It’s true…..

Check out my blog at thoughtsofrs@blogspot.com

by Count Vertigo on Nov 23, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Daniel Mayora?

Venezuelan kid from the Rockies’ system, 22-year-old RHB, spent 2008 at A+ Modesto. Has some pop for a MIF (43 2B+3B in 2007, 39 in 2008), and has a nice glove at 2B – mostly got moved off SS for reason of system depth, and might still be able to hack it there. Average runner, swing’s a little long, and coming all the way from A+ we might have to work a bit to hide his bat.

by Vlad on Nov 23, 2008 12:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

2008 zMLE

.230/.282/.337

If we’re hiding him as a defensive replacement at 2B/SS, the bat may not matter as much.

by Vlad on Nov 23, 2008 12:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

.218/.267/.311

those are luis rivas’ numbers from last year. so… upgrade?

by johnnycuff on Nov 23, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brad Kilby?

25th-round pick out of San Jose State in 2005, 25-year-old LHRP, spent ‘08 at AAA Sacramento. FB around 90 with some run, good-but-inconsistent slider, solid results for the PCL in ’08. Could be a decent situational guy right away, and I don’t trust Burnett to be our #2 pen LHP next year.

by Vlad on Nov 23, 2008 12:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

2008 zMLE

5.63 ERA, 39 K/29 BB/12 HR in 64 IP.

Pretty ugly – maybe scratch him, I guess. He’s not doing well in winter ball, either. If we pick someone who’ll get beat up, I’d want more upside in return.

by Vlad on Nov 23, 2008 12:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Vlad

What’s the MLE for Morlan?

I also see that he spent time on the DL with a sore shoulder, but that was early in the season. It might explain the dip from the Playstation numbers though. I’d take the chance anyway, but if he only needed rest, he could be very good very soon.

by azibuck on Nov 23, 2008 10:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

zMLE for Morlan:

5.60 ERA in 45 IP, with 27 K, 17 BB, and 9 HR.

by Vlad on Nov 24, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pirate Roster Full

I don’t think we can choose anyone as well currently have a full 40 man roster. You have to have an opening to select someone, as that player selected in the Rule V is automatically added to the 40 man roster of the selecting team.

The deadline to finalize the 40 man was on November 20, and the Pirates filled up their roster, thus disqualifying them from selecting a Rule V player. Barring any draft day trade, I don’t believe they can add any of these players.

http://hyzduhq.blogspot.com

by hyzduhq on Nov 23, 2008 12:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

They can open up space between now and then. There are plenty of candidates to come off the roster.

by WTM on Nov 23, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What WTM said. All they have to do is remove a player.

by Charlie on Nov 23, 2008 8:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is correct

It’s only the deadline to add players – you can remove guys at any time. Actually, now that I think about it, you can even still add players, as long as they come from outside the organization (free agents, waiver claims, etc.)

by Vlad on Nov 24, 2008 7:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The non-tender deadline is the day after the Rule 5 draft. Raul Chavez and Jason Davis are both eligible for arbitration. I’ll be amazed (and seriously annoyed) if the Bucs don’t dispose of them one way or another prior to the non-tender deadline to avoid getting locked into arbitration with them.

by WTM on Nov 24, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What's the Bucs draft position?

Is the Tampa Bay reliever likely to go first?

by RDV across the sea on Nov 23, 2008 9:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

4th

The Nats are first, and the Mariners and Padres next. Jim Bowden loves to look for talent under rocks, so the Nats are a cinch to take somebody. I don’t know about the other two. I would think Morlan and Whelan would be top candidates to go early.

by WTM on Nov 23, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but the Rule 5 draft is so unpredictable every year. It’s definitely possible they’d both be available.

by Charlie on Nov 23, 2008 10:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Marvin Lowrance?

7th-round pick out of a California high school in ’04, by the Nats back when they were still the Expos, split ’08 about 60-40 between A+ Potomac and AA Harrisburg. Lefty power bat, 23, plays OK in both OF corners, good BB/K numbers for a power guy. Interview with him here, in which he comes across pretty well.

zMLE is .213/.280/.358 for Potomac, and .235/.298/.389 for Harrisburg.

by Vlad on Nov 24, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sickels likes him.

Gave him a C+ and a #16 ranking, with the comment “For some reason I like this guy. Nice power.
”http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/21/667552/washington-nationals-top-2">Link.

by Vlad on Nov 24, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lorenzo Cain?

17th-round draft pick by the Brewers in ‘04, signed as a draft & follow that April, 22, R/R. May or may not be eligible, depending on exactly what day he signed (if it was April 12 or earlier, he’s protected – they didn’t announce the signing until the 25th). Tools guy, good speed, some power/power potential, solid defender in CF or plus defender in a corner. Really tore it up in the AFL. K rate spiked a bit last year, which is a concern.

zMLE of .226/.278/.348 for A+ Brevard County, .221/.281/.373 for AA Huntsville. Jack Z was really big on him, so if he IS eligible, he may not make it past the Mariners.

by Vlad on Nov 24, 2008 4:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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