Pirates Uncomfortable Throwing to Paulino
There is no sign that the lunatics are running the asylum, but it should not be dismissed that the Pirates' pitchers -- unwittingly, in most cases -- played a role in management's decision to keep Raul Chavez and demote Ronny Paulino.
There had been a sense most of the season that pitchers felt uneasy throwing breaking pitches in certain situations, particularly with a runner on third. There also had been a sense that they struggled to find a rhythm in terms of wanting the same pitch at the same time. This was not unique to Paulino. Depending on the day or outcome, it could be the case with [Ryan] Doumit, too, although his defensive work has improved markedly this summer.
This is ironic, to me, in light of the Ronny-Paulino-is-great-at-calling-games debate we've had at various points in the past two years. Most of the evidence that suggested that Paulino was good at calling games was either dubious and anecdotal (pitchers praised his game calling a couple of times) or just plain dubious (Paulino had a better catchers' ERA than Doumit at certain points, and never mind that Doumit often had to catch some really bad pitchers, and that his sample size was tiny). All the serious evidence suggests that there are not important differences in game calling ability among major league catchers. The only reason why this debate ever came up is because Jim Tracy just didn't like calling pitches from the dugout. (Paulino called his own pitches; Doumit didn't.)
Now Paulino has fallen out of favor because both his hitting and his defense are terrible, and it turns out that people don't really think Paulino's catching is so good for pitchers anymore. And -- shocker! -- Paulino's catchers' ERA is a dreadful 5.51 this year. This time, the pitchers' beliefs about Paulino make some sense: I wouldn't want to throw a breaking ball to that guy with a runner on third, either. But I'll give Paulino the benefit of the doubt on this one, because the things I can verify are bad enough: he can't hit, and he can't play defense. That was clear enough last year, too, but thanks to Paulino's vaunted game calling, we had to put up with dozens more games of terrible play.
This is why it's generally not good to make arguments that fly in the face of decades of evidence. Players and managers and writers say things all the time for all kinds of reasons. It turns out that the likely reason why Paulino's game calling was such a big deal was because Jim Tracy was lazy. Remove the lazy guy, and all of a sudden nobody talks about the game calling issue anymore.
(UPDATE responding to Azibuck's comment below: I'm not saying--and haven't said--that pitchers' reluctance to throw breaking balls to Paulino with a man on third has anything to do with his game calling ability. I also think that the Pirates' pitchers may have a point this time. What I'm saying is that it's hard to measure the effects of these things, and both of them are really just red herrings anyway. The game calling issue arose repeatedly last year until, finally, it emerged that Jim Tracy just didn't like calling games from the dugout. That was it, really; that was the whole issue, and now that Tracy is gone we don't hear about it anymore. Now, the pitchers' lack of comfort with Paulino and his ability to catch breaking balls is an issue. Maybe the pitchers have a legitimate beef here, but the real problem, and the real reason this is coming up, is that Paulino can't hit or play defense. If he could, I'm pretty sure we wouldn't be hearing about this. It's just a way for people to explain their dissatisfaction with other things.)
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12 comments
Comments
Catchers
It has little to do with statistics. Pitchers are a strange breed and many feel more comfortable throwing to certain guys. Catchers who call pitches go over the game plan with the pitching coach and the starter about 2 hours before game time. Tendencies as well as what hitters are hot-cold etc. When you have a pitcher who shakes off signs several times a game they will want to throw to someone else. If they shake off changes or breaking balls with a runner on third because they have little confidence the catcher will block the ball in the dirt that destroys their confidence in him. Pitchers believe that they must be in sync with their battery mate. It has everything to with the human psyche and little to do with statistics. We all prefer to work with someone we have a connection with rather than someone in whom we no confidence in certain situations. This is not isolated to baseball.
by buccoben on Jun 8, 2008 6:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Certainly this has to do with statistics. If differences in game calling aren’t manifested in long-term differences in wins and losses - and they don’t seem to be - then why does this matter? It’s not about confidence or comfort, unless those things help the team win. And if game calling is an issue for some pitchers, why can’t John Russell or another coach do the game calling from the dugout?
by Charlie on Jun 8, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The question
What’s relevant isn’t the pitcher’s comfort level, it’s whether it affects performance. The evidence overwhelmingly shows it doesn’t.
by WTM on Jun 8, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Performance
It sometimes has a great deal to do with results. If a pitcher shakes off a curve because he isn’t sure the catcher will block it and then throws a fastball which is ripped he blames it on the catcher for having to throw a pitch he did not want. Again this is game to game and sometimes AB to AB. You can show people all kinds of statistics(seat belt usage,tobacco use etc.) but their personal experiences outweigh all data, like it or not. I have called pitches for 30 years in high school and college and would always rather have the catcher call them but have had many tell me to call them because they cannot figure out what the pitcher wants. I have tried letting pitchers call for themselves but at the first time they make a mistake many want me to call them.It is much easier for both to blame me for the results which is part of my job as a coach. The NCAA is about to take away calling pitches from the bench because it adds at least 15-20 minutes to each game. If they allow headsets like QB’s in pro football it would work. High schools could not afford that technology so I will get glares from the pitcher every time a HR is hit off of them. MLB is trying to shorten the games and are frowning on pitch to pitch catcher interaction with the dugout.
by buccoben on Jun 8, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with buccoben, but Charlie too
I’m a little hesitant after the last thing I thought Charlie misread, but here goes.
Charlie, I think I agree with all your points regarding game-calling and statistics, but I don’t see how they pertain to the article. It’s about game-calling only in that it talked about a catcher calling a breaking pitch. Otherwise, this doesn’t have to do with what I know as “game calling”—the calling of pitches in a given sequence to a given hitter. The point of the article is that pitchers were situationally hesitant because of Paulino’s actual ability.
Is confidence relevant to performance? Probably not in a measureable way, but otherwise buccoben is right, right, right. If you don’t think there is a symbiotic relationship between P and C, or SS and 2B, or CF and corner OF, then I’m guessing you never played with or worked closely with players in that relationship over a period of time (more than one season). I’m sorry if that sounds haughty.
I guess, if comfort and confidence don’t matter, then why not put them in a comfortable position? Because this is really something that’s game/situation specific. cERA is irrelevant. The situation could even be irrelevant to the outcome the majority of the time, like a 2-0 game, in the 3rd inning of an eventual 7-1 game. But in the 8th inning of a tie game, it could be wildly relevant.
by azibuck on Jun 8, 2008 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I know the article wasn’t about game calling (and I didn’t say it was). My point was that the justification for playing Paulino over Doumit at catcher last year was that Paulino was great at game calling, and you couldn’t find a pitcher to say anything bad about him. Now the manager obviously doesn’t like Paulino anymore, it’s totally clear that he doesn’t hit or field well, his CERA is in the toilet, and the pitchers (at least under the cover of anonymity) tell a totally different story about how they feel about Paulino’s catching.
Their complaints aren’t about game calling and may actually have some validity, but I think that, both last year and now, the arguments being made about Paulino are both red herrings. Last year what we talked about was Paulino’s game calling, but it turned out the only reason the Pirates cared about it was because Jim Tracy didn’t want to call games from the bench. This year the story is Paulino’s ability to catch breaking pitches, and I don’t doubt that that matters to the Pirates, but ultimately we probably wouldn’t be seeing newspaper articles about it if Paulino could hit or play defense.
Is confidence relevant to performance? Probably not in a measureable way, but otherwise buccoben is right, right, right. If you don’t think there is a symbiotic relationship between P and C, or SS and 2B, or CF and corner OF, then I’m guessing you never played with or worked closely with players in that relationship over a period of time (more than one season). I’m sorry if that sounds haughty.
I’m not offended and I don’t doubt that the confidence that might come from working with an experienced catcher might seem important to a pitcher. But if the difference in performance is not measurable, then what is it?
by Charlie on Jun 9, 2008 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I think it exists/is important, either
But I think the only thing we can really say with confidence is simply that it’s not measurable. Not that it doesn’t exist.
by matskralc on Jun 9, 2008 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is it? The boogeyman
But try telling my kids HE doesn’t exist.
by azibuck on Jun 9, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Off the thread topic, but . . .
I finally got my web site updated with the draft results. I’m really googled out now.
by WTM on Jun 8, 2008 7:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In the end,
I think the only thing we really need to say is that Ronny Paulino sucks.
by patthatt on Jun 9, 2008 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
7 for 10 in his 1st 2 Indy games
Paulino is fired up apparently. I don’t think he was in AAA for long back in 06 when broke out then crashed and severely burn. Chavez has done wonders for this team while Doumit is a strong bat when needed especially with interleague play coming up. Keep rakin Ronny and we’ll see you in September.
Really it has been the bench players and the strong OF production that has gotten us flirtin with .500 for over a month now. Let’s beat Randy Johnson today and then sweep the Nats!
by Bad Andy on Jun 9, 2008 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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