Alvarez vs. Beckham: What's the Long-Term Plan?

by Charlie Wilmoth on May 22, 2008 11:01 PM EDT

In the comment section to a previous thread, Patthatt writes:

How about we take the HS guy with a huge upside in Tim Beckham, be patient and hope he develops over the next 3-4 years like Andrew McCutchen, and possibly Neil Walker, and cross our fingers that the combination of young talent above, other draftees, and whatever new people we bring in through the expected trades later this year and beyond make the Pirates a perennial contender from 2011/12?

So far, I personally favor drafting Beckham, but others know a lot more about these players than I do. And either way, I think the Bucs should take the best overall player, or the most talented player, without regard for when he will get to the majors. It's the second overall pick, and you shouldn't try to get fancy with the second overall pick. You should just draft an awesome player, regardless of who he is.

There is something to this strategy, though, or at least its general outline. I recall seeing a comment on a message board once that I thought was interesting (no link, because I can't remember who said it or where). The idea was that if you're a new GM working with a non-contending team with no farm system, you should pick up a bunch of high school talent in your first few drafts, then grab a bunch of college talent in your next couple drafts, then watch them all arrive in the majors at the same time. It's idealistic, of course, but it's an interesting strategy, and it seems like the Pirates' best shot at winning a couple division titles in a row.

Think about it -- if the Pirates draft Pedro Alvarez and he's in the majors by the end of 2009, what good does it do? I suppose it's possible the Pirates contend in 2010, but I seriously doubt it. If the Bucs draft Beckham and he doesn't get to the majors until 2012, the Bucs probably won't be much worse for wear, and they get to keep Beckham through at least 2017.

It's pretty sad that our organization is in such terrible shape that we have to think about how to be competitive in 2016 and 2017 but, again, that's about when high school draftees from the 2009 and 2010 drafts would be entering their primes, and it's also about when we can finally expect our revamped Dominican program to really start working for us, if it ever does.

By the way, this is something like the strategy the Brewers have employed (probably inadvertently at first, although now I'm pretty sure they're doing it on purpose). They grabbed Corey Hart in 2000 and Prince Fielder in 2002 out of high school. They then grabbed Rickie Weeks as a college junior in 2003; he was only about a year and a half older than Fielder. Then they took Ryan Braun out of college in 2005, and he zoomed through the minors and arrived in 2007; Braun is just a few months older than Fielder. After taking high school pitcher Jeremy Jeffress in 2006 (which admittedly muddies the waters), they grabbed an advanced college hitter in Matt LaPorta with their first pick in the 2007 draft, and now they seem to be trying to get LaPorta through the system as quickly as possible. Between Hart, Fielder, Weeks, Braun, J.J. Hardy and LaPorta, the Brewers now have a core of young hitters who are all pretty close to the same age.

Again, this only should pertain to this particular pick as a tiebreaker. If the Bucs feel that Alvarez is markedly better than Beckham, they should take Alvarez. But if, as some have suggested, the player to whom Alvarez best compares is Evan Longoria, then we should keep in mind that one reason picking Longoria was so great for the Rays is that the Rays already had a large collection of similar-aged talent to surround Longoria with. The Bucs don't have that. If the Bucs can grab their B.J. Upton now and wait a few years to grab their Longoria, that'd be ideal.

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Comments

A caveat

Alvarez was considered the top talent of this class up to the point when he broke his hand. So, if these assessments were on the mark, then selecting Alvarez would not imply a talent v. time to majors trade off.

Steve Z

by steve_z on May 22, 2008 11:35 PM EDT reply actions

The Draft

I’m sure that both Alvarez and Beckham are fine prospects.

But every organization knows about them. They both may become great big leaguers someday, and one of them may well be the Pirates first round pick..

But the really important question is — who else do the Pirates have in sight for rounds two through whatever. The Pirates will hopefully sign 20-30 players from this draft. While the first pick is important, the future of the Pirates is going to depend much more on the 2nd round pick and subsequent picks plus the deals that they can make prior to the July 31 deadline.

No one should bet the farm on the Pirates’ first round selection.

Unfortunately, we won’t know much about the draft results until 2010 at the earliest.

Let’s see what happens.

by thegunner on May 23, 2008 12:12 AM EDT reply actions

Deadline deals

could also have a lot to do with the team’s ability to compete in 2010. There are several players the Pirates have that could significantly help contenders this year, and maximizing returns for those guys could make this a much different team in 2010. In that case, Alvarez would show up at just the right time.

by DITO on May 23, 2008 9:13 AM EDT reply actions

I would like to see...

The Pirates be more careful when selecting a collegiate pitcher so that we don’t sign one who is over-used in college and later developes arm problems like so many of our previous pitchers have done. I would be willing to bet that if we had access to the data we would find that most if not all of the injured pitchers were seriously over-used in college leading to their inevitable arm problems. There is no evidence to suggest that either high school or college players have an advantage over the other and so we should take the advice of the consensus of our scouts as to which player has the most potential. This isn’t like football where teams draft to fill their needs because the development time is usually rather lengthy and players don’t immediately step in and become contributing members. We should take the best player available irrespective of his position. My only concern would be to avoid taking slow-throwing junkball pitchers like Duke and Maholmn again. Pitchers who can rarely if ever strike out batters are never going to succeed in MLB. In the words of Tom Cruise in “Top Gun”: I feel the need for speed!

by Illinois Pirate Fan on May 23, 2008 10:06 AM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure

it makes a difference whether pitchers are high school or college when it comes to pitcher abuse. Look at the last 2 high school pitchers the Pirates took in the first round…Bradley and Burnett. Both had significant issues with arm injuries early in their Pirates careers. College pitchers are the same way…Benson seemed to be alright…and Maholm hasn’t had major arm problems…but the rest..Johnston…JVB…Bullington and Lincoln all had MAJOR injury issues…and JVB wasn’t even a full time pitcher in college.

That being said…we need lots of everything…but offense most of all.

by Thunder on May 23, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

IPF

As geeves points out below, the only pitcher in recent memory drafted #1 by the Bucs that came with a buyer-beware tag because of high number of innings pitched was Brad Lincoln.

This isn’t like football where teams draft to fill their needs because the development time is usually rather lengthy and players don’t immediately step in and become contributing members. We should take the best player available irrespective of his position.

Huh???

by patthatt on May 23, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Read it this way

This isn’t like football where teams draft to fill their needs because — in baseball — the development time is usually rather lengthy and players don’t immediately step in and become contributing members

by azibuck on May 24, 2008 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with DITO, 2010 is a likely year to compete

By then, we’ll have an outfield of McCutchen, Pearce, and McLouth. N. Walker and – hopefully – Alvarez will be up, and you have to think that at least 2 of the these 3 (Lincoln, Welker, Moskos) will be in the rotation. Add in the inevitable pieces we’ll receive in trades for Bay, Nady, Grabow, Marte, possibly Doumit, and hopefully LaRoche, and we should be able to fill in gaps in the middle infeld and C. This doesn’t even take into consideration Ford, Friday, Negrych, and possibly Boone and Romak developing into legitimate prospects (you have to think at least of couple of them will be with the PBC by then), and I really believe we’ll be in good shape.

by S. Carolina Bucs Fan on May 23, 2008 10:23 AM EDT reply actions

SCBF

Add in the inevitable pieces we’ll receive in trades for Bay, Nady, Grabow, Marte

We`d better get a helluva lot in the trades, considering most of the rest of the guys you think are going to be key pieces of the Pirates` roster a couple of years from now.

by patthatt on May 23, 2008 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions

best player

By any measure, Alvarez projects to be the far better offensive player. He has perhaps the most power of any hitter in the draft class. He is among the most polished hitters in the class as well. He is left-handed and could aim for that short porch. He is at least even money to stay at 3B but even if he moves off that premium position, he’s got plenty of bat for 1B. He is a much safer bet because he’s done it at a higher level. etc. The only reasons to take Beckham a very fine prospect are, in my opinion, weak. He figures to be much cheaper and easier to sign- so what?! I don’t want that to be a reason anymore. He plays SS which perhaps the most premium position- that’s great, but he’s not a lock to stay at SS and if he has to move his worth plummets. He is younger and he’ll be ready at the right time- bypassing superior talent for any reason is flawed. The Pirates need to gather all of the impact talent they can, whenever they can.
I could go on all day, but I won’t. I just hope the Bucs take the best bat in the first round and a ton of high upside pitchers the rest of the way.
of course, I could be wrong.

by my dixie wrecked on May 23, 2008 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

point to make

my dixie: bechkam is actually considered, of the top SS in this years draft, the most likely (by quite a margin) to be able to stay at SS for his career.

S. Carolina: if you think that boone is still anything more than a fringe prospect, or that we’ll get anything more than fringe prospects in a trade of anybody besides bay and nady, you are fooling yourself.

Illinois: College stats

Lincoln – three years, 43 starts, 4 relief, 286 1/3 innings

Moskos – three years, 81 appearances, 10 starts, 149 2/3 innings

Bullington pitched 104 innings his senior year as Ball State’s best and most used starter

i could keep digging, but i’m not seeing a pattern yet

by geeves on May 23, 2008 1:13 PM EDT reply actions

also

expecting cutch, walker, romak, negrych, possibly alvarez and whomever else to all develop and arrive together is expecting a LOT

by geeves on May 23, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions

According to Jake from Bucco Blog

The Rays have evidently settled on Pedro Alvarez as their #1 pick, a friend of mine in St. Petersburg around the team said tonight. He’s been right each year the last four, albeit a couple of them were no brainers.

So now what. Anyone call BS on this? Think we should get Beckham now? What do you think?

by Bad Andy on May 25, 2008 5:03 PM EDT reply actions