The NL Central So Far
Here are the NL Central standings so far, along with a note about what each team's start may mean in the long term.
1. St Louis Cardinals, 9-4: The Cards' offense, highlighted by Albert Pujols, Skip Schmaker, and an outstanding part-time performance by Rule 5 pick Brian Barton, has only been a bit better than expected, but their sketchy pitching staff had a 2.94 ERA before today's games; none of their starters have ERAs above 4.00. Don't expect that to continue, but Cards fans have reason to be encouraged - Todd Wellemeyer is striking out more than a batter an inning, and Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright have both been terrific so far. This team is still too patchy to be in the race in August, but maybe they're a little bit better than we think.
2. Milwaukee Brewers, 8-4: Ben Sheets is already in midseason form, but there are a number of pitchers in key roles whose performances have been suspect so far, including Eric Gagne, Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan. The sooner this team gets away from Suppan, the better; his pitch-to-contact ways and increasingly tiny strikeout rate just aren't going to work with the Brewers' defense. Jason Kendall's OPS so far is 1.035 and Ryan Braun's is .688; expect those two guys to trade stat lines by June. With nine games against the poor pitching staffs in Florida and Houston in the next few weeks, the slow-starting Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, and J.J. Hardy should get back on track.
3. Chicago Cubs, 7-5: Newcomers Kosuke Fukudome and Geovany Soto have been as good as advertised so far, and Carlos Zambrano has been superb, but a meddlesome manager could jeopardize the Cubs' chances by bumping Rich Hill from the starting rotation.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6-6: If this is a .500 team, then I'm a potted plant, but the Pirates have at least played a lot of interesting games so far. The team's outfielders have been excellent, much to the relief of fans who've spent the past ten months worrying about Jason Bay. The Bucs stand to gain quite a lot as middle infielders Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson get healthy. Pitching depth remains a problem - Matt Morris in particular just isn't doing anything out there - but this has mostly been an encouraging start.
5. Cincinnati Reds, 6-7: There's a lot to like here, beginning with the emergence of Johnny Cueto, but Wayne Krivsky and Dusty Baker simply can't be trusted to put the right players on the field. One wonders what they continue to see in non-hitters like Juan Castro and Norris Hopper, and the Reds usually have three or four such non-hitters in their lineup. In time, players like this will completely undo the good work done by folks like Cueto, Aaron Harang and Brandon Phillips.
6. Houston Astros, 5-8: The Astros' offense has been poor so far and should improve, but by how much? When you play guys like Darin Erstad, Brad Ausmus, and Michael Bourn as much as the Astros have, you deserve to get shut out sometimes. And while it's rarely a good idea to read too much into 13-game sample sizes, anytime a player with Carlos Lee's physique and contract size gets off to a slow start, his team should be concerned. On the positive side, Wandy Rodriguez has been terrific so far and may be emerging as a good #2 starter. I've been skeptical about him for too long; the guy can pitch.
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4. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6-6: If this is a .500 team, then I'm a potted plant
That literally made me laugh out loud.
http://whereisvanslyke.blogspot.com
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/mlb
by whygavs on Apr 14, 2008 1:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks. The "potted plant" part of the line comes from Rob Neyer, though, so he gets the credit.
by Charlie on Apr 14, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
charlie
Congratulations on being the first potted plant to have a blog. This is a .500 team.
by bolton on Apr 14, 2008 1:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bold prediction
We'll see how right you are at the end of the season.
Formerly known as Econolodge
by Willton on Apr 14, 2008 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bucs
Pre-season we all said the Bucs have the shot to be .500 if their top four pitchers stay healthy and perform well, and Ryan Doumit finally plays like he can, Nate McLouth breaks out, Nady hits like last year, Bay returns to form, the back end of the bullpen pitches well, etc etc etc...but that the chances of everything coming together perfectly are slim to none.
Well, a lot of that has started out right except for LaRoche and a couple injuries. The result--a .500 club.
You could say that if Jack and Freddie come back healthy while LaRoche heats up we might be pretty good this year, which may be true.
But the reality is that the wheels will probably come off on some of these guys, and we don't have any depth, anywhere.
by DITO on Apr 14, 2008 8:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Monday's win probablity
On my Dodger Sims blog, I run 3000 game simulations for each NL West game and come up with a win probablity. I have been comparing the results against the Las Vegas Hilton sports book for the past 1-2 years. For monday nights game against the Dodgers my simulator gives the Dodgers a 58.30% chance of winning and LV Hilton gives the Dodgers a 62.26% chance of winning. I am using 2008 ZIPS projections as data input and the simulator takes into account things like home field advantage and everything else you can think of.
vr, Xeifrank
by Xeifrank on Apr 14, 2008 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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Keppinger must be just a horrible MI, because he sure can hit, and looks like he's always been able to. I can't believe so many orgs (must have) thought so little of his D to just not be interested in sticking him at 2B and living with it. And now CIN plays him at 1B.
Kendall had lasik, I'll bet his batting eye stays good. Not .400 batting average good, but maybe .400 OBP.
I think the Pirates should be 10-6, if not for Bixler's freeze, and bad bunting and baserunning by Rivas and Morgan (on one play). There's the "two wins a month" that's the difference between 70 and 82 like I wrote in that Fanpost. It might even out, but the point is, that's two games they've just thrown away.
by azibuck on Apr 14, 2008 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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Keppinger has good hands, but not much range. IMO, he's fine at 2B, stretched at SS.
It's tempting to say that we'd have some extra wins if not for the occational fuckup, but there are also games that we wouldn't have won if the other team didn't make similar mistakes. I don't think there's any real predictive value in it.
by Vlad on Apr 14, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, every time I've seen Keppinger, I've thought, "Wow, he actually looks competent out there." I thought pretty much what you're thinking, Azibuck, that he must be terrible since he hasn't gotten more of an opportunity, but he isn't. I don't know if he's a legit starting shortstop, but I see no reason he can't be an above-average starting second baseman for the next few years.
by Charlie on Apr 14, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Back when he was in our system...
...I saw him as a guy who could be an Adam Kennedy-type starter for 5-10 years.
If anything, I think I was underselling him.
by Vlad on Apr 15, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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