My Top 20 Prospects
Everyone's doing it, from Bucs Dugout readers to Dejan Kovacevic to WTM, so I may as well get in on the action.
1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B: It may seem odd to give the top spot to a guy who hasn't even played in the minor leagues rather than giving it to a player who's about the same age and is already playing pretty well AAA, but when the player is as good as Alvarez is supposed to be, it's a no-brainer.
2. Andrew McCutchen, CF: He's showed excellent strike-zone judgment while hitting against much older pitchers in the International League. He hasn't flashed much power yet, but the foundation is there for him to develop some of it. Hopefully, he'll join the Pirates for good by mid-2009.
3. Jose Tabata, OF: He's younger than Alvarez or McCutchen and is more of a question mark than either one. Tabata has battled injuries for years now, so it's really hard to tell how good he is. Hopefully he'll finish the year well, then report to Spring Training totally healthy.
4. Brad Lincoln, SP: Lincoln hasn't had a great year statistically, but he has showed good stuff and control for a pitcher coming back from a major injury, and he was a legitimate pick at #4 in the draft two years ago. He's already 23, so he'll hopefully have a strong year in 2009.
5. Bryan Morris, SP: All kinds of upside, but like many very young pitchers with good stuff, he needs to improve his control.
6. Neil Walker, 3B: Looked like a very good prospect after a good 2007 season at Altoona, but this year has been a disaster, at least at the plate. He should be a pretty good defensive third baseman, but he needs more time at Class AAA to make better contact. The Pirates' choice of Alvarez in the June draft was something most teams would have done regardless of the talent they already had at 3B, but their acquisition of Andy LaRoche at the trading deadline may suggest that they (rightly) don't consider Walker to be a can't-miss prospect.
7. Jamie Romak, OF: I like this guy much more than many do, but I understand their problems with him--he strikes out all the time, which raises legitimate questions about whether he'll be able to hit at higher levels. Unfortunately, we still don't know as much about Romak as we might because the Pirates kept him at Lynchburg for such a long time. He struck out all the time there, but he also drew walks and hit for a ton of power and had a good year there overall. If you're Romak and you can be very productive at Class A+ by waiting and waiting for pitchers with poor command to throw meatballs, why wouldn't you? Fortunately, the Pirates finally moved him to Class AA, where he'd be challenged by pitchers who know how to throw strikes. Unsurprisingly, he was very bad for a few weeks, but he has hit quite well recently, going 9-for-21 with four homers in his last five games. There are big league power hitters who make it through the minors while striking out constantly. It's rare, but it does happen. The odds are against Romak, but his upside could be quite high if he beats them.
8. Daniel McCutchen, SP: May have more upside than his age and performance suggest, because he was relatively old when he signed. He apparently has a pretty good changeup now and probably has the stuff and repertoire to succeed as a big-league starter.
9. Robbie Grossman, OF: Grossman was a second round talent the Pirates got in the sixth round of this year's draft. He has a broad base of skills, although none are reported to be outstanding; he could be a Nate McLouth-type player if everything goes well. Obviously, he's a million miles from the majors, but he's a hard-working player.
10. Ross Ohlendorf, SP: Ohlendorf has brains and fantastic stuff but, if his recent work at Indianapolis is any indication, he needs to learn to pitch instead of just throwing. He could be a good reliever if he doesn't make it as a starter.
11. Jimmy Barthmaier, SP: It may seem odd to see a free-talent find this high on the list, but Barthmaier isn't old, was once very highly regarded and has quietly had a pretty good year at Altoona, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. He may warrant consideration for a job on the Pirates' staff in the near future.
12. Chase D'Arnaud, SS: 2008 4th round pick is one of the few bright spots for a horrible State College team.
13. Quinton Miller, SP: This is an aggressive ranking for a high school pitcher who hasn't played in the minors yet, but Miller has about a thousand times more upside than any pitcher below him on this list.
14. Jarek Cunningham, 3B: We don't know much about him yet, but he's hit well in every way at Bradenton--average, power, patience--and he's only 18. He bears watching. At this point next year, he could easily be completely off the list, or he could be moving up quickly.
15. Justin Wilson, SP: 2008 5th round lefty has good stuff and could have a career if he improves his control. Obviously, we don't know much about how he'll do as a pro.
16. Jim Negrych, 3B: If Negrych were still a middle infielder, he would be ranked much higher, but so far he's shown very little home run power. He clearly can hit for contact, and he controls the strike zone much better than most Class AA hitters, but it remains to be seen whether he can draw walks against major league pitchers who know how to throw strikes and won't respect his power. He's also having a terrible year on defense, and was recently described by the Altoona Mirror as a "one tool player." He did hit .370 at Lynchburg, though, and that's tough to ignore. If he can fake his way around second and short, he might be able to eke out a career as a bat-first utility player. As the Mirror points out, that would make him a bit like former Pirates farmhand Jeff Keppinger.
17. Dan Moskos, P: Yes, he's terrible and the less said about him, the better, but just 15 months ago he was ranked as a solid first round pick on lots of experts' draft boards. I have no idea what they saw--they certainly haven't seen the Moskos I've watched--but I'll give Moskos the #17 ranking just in case there actually is first round talent hidden in there somewhere.
18. Wesley Freeman, OF: Another bonus baby, Freeman has serious power. Like so many players on this list, he's light years from the majors.
19. Nelson Periera, SP: A Latin American starting pitching prospect? Acquired by Dave Littlefield? Periera is only in the Gulf Coast League now, but if maintains his prospect status, we should nickname him Sasquatch.
20. Shelby Ford, 2B: Ford keeps doing just enough to be considered a real prospect. He's 23 and is having a decent year in Class AA... doing just enough to be moved up a level next year.
Further down the list: Jordy Mercer, Ronald Uviedo, Jesse Chavez, Jeff Sues, Matt Hague, Andury Acevedo, Tony Watson, Brian Friday, Brian Bixler. Other than Moskos, I didn't put any relievers in the top 20. That probably reflects my lack of excitement about minor league relievers more than anything else.
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Bucs trade Jose Bautista to Jays
The Pirates today traded third baseman Jose Bautista to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later.
Bautista, 27, was surprisingly demoted last week to Class AAA Indianapolis after batting .244 with 12 home runs and 44 RBIs for the Pirates this season. He went 6 for 20 with two home runs and eight RBIs for Indianapolis.
He originally was a Rule 5 claim of the Pirates in 2004, then was reacquired the following year through trade.
Toronto’s Scott Rolen has been troubled by a shoulder injury, so it is likely Bautista will step right into the Blue Jays’ lineup.
by richaude on
Aug 21, 2008 4:11 PM EDT
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Just switch the top two spots
although it really doesnt matter, Cutch is the highest rated prospect in the buccos farm. Until Alvarez proves he can hit in professional baseball he cant in my mind be our #1 prospect.
by ihs44024 on
Aug 21, 2008 4:22 PM EDT
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Negrych/Keppinger
They’re two different kinds of poor fielders. Keppinger has decent hands, but relatively little range (kind of like Shelby Ford, but a bit more so). Negrych is just a fumbler, from what I’ve heard.
In the general sense, though, not a bad comparison. I’ve been kind of envisioning Negrych as Josh Bonifay 2.0.
by Vlad on
Aug 21, 2008 4:56 PM EDT
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Moskos
Should be a closer, he excelled at it in college and I think he will show some value in the bullpen down the road. Although thats not what you want to hear about your high first round pick from a year ago.
by Reddrummer9187 on
Aug 21, 2008 5:35 PM EDT
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Really??
His line from his last 10 games:
0-3 10.16 ERA, 28.1 IP, 32 ER, 17BB, 18K
Thats who you want on the mound in the 9th with the game on the line? at any level?
by #1BuccoFan on
Aug 21, 2008 6:54 PM EDT
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Pitching from the Pen
Is way different from starting. Your velocity is higher and you don’t have to focus on facing batters multiple times. Basically its easier. One good example of that is Jim Johnson over at Baltimore.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/James-Johnson.shtml
Last year he allowed almost 10 H/9 in the AAA rotation and he moved up to MLB and into the pen and is now allowing 5.3 H/9.
I still think Moskos has a future in the bullpen and a good reliever has value.
by Reddrummer9187 on
Aug 21, 2008 9:21 PM EDT
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You missed a guy
How could you leave Matt Wieters off your list. The guy is hitting .347, 25HR, 85RBI, 1.041OPS.
Oh wait…..my bad. I forgot.
by #1BuccoFan on
Aug 21, 2008 6:57 PM EDT
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Wieters
Ive been to almost Bowie Baysox home game this year and I can tell anyone that this kid is special. One of the best defensively sound catchers ive seen in a long time. ANd his stat line speaks of his offense,
Way glad we got moskos instead.
by ihs44024 on
Aug 21, 2008 7:04 PM EDT
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As an O's fan
I have to thank your former management for that nice present. I was hoping for Alvarez this year but I am glad to see the Pirates turning things around. I go to college near Pitt and I go to 5 or 6 Bucco’s games a year and they have become my second favorite team. Its amazing how similar these two franchises are; History of success, crappy ownership and management, finally turning things around under new management and might be ready to contend come 2010 (and now a top hitting prospect that was a Boras client). Too bad you all couldn’t trade with Bill Bivasi as well.
by Reddrummer9187 on
Aug 21, 2008 9:32 PM EDT
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Sick of hearing about State College
“12. Chase D’Arnaud, SS: 2008 4th round pick is one of the few bright spots for a horrible State College team.”
I’ve seen many references to the bad State College team this summer, and have to finally pick this time to say that the records of minor league affiliates are meaningless and I question why the Spikes keep getting mentions. Yeah, it’s a funny looking record, but I don’t think it should used as indictment of the farm system.
The GCL Pirates (otherwise known as the juggernaut) have the best record in their league and they rightfully get no attention because it doesn’t mean anything. But if you’re going to bash State College, then praise the GCL Pirates.
by bolton on
Aug 21, 2008 11:28 PM EDT
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The situation in Bradenton really isn’t on the same level of noteworthiness with what’s happened in State College, in my opinion. Bradenton’s record is very good; State College’s is beyond dismal.
You’re right that it isn’t an indictment of the farm system, but I never said it was.
by Charlie on
Aug 22, 2008 2:10 AM EDT
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Jordy Mercer
Isn’t that kinda low for Mercer to be ranked? Thought he was considered a better propect than that; a legit SS prospect with some power potential?
by rissaldar on
Aug 22, 2008 1:50 PM EDT
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