So Far
I'm impressed so far with the Pirates' ability to hang in there so far, but I still don't see them being a .500 team. Here's why, and feel free to disagree:
-P- The bullpen will not continue to pitch at this level. There just isn't that much talent there. While it's nice we appear to have fleeced the Braves for once -- IMO, Neal Huntington hasn't gotten enough widespread praise for this move yet, because nobody out-talent-evaluates the Braves -- there's just not enough depth (with Evan Meek and Phil Dumatrait at the back of the pen) when someone slumps or gets hurt. Really, there's not enough depth anywhere on this team.
Players are overachieving and will return to normal. Xavier Nady's fast start will end. It always does. Nate McLouth can't hit this well forever, though I'll be rooting against this prediction. He can go a lot of ways from here - he could be this year's Freddy-Sanchez-out-of-nowhere breakout and hit .340 with 50 doubles, or pitchers could figure him out and he ends up hitting .260 with 15 hrs, which certainly isn't bad for a CF, but our expectations are sky high for him. Jason Bay's hitting is very encouraging, particularly his k/bb of 10/11, but it's too early to say he's back Through six games he was hitting .182/.357/.227, though in the last five games he's pulled his average up 100 points and three homers have remedied his Abe-Nunez-like slugging percentage. Still, it's too small of a sample size to say he'll continue to hit this well all year. I love seeing Zach Duke pitching the way he is - man, did he look good blowing a fastball by Derrek Lee in his last start - but there's no way he's this good. His ERA is 2.13 but his WHIP is 1.58. He's given up 18 hits in 12 innings. His ERA will at least double by the end of this month.
Lingering injuries. There's no way Tom Gorzelanny doesn't end up on the DL in the next few months. Then who starts? Dumatrait? JVB? Bullington? Freddy's shoulder isn't going anywhere. I was at that 15 inning marathon against the Cubbies and every throw he made to first, including double play turns, was a rainbow. There's no way he avoids the DL for an extended period of time. at least Chris Gomez can cover second adequately and his hitting has been better than expected. Jack Wilson hasn't even been cleared for a rehab outing yet and will do another turn on the 15 day DL. The Rivas/Bambi platoon continues at SS for another two weeks, and it's going to get really ugly. They both look like amateurs both in the field and at the plate. Who, between Nady and Ryan Doumit, will tweak a hamstring first? My money is on Doumit. Again, just not enough depth, particularly in the middle infield, and any injury to an outfielder not named Nady will result in Nyjer Morgan having a starting role.
Who's going to step up to keep this pace when others slump? who's underperforming? Adam LaRoche? Jose Bautista? Does anyone expect them to carry the team and keep us out of the annual late May / early June season-killing slump?
Matt Morris gets to start every five days. I want to believe that this is a competitive major league team (really I do!) but I think this is as good as this team gets right now, so let's enjoy our bout with relevance while we can. First pitch is at 10:05 tonight.
1 recs |
27 comments
Comments
Bullpen depth
The depth isn't Dumatrait and Meek, it's Sean Burnett and Romulo Sanchez, and after them maybe Marino Salas, Jesse Chavez and Jason Davis. There's going to be some shuffling at some point. Even the best bullpens hardly ever seem to stay the same all year.
by WTM on Apr 14, 2008 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you're right
and it makes me feel much worse. i should have clarified and said depth of reliable bullpen pitchers.
thanks for the bump charlie.
by johnnycuff on Apr 14, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was interpreting him as saying that because Dumatrait and Meek would have to go through waivers, they're likely to stick with the team for a while whether or not they're effective.
by Charlie on Apr 14, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
He said the bullpen will not continue to pitch at this level. I think they could pitch better, or at least more consistently, and I'd cite the same guys WTM did, and throw in Bullington or JVB if they finally move them to the pen where they belong.
by azibuck on Apr 14, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what
to think about Dumatrait yet. Meek doesn't seem to want to throw a strike, but if he starts to, he may improve.
I think the back end of the bullpen could pitch very, very well this year. Two solid righties and two solid lefties (I feel like Marte will be fine) is a pretty good start.
Depth is certainly a problem, so some games could get out of control, but close leads into the 7th should be able to be held pretty consistently.
by DITO on Apr 14, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then...
We're counting on Romulo! to make the bullpen better? And Mr. March Sean Burnett?
http://whereisvanslyke.blogspot.com
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/mlb
by whygavs on Apr 14, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, my thoughts exactly. The Sean Burnett hype train needs to pull into the station before somebody gets hurt. This guy was TERRIBLE - just awful - the past two years, and now, after 20 good innings, he's supposed to our savior.
Sorry Azibuck, I know you didn't say that. But there are a ton of people out there who think that.
by Charlie on Apr 14, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when i said "pitching at this level" i meant that the bullpen cannot be expected to hold a lead or keep the score close when the starter goes something like 5 innings and leaves almost half the game to them. our starters have only figured in half (6 of 12) of the decisions so far - 2 are wins by snell, 2 are losses by morris (he only got out of the 5th in one of them because said bullpen was spent), yesterday's win by gorzo and a loss by maholm (who hasn't gone more than 5 1/3 yet). throw in the two extra inning games against the cubs where the bullpen went 17 2/3 innings with an era of 3.56 (aka oliver perez last year) and it's clear we've been leaning heavily on what was widely acknowledged as a team weakness coming into the season.
my point was (or should have been) that if we keep relying on the bullpen as we have so far, we're going to start seeing diminishing returns - more losses.
by johnnycuff on Apr 14, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Far
Hey,let's give them a chance! They look respectable so far,and by no means are some of the various failures anticipated a foregone conclusion.
Sometimes I think we secretly keep wanting the Pirates to fail,so that we can keep complaining about them....
by rissaldar on Apr 14, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know I am going to get called dumb for this
but I haven't heard it before so I figured I'd throw it out there.
If Johnnycuff is right, and Wilson will be doing another stint on the DL, I think we could give Neil Walker a brief look in the majors for a while.
The shuffle would look something like playing Jose Bautista at 2B and playing Freddy at short.
It is a little crazy considering the defensive downgrade at second and Freddy's arm troubles. But, Bautista is a good enough athlete to be OK at second, and if Freddy can't even throw across the infield right now he shouldn't be on the field anyway. Plus, neither Bixler or Rivas has looked good with the glove--Freddy may not have superb range but it is probably as good as theirs.
There really wouldn't be any developmental issues, because it would be temporary and Walker would be playing every day.
It probably isn't worth the massive defensive shuffling, but I am just so anxious to see some young talent and to keep Rivas (who could be demoted to Indy) away from SS that I figured I would see what people thought.
by DITO on Apr 14, 2008 4:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's an interesting idea, but yeah - Freddy can't throw across the infield. His throws from second have just been horrible so far, and I wouldn't want him completely shredding his arm trying to make a play from shortstop.
by Charlie on Apr 14, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IAWTC
Also - and this is a stretch, to be sure - but how is Gomez @ short? Can he play there for a week, and have Minks @ 2nd?
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 14, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gomez must not be very good at SS at all, since the organization hasn't used him there despite his and 0-for-3vas' respective starts. In any case, a middle infield of Mientkiewicz and Gomez would scare me and not be the best thing for the future of the team. Plus, where would Sanchez play? If he can't handle SS right now, he certainly can't handle 3B.
by Charlie on Apr 14, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I know it's scary...
I was figuring Sanchez to the DL, so short term juggling... can't do much worse than Rivas @ SS? Or perhaps Gomez @ SS, Rivas @ 2nd? Dunno, I'm spitballing here.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 14, 2008 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bullpen etc.
johnnycuff,
it's valid to say that the unusually high play of the bullpen has gotten us back to .500, but you have to remember why we needed a sweep in the first place: because the bullpen had blown lead after lead in the previous games. So, my thinking is that it's a bit of wash; they're not going to pitch as badly as they did in the early season either. It really comes down to the performance of the starters, who, if they do well, will minimize the damage of Meek and Dumatrait, and if they don't.... And this seems to be the pattern for the whole team; some guys are hot right now, but other guys like LaRoche and Freddy aren't even playing.
My guess is that the Bucs chance at actually sustaining .500+ will come down to McClouth and Duke (well, and Gorzelanny miraculously not being injured). If both come through with good seasons, I think that's enough for an extra win a week. If they return to being mediocre, this team is going nowhere.
by escroll on Apr 14, 2008 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't mean to imply that the bullpen is the worst or only our worries. i'm more concerned about gorzellany getting hurt or john russell again fielding a middle infield of brian bixler and luis rivas in a major league baseball game. the bullpen got the job done, but they're not as good as we've needed them to be.
by johnnycuff on Apr 14, 2008 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
This could become a strength. Yates seems to have found himself, and while I don't think Dumatrait has much to offer, I think Meek if he just throws the ball as hard has he can might have a good inning in him every few days. Capps, Burnett, Marte (assuming he stays), Yates, Meek, Grabow and name whomever give you better than a lot of teams have. What worries me is 2B and 3B. I think Doumit can catch, and I first base and the outfield are completely indecipherable until they decide to trade or not to trade. SS becomes an issue as well if Jack goes. As for the starting pitching, I have no confidence in anyone except for Snell, until it is certain that Gorzellany is healthy (and that, to me, is doubtful).
by RichieHebner on Apr 14, 2008 7:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
I think it's interesting analysis, although I'm a little more bullish on the bullpen, too (including Burnett - although maybe not to the "savior" level). We know LaRoche will hit eventually, and Bay's numbers are solid. If Nady stays healthy (a huge if, I know) his power numbers really aren't that far off pace. And Sanchez/Wilson haven't done anything combined, so they at least won't get any worse and probably will get better.
Gorzy worries me, too, but if Duke's really back ...
by TPenaRules on Apr 14, 2008 8:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sort of unrelated
Pittsburgh hockey is back but I don't think our baseball team is. If the Pirates can play .500 ball, I'll gladly become a potted plant.
by Pirates_of_the_Windy_City on Apr 14, 2008 9:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Salary Cap!
I'm willing to miss a year of baseball if it results in the same changes hockey got. Does anyone really think Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar, Hossa, etc., etc., etc. would be Penguins long term instead headed to Detroit or New York without a cap?
by TPenaRules on Apr 14, 2008 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Pens probably won't be able to keep all of those guys because of the cap.
A salary cap in baseball is unnecessary. The cap in the NFL is starting to create a gap between the large and small market teams, which is why the owners are gonna opt out in November.
The key in baseball would be to get rid of guaranteed contracts, which of course won't happen. So then it comes down to smart management.
by hisjazziness on Apr 14, 2008 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pirates don't need a cap.
If baseball added a cap, it’d probably be at $90M or so. Since we usually carry a payroll around $40M, it wouldn’t do jack for us.
If we were to get a change, a salary floor would help a lot more, since it’d force teams like the Pirates and Marlins to open their wallets to a reasonable payroll.
by Vlad on Apr 15, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
A floor is what the Bucs need, but according to Costas’ formula, that would happen. It might actually end up with more being spent on overall payroll – only a handful of teams are breaking what the cap would be, but the floor might be $50 mil or so, forcing the Rays, Bucs, Marlins, etc., to spend millions more.
Eliminating guaranteed contracts would be great but you jazz is right – won’t happen. A cap probably won’t either, but the players might bite with a high floor.
by TPenaRules on Apr 15, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you really want a cap
The best thing to do is to peg it to a % of gross league revenue from all sources, and separate the cap and the floor by maybe $20M, with the money you receive from the general fund tapering off if you go too far in either direction.
You’d still need to give the players something pretty tasty to get approval, though.
by Vlad on Apr 15, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Walker(from DITO)
Based on Neil Walker’s .190 so far at AAA,including his 0-4 w/2 K’s yesterday,he wouldn’t appear to be ready for a big-league looksee anytime soon…..
by rissaldar on Apr 15, 2008 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You're probably right
but I’d still like to see him.
by DITO on Apr 15, 2008 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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