2008 Draft Open Thread: Bucs Take Alvarez
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 5, 2008 11:00 AM EDT
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PrintHave at it, folks. I'll be in and out today, but I'll definitely be around for the first pick when the draft starts at 2:00 PM EST.
Major League Baseball's Draft Page
John Sickels' Minor League Ball
UPDATE 1:53 PM: The MLB.com broadcast just reported the Rays have confirmed they will take Tim Beckham.
UPDATE 2:16 PM: Rays are on the clock. Why should the team that picks first be on the clock? Was the year they had to think about their selection not long enough?
UDPATE 2:22 PM: Rays take Tim Beckham. Bucs on the clock.
UPDATE 2:24 PM: Keith Law thinks Beckham was the best overall player and has the best chance of being a superstar.
UPDATE 2:27 PM: PIRATES TAKE PEDRO ALVAREZ. Given that Beckham was gone, I'm happy to see this. Let's hope we can get him signed and scoot him through the system quickly. Jim Callis of Baseball America says Alvarez was the best pick and that it sends the right message to their fans. I've written a fair amount about Alvarez--you can see some of my posts about him here.
UPDATE 2:33 PM: The Royals take high school first baseman Eric Hosmer.
UPDATE 2:38 PM: The Orioles select Brian Matusz. Living in San Diego, I wish I had gone out to watch Matusz.
UPDATE 2:43 PM: Baseball America on Alvarez:
Alvarez didn’t finish strong or have the best season, but getting a guy who might be the top talent in the draft class is something the Pirates haven’t done in recent years, even when they’ve drafted highly. Alvarez was said to have an asking price of around $8.5 million for a major league contract. He’ll be worth it if he stays at third base and hits the way the Pirates and most other clubs anticipate.
UPDATE 2:44 PM: The Giants take Buster Posey.
UPDATE 2:49 PM: The Marlins pick high schooler Kyle Skipworth, that rare "five tool" catcher. Five of six picks have been hitters so far; maybe teams are getting the message about taking pitchers with early first-round picks.
UPDATE 2:55 PM: The Reds take Yonder Alonso from Miami. Two first basemen gone now, plus Alvarez.
UPDATE 3:00 PM: The White Sox are up and they take Gordon Beckham, the other Georgia shortstop. The ESPN announcers are going on about how he's not a "tools" guy.
UPDATE 3:02 PM: Except for maybe Alonso, no big surprises so far.
UPDATE 3:05 PM: wooble finds this from Keith Law:
The pick makes sense for the Pirates, who have had a hard time developing power hitters and don't have a lot in their system. If he moved to first base, he'd have a clear path to the majors there. Same thing at third base. My only concern is that they didn't pick the best player on the board at this point. Justin Smoak would have made just as much if not more sense. But if everything clicks with Alvarez, the Pirates have a cleanup hitter for the next several years with 40-homer potential in the majors.
That doesn't really make a lot of sense. "Same thing at third base"? Oh well, it's up-to-the-minute, and he's on TV right now too.
UPDATE 3:06 PM: The Nats take Aaron Crow. That's the second year in a row they've selected a college pitcher from Missouri with their first pick (last year they took Ross Detwiler from Southwest Missouri State).
UPDATE 3:11 PM: The Astros take Jason Castro, a catcher from Stanford. I hadn't heard about him being an early first round pick. If the Astros had a good recent record with amateur talent, I might be inclined to trust them, but they don't.
UPDATE 3:16 PM: The Rangers grab Justin Smoak. Great pick at number eleven. The A's are up next; I can't wait to see what they're going to do.
UPDATE 3:21 PM: The Athletics, with the twelfth pick, take Jemile Weeks from Miami. That's Rickie's brother.
I have to step out for a couple hours. I'll be back later in the afternoon.
UPDATE 5:04 PM: The Twins took Aaron Hicks at 14, which doesn't surprise me at all. Former Pirates draftee and thief Lonnie Chisenhall goes at the end of the first round to the Indians -- wow. 30 picks are now gone, and the Brewers, who already grabbed Canadian high school shortstop Brett Lawrie with the sixteenth pick, have two more picks in the next five. Oh, and Mariners fans are apoplectic.
UPDATE 5:22 PM: The supplemental round has begun (the Pirates aren't involved, as usual) and teams are grabbing guys with live arms. I'll be back in an hour and a half or so.
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According to Baseball America
The Rays will take Tim Beckham
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266271.html
Which means the stage is set for Pedro Alvarez being a Bucco!
Also useful:
Link. In case you like MLB.com’s scouting reports, but don’t like the popups. Just pick the name you want from the dropdown menu under the movie.
