Four Bad Offseasons
Spring Training is approaching, and I'd like to take stock of the offseason so far. Keeping in mind that there are a ton of free agents still available, here are the four teams I think hurt themselves the most this winter. (My article about the five best offseasons is here.)
GIANTS: When a Pirates fan feels as free as I do to call the Giants the worst, stupidest franchise in baseball, well, San Francisco's got a problem. Heading into this offseason, the Giants were a 71-win team whose lineup managed to be incredibly boring despite the presence of Barry Bonds. Now Bonds is gone, and the Giants' big move this offseason was to sign a scarily inconsistent hitter (Aaron Rowand) to a five-year contract that could hamstring the Giants for years to come. Meanwhile, the Giants have six projected starting offensive players ages 33 or older, and only one projected starter besides Rowand who posted an OPS above .800 last year. They're also planning on starting four guys with 2007 OBPs below .306, all of whom are at least 33. Nice work, Brian Sabean!
WHITE SOX: Most of the Sox's major moves this offseason - including signing Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel to multi-year deals and trading a pair of very high-upside arms in Faustino de los Santos and Gio Gonzalez for Nick Swisher - would've made a lot of sense if the Sox were a 90-win team. But they weren't. They were a 72-win team. Even after their offseason moves, their 2008 forecast is third place with a slight chance of dead last, and they're millions poorer and no longer have any farm system, either. They were probably headed in the wrong direction anyway, but the White Sox's offseason probably ensures that they're going to be in really terrible shape in two years or so.
ASTROS: Like the White Sox, the Astros don't seem to understand the shape their franchise is in. They won 73 games in 2007, so their big moves were... to trade their best reliever for pennies on the dollar, to sign Kaz Matsui and to trade several of their few remaining prospects for Miguel Tejada? Sure, their middle infield will be a lot better, and they're apparently finally going to start phasing out the execrable Brad Ausmus in favor of young catcher J.R. Towles, but this is all deck-chair shuffling. Even in the weak NL Central, the Astros are going nowhere. They could've used this offseason to acknowledge that obvious fact and make some strides toward addressing their uncertain future, but instead they did the exact opposite.
MARINERS: This one is more debatable than the first three, but I still think the Mariners' attempts to catch the Angels are doomed to failure. Seattle somehow managed to win 88 games last year, but by third-order wins, they were 78-84, and their Pythagorean record was 79-83. At least they correctly identified their rotation as one of their big problems, but Carlos Silva isn't a great pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, and he isn't a great fit for Safeco Field, either. Erik Bedard is a legitimately terrific pitcher, but Seattle gave up a king's ransom to get him, and he's not going to get them to the playoffs. Texas and Oakland have acknowledged the Angels' clear superiority and started rebuilding projects; in a couple years, the Mariners are going to wish they had, too.
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First three dead on..
by Slick on
Feb 14, 2008 1:15 AM EST
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No way on the Mariners
Can I suggest to pre-emptively put the Reds on the list? First they hired Dusty to coach young talent....which he hates to do. Plus, he's not a great manager. But mostly because it seems like they will trade 2-3 of their top shelf prospects for Joe Blanton soon. Joe Blanton, more like Joe Bland-on.
by Tricky Kid on
Feb 14, 2008 7:26 AM EST
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"Going for it"
"Going for it" is almost always what causes these really disastrous offseasons. If you're a 78-win team and you're going for it by trying to topple a 94-win team, you're usually going to fail. If you leverage the future of your franchise in order to do that, you're usually just killing yourself.
Hiring Dusty is nearly bad enough to put the Reds on this list, it's true.
by Charlie on
Feb 14, 2008 1:46 PM EST
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But...
That package to the O's was the best package of the offseason, but it's still a bunch of prospects. All of us here love prospects, but if you look back at the majority of these 4 for 1, 5 for 1 deals, most of them favor the team getting the established guy. (Don't bring up Lowe and Varitek, there's always an exception).
Adam Jones could have solved either CF or RF for the next 7-10 years in Seattle. Or he could bomb out. Seattle feels that Wilkerson and maybe Baleintein can replace his production in the short and medium term.
Tillman has all the tools and skills, but is still only 19/20 years old. Butler did not have a great year but has a ton of potential. I don't know anything about Mickolio.
Anyway, I would give up Jones/Tillman/Butler for Bedard if I thought I had a chance. Felix and Bedard is a hell of a 1-2 punch.
It's not as if this left the Mariners farm system bare, either. They kept Clement and Truinfel and feel very high on Michael Saunders as a CF in the long-term.
If you want to get something, you have to give something up.
I stand by my original statement that it's good to see a management team "go for it".
by Tricky Kid on
Feb 14, 2008 2:52 PM EST
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Quibble
by Vlad on
Feb 14, 2008 9:47 PM EST
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Jesus....
When you look back on teams, their records are written down. A lot of times on things called "paper".
Just let it go and stop being nitty.
by Tricky Kid on
Feb 15, 2008 11:49 AM EST
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OK
by matskralc on
Feb 15, 2008 2:25 PM EST
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It's no wonder
Keep up the good job of wordsmithing and squashing any opinion different than the hive-mind.
by Tricky Kid on
Feb 15, 2008 10:14 PM EST
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Hey now
by Charlie on
Feb 16, 2008 1:59 PM EST
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I see what you are saying Charlie...
Of course if Ibanez, Vidro, Batista, Silva and the like simultaneously slip with age those forward steps will be negated.
by The New Guy on
Feb 14, 2008 9:00 AM EST
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I don't think...
I think the Mariners are going to miss Adam Jones four or five years down the road. Even if they manage to catch and pass the Angels, they'd definitely be the weak sister among the AL playoff teams.
by Vlad on
Feb 14, 2008 10:10 AM EST
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so
Pitchers and catchers, please report for duty...
by bryanzane on
Feb 14, 2008 10:27 AM EST
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Nice the Bucs Are Not on this List!
If the players on the Bucs do not improve this year, then next year could be a fire sale. Bay, Nady, Wilson, LaRouche all could be gone. Duke and Maholm were be possible goners too.
I hope the players understand that this year there can be no excuses for not playing their best. They need to show the fans and the new Management that they (the players)are not the reason for the "losing culture".
by zogger on
Feb 14, 2008 1:08 PM EST
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