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Worst GM Poll: Dan O'Dowd vs. J.P. Ricciardi

UPDATE: This poll is now closed.

For our second match in Round One, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd (11) faces J.P. Ricciardi (6) of the Jays. Bill Smith vs. Jon Daniels is still open; that match will close once the next poll goes up.

Both of these may seem like odd choices - after all, the Rockies are the defending N.L. champs, and Ricciardi was once a sabermetric darling who worked under Billy Beane. But they both belong here. O'Dowd bumbled around for years, signing Mike Hampton to a horrific contract, playing Neifi Perez and wringing his hands about how to win at altitude without bothering to try the unconventional idea of just putting good players on the field. O'Dowd and the Rockies racked up six straight losing seasons between 2001 and 2006. In his defense, he's got a decent core of young talent, and there's that World Series.

As for Ricciardi, the beginning of his tenure was characterized by the worst aspects of "Moneyball" - not spending money, and drafting college players. The former wasn't really his fault, but the latter certainly was. Ricciardi only got David Bush and the disappointing Russ Adams in his first draft, in 2002. In 2003 he got Aaron Hill and Shaun Marcum. His 2004 draft wasn't any better, and his 2005 draft, in which he took Ricky Romero with the sixth overall pick with numerous future stars still on the board (O'Dowd grabbed Troy Tulowitzki one pick later), was just awful. The Romero pick was especially uninspired - why reach for a low-upside college arm when you can have Tulowitzki or Cameron Maybin or Jay Bruce? Ricciardi's ultra-conservative approach in the draft has utterly failed to produce stars (if 2006 top pick Travis Snider makes it, he'll be the first), and how are you supposed to knock off the Yankees and Red Sox without stars?

In his defense, the Jays under Ricciardi have never been bad. Also, Ricciardi has eased up on  the college-first draft philosophy in the last two years, and ownership has given him some money to work with. Regrettably, Ricciardi has used that money to do as much as any mid-market GM to run up salaries for free agents, notably dumping $47 million on reliever / injury magnet B.J. Ryan. Many of Ricciardi's trades and signings have been fine in isolation, but most of them would have made a lot more sense if the Jays were just a player or two from finishing first, which they aren't and haven't been. Or perhaps Ricciardi's happy to come in third? Without an infusion of talent, he may not continue to be able to achieve even that modest goal - Tampa Bay is breathing down his neck.

Poll
Which GM is WORSE?
Dan O'Dowd (Colorado Rockies)
73 votes
J.P. Ricciardi (Blue Jays)
219 votes

292 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments

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Go Dan

O’Dowd gets especially low marks from me for all those years he spent not making the playoffs in the NL West. He’s been the GM since 1999 and the team has only made the playoffs once. I think he has a better team than JP right now and he may have a better job performance record over the past few seasons, but he’s still climbing out of a big hole.

I don’t like what JP is doing with the Jays, for the reasons Charlie mentioned above, but I’m going to cut him some slack because his tenure has coincided with a run of Yankee / Red Sox dominance.

by scoreboard on Apr 16, 2008 8:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I voted for JP...

.. he seems have a very Littlefield-esque philosophy, but with more $ to burn. O’Dowd certainly loses points for signing Hampton, but don’t forget he later got rid of him as well.

by humbucker on Apr 16, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah he got rid of Hampton...

...and all he had to do was take on $52 million worth of contracts for Charles Johnson and Preston Wilson.

It was a fine trade, but it didn’t come close to fixing the problem the contract created.

by scoreboard on Apr 16, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

O'Dowd should not be in this poll...

Seriously? Dan O’Dowd? You mean the guy who’s had his farm system at or near the top of Baseball America’s list of best in the majors the last few years? The guy who drafted and developed Holliday, Atkins, Tulowitzki and Hawpe and who signed and developed Morales, Jimenez, Corpas, etc. out of Latin America? The guy who took a team with a payroll of less than $60 million to the World Series, despite playing in the pitcher-killing altitude of Denver? That guy?

(Oh, I forgot—he made a bad signing eight years ago, so obviously he sucks.)

Some have argued that the Rockies were lucky to get hot at the right time last year. The fact is they had the best Pythagorean record in the National League in ‘07. They were the best team by the numbers, and a much more legitimate WS representative than the D’Backs (who were outscored by 20 runs on the year), the Cubs (who were lucky to play in the Central) or the Phils (who were lucky to have the Mets fall apart in front of them).

O’Dowd is the kind of GM Bucs fans should be clamoring to get—someone who’s shown the ability to build a winner through scouting and player development, despite huge payroll constraints. Declaring him one of the worst GM’s based on one poor signing in 2000 (which was made in part because the previous managing general partner, Jerry McMorris, was pushing the team to get into the free agent market) is just silly.

Better to include Mike Flanagan, the de facto GM for the O’s (MacPhail is in more of a Stan Kasten-style executive role, I believe) and a holdover from the pre-MacPhail Era. Admittedly, Flanagan’s had a stacked deck against him having to deal with Angelos, but the Orioles have been a joke for years. And MacPhail doesn’t give him cover. Last time I checked, when he was in Chicago, he hired Dusty Baker and let Baker destroy two HOF arms (Wood and Prior) and give legendary out-machines Corey Patterson and Neifi Perez about 1000 AB’s a season.

by mgo on Apr 16, 2008 1:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

O'Dowd may have built a winner...

...but he sure took his sweet time about it, and burned through a lot of $$ on the way. Hell, his Mike Hampton contract still hasn’t run out!

by Vlad on Apr 16, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Flanagan got fired recently.

O’Dowd does seem to have learned his lesson, but it took him a very long time to learn it.

Co-Author Of The Fourth Most Popular NL West Based Blog On SBN

by Andrew on Apr 16, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah. Like someone points out below, there are five GMs that haven’t really been around enough to judge just yet and therefore aren’t in the contest, so O’Dowd’s 11 seed suggests he’s pretty much a middle-of-the-pack GM. Which I think is fair for a guy who’s had two winning seasons out of eight. If the core of Holliday, Tulowitzki, et. al. is good enough to keep winning (which I’m honestly kind of skeptical about), O’Dowd won’t be in the contest next time we do it.

by Charlie on Apr 16, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We held a vote on BTF...

...and took away JP’s sabr-friendly card when he gave $5M to Hillenbrand.

by Vlad on Apr 16, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Vlad

who’d you vote for?

by scoreboard on Apr 16, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

never mind, apparently you can see people’s votes when you click on their handles

by scoreboard on Apr 16, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can see peoples votes?

In Soviet Russia SB Nation, the GM votes for you!

http://whereisvanslyke.blogspot.com
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/mlb

by whygavs on Apr 16, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of Hillenbrand...

...this is one crazy-ass story.

by Vlad on Apr 16, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Vlad

Teams who have not been to the WS since O’Dowd’s first full season in 2000—Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle, Texas, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Montreal/Wash., Chi. Cubs, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, San Diego, LA Dodgers….I guess they’re all taking their sweet time, too. Most of those teams have burned through a lot more money than the Rockies, who have been between $50-60M in their annual player budget the last five years or so.

It’s naturally going to take sweet time to build from within, especially when the previous administration had done little to no Latin American scouting and had left a pretty much barren farm system. The guys at the ML level today are the fruit of grassroots investments made many years earlier, when O’Dowd was being pilloried. The Hampton (and Neagle) signings were bad, no doubt, but they were made in large part at the behest of different managing ownership, who were worried about losing fans after the excitement of the new team and new ballpark faded. Most people thought the Rockies could never get out of the dead-money hole those contracts created. Gotta give the guy his due for proving a lot of people (including me) wrong on that score.

by mgo on Apr 16, 2008 2:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

O'Dowd

One of my big objections to O’Dowd-as-quality-GM is that he spent a lot of that time on the ML level flailing between different strategies, without ever taking enough time to fully implement and analyze one. Most GMs have a particular strategy for winning: Power arms and power bats, groundball arms and infield defense, etc. You look back at their moves, and whether they work or not, they all seem to be building toward something. If you look back at O’Dowd’s full tenure, there isn’t any real sense of a consistent approach. He seemed to be just throwing it at the wall to see whether it stuck.

He’s also had some notable talent-evaluation errors above and beyond the Neagle and Hampton contracts. He traded Chone Figgins for Kimera Bartee, for example. He got nothing of significance in veteran-for-prospect trades of Larry Walker, Pedro Astacio, and Neifi Perez (who did, it should be noted, have some trade value at the time). He paid an enormous amount of money for Todd Helton’s decline phase: 16.6M every year from 2006-2010, 19.1M in 2011, and then either 23M for 2012 or a 4.6M buyout.

The idea that he needed all that time to rebuild the farm system is flawed. There wasn’t much talent in the system when he got there, but a top draft pick can get to the majors in three or four years. Why did O’Dowd need eight to rebuild the system, especially when he had decent draft position? Because he didn’t handle his first drafts well. He took Matt Harrington with his first-rounder in 2000, kicking off the biggest fiasco in draft history. He gave away his first-rounder to the Mets in 2001 (which they used on Aaron Heilman), and didn’t sign his second-rounder. He didn’t sign his second-rounder again in 2002, and that turned out to be Micah Owings. Their scouting those years was fine, but he didn’t do a good job of handling the actual draft process itself.

He’s not a horrible GM, but weaknesses like those are enough to make him middle-of-the-road, which is about right for an 11 seed once you cross off all the new hires that can’t be graded yet.

by Vlad on Apr 16, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Time Frame

If we’re judging a GM’s entire tenure, O’Dowd is the clear winner (loser). But if we’re judging which GM we’d like to run our team going forward, then the choice is a lot closer.

I actually think JP gets the shaft from a lot of fans. Yes, he’s made some bad moves, but he also seems to understand the value of OBP and fielding. If fans understood how good the Blue Jay fielders were, they’d give JP more credit. He also had a payroll in the $50MM range until the last couple years.

Season – Win – Payroll (MM)
2002 – 78 – 77
2003 – 86 – 51
2004 – 67 – 50
2005 – 80 – 48
2006 – 87 – 72
2007 – 83 – 82

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/toronto-blue-jays_05.html
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 17, 2008 10:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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