Finding Elmo, er, ah, Kyle Lohse

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Sep 21, 2008 10:39 AM EDT Comment 5 comments

If the Cardinals are astute enough to find a pitcher the quality of Lohse for $4.25 million why can't NH find someone similar? More importantly, why did the three pitchers who just 2 short years ago were considered by some to be one of the finest young starting staffs in the league suddenly become batting practice pitchers? I refuse to believe that all 3 are suffering from injuries lasting several years and so there must be another solution. Whatever the reason you just don't see this happening to teams with pitching coaches like Duncan and so I must begin to question the ability of our management team.

Charlie pointed out that minor league stats are invaluable to projecting a player's abilities and so I must ask what happened to Duke who went from minor league pitcher of the year to a whisker away from being out of baseball? What happened to Snell? He still throws 96 on accasion and doesn't appear to be hurt and so we must question his game plan. Was Gorzo's meltdown all physical or are we on track to see him go the way of Duke and the dinosaur towards extinction? These are all valid questions to which I do not have all the answers but I feel that management needs to address and soon. An entire generation of fans have matured without seeing the team win 82 games.

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Duke is not a whisker from being out of baseball

Much as you might like that to be true. If you’ve got a functional left arm and an ERA under 5 at some point in the last five years, you can pretty much draw NRIs until you get bored or die.

I think Gorz is hurt, and I think Snell is struggling with his approach a bit. And of course, both are probably giving up an extra three quarters of a run a game due to our terrible team defense.

Nobody should be surprised when young pitchers struggle. That’s what they do. That’s virtually their whole purpose in existing. The Yankees came into the year with two top-shelf young pitchers and a third B+ guy, and what happened? Two got hurt, and one struggled with his approach and got kicked back down to AAA.

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2008 11:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lohse

Also, a few points on Lohse:

1) He’d get killed in front of our defense, since he’s a high-contact guy (5.38 K/9 this year, 5.70 K/9 in 2007).

2) His ERA is much lower than his peripherals would lead you to expect, and as such, he’s probably due for some regression in 2009. Which means that the Cardinals were just the recipients of some great luck in the Big Cosmic Lottery, since he happened to have his fluke season in their uniform.

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2008 11:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Lohse seems to be the personification of what it is when a league average pitcher has a lucky year. He’s extremely average. Not that there’s anything wrong with being average. Even if his ERA was 0.75 higher, which is probably around what it should be, he’d still be worth the $4 million. The huge contract differential between Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse is inexplicable. Well, maybe not, as I’m not sure this in the top 5 most inexplicable transactions by the Mariners.

Anyway, a player for the Pirates to maybe take a shot at is Randy Wolf. He’s higher risk/higher reward than a Lohse-type, as he has an injury history, but has had better career numbers. He has a good strikeout rate and PNC Park may be able to suppress his HRs given up to righties, similarly to the way that Petco did for him this year.

by wickethewok on Sep 22, 2008 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vlad

I’m not sure I agree that the Cardinals were “lucky” because Duncan seems to get “lucky” more often than any other pitching coach around. Just look at the success he has had with Lohse, Carpenter (when healthy), Wainright, and to a lesser degree Wellemeyer. Further, he had similar “luck” with Suppan, Marquis, and Weaver during their WS year which leads me to believe that it is more about his abilities than his luck. None of the aforementioned three pitchers who left to FA after the WS had the same success with their next clubs. Weaver got released, Marquis was left off the post-season roster, and Suppan’s ERA this year was over 5.00. I think at some point you have to look at Duncan and give him some of the credit for resurrecting these guy’s careers.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Sep 22, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bunch of random examples, there.

Inapplicable:
Carpenter was already good, just coudn’t stay healthy in Toronto.
Wainwright was already good, and a highly touted prospect when the Cards picked him up in the JD Drew trade.
Suppan was a decent pitcher before, during, and after his time in STL. His 2003 with the Pirates was the best work of his career.
Marquis got jacked up his last year in STL (6.02 ERA)… not what you’d expect if Duncan were pumping him full of magic juice.

Marginal:
Weaver had a 5.18 ERA with the Cards. Better than he’d been doing (or would do after), but hardly epic win.

Good:
Wellemeyer never showed anything like this before.

I’d also add Looper’s successful move to the rotation to the win column, along with maybe Brad Thompson and some good work with relievers like Cal Eldred. On the other hand, he’s had some high-profile failures, like Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes and Mark Mulder, so it’s not like Dave Duncan is some kind of magic bullet. The Cards don’t have some kind of average pitcher factory, just a decent coach, a good-size payroll, and a whole bunch of roster churn.

by Vlad on Sep 22, 2008 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs