Pirates Like Matt Joyce, Jeff Larish

by Charlie on Dec 6, 2008 3:31 PM EST Comment 15 comments

The Pirates might be interested in acquiring Matt Joyce or Jeff Larish in a trade with the Tigers for Jack Wilson.

I'd pass on Larish, who's already 26 and wasn't overly impressive last year in AAA. Joyce, who played well in both AAA and the majors last year as a 23-year-old, would be a good return indeed--probably way too good. I can't believe the Tigers would part with a young power hitter like that in exchange for Wilson, even if they took on some of Wilson's salary.

Pursuing someone like Joyce is a much better idea than someone like Cale Iorg or Danny Worth, but I'm not sure it's going to work out. The Pirates need to acquire upside here, but probably the way for them to do that is to acquire someone at the low levels of the farm system.

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Would it be possible...

…to convert Joyce into a first baseman? He’s similar in stature to Larish and also appeared to be very athletic in his time with Detroit last year.

by Isotopes on Dec 6, 2008 4:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why would you do that?

He’s a better OF defender than Pearce. It’d seem odd to put the 1B in the outfield and the outfielder at 1B.

by Vlad on Dec 8, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This was my thought...

We seem to have a number of capable outfielders already, including a couple in the minors. Assuming Joyce has more offensive upside than Pearce, his bat should be in the lineup. Of course, I only suggest this if LaRoche is gone within the next few years.

by Isotopes on Dec 8, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, I guess.

I mean, almost anyone can play first base to one extent or another. If we’ve got a McLouth-McCutchen-Tabata OF in two years, then sure, we could stick him at first. We could make a trade, too – cheap young guys who can hit always have good market value.

That said, I’m not optimistic about Alvarez sticking at third long-term, and if he’s everything that he’s supposed to be with the bat, then it’d be tough for anyone to hold 1B in front of him.

by Vlad on Dec 8, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That sounds better...

Get Alvarez’s bat into the lineup before Joyce’s. Although, I guess this whole talk is moot, since Everett is a Tiger.

by Isotopes on Dec 8, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably, yeah.

There’s always the chance that Everett will fail a physical, or that his deal is cheap enough that they could make him a utility guy if a Jack scenario looks attractive enough. Or Dejan’s source could be wrong. But yeah, probably done for now.

It’s still fun to game scenarios out, though. It keeps your analytical skills sharp, and there’s always the chance that we’ll be trying to make a different deal with the Tigers at the deadline, for Capps or Ronny or whomever. Who knows?

by Vlad on Dec 8, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Joyce/Moss

Is Joyce more or less interesting than Brandon Moss? At first glance they seem pretty similar. Maybe Joyce might a little more power?

by Chad Bahamas on Dec 6, 2008 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

More interesting.

Better tools, and he’s a year younger, which is big in terms of future development curve.

by Vlad on Dec 8, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the reply

I didn’t realize one year could make a big difference. Is there a place to find data on future development curves? Like, if I wanted to see a probability distribution that a player is likely to improve by various amounts based on age and position, where would I go? Call up NH or Bill James? I imagine even BP keeps that stuff under wraps.

by Chad Bahamas on Dec 8, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think there are actual graphs anywhere.

It’s more of a mental shorthand kind of thing. If you wanted some actual graphs, though, you could probably rig something up from the Lahman database with a few hours of work in Excel.

Joyce’s forward machine projection is going to have a higher potential variance because he’s younger and because his huge 2008 is much better than his relatively undistinguished 2006/2007. Moss’s record is more consistent, and as such there’s a smaller error bar on his projection, but he doesn’t have that enormous year, which limits his upside.

zMLE for Joyce’s 2008 at AAA was .246/.314/.478, which is excellent power for a 23-year-old, and pretty well in line with his Detroit performance of .252/.339/.492. Moss’s raw AAA line from last year (.282/.346/.528) looks good, but once you correct for park and league it’s not as impressive. The zMLE is only .259/.313/.434, again pretty close to the actual .246/.304/.436 he hit in the majors. Ergo, the forward projection is lower – ZiPS isn’t out yet, but Marcel sees about 60 points of OPS difference between the two for next year, and if they both hit their projections, that gap will increase going forward.

Moss probably also deserves to get clipped a bit for the knee thing. He was reportedly considering microfracture surgery over the offseason, which is a serious matter, while Joyce has a pretty clean bill of health (to the best of my knowledge).

by Vlad on Dec 8, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Vlad

I’m pretty concerned about Moss’s knee, too. They are saying he’ll be ready for spring training, but we’ll see. As you and others have pointed out, we don’t really have much for the OF even with Moss, so it’s a scary scenario to consider our prospects without him for even a short part of the regular season.

Maybe I’m overreacting, but we saw what happened with Freddy’s shoulder this year, and we know that the team has been less than forthcoming about injuries for years, and the jury is still out on the new guys in this regard, IMO.

It would have been nice to include a guy like Matt Joyce in the mix for next year.

by patthatt on Dec 8, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Matt Joyce Has A Bright Future!

by thegunner on Dec 6, 2008 5:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Larish is also a good ball player

I live in Toledo, OH and have seen both Joyce and Larish play for the Mud Hens (the Tigers’ Triple-A team). Joyce and Larish are both good ball players. Joyce has had more success and experience in the majors so far and could be the better all-around ball player, but don’t cut out Larish. He has some raw power. He just hasn’t had the chance to showcase it at the major league level.

by Deaner on Dec 6, 2008 8:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs