Pirates vs. Cubs, 19 April 2008
by Charlie on Apr 18, 2008 11:03 PM EDT
84 comments
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, Apr 19, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
Tom Gorzelanny and Jason Marquis, 1:05 PM. Here's the box.
In honor of the Cubs, I declare today Pessimism Day! Well, only after I wrote what follows and realized it was a huge downer, but still. This one's for you, Chicago.
Dave Cameron's recent article over at FanGraphs about Justin Verlander's loss of velocity this year had me wondering about Gorzelanny, so I checked. Here are the average velocities on Gorzelanny's fastballs the past three years:
2006: 91.7 MPH
2007 89.9 MPH
2008 88.3 MPH
Of course, Gorzelanny's only had a few starts this year and radar guns aren't the most reliable tools in the world, but these numbers didn't surprise me; his velocity has appeared to be off all year. Taken on its own, the loss of velocity is not a trivial matter, as Verlander's case shows. Combined with the "shoulder irritation" Gorzelanny suffered this Spring and his abuse at the hands of Jim Tracy last Fall, it's grounds for pretty serious concern. That's what I'd watch for today.
By the way, it's off topic, but check out the decline in Matt Morris's average fastball velocities:
2005: 89.2 MPH, 5.47 K/9
2006: 88.5 MPH, 5.07 K/9
2007 87.4 MPH, 4.62 K/9
2008 86.0 MPH, 3.24 K/9
The correlations between those numbers couldn't be any more clear. Barring a major turnaround, Morris's days of being a useful starter are behind him.
-P- One more link: The mothership has an article about the Pirates' bench. I'm not really sure what the point of it is, but it mostly just made me think, "But the bench has been horrible, hasn't it?" So I checked the stats and yes, it has.
In fact, it's startling how much of the offense has come from just three players:
| NAME | OPS | Comments |
| Nate McLouth | 1.098 | Great |
| Xavier Nady | 1.019 | Great |
| Jason Bay | .881 | A resurgence? |
| ************** | ***** | *************** |
| Ryan Doumit | .841 | Very good |
| Chris Gomez | .711 | Useful |
| ************** | ***** | *************** |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | .658 | Bad |
| Ronny Paulino | .625 | Worse |
| Jose Bautista | .507 | Awful |
| Freddy Sanchez | .498 | Hideous; shoulder trouble? |
| Nyjer Morgan | .492 | Dismal |
| Luis Rivas | .462 | Crime against baseball, but somehow not worst hitter on team |
| Adam LaRoche | .458 | Disastrous; it's April, after all |
| Brian Bixler | .412 | Running out of synonyms for "awful" |
| Jack Wilson | .298 | Fighting injuries |
When the dust clears, what will we have here? McLouth and Nady are pretty plainly playing over their heads. The Pirates will almost certainly make up the difference by getting something from LaRoche, Sanchez and Wilson. Still, it's startling how little all but the top five guys are contributing.
Whatever happens, the bench is pretty likely to continue to be terrible; the Pirates just have too many marginal players for that to not be the case. They have exactly one bench guy - Gomez - who's doing a decent job. We've all hated watching Luis Rivas out there, and while Rivas is a complete abomination, it's not like we're going to run out of reasons to want to pull our hair out once Wilson returns and gets Rivas out of there, because there are several other guys on the bench who are hitting as badly as Rivas is, just in more limited roles. Once someone else gets hurt, who will the Pirates turn to? Steve Pearce is the only ready solution.
One way to improve the bench might be to send Morgan down and bring up Kevin Thompson, who's off to a pretty good start at Indianapolis. Thompson would at least provide a big of right-handed power, which the bench has too little of right now. He's probably be only a marginal improvement, but that's the best Indianapolis has.
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At least
Russell ran out the best lineup possible today.
Aside from day to day health issues and occasional rest, this should be the lineup every day.
by DITO on Apr 19, 2008 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wrote this post yesterday and had it auto-programmed to post at 9:00 this morning, but I guess it didn’t. Oh well.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Did it autopost
at one (eastern), or did you just manually post it?
by DITO on Apr 19, 2008 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I just manually posted it. I think it saved the post as a draft or something. I’m not sure why.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Murton just recalled today. If I were a GM in need of outfielders, I’d try to trade for Murton. He should not have been in the minors.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice pitching by Marquis to get Doumit. He gets really nice movement on his pitches.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alright
Bambi lets the pitcher hit with two outs
by DITO on Apr 19, 2008 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wish I had time, youth, and a bigger brain
I love reading about pitch f/x stuff and just fiddling with any kind of numbers when I have a few minute. Nice post Charlie. I’m a big believer that the gun doesn’t lie. Sure, sometimes it’s skewed, but if it’s off, it’s usually by like 5mph so you know something’s clearly not right. Generally, I think most guns are pretty honest nowadays.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gorzo
is between 89-91 pretty consistently and he is spotting his fastball fairly well.
