Link Roundup: 9/11/08
-P- Just noticed that Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report now predicts the Pirates will win 67 games. They're remarkably consistent: last year they won 68 games, and the two seasons before that, they won 67.
-P- Freddy Sanchez will miss some time with blurriness in his eye. The blurriness has been an issue for well over a year now, but Sanchez has still been able to see decently with the help of eye drops. Recently, though, the blurriness has gotten worse. It would be nice if the Pirates had some decent second base prospect to give playing time to while this is going on, but they don't.
-P- Tom Gorzelanny may miss the rest of the season with a finger problem.
-P- I didn't comment on this news item yesterday, but it's interesting: the Pirates' agreements with their Class A teams in Lynchburg and Hickory are expiring, and it's possible that Hickory could move to West Virginia (it's just called West Virginia, but the team is in Charleston). As a Brewers affiliate, West Virginia finished first in the northern division of the Sally League this year and in the past few years has featured prospects like Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Angel Salome, Matt LaPorta and Jeremy Jeffress. Also, the Brewers had six first- and second-round picks in last year's draft, many of whom will soon play for their Low-A affiliate. I can't imagine West Virginia would be thrilled to pass that up in order to receive all the guys who played at State College this year, and I don't think Southern West Virginians have much loyalty to the Pirates organization anyway. But I rarely understand the reasons teams change affiliates.
-P- Speaking of which, this article about the Spikes' season is pretty entertaining.
-P- One of Pedro Alvarez's former coaches blames the Pirates for taking advantage of the fact that his family is poor:
Marc Cuseta, Alvarez’s former coach on the Bayside Yankees, a summer league team, said the discrepancy between the bonuses offered to Posey and Alvarez indicated that the Pirates were being unfair.
“He’s obviously in a situation where, to be honest with you, they’re trying to take advantage of a lower socioeconomic kid,” he said. “It’s certainly not because he’s not well represented. He’s represented by the best agent in the history of baseball.”
You know, I'm as sympathetic to these kinds of arguments as just about anybody, but... the Pirates agreed to pay Alvarez six million dollars. The largest bonus paid in that draft was $6.2 million. The difference between the two figures is a lmost negligible.
If the idea is that the Pirates knew that they could get away with paying $6 million instead of, say, $6.5 million because they knew that either amount would change Alvarez's life, well, either amount would change any middle-class American's life, too. I won't deny that the draft system is unfair to players or that I'm surprised Alvarez apparently doesn't feel that signing and suiting up is in his best interest, but really, it's that way for nearly all first-round picks. First-round picks are paid amounts of money that are life-changing for all but the very, very rich.
Surely that money is more life-changing for a disadvantaged kid than a middle-class kid, true, but suggesting that the Pirates took advantage of him by agreeing to pay him $6 million instead of $6.3 million seems absurd to me. When the amount of money is that stratospheric, a few hundred thousand dollars is chump change. If Alvarez had received the top bonus in the draft, my guess is that we wouldn't have this problem, and $6.3 million would have done it.
Anyway, the significance of this is that this coach talks to Alvarez or his father on nearly a daily basis, so this may be as good an indicator as any of what Alvarez actually thinks is going on here.
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Class A affiliate
You’re basically right about Southern West Virginia and the Bucs, Charlie (there’s a line in the middle of the state – north=Pirates, south=Reds) but Charleston is a little different. Lots of people there still remember the Pirates’ AAA Charlies fondly, and an older generation became Pirates fans because of Parker, Stargell, Teke, Reuss, Kison, et al coming through there.
I will say Charleston has an incredible park, just four years old. Plus the famous “Toastman” there is a big Pirates fan, so he’s be even more energized with his heckling of visiting teams.
by TPenaRules on Sep 11, 2008 9:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lynchburg & Alvarez
Mike Emeigh on the Pirates’ listserv said what may be going on with Lynchburg is that the Pirates are looking to one of the two California League teams that are expected to move to the Carolina League after next year. He said it would mean the Pirates signing a 2- or 4-yr agreement with a Cal Lg team, having an affiliate for one year in that league, and then getting the switch to the Carolina Lg. I’m not exactly thrilled with the idea because I get to see Lynchburg pretty often when they play on the road against Frederick and Potomac. Also, the Cal Lg is notorious for being the most extreme hitters’ league in the minors, and for destroying pitchers’ confidence while making it impossible to evaluate hitters. Of course, none of that answers why the Pirates would leave Lynchburg, but it could be the Hillcats’ ownership figures (correctly) that the team will suck the next couple years.
The comments from Alvarez’ former coach strongly suggest that the reason he refused to sign is that he didn’t get as much as Posey, which hardly reflects well on Alvarez. The idea that the Pirates are “taking advantage” of a Scott Boras client who went to a top prep school and Vanderbilt University by offering him six million dollars is one of the stupidest notions I’ve seen in a long time.
by WTM on Sep 11, 2008 9:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, having a team in the Cal League would work for me—if it was any of the Southern ones (Lake Elsinore, Rancho Cucamonga, High Desert, Lancaster, Inland Empire) I could drive up to see them all the time. Unfortunately, you’re right—that league is terrible for all kinds of reasons. It’s caused all kinds of problems for, say, a team like the Diamondbacks, which at various times has at ALL its three highest affiliates in wacko hitting environments.
Thanks for the information.
by Charlie on Sep 11, 2008 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
High Desert?
They may as well just shoot all their pitchers in the head now, to save time.
by Vlad on Sep 11, 2008 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There’s a reason that the Cal Lg is the least sought-after for affiliation, while the Carolina Lg is the most sought-after. It’s surprising the Pirates would want to risk losing a Car Lg spot, which is why I’m speculating that maybe Lynchburg wants them gone. They’ve had terrible teams the last two years, apart from what they’re looking at for the next couple.
The franchises that are expected to move are Bakersfield and High Desert. The latter is a severe HR haven. Power numbers from there mean nothing.
by WTM on Sep 11, 2008 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is like...
…when we got stuck with Calgary as our AAA affiliate back in the ’90s.
by Vlad on Sep 11, 2008 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it happens
I have no idea how likely this is.
Might be fun, though, seeing Calvin Anderson hit 35 HRs and half the starters post ERAs over 20.00.
by WTM on Sep 11, 2008 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The way those guys pitch, 5-hour games could be routine.
by Charlie on Sep 11, 2008 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I'm confused"
“Why is there a foot-deep rut the entire length of the baseline?”
by Vlad on Sep 12, 2008 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Minor League Park Effects
One possible reason why Andy LaRoche is struggling in the majors is that his minor league numbers have been inflated. Albuquerque has the most extreme park effect in the minors (more pronounced even than Lancaster). In Albuquerque hits get goosed by 20, doubles get goosed by 9, and home runs get goosed by 15%. That makes it pretty hard to assess a prospect. Most of the current Pirate’s minor league parks are pretty neutral (and Charleston would be too).
Viva Clemente!
by Roberto on Sep 12, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Those are percentages
20, 9, 15%
Viva Clemente!
by Roberto on Sep 12, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His numbers are boosted...
…but even after you nerf ‘em, they’re still pretty good.
I think it’s more a case of the broken hamate still sapping his power, combined with the need for an adjustment on pitch selection.
by Vlad on Sep 12, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LaRoche never played at Albuquerque
Except as a visitor. He played at Columbus and Jacksonville, which are pitchers’ parks, Vero Beach, which is a slight hitters’ park, and Las Vegas, which is a hitters’ park but doesn’t boost HRs nearly to the degree Albuquerque does.
by WTM on Sep 12, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant to add
Albuquerque hasn’t been a Dodgers’ farm team since 2000.
by WTM on Sep 12, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If A Kid Can Play ...
…don’t worry too much about the ballpark.
The cream always rises to the top.
by thegunner on Sep 12, 2008 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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