Pirates hire BP writer

by basmati on Apr 17, 2008 3:24 PM EDT Comment 23 comments

I'm not a sabermetrician, and I am not really familiar with Dan Fox, but maybe others can comment on how significant this is, and if this writer has any particular interests or areas of expertise. I thought it was at least interesting and a good sign that they are looking for new perspectives. Scroll down to the bottom of the article, and it reveals that the Pirates front office has hired a contributor to Baseball Prospectus.

UPDATE by Charlie: This is pretty interesting. Fox's work with BP has included the development of a system to evaluate fielding that takes into account factors like pitcher handedness. This could be of particular relevance to the Pirates, who have tried to build around left-handed pitching and now have three lefty groundball pitchers in their rotation.

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Good catch

I dropped him an e-mail with an interview request. Hard to say whether he’ll go for it, but I guess you never know until you try.

by Vlad on Apr 17, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe . . .

. . . they’ll have him run a simulation to see whether Nyjer Morgan should bat third.

by WTM on Apr 17, 2008 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Now, see, that's mean.

I was in a really good mood, and you had to go and spoil it.

From the free articles in this guy’s BPro back catalog, he seems significantly less deranged than Mac’s lineup-optimization guy.

by Vlad on Apr 17, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sky

In five years, the Pirates will be as successful as the Indians. The question now becomes, are you Pirate fans ready for that?

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 17, 2008 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Suc . . . cess . . . ful

Does . . . not . . . compute.

by WTM on Apr 17, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can barely remember what that was like...

I was 12

by Deaner on Apr 17, 2008 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dan Fox

Devising systems is great.

But if Dan Fox cannot evaluate talent and can only devise systems, I am afraid that he is going to be fairly useless to the Pirates.

Until the Pirates fill the organization with front office personnel and field scouts who can evaluate talent and know a “player/prospect” when they see one, the organization is just putting way too high a priority on the sabermetrics BS.

by thegunner on Apr 17, 2008 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If sabermetrics is BS...

...then Pirates should not use it at all.

But it’s not BS.

Ergo…

Steve Z

by steve_z on Apr 17, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The scouts . . .

. . . evidently thought Rivas was a great defensive player. Fox figured out that he sucks. Too bad Fox wasn’t around when the bad decision got made.

by WTM on Apr 17, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, not using sabermetrics...

...has certainly worked wonders for us in the past.

by Vlad on Apr 18, 2008 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed.

Willful ignorance of statistical analysis is one of the reasons why the Pirates are going to break the losing-season streak this year.

Formerly known as Econolodge

by Willton on Apr 18, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously

Just consider the team’s never-ending quest for LH power. Even something as simple as looking at hit charts would have shown The Nitwit Formerly Known As MLB’s Worst GM that Randall Simon and Sean Casey weren’t suited to PNC, but that McLouth and Doumit are ideal for it. Some very simple research would have shown that pitchers with below average K rates don’t succeed in the majors, which should have led Ed Creech to change his draft strategy about 180 degrees. The Pirates have paid a heavy price for their anti-analytical approach to baseball. Paying even a little attention to stats and analysis can’t help but improve the scouting.

by WTM on Apr 18, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Analyzing Statistics Versus Sabermetrics

WTM is right. It is very important to properly analyze statistics and to properly evaluate players.

But it is pretty hard to utilize sabermetrics when you are evaluating high school and college players. They don’t exist; and, if they do exist, they would not be at all meaningful.

When it comes right down to it, you must find people who know a player when they see one.

Sabermetrics are just another arrow in the quiver - nothing more. Even Bill James, the pioneer of sabermetrics, says the same thing.

Anybody who believes that sabermetrics is the answer to the Pirates’ problems better go back to square one and start over.

by thegunner on Apr 18, 2008 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How many problems do we have?

Even with a magic bullet, it’d take some fancy trick shooting to nail ‘em all on one shot.

by Vlad on Apr 18, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think.....

Anybody is suggesting it’s the “answer” as in the silver bullet, or that there is one answer. The point here is that they are hiring another guy with a good reputation, successful in his field who is perceived to be a smart guy. Seriously, pardon my language, but what the fuck? Do people have to rip the organization for EVERY g damn thing they do? We all know they’ve sucked for 15 years. Can we please move on and evaluate the new guys for what they are trying to do.

Just criticizing them with no insight is not adding anything to the discussion.

by dtoddwin on Apr 18, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you could count on one hand all the great sabermetricians around, Dan Fox would be one of them.

by tangotiger on Apr 18, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tangotiger.....

For those of you who aren’t aware tangotiger, commenting above, is one of the leaders in the field as well. He has done a great deal of cutting edge research which is all over the web. Thanks for checking in on the site.

by dtoddwin on Apr 18, 2008 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Tango knows his stuff.

by Vlad on Apr 18, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seeing as how . . .

. . . the Pirates continue to play a guy whom Fox has concluded is the fourth worst defensive secondbaseman of the last fifty years nearly every day at shortstop, the question is probably not whether Fox is qualified, but whether the team will listen to him.

by WTM on Apr 18, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No question.....

Rivas has been a huge disappointment. The obvious question is why ostensibly sign Gomez to play shortstop if he can’t play shortstop? Bixler looks absolutely lost at the plate. They talk about Bocock in SF or DeWitt in LA being overmatched, but man I don’t think Bixler has a future based on the limited times I’ve seen him.

Huntington and Connolly hired Fox to help coordinate overall development. In his article on the BP website announcing the move he sounded very enthusiastic and said those within the organization have very welcoming. But, obviously, he isn’t going to have any impact in the short term as to who is on the field. Man it really makes you appreciate Jack, and even Izturis.

by dtoddwin on Apr 18, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh . . .

and even Izturis

Let’s not get carried away.

by WTM on Apr 18, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bixler

Russell said that he didn’t bring Bixler up to have him sit.

Yet he keeps running Rivas out to SS.

If you bring a guy like Bixler up, you have to let him play consistently to see what he can do. He is swinging through fastballs too much and he needs to throw more “over the top” instead of 3/4 or with almost sidearm sling, making his throws “tail” badly.

But he has a lot more talent and upside than Rivas and he should be playing everyday until he shows that he is overmatched.

by thegunner on Apr 18, 2008 6:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs