Maybe the Pirates Should Keep Jack Wilson
Jack Wilson (photo: Urbansaddle)
To get right to the point: I've never been a huge Jack Wilson fan, and I think a big chunk of the Pirates' fanbase has consistently overrated him, and at this stage, I generally think the Pirates should trade players like Wilson. In fact, I think trades of veteran players are key to the Pirates' long term success. I think the Pirates should shop Wilson aggressively and should be willing to pay part of Wilson's salary if it increases their prospect haul. But perhaps now simply is not the time to trade him.
Detroit is believed to be willing to part with two prospects in a deal for Wilson, but not much more. The Tigers hold a number of young outfield prospects, though that's not the Pirates' most immediate need. Detroit doesn't seem to have a significant pool of pitching prospects available for the taking, and even a young shortstop could be hard to pry away from them.
With [Cale] Iorg being groomed as the Tigers' next shortstop, the Pirates could possibly lure Detroit's other top shortstop prospect, Danny Worth. But such a deal would have to include more than just Wilson from Pittsburgh.
Thoughts like these have cropped up in several places recently. I don't understand them.
Before I begin to explain why, let me say that I don't care to examine this deal from Detroit's perspective. That is, it doesn't matter to me whether Cale Iorg or Danny Worth for Wilson would be good trades for Detroit. My personal opinion is that they would be, but that's not my point. My only concern here is whether these deals would be good for the Pirates.
Let's first dispense with the idea that Iorg or Worth are "top shortstop prospects." To be fair, the article quoted above probably just means they're Detroit's top shortstop prospects, but just to resolve any amiguity: until they prove themselves on the field, these guys are fringe prospects, and only it Detroit's depleted farm system could they appear otherwise. It's perplexing that they keep coming up--that people think the Pirates would want either of them as anything other than a throw-in, or that Detroit would be unwilling to part with them.
Worth is already 23, didn't hit in 2007 at Class A+, and wasn't much better last year at Class AA. True, 2008 was only his second professional season, but he comes from a major college program (Pepperdine), isn't terribly young, and hasn't shown much of an ability to hit for contact in the pros. Or much power, for that matter.
Iorg, also a 23-year-old 2007 draftee, played last year at Class A+ and hit for better power than Worth did, but he also hit only .251 and had strikeout issues. The standard line about him is that, because he spent two years away from baseball on a Mormon mission in Portugal, he has some upside that his performance record disguises. It's true that some players (like Jason Bay, who came from Canada rather than from a warmer climate with year-round baseball) legitimately do develop later than others because of their backgrounds, but nine times out of ten these excuses turn out not to matter, at least not about players who are already 23. They're just noise. Anyway, Iorg didn't improve as the season went on last year (he had a .762 OPS before the break and a .692 OPS after), so there's no statistical evidence to support the idea that he's learning as he goes. That doesn't mean he isn't or that he won't break out next year, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Also last week, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Dodgers "balked" at the Pirates' offer of Wilson for Chin-Lung Hu, Delwyn Young and a third prospect. As I said at the time, maybe the third player was someone so good that the Dodgers had to pass. But if it was someone along the lines of Hu and Young, I don't know why the Dodgers would have said no (unless they just wanted more time to see how the market developed). Hu is Jack Wilson-lite in the best of circumstances, and he's coming off a very poor season (again with an excuse, which is that he had vision issues); Young is a AAAA player. If the offer was Hu, Young and someone about as good, I can't believe the Pirates would want that package or that the Dodgers would pass.
The Post-Gazette later reported that Hu would not be the "centerpiece" of any Wilson deal, fortunately. But the names that have floated around as possible returns for Wilson are all incredibly depressing. Worth, Iorg, Hu and Young all look like role players to me. If the market is such that even these guys are out of reach, there's no trade for the Pirates to make here.
If all the Pirates can get back from Wilson is role players, they should keep him. The step down from Wilson to options like Brian Bixler is a steep one; we all saw how the Pirates' shortstops played last year after Wilson got hurt. Why should the Pirates give up a popular and useful player if they don't get any kind of upside in return? The only logical answer to that question is "to save money," and that's not an answer I will accept. The Pirates' 2009 payroll already looks like it will be very low.
The Pirates should have dealt Wilson for Jair Jurrjens when they had the chance. Wilson had a worse season in 2008 than he did in 2007, and his contract, which went from dumb to perfectly reasonable as teams shelled out big bucks for free agents last offseason, now looks (mildly) unfavorable again. The Pirates, who don't have a lot of huge contracts on the books, can pay Wilson. Unless they can get someone who projects as a potential starter, he should play for them again in 2009.
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Comments
excellent post
I’m a little higher on Hu, but you put into words what I’ve been thinking. It’s always a good idea to trade Jack, but it’s not the time to give him away. He’s not blocking anyone and he doesn’t have a long-term contract.
by bolton on Dec 4, 2008 9:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
For Mark Worrell
and a prospect to be named, AP sez.
by bucdaddy on Dec 4, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he means
Padres trade Khalil Greene.
The Cards get him.
by UtesFan89 on Dec 4, 2008 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
urbansaddle
has some really nice photos
I also think that Hu’s bat might improve and he has the glove.
by ol Pete on Dec 4, 2008 9:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Give the Dodgers back a LaRoche
Why not see if the Dodgers would take Jack Flash and 2nd half LaRoche for say a Hu and Loney.
by long4willie on Dec 4, 2008 10:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Young will undergo elbow surgery in the off-season
According to Wikipedia site, Delwyn Young will have elbow surgery during the offseason and is expected to be ready in 2009. Damaged goods????
by long4willie on Dec 4, 2008 10:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wilson's Worth
The Pirates should look at what they are offering before being too critical of the prospects with Detroit. I don’t think we should expect much for a 31 year old short stop who rarely hits for more than .270, little power and $7.5M salary. Whoever eventually takes over had better have some power. The days of SS being strictly glove men are over.
by Brett of Indy on Dec 4, 2008 10:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Be that as it may, Wilson is so much better for the Pirates than the alternatives. And I think the idea that Wilson is strictly a glove man sells him short a bit.
by Charlie on Dec 4, 2008 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Verducci actually thinks the opposite
Read an SI article by Tom Verducci where he believes the big hitting SS thing was the anomaly, and light-hitting glove man is still the norm.
That said, I don’t usually agree with Tom Verducci on much of anything, but it’s an interesting argument at any rate.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/12/02/verducci.shortstops/index.html
by Blyleven Curve Ball on Dec 5, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on all counts
If this is the return, then hang on to him. If Detroit and/or LA (or anyone else needing a SS) are in a pennant race in July, they’ll probably be willing to give up more at the deadline, particularly since Wilson would only be due about $2.5M or so by then.
by biggyv on Dec 4, 2008 10:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Brett of Indy
How many shortstops out there are better all-around players than Jack Wilson?
We could keep Jack at an affordable price for the next two years, including his option.
Hopefully one of our minor leaguers will be ready for the job come 2011.
Who should we use if Jack goes? Bixler? Cruz? Hu or some other fringe prospect received in a trade? Trade for Brent Lillibridge because we lost so much when we sent him to the Braves? Get Sammy Khalifa out of a senior league?
There is no reason to trade Jack Wilson unless the Bucs can get at least a couple guys they think would actually help the big league club over the next few years.
Since the above is probably not going to happen, let’s keep him instead of just dumping salary.
“Whoever eventually takes over had better have some power. The days of SS being strictly glove men are over.”
No, first and foremost, the 2009 Pirates need a SS who can pick it. Solid offensive production would simply be a bonus.
by patthatt on Dec 5, 2008 12:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agree And Disagree
I agree with you that we need a major league player for Jackie, no use in watchin Bixler or Cruz fumble through until one of our SS prospect in the minors pans out. But I disagree with you about offensive production being a bonus. If the Bucs are going to improve we need a SS with potential to be a derek jeter or a dustin pedroia. Trading Jackie for a player just like him only younger does nothing but put us right back to where we started…….only about 5 or 6 years earlier
by cmeiers on Dec 5, 2008 9:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreement, disagreement, and everything in between
"If all the Pirates can get back from Wilson is role players, they should keep him. "
It’s only because I read Chuck Klosterman’s essay on “Advancement” last night while trying to go to sleep that I wil make the allusion, not caring whether anyone else gets it for these few lines, but suspecting that someone will, that I will say: Charlie, this post is Advanced.
I mean, I agree with you: If all we get is role players for Jack, then Jesus, God, no, we shoudln’t even be thinking about picking up the phone when caller ID shows a Detroit or LA area code. WE DON’T NEED TO TRADE JACK UNLESS IT MAKES THE TEAM BETTER. Yeah, even if he has another great offensive season (by his standards), it doesn’t put us in the running next year, but still: he’s holding down the fort as a major league shortstop. The most important IF position, esp with our pitching. You don’t part with a known commodity just because.
So, we agree.
But why do we agree now? Why did we not agree about Xavier Nady? Maybe it’s not appropriate to say “all other things being equal,” because they never are, but all other things being equal, are you OK trading X and Marte for fringe players, but not Jack? I mean, that seems nuts. Because fringe players are what Jack is likely to fetch. Low OPS+, arguably injury prone, not young… even with a reasonable salary, I’m going to be careful what I give up for him. Even with his good defense, he’s worth a few wins.
We have traded better players, or more promising players, than Jack for fringe players. We do it regularly. When it was Dl making the trades, we could write it off to lousy talent eval; at the 2008 deadline, we wrote it off to the market being the market. (This analysis considers Tabata an unproven commodity as of yet, but it hopes like hell he’s half what he’s been made out to be.) I think there’s a pretty strong argument that Nady, Marte and Bay went for fringe players. At best.
I guess, at the end of all this, I’m just wondering why, when you’ve never been even close to being a Jack Wilson fan, are you down on trading HIM for peanuts, when you were all but explcitly for trading X for whatever we could get, and not much bent out of shape at the return for JBay. I mean, I wasn’t either, but I sure had my questions once our return actually took the field.
by KPatrick on Dec 5, 2008 1:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fringe players for Nady and Bay?
I’d love to read that argument, because I sure don’t see it.
Now if you want to argue that we should’ve taken different individual prospects in some cases, I might buy that, but on overall market value of both packages I think the return was fair.
by Vlad on Dec 5, 2008 9:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There is no upside to trading Wilson for fringy players, really. I wanted to trade Nady because he was blocking Pearce; no such block exists, in Wilson’s case.
I probably don’t like the Bay trade right now much better than you do, but I haven’t said much about it because 1) I liked the trade at the time and 2) I think Moss, LaRoche and Morris deserve a much longer look before we judge too harshly.
Sorry, I know this is a perfunctory response. It’s a really busy day.
by Charlie on Dec 5, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I say keep him
I dont want questionable prospects. Hu and Young are definetly that. I dont think the Tigers or Dodgers have what we should try and get for Jack. People love this guy. He is a good player and a player that deserves to finish in Pittsburgh, where I truely believe he wants to be.
BRING BACK TIKE REDMAN
by omar moreno on Dec 5, 2008 9:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Trade him
But trade him to Detroit they have better prospects and on top of that they have the prospects the pirates need……..the la trade sucks and the propects we would get in return are not worth it
by cmeiers on Dec 5, 2008 9:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
With the exception of Porcello...
…LA has much, much better prospects than Detroit does.
by Vlad on Dec 5, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
cmeiers
“But I disagree with you about offensive production being a bonus. If the Bucs are going to improve we need a SS with potential to be a derek jeter or a dustin pedroia.”
Obviously we all want a star shortstop with all-around ability but, seeing as how those kind of guys are few and far between at the MLB level and out of our budget range, and the fact that we don’t have a prospect in our system who looks like a future standout SS, the most important thing IMO is to have a quality defensive SS in 2009-something that might be available for a year or two in a Wilson trade return.
If we go through 2009 with a combination of SSs playing Luis Rivas-caliber defense, the people on this site will go crazy.
by patthatt on Dec 5, 2008 10:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The argument for keeping Jack
seems to rest almost entirely on his “good defense.” Is he really still any good? bb-ref shows pretty much old-school and largely discredited fielding stats but FWIW in a half season Jack had the best RF and F% of his career. Anybody have access to Zone ratings or other info that might offer evidence for him still being a top-flight defensive SS?
BTW, while I was on there I noticed he hasn’t played more than 131 games since 2005. It would seem we’re going to be seeing a lot of Bixler anyway.
by bucdaddy on Dec 5, 2008 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Stats
Don’t have anything fancy at hand right now, but by plain vanilla ZR he looks pretty good. He had a .850 last year – among SS with 300+ defensive innings, that ranks him 12th out of the 40 qualifiers.
I think it’s safe to say that he’s above average, though he probably isn’t an elite defender on a par with someone like Adam Everett.
by Vlad on Dec 5, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Hardball Times, which arrived a couple days ago, grades Jack as an A. (They grade Bay an F and Nady and McLouth both F-, which is interesting.) I can’t vouch for their system.
by WTM on Dec 5, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Detroit's Jeff Larish, uninspiring
According to this site:
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/01/keeping-jeff-larish-in-perspective.html
26 year old 1st baseman that the Pirates have been scouting, which possibly Detroit has decided to throw in the deal for Jack Flash. I thought we had a left handed 1st baseman that hits about 260 with twenty something HRs, albeit in a half a season!
by long4willie on Dec 5, 2008 12:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Larish ain't bad.
Solid B/B- guy. A lefty bat with walks and power could be useful for us, particularly since Big LaRoche might not be around anymore after the end of the season. Not much glove or BA, so he’s probably not a superstar, but there’s a fairly high chance of him being useful.
by Vlad on Dec 5, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A point I think is being missed...
There’s nothing wrong with getting back a younger, cheaper Jack Wilson. In fact, this would be tremendous. If we could get a cheap young player like Hu or Iorg that can put up similar numbers and not sacrafice much defense this would allow us to spend on other positions when the team deems itself competitive.
Why keep Jack for the sake of keeping Jack? The money we save on him, as well as last years trades could allow us to make a big play for a free agent in 2 years, in addition to a couple cheaper role players.
by jlk9697 on Dec 5, 2008 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Getting younger
The problem with hanging onto Jack for a couple more years is exactly that. He seems to be getting more injury prone, his gap power—which used to be borderline OK for a SS—disappeared completely this year, and he doesn’t have the wiry sort of build that you see with SSs whose range stays good until late ages. I’m not sure how good Jack will be defensively in another year or so.
by WTM on Dec 5, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Hu maxes out his offensive game...
…he could be a Jack-type offensive player, though he’s likely to settle in a little lower than that. I’m not nearly so sanguine about Iorg’s bat.
by Vlad on Dec 5, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Get Whatever We can For Wilson
It’s time to sat sayonara, and take the best deal available.
by thegunner on Dec 5, 2008 11:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think enough has been said about
the potential value of getting rid of Jack’s contract. If the money saved just goes into the owners pocket, then yeah, of course there is no value in that from our perspective. But if it is used to draft and sign high-upside amatuers, it seems to me that that has far more potential value than paying Wilson $7.5 million per year to play SS for a team with no chance of being competitive. For instance, I bet only a small fraction of that amount would have been enough to sign that 2nd round pitcher we couldn’t sign.
Alternatively the money saved on Wilson could be used in contracts for Doumit, McLouth or Maholm. If all we can get is a good field no hit SS for Jack that will be fine as long as the money saved is used to invest in a Pirate team with the potential to contend. With an offensive core of Doumit, McClouth, Alvarez, Cutch and Tabata we’ll be able to put up some runs and it should be easy to find a couple of bench bats that will that will hit for that SS when he comes up in crucial siturations.
by WestCoastBuc on Dec 6, 2008 8:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
We already dumped a ton of extra money...
…into scouting and PD last year, between the new academy and the over-slot draft bonuses and the big uptick in international signings. I think it’s kind of a situation with diminishing returns, as far as ROI for the $$. At least for right now, anyway.
I’m fine with them not signing Scheppers. He was behind his recovery timeline when he worked out for them, and if they aren’t confident that he’ll come back full-strength (or at least close to it) from the shoulder thing, then there’s no point in throwing $2M down the sewer just to make an ideological point.
by Vlad on Dec 8, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree
that it would be silly to spend a lot of money on a guy like Scheppers if he is unlikely to recover from his injury and there may well be a diminishing rate of return on additional money spent on the draft.
Even so, it seems to me that the Bucs ought to have better things to do with $15 million Bucks than spend it the next two years on a guy like Wilson whose chances of helping us contend someday are probably pretty remote. If you are right and the returns from spending on the draft are likely to be low, then use the money to resign guys that maybe can help us a couple of years from now. Or just save the money and use it on a FA at a time when it looks like we may be in a position to contend. There must be a lot of ways to spend that money in ways that will help us more than spending it now on a guy, who if we’re lucky, will get us to 68 wins instead of 65.
by WestCoastBuc on Dec 8, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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