Pirates vs. Mets, 30 April 2008
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets
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My take on the batting order...
This how I feel it should go down (and no, I’m not joking). The rationale is at the bottom.
1. Bay – LF
2. Sanchez – 2b
3. McLouth – CF
4. Doumit – C
5. Nady – RF
6. Bautista – 3b
7. Gomez – SS
8. Laroche – 1B
9. Gorzo – Mound
Bay has been given the green light this year, and even though he is no Juan Pierre, he may be the second fastest starter. He manages to get a decent amount of walks. He only drives himself in (note his rediculous HR-RBI statistics) so it won’t matter if anyone is on base in front of him or not. Seems like a credible lead-off guy to me.
Sanchez is a second baseman with even less power this year than previous years. He will still make decent contact though and once his average starts to rise he could become a very good singles hitter. Weren’t we supposed to be a smart, singles hitting, first-to-third kind of team anyway?
McLouth of course is everyone’s hero this year. He drives in runs! Imagine that! A player hitting third, with power, and the ability to drive in men in scoring position!
Doumit at cleanup. Switch hitter with power. Plus, things just seem more likely to go our way when he is in the lineup. (Witness last nights throwing error by Reyes when Doumit pinch-hit in the 9th)
Nady – Power and RBI’s. Typical 5th spot.
Bautista – Everyone wants to move struggling hitters down in the order. Bautista is a confidence guy. Move him up. What is the harm?
Gomez – I like his plate approach. He has that veteran mentality. He knows that his job is simply to keep the inning alive. A slap single here and there out of the 7 spot will suffice for now. (Other options being Luis “Where Am I?” Rivas, and Brian “I’m scared to death!” Bixler)
LaRoche – I like Adam. I think he will hit. But last night, with the bases loaded, I could almost feel him begging to be walked. He did not want to swing that bat. Batting 8th might allow him to get some walks and get on base to make him feel part of the team again.
Pitchers spot – Tonight played by Tommy Gorzelanny who has my favorite all-time name to say with an overly-exaggerated Pittsburgh accent.
by Crazy,ButStillAFan on Apr 30, 2008 10:41 AM EDT 0 recs
Bay only drives himself in...
...because he never comes to the plate with anyone on base. Only 18 AB with RISP so far this year. For the sake of comparison, Nady, the current RBI leader, has 33. Nate, who’s second in RBI, has 28.
Also, the team is plainly unwilling to give Gomez PT at SS. As such, we’re probably facing a choice between Rivas and Bixler there. That, or an even more cover-your-eyes defensive arrangement with a sore-shouldered Freddy at SS, and some combination of Bautista, Gomez, and Mientkiewicz at 2B and 3B.
by Vlad on
Apr 30, 2008 10:52 AM EDT
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Well, using your own comparison...
Bay: 18 AB w/ RISP and 9 RBI = 50% chance of RBI when Batting with RISP
Nady: 33 AB w/RISP and 23 RBI = 69% chance of RBI when batting with RISP
McLouth: 28 AB w/ RISP and 21 RBI = 75% chance of RBI when batting with RISP
Am I missing something from your argument?
by Crazy,ButStillAFan on
Apr 30, 2008 11:06 AM EDT
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Yeah, two things:
1) 30 PA is an absurdly small sample size for drawing any sort of conclusion about anything, and 18 PA is even more so. Bay isn’t going to put up a .551 OPS with RISP for the year – he’s a career .926 hitter in those situations. As such, making a major decision based on a tiny little sample (which will, in all likelihood, even out as the year progresses) is unwise.
2) If you normalize Bay up to the same 30-ish PA (not AB, BTW) as Nady and McLouth, most of the RBI gap goes away. He moves from 9 RBI to 15 if he gets the same number of opportunities that they do. Thus, about half of the gap on which you’re basing your decision is a function of a thing that Bay can’t control, i.e. the generally poor 2-hole hitting of Freddy and Rivas thus far in 2008.
by Vlad on
Apr 30, 2008 11:26 AM EDT
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Actually...you are missing something
Bay has 4 solo homers…those RBI didn’t occur when batting with RISP. His 2 run HR was with a man on first. Therefore…he’s knocked in runs with a RISP a grand total of once this season…and the Pirates were already ahead 6-1 when he hit his 3 run HR.
by Thunder on
Apr 30, 2008 11:54 AM EDT
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I like it...
the one thing McLouth has is the ability to steal bags better than Bay, but he hasn’t done so this year—if you are hitting doubles and hrs every time you step up to the plate, you won’t have that many SB attempts.
If you flop the top a bit and make it McLouth, Sanchez, Doumit, Bay I would probably be indifferent to the one you posted. The best part about your lineup is dropping LaRoche to the eight-hole. If he is going to start every day he can’t hit behind Nady who’s been getting on base at a .360 clip.
Bautista, though, not much of an upgrade…
by DITO on
Apr 30, 2008 11:31 AM EDT
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Like your idea about changing the line-up. Need to get more guys on base for Mclouth for the Pirates to be competitive.
by justin3007 on
Apr 30, 2008 1:19 PM EDT
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Can anyone tell me why
why my television guide has Fox Sports replaying last night’s Pens game in a six-hour block from 12:30pm until 6:30pm?
This has to be a mistake, right? Are they replaying all three games from the Rangers series?
Can I watch baseball today??? (please say yes please say yes please say yes)
by DITO on Apr 30, 2008 11:34 AM EDT 0 recs
no dice
buccos are off FSN until tomorrow night
by johnnycuff on
Apr 30, 2008 12:12 PM EDT
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Not to carry this out too much, but...
First, I do realize it is a small sample size, and of course I realize that nobody would ever put Bay first in the order, but I still don’t think it is a bad idea at the present time.
As for your second point, normalizing Bay up to 30 plate appearances lacks any relevance. Whether he is driving in 9 in 18 plate appearances with RISP or 15 with 30 plate appearances, the percentage is still the same. He is being outdone, currently, by a large percentage by McLouth.
I agree that Bay will not continue down this path. I hope that he starts driving them in. At this point in time however, he isn’t.
by Crazy,ButStillAFan on Apr 30, 2008 11:34 AM EDT 0 recs
Vlad's argument is a good one,
but I believe McLouth will continue to hit better than Bay for the rest of the season, even if McLouth cools off and Bay heats up a little.
Maybe what this idiot (me) predicts for the rest of the season doesn’t matter, but to me, McLouth is the better no. 3 hitter, and Bay is a serviceable lead off man—he gets on base.
by DITO on
Apr 30, 2008 11:42 AM EDT
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This lacks math
Bay: 18 AB w/ RISP and 9 RBI = 50% chance of RBI when Batting with RISP
Nady: 33 AB w/RISP and 23 RBI = 69% chance of RBI when batting with RISP
McLouth: 28 AB w/ RISP and 21 RBI = 75% chance of RBI when batting with RISP
Those aren’t chance percentages. Your premise, that Bay isn’t driving in runs with his opportunities, and Nady and McLouth are, is correct, but the chance that McLouth will get an RBI batting with RISP is not 75%.
by azibuck on
Apr 30, 2008 12:33 PM EDT
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Yeah...
I was just doing some simple division, nothing complicated, in order to show that based on the stats put forth by Vlad regarding the ABs with RISP of those three batters, it is clear that McLouth and Nady are far exceeding Bay.
Excuse my poor mathematical reasoning.
by Crazy,ButStillAFan on
Apr 30, 2008 12:37 PM EDT
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Sample size
what is a reasonable sample size for an individual or a team? Is 25 games a good sample size for a team. Dejan calls LaRoche’s 3 for 26 with RISP this season “mind-numbing”. What does that make Bay’s? The Pirates as a team are running at .246 with RISP.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not singling out Bay, but using his numbers as a pointer to the problem. His slugging average is rather empty and meaningless if it doesn’t help produce runs. It seems like if we have runners in scoring position…Nady or McLouth better be up…because no one else is doing the job. Bay’s and LaRoche’s failures are obvious, but until DK’s article this morning, no one in the press put any numbers to it. And by the way…who has McLouth been knocking in…since supposedly we’ve had 3 black holes (LaRoche, Bautista and SS) plus the pitcher hitting in front of him? Yet Bay is supposedly not getting the opportunities with McLouth and Sanchez hitting in front of him?
If sample size is a problem…what is a reasonable sample size for a starting pitcher? Is 5 starts reasonable? If it is, then Morris shouldn’t have been getting stuck with pitchforks any more than Gorzo…if the claims he is healthy are to be believed. Yet…Morris was pretty much run out of town…where Gorzo is getting all sorts of slack.
by Thunder on Apr 30, 2008 12:18 PM EDT 0 recs
BTW...
with ANYONE on base…Bay is 6 for 37 this season.
by Thunder on Apr 30, 2008 12:23 PM EDT 0 recs
So we all agree...
Bay will lead off tonight.
Glad we made that decision.
Next I suggest that with regard to Gorzo, he should be given a maximum number of walks allowed before he will be automatically pulled. Much the same way some pitchers are yanked once they reach a threshold pitch count.
In his last outing I believe he had no hits through 5 innings. However, in my world, a walk is roughly equal to a single…so in my mind he had 5 hits through 5 innings. Not nearly as promissing as that no-no he had going would suggest.
We’ll get this ship righted in no time.
by Crazy,ButStillAFan on
Apr 30, 2008 12:32 PM EDT
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Game has been delayed 10-20 minutes.
There was some type of water main break outside the stadium, so they are allowing extra time for fans to get there.
by hisjazziness on Apr 30, 2008 1:09 PM EDT 0 recs
Did a little followup
Lousy as they may be…LaRoche’s batting statistics with men on base are actually better than Bay’s (.174 vs .162)...with similar RBI totals. RISP is LaRoche .115 vs Bay .111.
OTOH…Nate is at .364 with men on….409 with runners in scoring position. Nady is .304 with men on….333 with men in scoring position.
by Thunder on Apr 30, 2008 1:51 PM EDT 0 recs
do they actually CALL the ball, or just kind of run around the field on defense?
by poorboywilly on Apr 30, 2008 2:01 PM EDT 0 recs
Yeah. Perez and Gorzelanny seem to have some agreement going.
by Charlie on
Apr 30, 2008 2:20 PM EDT
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I can’t get it to work, but I’ve had trouble with it on this computer before.
by Charlie on
Apr 30, 2008 2:33 PM EDT
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I’m on my Mac at work and can’t install the required plugin :/. If this game holds up, though, I might just watch the replay later at home.
.500 or bust...
by phillybucco on
Apr 30, 2008 2:34 PM EDT
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isn't it ironic
that we are crushing former pirates pitchers
by poorboywilly on
Apr 30, 2008 2:35 PM EDT
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lol
one of the NY announcers are blaming the delay for Perez’s failures
by poorboywilly on Apr 30, 2008 2:36 PM EDT 0 recs
I hope now that gorzo has a 7 run lead, he can start to pitch better
by MarcB on Apr 30, 2008 2:40 PM EDT 0 recs
what the hell
how can gorzo go from such a great at bat against an aging slugger to not even being able to throw a strike
by poorboywilly on Apr 30, 2008 2:41 PM EDT 0 recs
The mlb.tv feed...
must be waaaay behind espn’s gamecast.
.500 or bust...
by phillybucco on Apr 30, 2008 2:44 PM EDT 0 recs
You guys should start trying to be a little more positive. I think this will be a very productive outing for Gorzo, now that he does not have to worry about runs.
by MarcB on Apr 30, 2008 2:46 PM EDT 0 recs
Gorzo
Could he be taking something off his pitches to regain his control? The MLB gamecast says he is topping out at 86 or so.
by SpacePirate on Apr 30, 2008 2:48 PM EDT 0 recs
the mets gun
says 91 i think at his highest, I wasn’t watching it last inning though
by poorboywilly on
Apr 30, 2008 2:49 PM EDT
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is there something with the gun at shea?
i was listening to the radio broadcast for a bit last night and they said billy wagner was throwing 91.
by johnnycuff on
Apr 30, 2008 2:51 PM EDT
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we’re due for a game like this. haven’t had a laugher in a while.
if matt morris were starting this game, instead of a “laugher” this would be a called a “one run deficit”
by johnnycuff on Apr 30, 2008 2:49 PM EDT 0 recs
today
gorzo: effectively wild
game thread: effectively dead
by johnnycuff on Apr 30, 2008 3:24 PM EDT 0 recs
uh oh
TG hurt?
Raise the Jolly Roger!
http://raisethejollyroger21.blogspot.com
by Raise the Jolly Roger on Apr 30, 2008 3:27 PM EDT 0 recs
Looks like he blew himself out on that last one :/
.500 or bust...
by phillybucco on
Apr 30, 2008 3:28 PM EDT
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NOOOOOO!
JVB warming up in the ‘pen.
.500 or bust...
by phillybucco on Apr 30, 2008 3:30 PM EDT 0 recs
presumably they want to have an extended look at jvb, since he’s probably not going to be up here for a long time.
by johnnycuff on
Apr 30, 2008 3:40 PM EDT
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let him get the last out...
then sit him down!
by Crazy,ButStillAFan on Apr 30, 2008 3:31 PM EDT 0 recs
Time to trade the X-man...
Do you think he has upped his trade value to the Mets after this series? Too bad they don’t have much to offer. Can there be a three-way trade that works?
by SpacePirate on Apr 30, 2008 3:38 PM EDT 0 recs
haha...
Did you hear the Mets announcer? “Even Brian Bixler is getting hits!”
by Crazy,ButStillAFan on Apr 30, 2008 3:45 PM EDT 0 recs
Nate up, men on base...
did anyone doubt what would happen there?
by Crazy,ButStillAFan on Apr 30, 2008 3:48 PM EDT 0 recs
wow
at this point the bucco announcers are just considering this funny
Raise the Jolly Roger!
http://raisethejollyroger21.blogspot.com
by Raise the Jolly Roger on Apr 30, 2008 3:48 PM EDT 0 recs
We must sacrifice a water main before every game. It has been decreed!
.500 or bust...
by phillybucco on Apr 30, 2008 3:50 PM EDT 0 recs
wonderful
enter JVB…..is this a safe lead?
don’t answer that
Raise the Jolly Roger!
http://raisethejollyroger21.blogspot.com
by Raise the Jolly Roger on Apr 30, 2008 3:52 PM EDT 0 recs
I should have gone to this game
did people see the ballpark survey rankings?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/specials/fansurvey/2008/index.html?eref=T1
by vherub on Apr 30, 2008 3:53 PM EDT 0 recs
bits from that article
What is the worst incident you’ve witnessed against an opposing fan or yourself? * “There aren’t any bad incidents I’ve witnessed. It’s difficult to get too fired up at a Pirates game, the fans are so numb from the interminable losing!!” * “The level of play for the past 15 years is the worst.” * “Witnessing Jeromy Burnitz, Benito Santiago, or Derek ‘Operation Shutdown’ Bell put on a Pirates uniform.”
What is the best promotion/giveaway your team has offered? What is the worst? What is a promotion you’d like to see? * “Worst: Running of the Wolverines. There were many killed.”
i must have missed that last one
by johnnycuff on
Apr 30, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
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. . . in crowd of drunk West Virginia natives
“I wound up sitting in the midst o a crowd of drunk West Virginia natives who were rude and smoking.”
in other news, the sky is blue and water is wet.
13-9,
richaude
ps i keed!
by richaude on
Apr 30, 2008 4:10 PM EDT
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*shakes fist*
At least we get Bowl Games!
Also kidding. Peace.
by EmmaOMG on
Apr 30, 2008 4:12 PM EDT
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Yeah. You picked the wrong place to diss West Virginia, buddy.
by Charlie on
Apr 30, 2008 4:18 PM EDT
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you have to be kidding
i thought i liked this blog…..
Raise the Jolly Roger!
http://raisethejollyroger21.blogspot.com
by Raise the Jolly Roger on
Apr 30, 2008 4:24 PM EDT
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We’re the only ones who are allowed to make fun of it, damnit.
by EmmaOMG on
Apr 30, 2008 4:27 PM EDT
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some other interesting bits from the "worst incident" question
Mets: Every year Mets and Yankees fans fight. I saw a Yankees fan brawl with a Mets fan when the Mets were playing the Pirates.
Red Sox: A middle class family of four having to drop a week’s salary to go to the game
A’s: Too many people smoking marijuana.
A’s: I saw someone attack a mascot.
White Sox: I would never even consider taking my children to a Cubs-Sox game at either team’s ballpark.
Marlins: Teams like the Mets and the Cubs play in front of home crowds. Even the Pirates have more fans than the Marlins at Dolphin Stadium.
Twins: One time a guy was swearing. Seriously. They’re freakishly nice up here. Way too polite.
Rays: None, because most of the fans showing up are for the road teams.
Braves: At a Braves vs. Padres game, a local Little League team named the Mets was there. They were shown on the Jumbotron and the entire stadium booed.
Padres: I was asked by an usher to quiet down after cheering too loudly.
Angels: One time, I saw a guy stealing a three-gallon drum of mustard.
by johnnycuff on
Apr 30, 2008 4:21 PM EDT
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I saw somebody at PNC smoking weed last weekend. They didn’t share, bummer.
by EmmaOMG on
Apr 30, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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I had to step away
How’d the Mets score?
.500 or bust...
by phillybucco on Apr 30, 2008 4:09 PM EDT 0 recs
jvb walked beltran then gave up a double to church
by johnnycuff on
Apr 30, 2008 4:11 PM EDT
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None of the Mets “Calls to the Booth” are actually making it on the air. Hehe.
.500 or bust...
by phillybucco on Apr 30, 2008 4:25 PM EDT 0 recs
Argh...
I’m getting nervous all of a sudden.
.500 or bust...
by phillybucco on Apr 30, 2008 4:32 PM EDT 0 recs
For once, we can honestly say
there was nooooo doubt about it.
Woo!
.500 or bust...
by phillybucco on Apr 30, 2008 4:46 PM EDT 0 recs