Incidentally, those movies are a great opportunity to polish your scouting abilities, if you’re interested in that.
I will be golfing and miss the first few rounds,
but when I get back I am looking forward to reading everyones’ opinions. Here’s to the first important event in changing the future of this franchise!
uh-oh.....this gives me pause.....
I found this article on Project Prospect . It’s an ok site but it focuses almost exclusively on stats. Still, do you find this troubling?
http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2008/06/04/lincoln%E2%80%99s-rules-for-college-stats
It basically says….
elite college hitters who don’t strike out much have really good success rates. And really good college hitters who do strike out a lot have dizzying failure rates…..This does not bode well for uber-prospect Pedro Alvarez who strikeout rate is down this year (13.9%) – in a smaller sample size – but in his two previous seasons at Vandy has whiffed more than once in every five at bats. I’m not saying that Pedro Alvarez is destined to top out at Double-A. I’m not saying that he can’t turn into a fantastic hitter – the kind that a championship offense is built around. I’m just saying that no college hitter taken in the last seven drafts has been struck out as often and played a big league game. Alvarez is a really unique talent but his statistical profile will make him even more unique if he succeeds – Drew Stubbs was the only player I could find taken in the top 10 who struck out more often in college.
by my dixie wrecked on Jun 5, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions
That site also have an overall top prospect ranking
Cutch is 10th…....DL’s reject Weiters….......5th
People are pretty reluctant to take a college first baseman, I think.
That dude does have a sweet swing, though.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 5, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
MLB.com thinks Posey will get to them.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 5, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Hilarious
MLB.com just had on Jim Duquette, who was the GM of the Mets when they took Mike Pelfrey with the 9th pick in 2005. He was going on about how much he loved Jay Bruce as an amateur. Then why didn’t you draft him, genius?
right after
this commercial break. Gah.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 5, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
are ALL the teams going to take their full 5 minutes? What is this, the NFL?
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
I think they have to, probably. Lame.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 5, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Why
are they trying to talk to Hosmer (who?) and didn’t talk to Alvarez?
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
Maybe there wasn’t enough background noise when they gave Alvarez a call. Maybe they were confused when it turned out they could hear him clearly.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 5, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
If ...
we didn’t pick Alvarez, I wanted Hosmer. He just LOOKS like a star.
Too bad Alvarez will be
blocked by Joey Bats until he (Alvarez) is 29 and ready to pick up the mantle.
They'll just move Pedro to 1st
kicking LaSuck out the door.
Pearce to 1B, replacing Black Hole
Walker back to C, enabling us to dump RoPaul, Alvarez up in no time at all.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 5, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
No - the change in GM's
is eyewash. They’ve brought Littlefield back on a black helicopter, where he hovers over the city controlling the new management through brain waves. We’ll keep our prospects on the farm, waiting…. Think of how good the Rays could be if they allowed Eva Longoria to ripen a few more years in wherever their AA and AAA clubs are.
I don’t think Walker is going to catch again. :)
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 5, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Where's RichieHebner?
I wonder if he thinks they took Alvarez so they could low-ball him and not sign him, in an effort to break the union. I can see it happening. I didn’t quite buy what Dejan wrote about if the Pirates don’t sign him, the fans would burn down PNC. I don’t see that at all.
Not 1:1
I don’t mean that alone would break the union. I mean that, like slotting, it would be an effort by MLB vis-a-vis Connelly/Pirates to exert more control over players and salaries. I haven’t worked out all the details, I’m just trying to think like RH, and I mean that in a complimentary way. Just trying to think ‘how could this pick be sinister’?
If Pedro's not able to sign us
At least we’ll potentially get TWO Top 10 picks with a guaranteed 3rd pick.
The Reds pick makes no sense ...
... don’t they have Joey Votto?
MLB teams don't draft for need.
By the time Alonso is ready for the majors, Votto will be getting expensive.
It’s generally unwise to worry much about positional need when drafting.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 5, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point ...
... I’ve watched entirely too much NFL draft coverage over the years. :)
Keith Law on Alvarez:
My only concern is that they didn’t pick the best player on the board at this point. Justin Smoak would have made just as much if not more sense. But if everything clicks with Alvarez, the Pirates have a cleanup hitter for the next several years with 40-homer potential in the majors.
Lower signing bonus aside, why would Smoak make more sense?
Keith Law had Smoak 3rd and Alvarez 5th
So Law’s opinion is more favorable to Smoak
If Alvarez is a 1B...
...then Smoak is a switch (rather than a lefty), a better glove, and about $2M less.
HMMM......Jason Castro to Houston
Worst pick of the draft so far.
Interesting signing
He had a 2.08 ERA for Texas as a non-roster invitee then refused to be assigned their AAA affialate
Be aware he had 13BB and 15K’s in 21 2/3 innings
Lots of 1B drafted already
I think that’s 6 of the 1st 18 picks
Alvarez.
Now we just have to get him signed.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
would the pirates take gerrit cole?
would the pirates take gerrit cole with the 2nd round pick if he is there (and pay him)? doubt he will be around that long, but would be a high-talent 2nd round pick.
if they take Cole
there’s absoultely NO WAY the Pirates will be able to sign both. Cole is a Boras client
Seattle took a reliever.
Keith Law questioned it.
The fans at Lookout Landing hate it.
So weird to have a pick that we aren’t up in arms about, while other teams make questionable picks…
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
Haha at Seattle really sucking this year (21-39)
That meltdown by McLaren was classic. At least Fields is MLB ready I hear.
As was posted at LL
Now we’ll have a great bullpen that can protect nonexistent leads.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
Another 1st baseman selected
Allen Dykstra to San Diego
Doesn’t look like we’ll get Darnell by the time the Bucs pick again.
Nothing sinister
They drafted a really good ballplayer, and they’ll try to sign him. I was intrigued by Smoak, though, and wouldn’t have minded seeing them take him or Beckham (my preference). They will have to shell out a lot of money to make this happen. To me, the real test comes in Rounds 2 and on. That is where the real test begins. Anyone (except Dave Littlefield) can handle the first round.
Tell that to the fans in Seattle.
Anyone (except Dave Littlefield) can handle the first round.
They just might disagree.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
For what it's worth
USS Mariner is high on Alvarez…
Good job, Pittsburgh. I saw Pedro Alvarez in the summer of ‘06 and he’s like Albert Pujols younger brother. Kid can hit.
You can’t watch Alvarez hit and not see Pujols. It’s so clear.
I think Pedro was a slam dunk, and I’m surprised that, even with Beckham’s upside, the Rays didn’t take a player many people consider the best hitter to enter the draft in five or ten years.
Dang.
Now we just need to get him signed.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
Bud Selig
needs help with public speaking if he’s gonna be announcing the draft.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
Former Bucco draft pick
Lonnie Chisenhall just got drafted by the Tribe
It’ll start moving much faster after the first round is over. I agree, though, this is way too long.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 5, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
1 min for each compensatory pick
so it will be about 20 minutes after the start of that.
Does anyone have a link
to someone’s (I don’t really care who) best available list? Something like ESPN has been scrolling by Keith Law.
If Scheppers falls
do you take him? There are still a lot of slots for that to happen, just asking considering our luck with injuries.
I don't think we go tough sign 2 in a row.
And Melville supposedly wants top-15 money. Good arm, though.
I didn’t bring my stuff to work, but there are a lot of solid picks still available.
Off the top of my head...
...I like Galloway, Hood, Sample, and Seaton at 2. Maybe Carpenter, though obviously I don’t have access to his medicals, and I wouldn’t pick him without a look.
Darnell is good.
I worry about Webb in our system, since he really only has one pitch right now. It’s a GOOD pitch, but I could see him ending up as a reliever.
We don't need relievers
We need power-armed starters and mashers.
Webb could be a power-armed starter.
But he’s very much a work in progress. Depends how much you trust the development staff, I guess.
HERE WE GO
The next Pirate pick is…...................
Huh.
Not exactly what I wanted.
He was regarded as a top 10 pick heading into the draft, but he dropped because he’s got a stress fracture in his shoulder. Big-body college righty, good stuff.
I’m not so worried about that, but I don’t like that the lower half of his body is so dead. Video here. Still, I guess I have to trust the scouts for now. Maybe they can work on improving his tempo.
Wow
I suggested they may but didn’t really think they would do it.
Did the bucs just spend around 10-12 million over two rounds?
It's reportedly very unusual.
I’ve never heard of a pitcher with a stress fracture in the shoulder, and neither has Jonathan Mayo.
I do believe, however,
that he has a stress fracture on his shoulder….......out 6 weeks from the time he was injured about a few weeks ago. Still diggin’ for more info
Yeah, I read the M's doctors cleared him,
but I also read other teams’ doctors said to stay away. I doubt he is healthy right now—there really wasn’t any other reason he would fall, except maybe that he is asking for early first round money.
From what I've read...
...it’s such an unusual injury for a pitcher that nobody knows what the recovery time will be, or whether there will be consequences down the road. There’s just no precedent.
Certainly NOT a DL pick
I think Neal, Kyle, and Coonelly have balls.
Man,
this is going to be tough watching this mlb.com draft tracker all night. I think I might shut it down and just read any updates that show up in the game thread.
Dykstra, Hood, Satterwhite are taken
Melville and Webb STILL on the board
4 picks away
Pirates at 79
Looks Melville, Webb, or Sexton may fall on our lap
Darnell did get taken by San Diego (69th overall)
BA draft blog on Scheppers:
“The Pirates roll the dice with Tanner Scheppers, and that is a good risk to take. Yes, it’s a shoulder injury; even his agent says Scheppers has “significant wear and tear” and there could be labrum damage. But Scheppers is athletic, has special arm strength and has had success. He’s a first-round talent the Pirates just got in the second round, and if it works out, that’s the kind of draft the Pirates have to have to lift themselves out of their long stretch of poor seasons. They need impact talent, and Scheppers is an impact talent.” -Link
Labrum damage? Ew.
Hopefully,
some protection from this injury is written into the contract, if they don’t really know what it is.
And the 3rd round Pirate pick goes to.......................
ss Jordy Mercer
IDK about that one
Didn’t they draft a SS last year by the name of Brian Friday
I haven't seen Mercer play.
But the scouting reports are good. Plus arm, and no worse than average in any phase of the game. #64 prospect overall, by BA’s rank.
Why The Hell didn't they pick
Melville or Webb?
Scheppers wants a lot, too.
Even if they tried to go cheaper than slot with Mercer, I don’t really have a problem with that.
Melville said...
...that he wants top 15 picks money, or he’ll go to college.
Scheppers will want above slot, but he shouldn’t cost quite THAT much, and he’ll have incentive to sign. If the injury is worse than advertised, he might never see that kind of money again.
Maybe that's why other teams are scared of Melville
We might get him in the 4th round.
Well looking at this scouting video
Mercer appears to be a clone of Jack Wilson
See for yourself
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl_3_1.jsp?w_id=702353&w=/2008/open/draft/broll/br_mercer_jordy_400.wmv&mid=200805302799788&vid=11071&pid=gen_video&cid=mlb&v=2
One good thing about the coverage of the MLB draft
is that the guys covering it focus on the pick/team at hand, not only on the 1st 3 picks (see the NFL) after the first round
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
Do they take breaks between the rounds now?
And if they do… are they long?
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
I guess not.
Good.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
Chase D'Arnaud
SS from Pepperdine
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
Two straight shortstops
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
From what I've read...
...D’Arnaud might be more of a 3B in the pros. He’s a legit pick.
His baby brother went in the supplemental first last year, to the Phillies.
There goes
the Melville guy
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
Dropped
because he told the teams that he was going to go to college.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
Melville wanted too much ...
... I think he wanted top 15 money. Still, it would have been a nice gamble.
BA had D'Arnaud #53 in California
The top 45 in that state were in BA’s overall top 200, so he didn’t miss it by much.
Looks like an overdraft to me
Think about it though Alvarez and Scheppers are gonna have about 80-85% of the Pirates draft budget so I guess we’ll see more of these.
Once you get past the third round...
...the rankings are a lot more arbitrary, since the guys are all closer together.
I’m pretty encouraged by the fact that we took a guy from California. Under DL, we hardly ever scouted out there.
Pirates at 144
Please PLEASE let it be Daniel Webb
I think he might be related to Brandon Webb
Although I haven’t found anything yet to prove it
BA ranked #55 in California
Two spots below D’Arnaud.
They say his FB has average velocity but crazy movement, plus a decent slider.
Wow.
KC is having an absolutely killer draft.
Ours is good, but I think theirs might be even a little bit better.
They're definitely loading up
on power pitchers and mashers
I know.
I mean, I wonder why he’s still on the board.
He had sandwich-round talent – must be signability/bonus.
That's apparently the conseusus
But it seems the Pirates are gonna for college players
BA had him #49 overall.
Switch hitter, some raw power, poor arm, lost some speed as he’s aged.
The last time we took a “baseball rat”, we ended up with Lillibridge, which turned out OK.
Alex Avila
Fifth rounder for the Tigers, is the son of one of our ex- front office guys (i.e. Al Avila, a special assistant in 2002).
Well that's the end of Day 1
Til Tomorrow at 11:30am
draft
This crop could always end up failing, but I’m in a much better mood than I was after the first day of last year’s draft.
2007: Danny Moskos and Duke Welker
2008: Pedro Alvarez and Tanner Scheppers
Unless the injury bug continues to bite our newest top two draftees, I think I already know who I expect more from in the majors.
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