Jonah Keri: Pirates Could Contend Next Year

by Charlie on Jul 15, 2008 12:52 AM EDT Comment 14 comments

ESPN.com's Jonah Keri, on why the Pirates are like Dickie Noles (and yeah, this is a couple days old, but this is what ESPN gets for publishing this at 5:00 PM on a Friday):

Noles was the Cubs' resident arsonist, compiling a 5.15 ERA in an otherwise solid bullpen. The Pirates' once-promising set of young starting pitchers now looks abysmal, with Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, Paul Maholm and presumptive staff ace Ian Snell all flailing and the Bucs owning the worst team ERA in baseball. On the plus side, the Pirates somehow woke up with baseball's best outfield, with Nate McLouth, Jason Bay and Xavier Nady providing offensive fireworks, the latter two being among this year's top All-Star snubs.

Considering that offense looked like the team's prevailing problem with pitching the strong suit, could a few pitcher turnarounds, combined with some well-placed moves, make the Pirates a surprise contender in '09? Stranger things have happened.

I don't mean to pick on Keri here--he's far smarter than me, and he's not even wrong. (Well, he is wrong about Maholm "flailing," but whatever.) But is there a year that goes by that some well-placed commentator doesn't say something like this? And do those contending seasons ever actually happen? Or, to put it better, do they ever happen to the Pirates?

Teams do contend out of nowhere, despite themselves. The '03 Royals are an example I often mention. The '07 Rockies may well turn out to be another example. But these teams are usually one-year wonders, and the teams involved are usually no better off once it's over.

The Pirates could be a contender in '09--if they keep all the hitters who have been so productive for them this season, and those hitters continue to be good, and some of their pitchers rebound, and they make some shrewd moves to shore up the pitching staff. But then Jason Bay and Xavier Nady, two of their best hitters this season, will be gone when the year's up, along with Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez and Damaso Marte, and what kind of franchise will the Pirates be then?

Again: the Pirates need to build the sort of team that can be competitive for years, not the kind of team that can contend once, by accident. The Pirates tried to be that team in '03, when they grabbed Jeff Suppan and a bunch of hitters on the cheap. It didn't work. When the Pirates are on the verge of building something lasting, it won't be a "surprise." The people who really pay attention will see it coming from a million miles away, because it'll come from the ground up, not from a serendipitous bunch of performances by a mediocre group of players who are already supposed to be in their primes.

0 recs | Comment 14 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Pure Nonsense From Keri!

If the Pirates do not make significant moves before the July 31 deadline and during the off-season, they will not be going anywhere in 2009 and will once again be a sub-.500 team.

by thegunner on Jul 15, 2008 1:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you Charie...

Unless a team loses a significant amount of 1-run games or has serious injuries lasting most of the season to key players, the team will not perform much differently in the following season. It just doesn’t happen because of the slim probability that several players will all have break-out seasons all at the same time. I doubt whether Wilson, Doumit and Nady can all replicate their fine offensive seasons since each represents personal highs. As a result, we can expect them to “regress to the mean” and perform more similarly to how they have produced in past seasons next year. That fact, coupled with our abysmal pitching just doesn’t point to a break-out season next year for the team. Further, I do not attribute the poor performances on the part of Gorzo, Snell, Duke and most of the bullpen to injuries. I seriously doubt the abilities of this group and so we can expect more of the same from them next year.

In summary, I continue to express my frustration with Neil’s failure to make significant personnel changes and can only envision a 17th straight losing season for us next year unless some real trades are made.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 15, 2008 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Regession to the mean

While I’m not saying the Pirates are going to break their streak next year, I think it’s pessimistic to think that their hitters will “regress to the mean” while their pitchers won’t. Snell and Gorzo have both been solid starters at points in their careers and are having terrible years. They are still young, so even if there isn’t any more “development” in store for them, they have time to get back to where they were.

On the other hand, Doumit may take a step back, but there’s not enough data to say what his average should be, and there’s reason to believe he’ll be a very solid hitter for a while. Heck, maybe Freddie will be “luckier” next year to help pick up the slack :)

by BadMaafala on Jul 15, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As long as you keep saying it, I will too:

What positive trade that was open to Huntington over the offseason did he decline?

by Vlad on Jul 15, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Possible Trades

No one has any idea, other than Coonelly, Huntington and a handful of others in the front office, what trades may have been proposed or offered to the Pirates since the Fall of 2007.

But it is safe to assume that there have been many opportunities to make deals. Now maybe none of these deals favored the Pirates, but I think that is preposterous.

In order to improve the Pirates, trades MUST be made, both before the July 31 deadline and over the off-season.

Pulling the trigger on trades is something that must be done. In order to improve the Pirates, the front office MUST give up perceived talent to get talent. Not all trades are successful.

But the new front office is going to be measured by their drafts and signings and by their trades.

by thegunner on Jul 15, 2008 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it doesn't have to be trades

say for example they hold marte for compensation picks because they feel they’re better than any deal being offered. huntington will be blasted by many impatient commenters on this site for not blowing up the roster when really, he’s doing just that. let me go ahead and guarantee this one right now.

next year’s pitching draft class should be resoundingly better than this year’s. what would you (well not you in particular gunner, but everyone in general) rather have, marte traded for two middling prospects or say a top 40 pick in next year’s draft?

by johnnycuff on Jul 15, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texas Hold'em

Ever play? Serious players give up good hands all the time without making a bet, dependent on several factors. Perhaps Neil first has to establish that there’s a new sheriff in town, and he’s not the shoot first ask questions later type.

Help me understand why trades have to be made before the deadline? Indications are they’ll keep Marte and get the picks. They’re not in danger of losing anyone else. What did CLE get for Sabathia? I’d take a prospect like LaPorta for Bay next year if we hold him that long. If not a great prospect, I think it’s becoming very smart to go the arb/comp route.

by azibuck on Jul 15, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, there's a new sheriff in town...

and I don’t think it’s Matt Dillon but rather Barney Fife. Maybe the reason Neil hasn’t pulled the trigger is because Coonely wouldn’t give him his bullet! Either way, if he doesn’t do something soon the Mayberry All-Stars will be able to beat the Bucs. I’m sure Goober could hit better than .229 (Sanchez) and I know Gomer has better stuff than JVB and Floyd the barber could have out-performed LaRoche during the months of April and May. Seriously.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 15, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

johnnycuff and azibuck

Trades don’t have to be made before the July 31 deadline.

But if a contending team wants a Pirate because they think that they have a post-season shot, the Pirates can probably make a much better deal pre-July 31 than in the off-season. If they don’t like the deal, they don’t have to make it.

But trades have to be made at some point, and I feel that Coonelly and Huntington are afraid to pull the trigger. They only got rid of Torres because he was unhappy with the way he had been treated by the old regime. I am not very excited about what we got in return.

As for compensation picks for Marte versus “two middling prospects”, this all comes down to player evaluation. At this point,I am still NOT confident in the Pirates’ player evaluation abilities. This has been their shortcoming for the last 10-15 years, and I have seen nothing yet from the new regime that is going to convince me differently. What you consider “two middling prospects” could be a future impact prospect and a middling prospect with proper evaluation.

And if they get two draft picks for Marte as compensation, who is to say that the picks won’t be more of Moskos, JVB or Bullington?

Yes, Mientkiewicz and Michaels are improvements, but one was a minor league contract and the other a waiver wire deal. The Pirates gave up nothing in either case, and neither
of the M & M boys is going to play a role on a future Pirate contender.

I want to see some action, not just talk. I’m not from Missouri, but “show me”.

by thegunner on Jul 15, 2008 4:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

OK

I don’t want to argue it, just point out that you wrote “trades MUST be made, both before the July 31 deadline and over the off-season.” Then you wrote, “Trades don’t have to be made before the July 31 deadline.” And if you’re not confident in their evaluation skills, then I think urgency is the worst thing to advocate for.

by azibuck on Jul 16, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what he said

by johnnycuff on Jul 16, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

gunner

As for compensation picks for Marte versus "two middling prospects", this all comes down to player evaluation. At this point,I am still NOT confident in the Pirates’ player evaluation abilities. This has been their shortcoming for the last 10-15 years, and I have seen nothing yet from the new regime that is going to convince me differently.

Could you give the new people at least enough time-at a minimum August 15-to get as many of their draftees signed as possible? In reality, they really need a few years to significantly improve the minor league organization, but I guess this is beyond the scope of understanding for members like you and IPF.

What does it take for people like you to understand that the “hangover effect” from the DL years can`t be gotten rid of overnight? It`s going to take years.

And if they get two draft picks for Marte as compensation, who is to say that the picks won’t be more of Moskos, JVB or Bullington?

And how do we know that trading guys like Marte, Bay, Nady, and Wilson would get us anything better in return than another Moskos or Bullington? The proposed trades I`ve seen bandied about this site and elsewhere in recent months have been underwhelming, to say the least.

“But trades have to be made at some point, and I feel that Coonelly and Huntington are afraid to pull the trigger.”

Complete nonsense.

by patthatt on Jul 16, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ding ding ding!

“What does it take for people like you to understand that the "hangover effect" from the DL years can`t be gotten rid of overnight? It`s going to take years.”

If you’re in a hole, it’s a good idea to stop digging, but even if you do that you’re still at the bottom of the hole you just dug. It’s not like God’s going to magic you out, shazam! You have to devote time and effort to climbing…

by Vlad on Jul 16, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Going into the season ...

I was a hugh BELIEVER in the Pirates starting rotation, with or without Morris. My only
concern was with the offense. Lo and behold, even with Sanchez, LaRoche and Paulino struggling to hit their own weight, this OFFENSE can score runs … the defense has been
adequate … but, the rotation has given up more runs than there are trees in the forest.

I feel the Pirates are fortunate to have 44 wins at this point … and I think NH and JR have
made all the right moves, even though JR has more patients with the starters than I would have had. There have been several occassions where his patients has “paid off”, especially with Maholm. My vote of confidence goes to NH and JR.

by Pirate in Ole VA on Jul 15, 2008 7:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs