Winter Meetings, Day 3: Pirates Approach Key Players About Extensions
by Charlie on Dec 10, 2008 11:58 AM EST
68 comments
The Pirates have approached Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit about extensions, the Post-Gazette reports.
The Bucs signed three players in similar situations (Matt Capps, Freddy Sanchez and Ian Snell) to extensions last Spring, and two of those players were a complete mess in 2008. But the terms of these kinds of contracts for pre-arbitration players are so favorable that the Pirates really need to keep taking chances with them. Snell's contract, in particular, is great--yes, he was terrible in 2008, but the Pirates are only on the hook for $7.25 million in 2009 and 2010 combined, and then if Snell returns to form, the Bucs have two option years for what should be reasonable prices. If the Pirates can sign McLouth, Maholm or Doumit to contracts along these lines, then I'm all for it even though they're all coming off unexpectedly good years.
UPDATE: Vlad notices this article, which says that the Cardinals might pursue Matt Capps as they search for a closer.
UPDATE II: The Post-Gazette says the Bucs have talked to the Marlins about shortstop Robert Andino, perhaps in a trade for Ronny Paulino. It's hard to tell for sure because the Marlins kept promoting Andino even though he never hit anywhere, but he probably can't hit at all. I expect that when you trade someone like Paulino, you can't expect much in return.
UPDATE III: This isn't directly Winter Meetings-related, but one blogger argues that McLouth is worth about $11.5 million per year. (Via Primer.)
UPDATE IV: The Palm Beach Post confirms the P-G's reporting about Andino and also mentions that the trade may be Andino for Paulino. The Post reports that Andino was signed by Marc DelPiano, who was recently hired by the Pirates as a special assistant to Neal Huntington. Andino also worked with former Marlins infield coach Perry Hill, another recent Pirates hire.
By the way, if you're inclined to be intrigued by Andino's .287/.356/.497 line at Class AAA this year, keep in mind that Albuquerque is the best place to hit in all of minor league baseball and that Andino had a 1.145 OPS at home and a .501 OPS on the road in AAA this year.
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Extensions
I would love it if we could get decent extensions on all three of those guys. I think the Snell signing is still gonna be one of the biggest values on the entire team if its not already. he really came around at the end of last season I thought
BRING BACK TIKE REDMAN
by omar moreno on Dec 10, 2008 9:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fair warning
I agree that long-terming all these guys is a good idea.
We should temper our expectations, however. THT had a couple posts up in the past week or so that noted:
1) Doumit had a high BABIP and they ranked him one of the luckiest hitters in MLB. He’s almost sure to fall off, but that would mean he’s still pretty good.
2) McLouth had a remarkable season, he was above average in virtually every offensive category and for a guy to do that across the board is rather rare. Stands to reason he’ll slip too, though still be pretty good
On the other hand, both of them are young enough to maybe have a little more upside, which would be … WOW.
Too bad they’re being wasted in this popgun lineup.
(Do they even make popguns anymore?)
by bucdaddy on Dec 10, 2008 10:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Intruiging RonPaul offer
Andino could be a worth while pick up. His isolated power in AAA the past 3 years has increase from .108 to .150 to .210 last year. He’s still relatively young at 25. I’m inclined to give that guy some consistent at bats to see if he can adjust to MLB pitching.
Anyone got a report on his fielding?
by Chad Bahamas on Dec 10, 2008 12:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Andino
His glove is terrific. He’s quick and fast and can help you on the bases. And he’s 1 1/2 years younger than Bixler. But he doesn’t walk and he’s not going to hit enough to help on offense. Still, I’d rather have him than Ronny Ballgame.
by rogero on Dec 10, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where do I sign?
I think he’d be a good pick up which would free NH to deal Wilson without having to worry about getting a SS in return. Andino may not amount to much, but I doubt he’d be worse than Bixler, and he still has some upside.
by Chad Bahamas on Dec 10, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll Stick With Bixler ...
over Andino.
by thegunner on Dec 10, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Before you get too excited about the ISOP, keep in mind that Albuquerque is a crazy hitting environment.
by Charlie on Dec 10, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2008 zMLE for Andino:
.222/.286/.351.
Yeah, that’s Albuquerque for you.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about the improvement?
I’m really asking — does it mean anything? His 2nd year at AAA was pretty good, and the short time spent there in 2008 makes it look like he mastered the level, esp. the K and BB rates. He got no consistent playing time with Florida. I have no doubt he probably wouldn’t be very good next year, but for a few years after that, and the way his glove sounds… yeah, it sounds like a decent return for Paulino.
by azibuck on Dec 10, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes and no.
He did improve, but then again, guys who repeat a level are supposed to improve, and it’s not like he was killing the league.
I guess the short answer is that it’s better than not improving.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have to take issue with the idea that he mastered the level. Go look at Albuquerque’s team stats. It’s one of these crazy Pacific Coast League places like Las Vegas or Tucson or Salt Lake City where everyone puts up good numbers. Andino put up a 1.145 OPS at home and .501 on the road.
by Charlie on Dec 10, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Andino for Paulino
I’d trade Ronny for Andino because it makes Wilson more tradable. Then I’d trade Jack if I could get any single prospect whom I thought had a decent chance to help the team at any position in a couple of years. That’s more important than any role Paulino is likely to play going forward.
Forget about trying to get back a shorstop in a Wilson trade (the Pirates aren’t going to get one for Jack that will make a difference anyway). Andino and Bixler may be enough to hold down SS for a couple of years, during which the Buccos aren’t going to be competitive anyway. Andino in particular , who’ll only be 25 in ’09, has the kind of glove that can really help Maholm and the other pitchers as they mature.
by rogero on Dec 10, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would think the opposite
If there was another SS option for the Pirates (albeit a sketchy one in Andino), don’t you think that decreases their leverage?
Same thing with Eckstein. If they signed him for $3M for one year, it would be obvious they are going to get rid of one of the other two guys. Wouldn’t you offer less for Wilson if you were another team at that point?
At least now they can keep up the front that they are fine going into 2009 with Wilson and don’t really “need” to trade him.
For the record, it would be ok for them to go into ’09 with Wilson, but that would only happen b/c they are so underwhelmed with the offers that they think they can do better at the deadline. But I believe Huntington would be very disappointed if that were the case, b/c he really wants to move him.
by lost_zero on Dec 10, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
$3M isn't an insurmountable obstacle
Teams spend that much on backups all the time. And they could spin it in the media as an indirect challenge to Little LaRoche (with Eckstein playing 2B and Freddy moving back to 3B).
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
$3M
$3M isn’t a lot for a backup…..for most teams.
But if you were following the Pirates, do you think they would be shelling out $3M for him to backup two of the more expensive players on the roster?
If I’m another team, it would be fairly transparent that their intention would be to play Eckstein if they are going to pay him.
I’m not opposed to $3M for him, necessarily. But as a backup it doesn’t make any sense. Does it?
The Pirates are much more likely to throw $1M to someone to backup (think Gomez, Josh wilson, Doug M., etc in past years) in the infield. And, in this environment/recession, you may see a few more bargains in that price range than you may have in the past.
by lost_zero on Dec 10, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry for re-post...
but my main point is that I would sign Jack’s replacement after Jack is gone….thus keeping up the ruse that they are content with Jack starting at SS in 09
by lost_zero on Dec 10, 2008 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see a problem with it.
Sooner or later, we’re going to have to start using the same valuation scale as every other non-Marlins team in the league. The Reds or Brewers wouldn’t think twice about paying $3M for a good backup at an area of organizational weakness, so why should we?
And as far as trade leverage goes, I already mentioned the fig leaf of having he and LaRoche compete for one starting spot, a-la Castillo and Bautista a few years back.
I would have more concern with trying to get a Jack trade in place, and then having the potential replacement either sign with someone else or jack up his price once he realizes that we need him.
by Vlad on Dec 11, 2008 9:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stop splitting hairs!
Sheesh wow, thanks.
by azibuck on Dec 10, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Andino
Apparently Andino is out of options—he’s played parts of 4 seasons with the Marlins already. Probably NH is considering whether to wait and see if the Marlins non-tender him.
by rogero on Dec 10, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seems pretty likely.
I remember reading something last year about them being upset with him over something or other, and he’s sure not forcing his way onto the field with performance.
I’d rather hold Ronny for now and see whether we can get anything more interesting in six months.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it’s ridiculous. Fans in Albuquerque have to look at him and see the second coming of Hanley Ramirez or something.
by Charlie on Dec 10, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols at home, Andy LaRoche on the road
or thereabouts :)
by lost_zero on Dec 10, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Andino doesn't do it for me.
Nobody would love to see Paulino become someone else’s problem more than I would, but I don’t think Andino is anything more than waiver-bait. We got a similar guy (Ray Olmedo) on waivers last season, and we could probably do it again this year if we wanted.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Capps...
for Jamie Garcia and Daryl Jones. : )
by joegonzo on Dec 10, 2008 2:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Capps
Salutations,
I realize that I may in the minority here, but I don’t think Capps is an above average closer. I hope that I am proven wrong over time because he seems like a hell of guy, but this team is going to suck and suck bad in 2008 with or without a “proven” closer. If you can get GOOD (not fair, but good) value for him, take it.
Good day.
by Uncle Nate on Dec 10, 2008 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
whoops...
I meant 2009. It gets tough discerning one forgetable year from all of the others.
Good day.
by Uncle Nate on Dec 10, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's above-average
Career 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP – that’s not bad. He’s not, however, a top 10-type guy for whom you’d empty out the farm, though he does get a boost value-wise from still being cheap.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A few Andino projections:
Marcel: .262/.326/.410
ZiPS: .232/.280/.337, average glove at short (on a Ex-Vg-Av-Fr-Pr scale)
That’s a pretty big gap. Personally, I lean more toward ZiPS.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oakland/KC in on Wilson?
In Rosenthal’s log for Wednesday (scroll down). Can’t tell whether it’s an actual report, or just an idea.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I saw that and assumed he was just tossing out names. I could kind of see Oakland being interested, but I doubt KC would be.
by Charlie on Dec 10, 2008 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would...
love if Oaklnad got involved in a deal for Wilson. Their system is so deep in pitching we could at least get one good guy. Maybe Mazzaro.
by joegonzo on Dec 10, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mets also in on Capps
According to Jon Heyman (Link).
Good luck with that. They weren’t willing to give up Niese or F-Mart for Bay, and since their ‘08 picks can’t be traded yet, that basically wipes out all their chips that are worth having.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would not...
care too much if we got Niese. I really don’t thin he will ever be any more than a good number 4 or decent number 3. The guys I would really want from New York are Wilmer Flores and Brad Holt. Both have a lot of potential. Holt could be a front end guy and some scouts have compared Flores to Miguel Cabrera.
by joegonzo on Dec 10, 2008 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Things that make you go HMMMM...
in the referenced blog by Rosenthal…Cards are supposedly offering Seattle Rick Ankiel and a prospect for JJ Putz. If the Cards make that offer to the Pirates for Capps…assuming the prospect would be at least a B prospect…I’m thinking that NH would run to New York to get that trade done.
by Thunder on Dec 10, 2008 4:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ollie Perez
Just saw that his demands are allegedly 5 years/$70 MM.
If Boras can say that with a straight face, more power to him
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/perez-looking-f.html#comments<a
by lost_zero on Dec 10, 2008 4:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't sound that far off to me.
$11-12M/year is market for an average starter, and Perez is a little better than that. I mean, Jeff Suppan’s last deal was $42M over four, and Perez is better than him.
Five years might be a little aggressive, but he should get four.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but...
look at the market for Burnett and Lowe.
The average per year for Perez isn’t the most insane part. I just wouldn’t give that guy 5 years guaranteed. That’s a good way to get fired, as a GM.
I think it’s even possible that Perez accepts arbitration for one year and goes back and tries to get his big deal next year.
by lost_zero on Dec 10, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
paulino
I am probably in the minority on this (more likely, stranded alone on a desert island), but I am not so anxious to trade Paulino now, especially for someone like this. Catchers are at a premium. Look at what Ramon Hernandez just fetched. Sure, he was terrible in Pittsburgh in 2007 and half of 2008, but he also hit over .300 for a full year in the majors and this past year tore it up in AAA and now in the Dominican winter league. We have no backup catcher and precious little right-handed hitting. Isn’t it worth keeping him as a backup, playing him against some lefties (Doumit could maybe play the outfield occasionally against lefties), and seeing if he can increase his market value by playing more like he did in 2006? This just seems like selling low again to me.
by basmati on Dec 10, 2008 7:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
We have a backup catcher.
Diaz, the guy we picked up from Toronto for Bautista, remember?
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree basmati
Paulino and Baker might make a decent platoon for the Marlins. I would make them cough up more than someone like Andino. Catchers who’ve had any success at the plate are hard to find.
by bolton on Dec 10, 2008 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Via MLBTR
6:20pm: Kovacevic says this trade “looks as if it might not advance past the talking stage.”
A link is included there…
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 7:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
From Dejan's PBC Blog
“He also hinted that there was one free-agent target that might turn into something but acknowledged other teams were "on this player,” too. All I know is the reference was not to David Eckstein"
Any information or rumors on the potential player they’re looking to sign?
by Isotopes on Dec 10, 2008 7:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also
Jason Davis heading to Japan after rejecting the AAA assignment.
by Isotopes on Dec 10, 2008 7:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rumors on MLBTR
from a MLB.com writer, it seems, that Bixler could be included in an Andino deal.
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 8:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And it seems like
the Mets are going to trade for Putz.
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 9:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bye bye Ronnie
Kovacevic reporting the Pirates have traded Paulino to Philly for C Jason Jaramillo.
by WTM on Dec 10, 2008 9:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Meh
Not sure how THAT is better than keeping Paulino.
by Trey_Beamon on Dec 10, 2008 9:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
SHHHHHHHHH
We’re sabotaging the Phillies. Heheheheheh.
by bucdaddy on Dec 10, 2008 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dejan says
Huntington liked Jaramillo from John Russell managing him in AAA in 2007.
He also says that Huntington announced publicly that Paulino wanted out.
by northsidenotch on Dec 10, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is there a shot
That either player gets flipped to Florida?
by Isotopes on Dec 10, 2008 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doubt it
I heard that Florida is about Andino for Bixler, and I’m neutral on that.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW (not much, probably)
rotoworld seems to think that the Phils absolutely got the better of the Buccos in the deal.
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Paulino is healthy and motivated, sure.
But really, how likely is that?
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know Jack to the Tigers is off the tables
but, FWIW, the Tigers traded Matt Joyce (whom the Pirates liked, it seems) for Edwin Jackson
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 10:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah.
It seems like the Mariners wanted Joyce for Putz, but instead are going to be settling for some really complex trade netting them Franklin Gutierrez
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If the package I saw is correct...
…then it’s a hideous deal for Seattle. I mean, Endy Chavez? Seriously?
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The guys at USSM are excited about it.
They like his defense, it seems.
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So, it might be a stupid question
but since I probably fall into the stupid category (at least when it comes to baseball), I’ll ask it here and hope for some clarification.
So, I’ve heard about the things like OBP & SLG and OPS and all. My question is, all the other stats out there… which ones are kinda important (for pitching, fielding, batting… all of it)? You see things like RBI & HR, and then there’s much more complex ones that cause migraines. Which ones are worth keeping an eye on if looking at players? And where do you find these stats (like I don’t think I’ve ever seen a defensive fielding metric on Yahoo!’s boxscore or anything)?
Am I asking this in the wrong place?
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 10:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Best stats:
At a glance, you can tell 90% of what you need from OBP, SLG, and Zone Rating. That’s not perfect, but if I could only take three state with me on a desert island, those are the ones I’d pick. For pitchers, go with K/9, BB/9, and HR/9.
You can add an awful lot of useful context from other numbers, though. It all depends how much accuracy you want/need, and how much time you feel like putting into it.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where do you find
the zone rating numbers?
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lots of places have 'em
ESPN stats is one place.
Fangraphs has a derivative called UZR that’s better, but also less intuitive in terms of the calculation. The stuff I gave you is all fairly easy to run up yourself from raw numbers.
by Vlad on Dec 10, 2008 10:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll have to check it out
I’m just trying to make more sense of all the stuff I’m reading all over the blogosphere now, because currently… I’m totally confused.
Thanks for the help!
by UtesFan89 on Dec 10, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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