A's Trade Joe Blanton to Phillies

by Charlie on Jul 17, 2008 8:43 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

The A's have traded Joe Blanton to the Phillies for three minor leaguers: second baseman Adrian Cardenas, pitcher Josh Outman and outfielder Matthew Spencer. I like Cardenas a lot--he's young for the Florida State League but has been very good there, and he's a former first round pick. But the Athletics' apparent decision to blow up their team seems like an odd one, since they're pretty much one Vladimir Guerrero back tweak from making their way back to the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus gives them about a 40% chance of making it. Outman and Spencer aren't particularly interesting, and none of the three players the A's got should be much help this year.

The more I think about this, though, the more I like it from Oakland's perspective, and it reminds me of something I've been talking about the past couple of days. A season in which you unexpectedly contend can cause you big problems if you take your eye off the ball. Maybe Billy Beane looks at this team and thinks that Justin Duchscherer and Greg Smith and Dana Eveland are pitching over their heads (even accounting for the solid defense behind them, they're not this good), and thinks that if he doesn't keep trading for players who might help him in 2011 or 2012 he might regret it once he gets there. And maybe if he keeps Rich Harden and Blanton and then Harden gets hurt, he won't have much of a team in 2009. And maybe Blanton's a good trade candidate anyway because Oakland's good defense makes him look better than he is, and it shouldn't be hard to find a replacement who can post a similar ERA with that defense.

What Beane is doing flaunts conventional wisdom in a big way, and I still don't think he got enough for Harden, but his patience may well pay big dividends in the end. If the A's finish this year way out of it and then Cardenas blossoms into a star--and both outcomes are possible--then Beane looks like a genius yet again.

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Beane owns a stake in the team now

This would help him to stiffen his resolve when making deals like these.

Steve Z

by steve_z on Jul 17, 2008 8:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You can't be scared

to make deals when they present themselves, whether you’re a few games under .500 or a few games out of a playoff spot, because of what MIGHT happen. You’ve got to stay fixed on the plan. Eyes on the prize—though, of course, you also can’t be blind and fail to make the most of opportunities that arise.

There. I’ve just kinda contradicted myself, which serves to point op that, you know what? GM’s a tough job.

by bucdaddy on Jul 17, 2008 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I mean

a tough job to do right. Anybody can do it the way DL did.

by bucdaddy on Jul 17, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know why I am attempting to get into Beane's head,

but I would bet he cares far more about having the best team with the best chance to win a world series than just trying to get into the playoffs and hoping they get lucky, which that hasn’t worked in the past.

At this point, I really believe he wants the best team in the MLB-anything less is not good enough-and he just doesn't have it this year.

by DITO on Jul 17, 2008 10:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think I can see Beane's idea.

Blanton is a starting pitcher with about 10 starts left this season (probably 12, but will use 10 to keep math easy). A good pitcher will win about 6 or 7 of those starts. If he has a minor league pitcher that is capable of winning 3 to 5 starts (or more), he’s quibbling about a couple of games. Will a couple of games make a difference?? Chances are, probably not. If he can make significant improvement to his team for the future, he may feel it is worth it.

by Thunder on Jul 17, 2008 11:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it's not even that big of a gap

the difference between a third and fifth starter over the rest of the season is about one win…

assuming 6 IP per start, 15 starts, and ERAs of 4.50 and 5.50:
(5.50-4.50)/9156 = 10 runs saved

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 18, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beane has built some solid teams...

but has yet to get to the World Series. I remember checking out an online chat with BA’s Callis soon after the Harden trade. He felt that the trade would work to Beane’s favor, yet made a comment that if Kenny Williams had made the same trade he would have fans calling for his head.

by ElliottBayBucco on Jul 17, 2008 11:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think the Phils

got jobbed on this trade. There is no real evidence that Blanton is that big of a step up from Adam Eaton (from what I can tell).

This seems more like a pressure move. The Phillies blew their chances on getting a real starter, but felt the need to do something to placate the city.

If Philly drops any of their next 6 games (vs the Mets and Marlins), things are gonna get really interesting around here…

.500 or bust...

by phillybucco on Jul 18, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Say what you want about Beane

but the man has two big brass ones. Trading Harden and Blanton for prospects at this point in the season goes well against conventional wisdom and he’s really opening himself up for criticism from the media.

I’m not sure what I think about these last two trades, but I can say I’m glad there’s a GM like Beane around to help keep the game interesting.

by scoreboard on Jul 18, 2008 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure

exactly how much I’d worry about whatever media there are in Oakland. It sure ain’t going to be like it would in NYC or Bahston or Chicago. Probably a lot tamer—like Pittsburgh.

And anyway, the media are probably the very last thing on Beane’s mind, if he thinks of them at all.

by bucdaddy on Jul 18, 2008 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beane

Just wondering at what point,if any,constantly trading established players for prospects becomes a bit like the Worm Ouroboros,continually chasing it’s tail…?

by rissaldar on Jul 18, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not a downgrade for the A's

Unlike the Pirates, the A’s have absurd pitching depth. This is more of a sideways move for this season (and an upgrade for the future), as Blanton’s performance is easily replaceable by one of the A’s many pitching prospects.

Why don’t more GMs have ownership stakes in their teams? It seems like they would make fewer moves that would be potentially damaging in the long term while only marginally useful in the present. Though, I suppose this could make GMs less inclined to take on large contracts and salaries. But really, owners can do that anyway by themselves.

by wickethewok on Jul 18, 2008 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What else Beane might be thinking

Maybe in addition to self-assessment of whether they’re real contenders this year, he might be handicapping the AL. He might think that even in a short series they’re probably overmatched against Boston, and probably TB. So they’d either have to overtake LAA or battle 2-3 teams from the Central, plus possibly the Yankees, just to get close to BOS/TB for the wild card. He might not have liked his odds even if he kept those guys and even added someone. And I think he’d be right.

Of the trades, although I’m in lockstep with Charlie on every issue that has ever come up at Bucs Dugout, I like the Harden one best. I’ll bet Beane didn’t lose a wink over that one, and perhaps every morning since has woken up and thought, thank fucking God I don’t have to worry about that china doll again.

by azibuck on Jul 18, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs