Community Projection: Jack Wilson

by Charlie on Feb 6, 2008 6:16 PM EST in News Comment 32 comments

UPDATE: The Wilson projections are now closed.

How will Jack Wilson fare in 2008? There was widespread agreement in his 2006 and 2007 projections, but there may not be this year, given the surprisingly excellent season Wilson had. Most of it was the fact that he had the second highest batting average of his career (there was also a slight spike in his walk rate, but I fear that's an illusion), so his performance in '08 will probably be closely tied to his average. His other hitting skills (a bit of power, few walks) probably are what they are at this point.

Let me know what you think in the comments by guessing his 2008 average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Here are Wilson's career numbers.

The Adam LaRoche projections are in:

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	ZiPS
Adam LaRoche	1B	.280/.351/.509	.272/.348/.492

Both the community and ZiPS think LaRoche will top his career numbers. We'll see.

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Jack

272/335/390

by WTM on Feb 6, 2008 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wilbur's had Jack at .270 the past two years...

A great year gets him bumped to .272! You're like my high school calculus teacher, who gave infamously difficult exams, and then gave out a pencil to the highest scorer. A pencil!

by Charlie on Feb 6, 2008 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Have I?

I don't remember what I projected for anybody.

Anyway, a .725 OPS would put him a shade below avg. at his position. After so many bad years, it's hard to think his great two months last year (he was awful before that) are going to continue. But his plate discipline has improved steadily for several years now, so I see no reason to think he'll collapse back to 2005-06 levels.

One reason for optimism: Jack is clearly a player whose focus comes and goes. His 2004 breakout actually started in late 2003 after the Pirates got rid of several veterans who'd been making life very hard for him. His huge two months in 2007 started when it appeared he'd be traded away from a very bad relationship with a very bad manager (not to mention a meddling pitching coach). With Tracy gone, it's possible Jack will stay better focused and do something like 2004 with more walks. I may have underrated him.

by WTM on Feb 6, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs