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Wild Speculation Never Goes Out of Style

In all fairness, I should preface this by saying that I am known to several of my friends as the "Hey here's this crazy theory that will probably never actually happen but let's discuss it anyway" Guy. That being said, I did my best to put as much logic as possible into this babbling ramble.

Obviously, trade speculation is ramping up as the deadline inches closer, and I thought I would take a chance to realistically take a look at who out there needs what we have (relievers and corner OF) and if there is a logical give and take that could happen between us and them.

1. Tampa - This team is obviously starting to come together, with a decidedly above average rotation and plenty of good young/young-ish talent in the field; Upton and Longoria, and to a lesser extent (either talent or age-wise) Pena, Crawford, and Navarro.

However, they have this large mess in right field comprised of Eric Hinske, Jonny Gomes, and Gabe Gross. Sure, Hinske is hitting right now, but I don't think that he has the track record to justify the notion of his simply becoming the everyday RF as a solution when Pena returns. Neither Gross nor Gomes has proven they can hit on any sort of regular basis either. So I don't think it would be unreasonable for them to either acquire Xavier Nady or Jason Bay, which would go a long way towards improving at least their offense, if not their outfield defense (hey, can't win 'em all).

So what's in it for us? Well, a simple inspection of Tampa's roster tells you all you need to know. They don't really have any hitters that are remotely lighting it up (outside of a couple way-old-for-their-level guys) right now, but what they do have is pitching. Pitching out the wazoo. Right now, Tampa has a 40-man roster with 12 pitchers who are 26 years old or younger, only one of whom possibly doesnt belong there anymore (Jae-Kuk Ryu ). On top of that, they have another four pitchers who are good enough and young enough that they're bound to wind up on the 40-man once there's room. Obviously, this is far more pitching than they will ever really have room for at the major league level (unless you realistically expect them to turn a majority of these guys into relievers), and is their biggest bargaining chip in trade talks by a wide margin.

Given that our system features Brad Lincoln and a bunch of organizational depth, acquiring a little depth couldn't hurt. I would toss out the concept of either Xavier Nady or Jason Bay for one or maybe two of Mitch Talbot /Jeff Niemann /J.P. Howell/Jeff Hammel/Richard De Los Santos - one in return for Nady, or two for Bay.

Howell and Hammel being the two stud starters who are in Tampa's bullpen only because there's no room in the rotation, Talbot and Niemann being the guys killing time carrying AAA Durham's rotation, and De Los Santos  being the guy at AA not named Houser, McGee, or Davis but putting up just as good of numbers.

2. New York Mets - The Mets are a bit of a muckpile right now, but some people would say that they still have a chance, and that some outfield and middle relief help would go a long way towards bridging the gaps in their everyday roster. Who knows if it's better than 50/50 that the Mets are a buyer approaching the deadline, but if they are, we may have what they need.

Obviously, I might first offer these guys Nady (since they love him so much) and Marte. They don't have a lot of prospects to deal, so I think they only have enough to get either those two or Bay straight up in a trade, and I would throw out the idea of either Nady & Marte or Bay for Mike Carp /Nick Evans  and Jonathan Niese.

3. Boston - The Red Sox bullpen has perhaps come apart a bit lately, with Craig Hansen getting knocked around all season so far, and Timlin, Okajima, and Tavarez not being particularly good the last couple weeks either. Perhaps this corrects itself, perhaps not. If it doesnt, Boston could probably use some quality relievers and hey! we've got some of those. Marte would make a solid LH option if Okajima doesn't turn things around, or John Grabow might be appealing if they want a righty. I doubt we'd get a ton for either of those guys, but perhaps we could offer Boston either Marte or Grabow for someone like Zach Daeges , Bubba Bell , or hell, maybe even Mike Bowden .

4. Cleveland - I include them not because they're a true contender who has the money to make a splash, or because they just need that one piece as much as because this is Huntingdon's old team, the one whose talent he knows the best...

That being said, if Fausto Carmona isn't on the DL too much longer, I don't think a rotation of Sabathia, Carmona, Laffey, and Lee (assuming he doesn't regress beyond league-average) is anything to be trifled with. Add in Ben Francisco, Sizemore, Garko and Marte, and you have, again, a significantly less than terrible offensive core that has room for a corner outfielder. Their bullpen could also use some help, and here's where we come in.

Cleveland's needs are not unlike New York's (and a similar situation as far as the variety of opinions as to whether they are a buyer or not), and I think an offer of similar value would not be out of line. Some combination of Bay, Nady, Marte, and Grabow would certainly make sense for Cleveland, and in return, I don't think it would be unreasonable for us to ask for some combination of Brian Slocum /David Huff /Ryan Edell  and Chris Gimenez /Wes Hodges . (one strange note about Huff: his AA Akron numbers are a bit skewed by the fact that three of his 10 starts were against Altoona, so his AAA numbers should be a better measuring stick).

Obviously, I didn't include any minor league prospects who are relievers, mainly because I consider the term "quality reliever" to be a very relative one at best. That being said, I think I made a solid effort to keep these ideas at least on the fringe of feasibility, so I'm wondering what you-all might think about these.

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tampa – jason bay can’t play right field because he doesn’t have the arm to get a runner going from first to third. maybe tampa doesn’t care. they’re certainly a good match for us with pitching to spare. hard to say if the acquisition of garza before the season began was a reflection of their desire to stockpile pitching depth, a lack of faith in delmon young or a lack of faith in those AAA players you name, many of which aren’t having great seasons there so far. still, if our talent evaluation can spot something that maybe the rays are missing it’s as a good spot to gamble as any.

mets – the mets will try if they’re even remotely in contention, as evidenced by their recent maelstrom of activity. as you point out, there’s not much there for us. minaya can be fleeced (he must have nightmares about scott kazmir) so maybe we can get the best of what didn’t go for santana.

boston – grabow is a lefty, not a righty. i think okajima will recover but there’s no saying they wouldn’t want another lefty. tavarez is no longer a red sock and has been picked up and cut by the brewers since, so there’s probably still a need there. i don’t know much about their system but i’d be surprised to see us add an outfielder, as you suggest.

cleveland – not a contender at this point. with martinez and carmona out and hafner continuing to tank, i don’t see there being any way they stick in the race and neither do they, as there are plenty of rumors swirling about c. c. sabathia. they’ve shown reliably in the past that when they can’t compete they deal off vets for prospects, not the other way around.

others:

the twins are surprising contenders with a bad offense. maybe they’d buy into a replacement for craig monroe. they’re also terrible at third base so maybe bautista (i know, it’s a stretch) could play his way onto their radar.

it may change by july but detroit still fancies themselves as contenders. though they have no use for our outfielders they could use some relief help, however they have internal help on the way. there’s no way they’re giving up on this season already after the moves they made in the offseason.

the a’s could use an outfielder if they hang in there and carlos gonzalez doesn’t prove he’s ready.

too bad morgan and duffy aren’t impressing because florida could use a cheap, speedy CF.

the braves are a team in need of a LF if diaz stays in the tank and they’ve show they’re willing to deal with huntington. however, i hate when we deal with them because it gives me a lingering sense of doom. with their pitching situation, i’m not sure they’ll make an all-out run at it.

we probably won’t trade bay in our division, maybe nady and more likely relievers. we’ve got nothing for the cubs and st. louis is teeming with quality outfielders but the brewers could use an entirely new bullpen. plenty of lefty need there.

the dodgers don’t look to need outfield help, unless they’re going for a trifecta of aging outfielders with pierre, jones and bay. their bullpen is solid and they seem to effortlessly produce quality relievers year after year.

arizona seems pretty set. the giants shouldn’t be buyers and their outfield is inexplicably decent but that doesn’t mean sabean wouldn’t do something that’s well… sabean-esque.

by johnnycuff on Jun 20, 2008 1:18 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting but.....

I think you’re underselling our guys bit. No, we won’t raid any system with what we’ve got to trade but I’m guessing we’ll do better than your speculation. You’ll be pleasantly surprised.

by my dixie wrecked on Jun 20, 2008 1:29 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Devil Rays

They seem to be a perfect fit, and there was a really long debate on a thread over at minor league ball about a trade. I don’t think it is unreasonable to ask for Jake McGee for Nady and Marte.

The Red Sox have a lot of minor league SS depth. If we could get one of the guys stuck behind Jed Lowrie for Marte or Grabow, that is probably worth it.

by DITO on Jun 20, 2008 1:36 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If Nady goes to the DL

then Bay could be there, but johnnycuff already pointed out that he really can’t play left field.

by DITO on Jun 20, 2008 1:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not a big fan...

...of the Mets as a potential trade partner. I just don’t think they have enough value in their farm system right now to provide decent value for us (I’m not big on Carp).

Tampa is the best fit, by quite a lot. I kind of like the Twins as a dark horse, and Atlanta might also be an interesting possibility if they decide to double down for this year.

by Vlad on Jun 20, 2008 2:41 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I used to enjoy speculating about Pirate trades

Then Littlefield would move ARam for a player we’d be pleased with, Benson for Wigginton, etc. It kinda took all the fun out of it.

Steve Z

by steve_z on Jun 20, 2008 3:03 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What was it my grandfather used to say...

“Wish in one hand and sh’t in the other and see which one fills up faster.”

Kind of how I view speculating on anything these days revolving around the PBC.

by ElliottBayBucco on Jun 20, 2008 4:24 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

More

We could get a lot more for Bay than what you were saying. I could see us getting one of Wade Davis or Jake Mcgee and another good prospect for Bay and Marte. Also, the Phillies are supposed to be interested in a lefty reliever for some reason. They have a couple of arms in their system I could see us getting like Kyle Drabek( might be hurt), Joe Savery, and Carlos Carrasco. I could see us getting one of the first two.

by joegonzo on Jun 20, 2008 7:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK

We’ve been having a little… chat over at Athletics Nation about the A’s putatively acquiring one of Nady and Bay. Someone proposed a straight-up trade of Travis Buck for Nady, which seems absurdly one-sided to me.

Suppose you’re Neal Huntington and Billy Beane calls you up about one of these two. Who do you ask for out of the A’s system?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jun 20, 2008 7:55 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Alot

I would ask for Gio Gonzalez and Sean Doolittle for Bay. For Nady I would ask for Trevor Cahill and maybe some cash.

by joegonzo on Jun 20, 2008 8:57 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

looking

over the article again, i’m not terribly fond of it. i had forgotten about minnesota, and for that matter the yankees (who could desperately use some bullpen help). those boston guys are a reach, and a SS not named Lowrie would probably be a more realistic haul. I agree about oakland – bay is worth a couple players, and the a’s could spare gonzalez and doolittle.

by geeves on Jun 21, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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