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Brewers Trade for Ray Durham

Charlie_tiny by Charlie on

The Brewers have acquired Ray Durham from the Giants for practically nothing--the Giants only get fringe prospects Steve Hammond and Darren Ford, neither of whom figure to have much of a career. Good work by the Brewers: Durham is pretty limited at this stage of his career, but he is posting a .385 OBP this year while Rickie Weeks struggles to stay above the Mendoza Line. Weeks is still a pretty promising player, but letting Durham start a couple days a week seems like a smart thing to do.

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Ford

is a real toolsy guy that shows flashes of potential when you see him live,but the numbers never seem to add up.
I would not rule him out yet though.

Check out my blog at thoughtsofrs@blogspot.com

by Count Vertigo on Jul 21, 2008 9:18 AM EDT   0 recs

Do the Brewers pay Durham's salary?

Probably worth it to the Giants just to get the salary off the books. Plus they can get a longer look at their large group of young middle infielders.

Doesn’t help my fantasy team though…... Durham was a nice, inexpensive surprise.

by haven on Jul 21, 2008 10:47 AM EDT   0 recs

They split the remaining salary.

by ol Pete on Jul 21, 2008 12:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Everybody's doing it...

Except for the Pirates. That is making trades. Neil has been in his job for about 9 months and yet to pull the trigger on any major deal. His first excuse was that our players under-performed last year and has only minimal trade value. Now that several of them have over-performed (Bay, Nady) he still can’t pull the trigger either because he doesn’t have the guts for fear of making a mistake or because he has so overly-valued his personnel that nobody wants to pay what he’s asking for. Whatever the reason, we’re headed for a professional record 16 straight losing seasons and Neil seems willing to stand pat again. What is the record for standing pat? Does anybody know?

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 21, 2008 11:00 AM EDT   0 recs

Or option #3...

he’s being offered crap and has the balls to say no unlike previous GM’s. Tell me Illinois, would you be the 1st line to bash a NH if trades away Marte, Nady or Wilson for yet another AAA relief pitcher. These teams are offering garbage. It’s been reported that the Yankees are trying to stick with Melky Cabrera as the center of Nady/Marte deal. Should we jump on that just because everyone else is making deals. Everyone else is making deals because they are improving their clubs. If we don’t walk away with one or two high upside pitching prospects we shouldn’t pull the trigger. These players are the only trading chips we have in the entire organization. Now where I do agree with you is that I feel Bay needs to be traded as well and from everything we are reading it cetainly seems as if that is not the plan. I just don’t see us being ready to compete for a championship within the next couple of years so this doesn’t make sense to me. Maybe it’s just posturing on NHs part…hopefully. Anyway. I think NH shoudl get credited for not panicking yet and holding out for deals that will help us win championships down the road and not reaching .500 next year. It is all too obvious that every GM out there realizes the pressure NH is under and is trying to low ball him. The only thing he can do to maintain leverage is insist he doesn’t want to trade Nady, Bay and Wilson and that he’s willing to hang on to Marte. That’s it. Right now we have a good ole stand off. Let’s see who will be the first GM to blink. This is an important trade deadling for NH because he is building his reputation now. Lord only knows what will happen if he is taken advantage of. Let’s hope he has the fortitude that appears to have.

by Slick1 on Jul 21, 2008 12:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

To Slick1:

I would never want to see us trade for a reliever who pitches at any level because I believe that relievers can be found anywhere. What we need is starting pitching and a proven power hitter. Standing pat with a team that won 68 games is not an acceptable alternative and never will be. I can understand what you are saying as it relates to last years off-season, but now that both Nady, Marte and Bay are having wonderful seasons they should be traded. I’m not privy to know what has been offered to Neil and so I can’t tell you what trades he should have made. That’s what he’s paid to do. If nobody likes to deal straight up then package these guys and find someone who does.

The mistake he made was not offering the managerial position to Dave Duncan of the Cardinals who has repeatedly taken pitchers that have been discarded by other teams and turned them into someone everybody wants. Just look at Jeff Weaver, Suppan, Wainright, Looper, Wellemeyer, Carpenter, and Jason Marquis. All of these guys had career years under Duncan’s leadership. Yet, at the same time Snell, Gorzo, and Duke have gotten progressively worse under the past two regimes.

Our team has plenty of talent and can turn things around with what it has either my shrewd trades or acquiring a pitching coach who knows what he’s doing. Either way, the responsibility falls on Neil’s shoulders and so far he’s done nothing except extend another losing season with no hope on the horizon. That’s his fault for not doing something.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 21, 2008 4:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Package deal! Package deal!

I can actually hear Dejan rolling his eyes right now.

If you don’t know what offers were on the table (and you, like the rest of us, clearly don’t), then how on earth can you criticize NH for not making one of them? You’re criticizing just to criticize. There is plenty of stuff to get upset about with this organization. You really don’t need to be inventing things like you are here.

It’s obvious you kind of are in daydream la-la land, though, if you think this team has plenty of talent…

by matskralc on Jul 21, 2008 4:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Matskralc:

We are in the midst of our 16 consecutive losing season and have done nothing to change the talent level on the team but yet you criticize me for NH’s failure to take action? You either have the patience of a saint or baseball savvy of Littlefield. I don’t know which. I’ll turn the table on you and ask you to tell me one active transaction that NH has done right.

I don’t need to invent things to become upset over…we’ve got 16 of them. Take some pride in your team and demand more of them besides 68 wins. We’ll never improve until people like you begin demanding that NH raise the bar and hold him accountable for both what he does and doesn’t do.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 21, 2008 5:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I see Vlad isn't here yet

So I’ll fill in: name one trade that was on the table that NH should have pulled the trigger on.

by matskralc on Jul 21, 2008 3:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey, thanks!

Nice to know someone’s watching my back.

by Vlad on Jul 21, 2008 4:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

All this ranting and raving about NH

And still not one concrete example of anything NH could have actually done. This isn’t a computer game. There’s no “force trade” button for NH to press.

by matskralc on Jul 21, 2008 8:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree with your general comments,

but you should stop acting like it is unbelievable no one can give you an example of a deal that was turned down and shouldn’t have been. It is all behind closed doors right now—asking for a “concrete example” at this point doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Everyone is just providing his or her opinion on what should be done with what that individual believes may be on the table.

by DITO on Jul 22, 2008 12:10 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't care what somebody invents

...I mean, believes is on the table. I’d prefer we stick with what we know. And what we know is that just about every offer that has come out in the press has been crap. The only reasonably sounding offer I can recall is the recent Wilson-to-LA rumor, and from what I can recall about that, it’s Colletti that’s the hesitant one.

Sure, there may be good trades being passed up. Not a single one of us knows that to actually be true. To continue carrying on like it’s common knowledge (and completely contrary to what IS common knowledge) is ridiculous.

by matskralc on Jul 22, 2008 6:40 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The only ridiculous comment

is yours—”I am right because you can’t tell me exactly what is happening behind closed doors.” We will find out for sure, later, what was on the table.

Maybe I am wrong, but I don’t think IPF was saying “trade everyone for peanuts.” Rather, he was saying NH is in a position where he should be able to start the rebuilding process now, since several Bucs have a lot of value, and that a tradeless July is an early sign of ineptitude to capitalize. I am not saying I completely agree with that, but it is certainly not a ridiculous position to take.

For a fan to say that the Pirates current situation is such that NH should be able to pull off valuable trades for the PBC before the deadline passes is not at all ridiculous. It is a matter of opinion, sure, but so is 95% of everything ever posted on this site.

by DITO on Jul 22, 2008 9:15 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, it's a ridiculous position for him to take...

...because he’s making a nested chain of dubious and unsupported assumptions (that there were good offers over the offseason, that a lack of July trades up to this point necessarily implies no moves before the deadline, etc.), and then using that house-built-on-sand to launch a (baseless) personal attack against NH: “he still can’t pull the trigger either because he doesn’t have the guts for fear of making a mistake or because he has so overly-valued his personnel that nobody wants to pay what he’s asking”.

When you make a logical argument, you examine the available evidence and then draw conclusions and reasonable inferences from it. When you make an illogical argument (like IPF’s), you decide what you would like to be true, and then wave your hands and shout a lot so nobody notices that you don’t have any real factual backing for your assertions.

If you want to criticize NH for not making any moves at the deadline, then the time to do that is after the deadline is past. If he hasn’t made any moves, or if he’s turned down any solid offers, then we’ll actually know it, rather than just making up circumstances and motivations out of whole cloth.

by Vlad on Jul 22, 2008 9:33 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Vlad:

The facts are as follows:
1. NH chose to make no impact deals with a team that won only 68 games.
2. The team is feeling the impact of this and is in last place.
3. Pirates have the worst SP staff according to ERA in all of baseball
4. Bay has responded very well and is extremely marketable
5. Nady is 5th in the league in hitting and is value is at an all-time high
6. Snell, Gorzo, and Duke have regressed terribly
7. Many of the quality teams have made impact deals already this season
8. Several teams are very interested in Wilson who is having his 2nd best year
9. Just two short years ago many conisered us to have the finest young pitchers in the game.

Those are all statements I have made previously which are indisputable. The only facts I’ve ever heard you state are that NH has not been offered any deals. This is a board of opinion and facts, both of which I have provided. Just because you don’t agree with me, doesn’t mean I’m wrong—it simply means we have a difference of opinion. So, please knock of the personal attacks and stick to the facts which I have stated which are neither “dubious” or “unsubstantiated”. If you can’t disagree with me in a civil manner then I would prefer you simply ignore me. Either way, try to afford me the curtesy I’ve given your posts.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 22, 2008 9:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Indisputable? Hardly.

1) NH may not have had the option of making any impact deals (as your use of the word “chose” implies). You persistently refuse to acknowledge this as a possibility, even though no attractive offers for Bay were reported in the press, and there was widespread skepticism throughout baseball about the state of his knee.
6) In what world has Duke regressed? His ERA and WHIP are lower this year than they were in 2007, and his component ratios are pretty much flat across the board. He’s been exactly the same guy this year that he was last year.
9) Nobody who knew baseball would’ve said two years ago that we had the best young pitching in the game. We had a bunch of interesting young guys, some of whom had had success in the past… but off the top of my head we were pretty clearly behind Minnesota (Santana, Liriano, Garza, Baker, Bonser, Perkins, and Crain) and Anaheim (Lackey, Weaver, Santana, Saunders, and K-Rod), and you could’ve made a pretty good case for us also being behind the Marlins (Dontrelle, Olsen, Johnson, Sanchez, Nolasco, Petit, Mitre, Pinto, etc.) the Cubs (Zambrano, Prior, Hill, Marshall, Marmol, and a cast of thousands of B-/C+ guys), and Oakland (Haren, Harden, Blanton, Street, Gaudin, and Halsey) as well. We had some guys who were average-ish, but we didn’t have that one established top-of-the-rotation killer, which gives all of those other guys a leg up.

Not that any of that stuff about pitchers has anything to do with anything, either.

This isn’t just a matter of us holding differing opinions. You’re making very serious accusations (Huntington is either clueless or a big fraidy-cat) without any support, trying to pass off speculation and conjecture as fact, and I’m saying that it’s wrong to draw conclusions without evidence. You just can’t attack someone’s reputation that way. It’s like walking up to a random person on the street and shouting that they’re a pedophile because they look shifty, and you don’t see a wedding ring on their hand.

If you don’t want me to challenge your assertions, then either provide some demonstrable factual support for your position, or stop throwing around wild, defamatory statements about our GM and his character/motivations. Full stop.

by Vlad on Jul 22, 2008 11:11 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't let the facts confuse you...

It is NH’s responsibility to improve the the team and so far he has failed to do so. I don’t know of any trades he has been offered and rejected because I don’t care. The fact remains that it is his responsibility to create trades if none exist and he has failed miserably to accomplish this. It’s not my job to create trade scenarios for you to judge. It’s simply my belief that it is his responsibility to improve the team and until he does so then he has failed in his mission. Status quo is not an option when you only win 68 games.

In the business world executives are hired to produce and if they fail to do so they are fired. When NH’s annual evaluation is conducted the team’s performance will be judged and if it has not improved then his feet should be held to the fire and he should be made to defend his position. He was not hired to keep the status quo but rather improve the team and so far he has not done so. Your defense of him is admirable but somewhat misguided because as a fan you should want the team to improve. I have no axe to grind with NH. I simply want him to field a better team now, not next year. I want to see steady improvement. I’m not demanding a WS appearance. Just improvement and until he accomplishes that I will continue to question his abilities. He’s been on the job long enough so that we should be seeing some improvement and I cannot see any. Can you?

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 22, 2008 11:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow, I`ve read some amazing things here

the past couple of years, but this takes the cake:

“The fact remains that it is his responsibility to create trades if none exist and he has failed miserably to accomplish this.”

Double Wow.

“When NH’s annual evaluation is conducted the team’s performance will be judged and if it has not improved then his feet should be held to the fire and he should be made to defend his position.”

Truly amazing.

“I simply want him to field a better team now, not next year. “

We do, too, but you seem to be unable to understand that the damage done by poor drafting, poor trades, a lack of any real player development system etc. during Littlefield`s tenure has set this organization back to the extent that if Huntington doesn`t do a remarkable job the next couple years the team could easily be worse, not better. You seem to be incapable of grasping this simple truth, IPF.

” He’s been on the job long enough so that we should be seeing some improvement and I cannot see any. Can you?”

I can with ease. Getting Doumit into the proper position on the field as an everyday player, and getting Paulino on a plane to Indy. Putting McClouth into a starting position and letting him become the player that we are excited to see this season. Picking up Dumatrait. Bautista and Yates may turn out to be good pickups, but we`ll see if we gave up too much for Yates down the road. Signing Minky and acquiring Michaels.

Most people think the Pirates did a good job-if not outstanding-of drafting this year. We need another few weeks to see the final tally, though, before even attempting to pass judgment on it, and this is long before we`ll know how the players will pan out.

How `bout getting the Latin American teams and facilities squared away? How about scouting ALL of the U.S. and seemingly getting serious about other parts of the world, too, like the hemisphere I live in.

Can you see it, IPF?

by patthatt on Jul 22, 2008 11:48 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The time for trades is now!

In the offseason he can, I don’t know, cure cancer, lower gas prices, and achieve peace in the Middle East. But before Spring Training starts because he needs to pay attention to baseball then.

by azibuck on Jul 22, 2008 12:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

IPF

1) How did Huntington choose not to make any “IMPACT” deals? The impact comes after a deal has been consummated and you see what impact it has on the principles involved in the trade.

2) Oh, since Huntington decided he didn`t want any impact trades the team is so bad again, huh? It is this simple?

3) Vlad wrote in a recent post that it is very difficult to predict a team`s fortunes from the performances of its starters the previous year, and gave very clear examples.(Perhaps you missed it, IPF.) The Pirates` starters have been admittedly terrible, but what crystal ball did you expect Huntington to use to predict that things would be so bad the first 100 games of the season?

4) Bay`s solid play so far this year could not have been predicted prior to the season when you wanted the “impact” deals to be made. His trade value was at a low point. If some team overwhelms Huntington in an offer for Bay, I bet he will be traded.

5) Nothing could have been done with Nady prior to him proving the first half of this season that he could stay reasonably healthy and produce. I think a trade of Nady is imminent, so why don`t you just chill out and let`s see what happens the next week or so?

6) I see Vlad`s post below answers part of this as I type slowly. As far as Snell and Gorzo go, we`ll see how they put things back together as the season winds down. How in the world is Huntington responsible for Snell`s and Gorzo`s struggles, and what would the acquisition of a pitching prospect or two do to really alleviate the situation with the starters this year?

7) Blah, blah, blah….and how do you know that Huntington won`t do the same for the Pirates sometime this or the next that will help the team truly be competitive in a couple of years?

8) Yeah, and the reported offers-especially from the Dodgers appeared underwhelming to many, which is probably why Huntington chose not to deal him yet. Anyway, Dejan Kovacevic has pointed out the value of Wilson to the team, and his contract status allows the team to keep him if they exercise his option through 2010. Let`s see if some team like the Dodgers wants Wilson badly enough to really offer some prospects, instead of a lot of suspects.

9) Vlad answered this very well in his post.

“Those are all statements I have made previously which are indisputable.”

Bull**it.

by patthatt on Jul 22, 2008 11:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Pay attention to what I actually said

I didn’t say I’m right about anything (and even allowed I may not be). What I said is that he’s wrong.

by matskralc on Jul 22, 2008 4:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

this trade is completely insiginificant for both teams

that doesn’t mean it’s bad, just pointless.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 11:57 AM EDT   0 recs

Insignificant in terms of who they gave up

Otherwise, I agree (of course) with Charlie. Smart move by the Brewers. They’re serious about winning it this year, and Durham is a good move in that direction considering Weeks’ disappointing season.

by azibuck on Jul 21, 2008 12:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

adding Durham is insignificant, too

Weeks and Durham project pretty much the same offensively and defensively going forward, so Durham’s only value is as a pinch-hitter. and since he’s not all that good of a hitter (league-average-ish) and won’t get to pinch hit all that often, he’s not a significant improvement. MAYBE 1/4 of a win from here on out. if the Brewers wanted to make a serious move, they’d acquire Mark Ellis to play second, who’s 1.5 wins better than Weeks over 40% of a season.

again, pointless, but not bad.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 1:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ray Durham .293 BA .385 OBP
Rickie Weeks .216 BA .326 OBP

Ray Durham is also a switch hitter. They need someone to get on base ahead of Hardy, Braun, Fielder and Hart.

I don’t put much stock in the statistical attempts to guess at how many wins different players will create, but with the significant difference in the numbers so far this season there could be a far greater contribution than a quarter of a win. I’m sure Melvin inquired about Ellis, Grudz and Roberts. I’m sure he’d like Marte as well. Are the Pirates selling? If the price is a ransom, then he has to weigh that. Hell, the team has to be willing to sell at all.

by ol Pete on Jul 21, 2008 2:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This is 2008.

Even projection systems admit to being “extremely accurate” at 70 percent and that’s with them creating their own judgement system. That’s bad.

by ol Pete on Jul 22, 2008 2:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if we all flipped a coin ten times, we'd get a wide variety of results

but all of our coins have the same talent.

do you want to know how these projection systems come up with how many years to include and how much to weight them? based on what actually happens. they give you “the best bet”. if it was more accurate to just include 2008 data, then that’s what they’d do. but it’s not.

read this: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-this-guy-for-real/

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 22, 2008 6:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

How about what's actually happenING?

Why bother projecting when you have actual results? Weeks is having a bad year. Durham a good one. I’m down with modern statistical analysis, it’s just not necessary here, and projecting them is a non-sequitur. You’re overcomplicating it.

I really don’t think you need Marcels or any other system here. I can look at bbref and see Durham is old (i.e., likely to decline, period) and is performing slightly above his career averages. Weeks is young (likely to improve) and is performing somewhat below his career averages. But none of that matters regarding this trade. Weeks is having a bad year, Durham a good one. Milwaukee improved their team, it’s that simple.

by azibuck on Jul 22, 2008 10:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

but the point is that how these guys have performed during the first half the season is not a very good indication of how they'll perform here on out

the Brewers have not acquired Durham’s first half stats and there’s no reason to assume Rickie will repeat his.

THAT’S why you do a projection—to figure out the most likely expectation of how players will perform in the future. you’re expecting them to perform similar to how they have in the first half. from repeated research, that is a poor assumption.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 10:07 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You’re assuming that Durham’s performance will be a mixture of healthy years and when he was injured and during an anomalous year. I wonder if you’ve followed Rickie Weeks career, but he is extremely streaky and his hot streaks haven’t been that long. His career numbers stink. The odds on his performance being a rough average, which is the primary calculation that projection systems do, are poor.

And you really are assuming that the hyperbole that the people selling projection systems give in their sales pitch is true. Seventy percent, which is inflated, is bad. Sadly, there hasn’t been much independent research on a lot of statistical products. I don’t buy Enron’s in house “research” either and that is the equivalent of most research done on attempt’s at guesses.

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 11:10 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

70% is better than what you or anyone else could do "by feel"

go ahead, project what we can expect out of every player in the big leagues. no way you come close to 70%.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 1:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You’re using random variation to talk about athletic performance. Seventy percent is bad, but if you want to claim its good, then you have to admit to your sweeping conclusion is only going to be correct 2 out of 3 times. That would be ignoring the generous self-grade of 70 percent and ignoring flaws in projection systems that are specific to this situation.

You’re also mis-using in year performance evaluations with estimates of next year performance. I think the best bet is to look at what is actually happening.

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 11:00 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

nope

projecting 2009 and the rest of 2008 are basically the same thing, accounting for injuries and things like that.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 1:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Let's go back to your original statement

(argument deleted)

Fine, the projection is what it is, and let’s say it’s accurate. It won’t change this:

Weeks v. RHP 2008 .206/.313/.356
Weeks career v. RHP .240/.338/.393

Durham v. RHP 2008 .316/.395/.444
Durham career v. RHP .277/.354/.432

If you say that “completely insignificant” for the Brewers then I’m sorry to bloat this thread because it’s unambiguously significant. We can move on to arguing degrees of significance, but not the existence of it.

by azibuck on Jul 23, 2008 3:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

now there's an excellent point

will Durham be starting against righties from here on out?

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 7:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We can disagree

I don’t think you’re on the right track trying to attaching wins to a player in this case. MIL is concerned with three distinct small sample sizes. The NLDS, NLCS, and World Series. And if they need to win one game in the final weekend of the season, if Durham can reach 4 times out of 10, and Weeks 3/10, that one time on base could make the difference.

I like that they didn’t just grab Sabathia, brush the dirt from their hands and assume they’re in. This is a low-cost no-stone-unturned move, and a good one. Small, but in a short series, perhaps quite significant.

And veteranosity.

by azibuck on Jul 21, 2008 3:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you're right that at this point, every additional win is extremely important

going from high 80s wins to mid 90s wins is the biggest 5-game change you can make in terms of expecting to make the playoffs.

which is why they need to improve as much as they can. durham is peanuts compared to what they COULD have at 2B

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 7:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not insignificant, just minor.

They’re right in the thick of the race, so if a bench upgrade means even one extra win, it makes sense to pursue it. Durham’s still got some pop, and he runs pretty well for an old guy. He doesn’t have much glove anymore, but it’s not like the guy he’s replacing (Joe Dillon) was too good with the leather, either.

I like the move, especially since they didn’t give up much they’re likely to miss. In a bar fight, you take any edge you can get.

by Vlad on Jul 21, 2008 4:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Pulling the trigger...

what wondrous deals are potentially there that Huntington isn’t pulling that trigger to make happen? Our pitching is disastrous at both the major and minor league levels and we need quality arms in return for any of the Pirates trading pieces. Every time I hear of an outfielder offered for Nady, Marte and/ or Wilson, I keep thinking about McCutchen and Pearce waiting in Indy while how many arms from AAA and AA are being called up and failing miserably. PItching, pitching, pitching, get some GD pitching!

10 days and counting, let’s see who becomes the most desperate and gives up what the PBC wants.

by ElliottBayBucco on Jul 21, 2008 1:11 PM EDT   1 recs

The Trading Deadline

Let’s say that the trading deadline comes and goes and the Pirates have made NO moves. While I think that this is highly unlikely, this will NOT speak well of Coonelly and Huntington.

They might say that they didn’t like what was offered, but how will we ever know the various possible trade scenarios that were presented to them

And if they do make deals, fans might not like the deals that were made but those deals still might work out well.

It’s very simple. Huntington and Coonelly simply have to pull the trigger on some deals to show us what they can do. There are many people urging that the Pirates not “blow it up”. But I say, “Blow what up?”. The only significant difference between this year’s roster and last year’s roster is that we have a better bench this year.

But we aren’t going to get much, if anything at all, for any of these bench players and none of these bench player —none -- will be on the roster of a WINNING future Pirate team.

So let’s start moving some of our tradeable pieces for some pitching prospects. And this includes trading Bay and Nady and opening up the outfield spots for McCutchen, Pearce and others.

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Florida Marlins did not get where they are today —WITH LOW PAYROLLS -- by not taking risks.

