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In Praise of Adam Dunn

There isn't much going on in Pirate-land today that I want to write about, but I enjoyed this Jerry Crasnick article about Adam Dunn. Is there a player in baseball as good as Dunn who takes as much heat for his on-field performance? Manny Ramirez, maybe, for his indifferent defense and baserunning mishaps, although those criticisms wouldn't be nearly so loud if they weren't consistent with a larger narrative about his flightiness and attitude issues. Alex Rodriguez, probably. But Dunn ranks right up there, particularly when one considers that he's never had Scott Boras, big-city media, or any off-field incidents, any of which might amplify criticism of his on-field performance.

It's bizarre, really. Dunn doesn't hit for average or play defense, but lots of star players escape criticism despite similar limitations. David Ortiz can't play defense at all; Ichiro doesn't really hit for power; Trevor Hoffman or Francisco Rodriguez can't pitch seven innings in a game. Fans and writers intuitively recognize that the other skills these players possess are strong enough to outweigh the ones they lack. 

Not so for Dunn, even though he's incredibly good at hitting homers and drawing walks. An interesting excerpt:

Statistical bloggers revere him for his on-base ability and power, but the purists wonder whether he could squeeze more from his game by shortening up and making more consistent contact. Sure, an out is an out is an out, but even Dunn realizes that it might benefit him to put a few more balls in play.

"I'm more frustrated than anybody who thinks they're frustrated about me," he said. "I do some things that I just don't understand. How could I possibly strike out that many times? I really don't know.

"Some people have told me, 'Why don't you swing at the first pitch? To me, I'm not doing the team justice if I do that. In certain situations, yeah, I'll swing at the first pitch. But the goal is usually to get the starting pitcher out of there and get into the bullpen. That's what I try to do -- work the count, and when I get a good pitch to hit, don't miss it."

The notion that Dunn might try to make better contact by shortening his swing reminds me of the once-popular argument that Ichiro could hit 20 or 25 homers a year if he only wanted to. Maybe, but at what cost? It's not as if Ichiro keeps the ball in the park just for giggles. 

So what would be the cost if Dunn shortened up? Who knows, but probably fewer homers and many fewer walks. There's no way to know unless you try, I suppose, but why would you try? If you're Jim Colborn, why would you mess with Zach Duke's mechanics after he'd just posted a 1.81 ERA in his rookie season? You'd probably only want to mess with Dunn if you felt what he was already doing was somehow deficient.

It isn't. The usually-excellent Crasnick describes Dunn's time in Arizona as a "mixed bag." If he's referring to the Diamondbacks' performance since Dunn was acquired, then point taken, but that's not what he says. Dunn has a .452 OBP since being traded. There's just no way to post a .452 OBP over several weeks and not help your team. Dunn also ranks first in the majors in walks and second in homers.

I suspect the negative feelings Dunn seems to generate come mostly from aesthetics--strikeouts are ugly outs, and never mind that 18 of the top 40 hitters in baseball by OPS have struck out at least 100 times this season already. It's not especially rational to criticize Dunn for the kinds of outs he makes, but I understand it; we all have viewpoints that come from irrational feelings. 

Personally, I have the opposite perspective, having watched years and years of Pirates baseball and seen hundreds and hundreds of one-pitch groundouts. I'd much rather see a player take a bunch of pitches, work the count and ultimately fail, than to swing at everything and make his outs by making weak contact. So I guess I'm a fan of Three True Outcomes baseball. But I can still acknowledge that, say, Vlad Guerrero is a terrific player. One would think that in Dunn's case, the First Pitch Swinging aesthetes could do the same. 

0 recs  |  Comment 11 comments

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Diamondbacks Acquire Adam Dunn

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Taking a wild swing here ...

but I’m going to guess a lot of the criticisms of Dunn are based on the fact that he’s never played for a winning team, along the lines of, “If he’s so good, how come his teams suck? He must be a loser.” And therefore the press and fans, looking for evidence to prove themselves right, will focus forever on what he can’t do well. We ourselves have poked a lot of holes in Jason Bay over the years — can’t hit in the clutch, watches the third strike go by — for as good a player as he is. If Bay helps the Red Sox win a World Series, all his good qualities will be magnified. Suddenly he’ll be a winner, and his faults forgiven. If Dunn helps the Dbacks lose a pennant they seemed to have locked up, he’s a loser, and all his faults will be magnified.

I was going to say A-Rod is a special case, in that even though the Yankees win lots of games almost all the time, he’s still labeled a loser. But I think the definition of “winner” is far different for Yankees fans than it is for us and Reds fans. For us, “winning” means 82-80. For Yankees fans, “winning” means a world championship, and anything less is “loser.” So the best player on the team — maybe the best player in baseball — is a lightning rod (L-Rod?) for criticism. We didn’t win it all. Must be his fault. Let’s see what he didn’t do well … oh look, here’s a game in June where he struck out with runners on base. He sucks. Loser!

by bucdaddy on Sep 14, 2008 5:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t doubt this is a factor. Playing on winners tends to insulate players from criticism. You combine it with the inherent bias that most mediots have toward “old school” baseball and you have an extremely productive player who’s regarded as a liability. Remember all the glorification of Ozzie Guillen when the Sox won the WS? All the stories about how Ozzie was leading a shift back to old school baseball? If you actually sat down and checked the numbers, that team was more dependent on the longball than nearly any other team in MLB. They won because of Konerko and Dye and in spite of Podsednik (offensively, that is, as his defense did help them a lot), not the other way around. But the truth didn’t fit the narrative.

by WTM on Sep 14, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree-too much negative comments about Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn is a modern day Dave Kingman or Dick Stuart except that he draws more walks. He is who he is. He plays hard every day and does what he can to help his team. He is not a guy I’d want to see up at the plate with men on base.

If he DHed in the AL he would be another Jim Thome/Harold Baines type guy and everyone would praise him.

by zogger on Sep 14, 2008 9:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Kong/Dunn

The two are physically similar, and both hit a lot of home runs, but they really aren’t all that close as players. Kong never did anything other than hit home runs. Dunn, meanwhile, provides a lot of non-HR contributions to a team. He’s got an edge of probably 70 walks a year on Kingman, which is huge. He runs a fair bit and is a decent percentage runner (averaging 9 SB a year at a 75.6% success rate). He hits more doubles than Kingman, and crowds the plate more. He stays healthy and in the lineup extremely well (150+ games in all but one season, and on pace to do it again this year), while Kingman couldn’t stay in the lineup (only five times over 140 games in 14 career seasons).

I’m not trying to jump on you, but I hear that comparison often, and I just really hate it. It plays right into the stereotype that only the big counting stats matter, when in actuality oft-ignored results like walks and doubles and DP rate are a large percent of a player’s value.

by Vlad on Sep 16, 2008 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Part of Crasnick's point

about the “mixed bag” is that his HR rate has gone down precipitously (4 in 89 AB with ARZ, vs 32 in 379 at CIN). That’s pretty significant, and small sample size isn’t a mitigant; they traded for him to hit HR, and he hasn’t done that. He’s slugging .457, which is not transcendent.

None of this is to say it was a dumb idea for ARZ to acquire Dunn, or that the Reds announcers aren’t total buffoons, or that Dunn’s going to hit 1 HR every 23 ABs for the rest of his career. But right now the power’s low, and that’s what they need. Sure, I’d rather he walked than got out, but he needs to hit it hard to max out his value.

All of that said, I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t jump at the opportunity to add him to a team.

by KPatrick on Sep 14, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

KPatrick, Charlie, Zogger...where have you guys been?

I suggested adding Dunn to replace LaRoche in my thread and the entire board all jumped down my throat and told me how bad an idea it would be to acquire him. I showed how we could fund the acquisition of Dunn and actually save some money at the same time. Wilson is as good as gone. LaRoche is in his contract year, so trade these two as well as Sanchez and use the money to pay Dunn and then play Cruz and Bixler in their place. With a short RF porch Dunn could have a career year. Where were you guys when I needed you?

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Sep 14, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn would be a nice add...

…but the opportunity cost isn’t worth it. We’d lose more with Cruz/Bixler in the MIF than we’d gain with Dunn at 1B, and we’d burn a draft pick to sign him, since he’s almost a lock to be a Type A.

Yeah, Cruz has hit OK so far in the majors, but we’re talking about a guy who’s a career .247/.285/.366 hitter in the minors. I pretty much guarantee that he’s not going to be able to keep it up. And we’ve all seen what Bixler can do…

by Vlad on Sep 16, 2008 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and with Cruz/Bixler...

…we’re back to having absolutely no MIF depth in the upper minors. God knows what we’d do if one or the other got hurt. Bixler at short and Shelby Ford at 2B? Gack!

by Vlad on Sep 16, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now he's got 5 in 99 AB.

Based on his career averages in Cincinnati, you’d expect 7 HR in 99 AB. Two fly balls.

Respect the sample size, people!

by Vlad on Sep 16, 2008 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

even ignoring if Dunn could improve by putting the ball in play more

He’s still a really good hitter right now, as is. That’s the point the idiots miss.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 14, 2008 7:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's not a slam dunk.

If he put the ball in play more, he’d draw fewer walks and hit into more DPs, in addition to more hits. Might be better, but might also be worse.

by Vlad on Sep 16, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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