2008 Draft Open Thread: Bucs Take Alvarez
by Charlie
on Jun 5, 2008 11:00 AM EDT
Have at it, folks. I'll be in and out today, but I'll definitely be around for the first pick when the draft starts at 2:00 PM EST.
Major League Baseball's Draft Page
John Sickels' Minor League Ball
UPDATE 1:53 PM: The MLB.com broadcast just reported the Rays have confirmed they will take Tim Beckham.
UPDATE 2:16 PM: Rays are on the clock. Why should the team that picks first be on the clock? Was the year they had to think about their selection not long enough?
UDPATE 2:22 PM: Rays take Tim Beckham. Bucs on the clock.
UPDATE 2:24 PM: Keith Law thinks Beckham was the best overall player and has the best chance of being a superstar.
UPDATE 2:27 PM: PIRATES TAKE PEDRO ALVAREZ. Given that Beckham was gone, I'm happy to see this. Let's hope we can get him signed and scoot him through the system quickly. Jim Callis of Baseball America says Alvarez was the best pick and that it sends the right message to their fans. I've written a fair amount about Alvarez--you can see some of my posts about him here.
UPDATE 2:33 PM: The Royals take high school first baseman Eric Hosmer.
UPDATE 2:38 PM: The Orioles select Brian Matusz. Living in San Diego, I wish I had gone out to watch Matusz.
UPDATE 2:43 PM: Baseball America on Alvarez:
Alvarez didn’t finish strong or have the best season, but getting a guy who might be the top talent in the draft class is something the Pirates haven’t done in recent years, even when they’ve drafted highly. Alvarez was said to have an asking price of around $8.5 million for a major league contract. He’ll be worth it if he stays at third base and hits the way the Pirates and most other clubs anticipate.
UPDATE 2:44 PM: The Giants take Buster Posey.
UPDATE 2:49 PM: The Marlins pick high schooler Kyle Skipworth, that rare "five tool" catcher. Five of six picks have been hitters so far; maybe teams are getting the message about taking pitchers with early first-round picks.
UPDATE 2:55 PM: The Reds take Yonder Alonso from Miami. Two first basemen gone now, plus Alvarez.
UPDATE 3:00 PM: The White Sox are up and they take Gordon Beckham, the other Georgia shortstop. The ESPN announcers are going on about how he's not a "tools" guy.
UPDATE 3:02 PM: Except for maybe Alonso, no big surprises so far.
UPDATE 3:05 PM: wooble finds this from Keith Law:
The pick makes sense for the Pirates, who have had a hard time developing power hitters and don't have a lot in their system. If he moved to first base, he'd have a clear path to the majors there. Same thing at third base. My only concern is that they didn't pick the best player on the board at this point. Justin Smoak would have made just as much if not more sense. But if everything clicks with Alvarez, the Pirates have a cleanup hitter for the next several years with 40-homer potential in the majors.
That doesn't really make a lot of sense. "Same thing at third base"? Oh well, it's up-to-the-minute, and he's on TV right now too.
UPDATE 3:06 PM: The Nats take Aaron Crow. That's the second year in a row they've selected a college pitcher from Missouri with their first pick (last year they took Ross Detwiler from Southwest Missouri State).
UPDATE 3:11 PM: The Astros take Jason Castro, a catcher from Stanford. I hadn't heard about him being an early first round pick. If the Astros had a good recent record with amateur talent, I might be inclined to trust them, but they don't.
UPDATE 3:16 PM: The Rangers grab Justin Smoak. Great pick at number eleven. The A's are up next; I can't wait to see what they're going to do.
UPDATE 3:21 PM: The Athletics, with the twelfth pick, take Jemile Weeks from Miami. That's Rickie's brother.
I have to step out for a couple hours. I'll be back later in the afternoon.
UPDATE 5:04 PM: The Twins took Aaron Hicks at 14, which doesn't surprise me at all. Former Pirates draftee and thief Lonnie Chisenhall goes at the end of the first round to the Indians -- wow. 30 picks are now gone, and the Brewers, who already grabbed Canadian high school shortstop Brett Lawrie with the sixteenth pick, have two more picks in the next five. Oh, and Mariners fans are apoplectic.
UPDATE 5:22 PM: The supplemental round has begun (the Pirates aren't involved, as usual) and teams are grabbing guys with live arms. I'll be back in an hour and a half or so.
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According to Baseball America
The Rays will take Tim Beckham
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266271.html
Which means the stage is set for Pedro Alvarez being a Bucco!
by Bad Andy on Jun 5, 2008 11:13 AM EDT 0 recs
Also useful:
Link. In case you like MLB.com’s scouting reports, but don’t like the popups. Just pick the name you want from the dropdown menu under the movie.
Incidentally, those movies are a great opportunity to polish your scouting abilities, if you’re interested in that.
by Vlad on Jun 5, 2008 11:17 AM EDT 0 recs
I will be golfing and miss the first few rounds,
but when I get back I am looking forward to reading everyones’ opinions. Here’s to the first important event in changing the future of this franchise!
by DITO on Jun 5, 2008 11:25 AM EDT 0 recs
uh-oh.....this gives me pause.....
I found this article on Project Prospect . It’s an ok site but it focuses almost exclusively on stats. Still, do you find this troubling?
http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2008/06/04/lincoln%E2%80%99s-rules-for-college-stats
It basically says….
elite college hitters who don’t strike out much have really good success rates. And really good college hitters who do strike out a lot have dizzying failure rates…..This does not bode well for uber-prospect Pedro Alvarez who strikeout rate is down this year (13.9%) – in a smaller sample size – but in his two previous seasons at Vandy has whiffed more than once in every five at bats. I’m not saying that Pedro Alvarez is destined to top out at Double-A. I’m not saying that he can’t turn into a fantastic hitter – the kind that a championship offense is built around. I’m just saying that no college hitter taken in the last seven drafts has been struck out as often and played a big league game. Alvarez is a really unique talent but his statistical profile will make him even more unique if he succeeds – Drew Stubbs was the only player I could find taken in the top 10 who struck out more often in college.
by my dixie wrecked on Jun 5, 2008 1:15 PM EDT 0 recs
That site also have an overall top prospect ranking
Cutch is 10th…....DL’s reject Weiters….......5th
by Bad Andy on
Jun 5, 2008 1:37 PM EDT
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I'm OK with Alvarez, but still like Smoak better and don't understand why he's not more hyped
by azibuck on Jun 5, 2008 1:37 PM EDT 0 recs
People are pretty reluctant to take a college first baseman, I think.
That dude does have a sweet swing, though.
by Charlie on
Jun 5, 2008 1:39 PM EDT
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smoak
I’d take Alvarez, but I wouldn’t let Smoak past 5 if I’m the Giants.
by bolton on
Jun 5, 2008 2:01 PM EDT
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Rays have confirmed they’ll take Beckham, MLB.com says.
by Charlie on Jun 5, 2008 1:48 PM EDT 0 recs
Hilarious
MLB.com just had on Jim Duquette, who was the GM of the Mets when they took Mike Pelfrey with the 9th pick in 2005. He was going on about how much he loved Jay Bruce as an amateur. Then why didn’t you draft him, genius?
by Charlie on Jun 5, 2008 1:56 PM EDT 0 recs
right after
this commercial break. Gah.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on
Jun 5, 2008 2:12 PM EDT
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jeebus
what a LaRoche-bag Selig is.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 5, 2008 2:11 PM EDT 0 recs
Karl Ravech: He’s a five-tool player. He’s African-American, too.
by woobie on Jun 5, 2008 2:18 PM EDT 0 recs
Tim,
turn your teevee down
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 5, 2008 2:20 PM EDT 0 recs
are ALL the teams going to take their full 5 minutes? What is this, the NFL?
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 5, 2008 2:21 PM EDT 0 recs
Alvarez
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 5, 2008 2:22 PM EDT 0 recs
Bud
unable to read teleprompter.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 5, 2008 2:22 PM EDT 0 recs
Why
are they trying to talk to Hosmer (who?) and didn’t talk to Alvarez?
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 5, 2008 2:29 PM EDT 0 recs
Maybe there wasn’t enough background noise when they gave Alvarez a call. Maybe they were confused when it turned out they could hear him clearly.
by Charlie on
Jun 5, 2008 2:31 PM EDT
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If ...
we didn’t pick Alvarez, I wanted Hosmer. He just LOOKS like a star.
by woobie on Jun 5, 2008 2:31 PM EDT 0 recs
Too bad Alvarez will be
blocked by Joey Bats until he (Alvarez) is 29 and ready to pick up the mantle.
by Trogluddite on Jun 5, 2008 2:33 PM EDT 0 recs
They'll just move Pedro to 1st
kicking LaSuck out the door.
by Bad Andy on
Jun 5, 2008 2:34 PM EDT
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Pearce to 1B, replacing Black Hole
Walker back to C, enabling us to dump RoPaul, Alvarez up in no time at all.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST
by cocktailsfor2 on
Jun 5, 2008 2:36 PM EDT
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No - the change in GM's
is eyewash. They’ve brought Littlefield back on a black helicopter, where he hovers over the city controlling the new management through brain waves. We’ll keep our prospects on the farm, waiting…. Think of how good the Rays could be if they allowed Eva Longoria to ripen a few more years in wherever their AA and AAA clubs are.
by Trogluddite on
Jun 5, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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Are you kidding, Trog?
Littlefield would NEVER have drafted Alvarez.
by woobie on
Jun 5, 2008 2:43 PM EDT
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He would've drafted Matusz
since he has a sick fetish for pitchers
by Bad Andy on
Jun 5, 2008 2:44 PM EDT
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Nah ...
... I think DL would’ve picked Posey and turned him into a long reliever.
by woobie on
Jun 5, 2008 3:00 PM EDT
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Where's RichieHebner?
I wonder if he thinks they took Alvarez so they could low-ball him and not sign him, in an effort to break the union. I can see it happening. I didn’t quite buy what Dejan wrote about if the Pirates don’t sign him, the fans would burn down PNC. I don’t see that at all.
by azibuck on Jun 5, 2008 2:42 PM EDT 0 recs
Not 1:1
I don’t mean that alone would break the union. I mean that, like slotting, it would be an effort by MLB vis-a-vis Connelly/Pirates to exert more control over players and salaries. I haven’t worked out all the details, I’m just trying to think like RH, and I mean that in a complimentary way. Just trying to think ‘how could this pick be sinister’?
by azibuck on
Jun 5, 2008 2:47 PM EDT
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If Pedro's not able to sign us
At least we’ll potentially get TWO Top 10 picks with a guaranteed 3rd pick.
by Bad Andy on
Jun 5, 2008 2:47 PM EDT
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OMG – I can actually understand what Buster Posey is saying.
by Charlie on Jun 5, 2008 2:42 PM EDT 0 recs
The Reds pick makes no sense ...
... don’t they have Joey Votto?
by woobie on Jun 5, 2008 2:50 PM EDT 0 recs
MLB teams don't draft for need.
By the time Alonso is ready for the majors, Votto will be getting expensive.
by Vlad on
Jun 5, 2008 2:52 PM EDT
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It’s generally unwise to worry much about positional need when drafting.
by Charlie on
Jun 5, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
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Good point ...
... I’ve watched entirely too much NFL draft coverage over the years. :)
by woobie on Jun 5, 2008 2:55 PM EDT 0 recs
Keith Law on Alvarez:
My only concern is that they didn’t pick the best player on the board at this point. Justin Smoak would have made just as much if not more sense. But if everything clicks with Alvarez, the Pirates have a cleanup hitter for the next several years with 40-homer potential in the majors.
Lower signing bonus aside, why would Smoak make more sense?
by woobie on Jun 5, 2008 2:58 PM EDT 0 recs
Keith Law had Smoak 3rd and Alvarez 5th
So Law’s opinion is more favorable to Smoak
by Bad Andy on
Jun 5, 2008 2:59 PM EDT
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If Alvarez is a 1B...
...then Smoak is a switch (rather than a lefty), a better glove, and about $2M less.
by Vlad on
Jun 5, 2008 4:31 PM EDT
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HMMM......Jason Castro to Houston
Worst pick of the draft so far.
by Bad Andy on Jun 5, 2008 3:06 PM EDT 0 recs
Smoak ...
... I doubt the Rangers let him slip any further. He’ll mash at that ballpark.
by woobie on
Jun 5, 2008 3:10 PM EDT
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Bucs sign Franklyn German to a minor league contract.
by Hitman Easler on Jun 5, 2008 3:09 PM EDT 0 recs
Interesting signing
He had a 2.08 ERA for Texas as a non-roster invitee then refused to be assigned their AAA affialate
Be aware he had 13BB and 15K’s in 21 2/3 innings
by Bad Andy on
Jun 5, 2008 3:13 PM EDT
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Lots of 1B drafted already
I think that’s 6 of the 1st 18 picks
by Bad Andy on Jun 5, 2008 3:50 PM EDT 0 recs
Alvarez.
Now we just have to get him signed.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
by UtesFan89 on Jun 5, 2008 3:54 PM EDT 0 recs
would the pirates take gerrit cole?
would the pirates take gerrit cole with the 2nd round pick if he is there (and pay him)? doubt he will be around that long, but would be a high-talent 2nd round pick.
by SpacePirate on Jun 5, 2008 4:02 PM EDT 0 recs
if they take Cole
there’s absoultely NO WAY the Pirates will be able to sign both. Cole is a Boras client
by Bad Andy on
Jun 5, 2008 4:05 PM EDT
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It's weird to think
that Smoak may have been #3, #2, or even #1 on the Rangers’ board
by DITO on Jun 5, 2008 4:04 PM EDT 0 recs
Seattle took a reliever.
Keith Law questioned it.
The fans at Lookout Landing hate it.
So weird to have a pick that we aren’t up in arms about, while other teams make questionable picks…
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
by UtesFan89 on Jun 5, 2008 4:09 PM EDT 0 recs
Haha at Seattle really sucking this year (21-39)
That meltdown by McLaren was classic. At least Fields is MLB ready I hear.
by Bad Andy on
Jun 5, 2008 4:14 PM EDT
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As was posted at LL
Now we’ll have a great bullpen that can protect nonexistent leads.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
by UtesFan89 on
Jun 5, 2008 4:18 PM EDT
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HAHAHAHA
That’s freaking hilarous. Sucks to be them right now.
by Bad Andy on
Jun 5, 2008 4:33 PM EDT
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Another 1st baseman selected
Allen Dykstra to San Diego
Doesn’t look like we’ll get Darnell by the time the Bucs pick again.
by Bad Andy on Jun 5, 2008 4:17 PM EDT 0 recs
Nothing sinister
They drafted a really good ballplayer, and they’ll try to sign him. I was intrigued by Smoak, though, and wouldn’t have minded seeing them take him or Beckham (my preference). They will have to shell out a lot of money to make this happen. To me, the real test comes in Rounds 2 and on. That is where the real test begins. Anyone (except Dave Littlefield) can handle the first round.
by RichieHebner on Jun 5, 2008 4:17 PM EDT 0 recs
Tell that to the fans in Seattle.
Anyone (except Dave Littlefield) can handle the first round.
They just might disagree.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
by UtesFan89 on
Jun 5, 2008 4:19 PM EDT
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I retract that
Is Littlefield secretly working with the Mariners?
by RichieHebner on Jun 5, 2008 4:23 PM EDT 0 recs
For what it's worth
USS Mariner is high on Alvarez…
Good job, Pittsburgh. I saw Pedro Alvarez in the summer of ‘06 and he’s like Albert Pujols younger brother. Kid can hit.
You can’t watch Alvarez hit and not see Pujols. It’s so clear.
I think Pedro was a slam dunk, and I’m surprised that, even with Beckham’s upside, the Rays didn’t take a player many people consider the best hitter to enter the draft in five or ten years.
Dang.
Now we just need to get him signed.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
by UtesFan89 on Jun 5, 2008 4:24 PM EDT 0 recs
Bud Selig
needs help with public speaking if he’s gonna be announcing the draft.
The Utah Jazz. The Jazz... duh.
The best NBA team in Utah... no doubts about it!
Playing For Pride. Pirates, Utes, Panthers, and more...
Because, in the end, only one team can "win it all".
by UtesFan89 on Jun 5, 2008 4:34 PM EDT 0 recs
So...
Keith Law has a lot of RHPs in his remaining top 12…Bucs go that way in round two?
by DITO on Jun 5, 2008 4:48 PM EDT 0 recs
Former Bucco draft pick
Lonnie Chisenhall just got drafted by the Tribe
by Bad Andy on Jun 5, 2008 4:49 PM EDT 0 recs