He’s in a three-run hole through 1 2/3 innings, though
by DITO on Apr 19, 2008 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I was just about to write that his velocity is OK, but his command is off, but it’s the offspeed stuff. He can’t throw it for a strike.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Charlie
I know you’ve said before you are a big Corey Hart fan…he just hit is first HR
by DITO on Apr 19, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cool. I like him a lot, and he’s on one of my fantasy teams.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now or never for the Sugarbombs
Cueto, Lincecum, and Ian Kennedy need to come up big for me today Charlie, and I hope I can hold off your offense.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
First time I've started him this year
BAL isn’t a great matchup right now, but he’s been coming around. I doubt I’ll make up the W deficit, but maybe the ratios.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gah! Exactly
Freddy is so good putting the bat on the ball, I have no idea why he swings at everything.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My god
it’s a circus on the field, how do the cubs keep making plays like this?
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It looks like the Cubs need to do some pop-up drills.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Pirate s drop these balls
The Cubs look just like the Pirates, except the ball is finding their glove.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
still good morning for a few minutes in my timezone
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good night
Not three straight pitches, but saw it coming. I’m surprised he fouled the one off.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's ridiculous. I don't know how he turns it around
He swings over two sliders. Fouls off a slider/cutter. Then looks at a fastball belt high down the middle.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gorzelanny’s having all kinds of problems here.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gorzo just doesn’t have it. I don’t know if it’s velocity or what but he can’t make anyone offer out of the zone and can’t make them miss in the zone.
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oh god
well, now the Pirates “win” if they score before the game is over
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is exactly the point at which I give up and start shame-facedly enjoying the schadenfreude.
by EmmaOMG on Apr 19, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, really. :)
Unfortunately, it feels like it’s been about two weeks since we’ve been in the game.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also unfortunately, Marquis seems to be at his best on pitches 60-90.
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 2:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
why is it
if the fielder makes an error on a batted ball you don’t get a hit but if he makes an error on a SB attempt you still get the SB?
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Did the runner get an extra base?
If not, I’m not sure. But the Cubs stole, then got an xb on the error.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
marquis
is not as good as we are making him look
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Looking at velocity
(Small sample size warning!)
If anyone doubts that even 2-3 mph matters, look at Jeff Suppan at FanGraphs. From 2005-2007 his fastball averaged just shy of 88mph. He won 40 games, pitched 590 innings and his K/BB was 332/200. ERA+ was about 108.
In 2008, in 17.3 innings, his fastball is averaging 85.4, his k/bb is 5/6, and his ERA+ is 87.
Of course, he’s two-hitting the Reds through 5 today. I wonder what his velocity’s been.
by azibuck on Apr 19, 2008 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
MLB Gameday
or whatever it is called says about 86
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
meaning McLouth’s extended streak, not the velocity comment…..that’s bad news :(
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, y'all
Checkin’ in. What’d I miss?
crickets chirp
Oh, we’re getting creamed again.
by bucdaddy on Apr 19, 2008 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A RUN
MY GOD SIR A RUN, you missed that
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ack. We come back from commercial and already the Cubs have hit the ball to the wall.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 2:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why is Yates out there? Shouldn’t it be Meek?
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it’s actually Meek wearing Yates’ uniform?
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no
we need to save meek just in case we come back and go extras :)
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you kidding me?
You can’t get one of four fastballs over with the bases loaded?
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No, it’s Meek, I’m pretty sure. That can’t possibly be Yates. :)
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Grabow in. Where is Meek? Has he not pitched recently?
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that might be my cue
to work on the yard. I do want to see McLouth bat again…
by poorboywilly on Apr 19, 2008 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can’t really blame you. I have some busywork to do here at the computer, or I’d probably do the same.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, I’m not sure what’s worse, this guy at singing or Nyjer at hitting.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There’s Meek, finally. What’s the single-game record for walks?
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
WHAT. A. TRAINWRECK.
Seriously how will this end? I can’t turn it off, I’m hypnotized.
by EmmaOMG on Apr 19, 2008 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We’re going to have a lot of these, just because the back end of the roster is so bad. If we have one of these situations where it’s 7-0 and they take the starters out, chances are it’s going to get worse, because other teams’ second stringers are better than ours.
by Charlie on Apr 19, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
charlie
I guess you’re not a potted plant.
by bolton on Apr 19, 2008 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Train wreck
watching this team so far this year is like watching a train wreck. You know what’s coming…you can’t bear to look…but you still peek out the corner of your eye anyway.
by Thunder on Apr 19, 2008 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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