When Branch Rickey traded Ralph Kiner, he told Kiner that “we finished last with you, we can finish last without you.”

by thegunner on Jul 21, 2008 3:16 PM EDT   0 recs

“Let’s say that the trading deadline comes and goes and the Pirates have made NO moves. While I think that this is highly unlikely, this will NOT speak well of Coonelly and Huntington.”

It won’t be too terrible. We’ll be more than happy to bank the two draft picks for Marte, and we still have another year to trade Bay/Nady. And even if we can’t, we’ll still get more draft picks when they leave. We aren’t going anywhere any time soon, so I don’t quite get the sense of urgency everyone has. Bonifay/Littlefield destroyed this team, it’s going to take a lot more than flipping a couple OFers and a MR to right this ship. A LOT more.

by matskralc on Jul 21, 2008 4:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

At the deadline, conventional wisdom is that a team will pay a steep price for a specific thing (Brewers-Sabathia). That’s nice, but if you’re not offered something like that, I still think an offseason deal could be better. In the offseason a team might be more inclined to revamp or re-tool on a larger scale. I.e., at the deadline, one or a few teams want Nady. Different teams want Marte. Or Grabow. In the offseason, a team might take Nady AND Grabow (and/or ??, someone like Boleska, since his name is on another fanpost). Nady and Grabow might help some team a lot in 2009, and Boleska is maybe the sweetener that lands a stud and maybe a flyer on a failed prospect. I just don’t think waiting until the offseason is a horrible move if no offers are good.

by azibuck on Jul 21, 2008 4:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I printed out both Matskralc and Azibuck's notes to save.

If we fail to make any meaningful trades by the deadline I expect both of you to not be critical of Neil next year when we continue our slide towards our 17th straight losing season. The decisions he makes now (and you two support) will impact our teams for next season and as such I expect you guys to remain loyal to him when everybody else starts to see the light and begin demanding trades.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 21, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yyyyeah, OK

Make sure you bookmark this thread too, so that if you reference it, people that can actually, you know, read and stuff, will know what we wrote. Which, repeatedly, in this thread alone, is nothing like the way your regurgitate it. (Note to self: Ignore IPF.)

by azibuck on Jul 22, 2008 9:12 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I am kind of leaning towards IPF, here,

in Nady’s case. I have no inside knowledge and am dumb to assume this, but I feel like there are definitely offers on the table that are worth it for moving Nady.

I know he has put up good numbers for a season and a half, but I am convinced that as soon as 2009 his avg will be sub .280, his obp will be sub .340, and his HR total will be sub 25.

Now it is very possible that no one is offering enough to merit giving up a true.323/.377/.526 hitter, but I refuse to believe the X man is that. This has been said a hundred times before, but his value will never be higher, and he has plenty at bats to prove that from here until the offseason.

It is also very possible that I am wrong on Nady, and he can be an above average offensive right fielder for a few years to come. If NH believes that, and is convinced Nady will continue to hit next year and wants to wait until the Bucs get what they believe Nady is worth, then so be it.

Bay and Wilson are proven commodities, so I could wait until the off season there. I don’t know what we could get for Marte, but two draft picks may even be the best option, not just a decent fall back.

When in trade talks with other GMs, I would hope NH would ask for as much as he thinks he can get at first. But if no one will pay up, one, good, ML rotation-projectable, non-soft-tossing-lefty pitching prospect for Nady will make me happy.

by DITO on Jul 21, 2008 5:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The only concrete offer on the table for Nady...

...over the offseason was Nick Hundley, even-up from the Padres.

It’s possible that we have good offers out there for him right now. It’s also possible that we don’t. And it’s pretty presumptuous to criticize Huntington for not making a move that may or may not be there, by a deadline that hasn’t even arrived yet.

by Vlad on Jul 21, 2008 5:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Perfectly understandable,

all I mean to say is that I would really like to see Nady moved before the deadline, and I am inclined to believe (given, for no good reason) that there are deals worth taking out there.

by DITO on Jul 21, 2008 5:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rays haven't really taken risks

Maybe the Young for Garza/Bartlett trade, I guess. They’re where they are today because they drafted high and well for ten years, then handed over the reins to a smart GM who bumped up the payroll a bit.

my blog

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 21, 2008 7:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

“It’s very simple. Huntington and Coonelly simply have to pull the trigger on some deals to show us what they can do.”

No, they don’t. WE don’t sign their paychecks.

Pulling the trigger simply to pull the trigger usually results in a lot of bad shots.

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 23, 2008 11:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly.

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 24, 2008 4:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

While waiting for the stars to align ...

and being 14 games behind (with the ship listing to the starboard side), couldn’t we
get some mileage from guys such as Boomer Wells, Jared Wright, Freddie Garcia,
or, Russ Ortiz … all unemployed/inexpensive … just to give fans, such as me, a sense
of hopefulness?

by Pirate in Ole VA on Jul 21, 2008 4:13 PM EDT   0 recs

We had Jared Wright and

let him go during spring training, Freddy Garcia will be on auction to the highest bidder for the playoffs (Cubs, Yankees, Cardinals, Tigers, etc), Boomer Wells is enjoying his life surfing in SD and who knows what Russ Ortiz in doing. Why pay a ton of bucks that could be spent for scouts, draftees and bonuses on a collection of old vets?

by ElliottBayBucco on Jul 21, 2008 5:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't see any of those working out.

Boomer has indicated for several years now that he’s only willing to play for the Yankees or a West Coast team. Garcia still isn’t healthy enough to sign, though he’s getting close. As such, neither is a real option for us.

Neither Wright nor Ortiz are actively pitching anywhere right now, to the best of my knowledge. I guess it’s possible that one or the other might be decent if we dragged him out of forced retirement, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it. Wright didn’t look so hot in the spring.

by Vlad on Jul 21, 2008 6:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You're probably right, but, ...

in St. Louis, where a COMPLETE starting rotation is currently on the DL, their patched-up
starting staff competes for those starting jobs. In Pittsburgh, they’re given their starting
jobs in December, and, only lose their jobs, temporarily, when injured. No competition! As a
matter of fact, in St. Louis, only Albert Pujols is an automatic to be in the lineup.

by Pirate in Ole VA on Jul 21, 2008 6:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We don't need no stinking pitchers

While I agree that the starting pitching has been disappointing this year, I don’t think that the trade pieces that the Bucs have should be used for pitching. While yes, McCutchen is waiting in the wings and if McLouth is not traded, and maybe Duffy in center, then the outfield is relatively set for a while. I see Pearce going back to 1st. Therefore, what the Bucs need, IMO, are players that can play D and hit consistently at shortstop, 2nd, and 3rd (depending on whether Alvarez can be signed). The pitching will be hit or miss on a given year and getting some players that can hit and play D will also help the pitchers (whoever they are) get better. Over time, pitchers can be signed as free agents or through the draft. This club needs to develop a team that can score on a regular basis when the opportunity arises (I feel the first half for the offense appears to be an anomly and the 2nd half will show the real Offense) and without a solid lineup, this will not happen.

by long4willie on Jul 21, 2008 4:24 PM EDT   0 recs

Trades

I suspect there is a certain amount of hazing of Huntington by other GMs, and if he focuses on what talent is being offered and decides on that basis alone, he’ll be fine. Littlefield had an entirely different agenda, and we are paying for it now. I’d rather he waited until later for a better deal than take a bucket of balls now, even if that means holding on to Marte.

by RichieHebner on Jul 21, 2008 4:34 PM EDT   0 recs

An open question to RichieHebner:

Part of your problem is that you continue to compare NH to Littlefield and that is not going accomplish anything. Sure, Littlefield was an idiot. We all know that. Try comparing NH to successful GMs and see how he measures up. Do you really think that some of the more successful ones would have stood pat with a team that won only 68 games? Billy Beane continues to succeed at Oakland because he out-works everybody else and takes chances. He would never have been as complacement as NH and would have figured out something to do by now.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 21, 2008 4:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Huntington hasn't stood pat.

He’s turned over a bunch of the bottom of the roster. By my (quick and potentially inaccurate) count, there are currently 12 guys on the 40-man roster who weren’t there when he took over less than a year ago. Most were acquired for a negligable price, and while most are