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Rays Make Playoffs; Lessons for the Pirates?

There's an article about this at Baseball Prospectus that I recommend you read. The idea is that the Rays' massive improvement this year has to do with an incredible improvement in their run prevention, and that improvement can largely be credited to the changes they made on their defense.

Last year, the Rays won 66 games; this year, they've won 92 with eight games to play. Last year, they allowed 944 runs, this year, it's 632. As the BP article points out, the improvement they're going to make over last year in that category is historic. The acquisition of Matt Garza has something to do with that improvement, but the 2008 Rays are using a lot of the same pitchers they had last year. The big difference is that the 2007 Rays had the worst Defensive Efficiency of any team in BP's database, while the 2008 Rays had the best Defensive Efficiency in baseball.

That's incredible, and what's equally incredible is how little tinkering it took to get it done. Five of the eight principal Rays fielders this year were also among the eight main fielders in 2007.

The Rays dealt shortstop Brendan Harris and right fielder Delmon Young to the Twins for Garza and a far better defensive shortstop, Jason Bartlett. They moved Aki Iwamura from third to second, where he replaced B.J. Upton, Harris and Ty Wigginton, and replaced Iwamura at third with rookie Evan Longoria. Upton moved to center field full time, and Gabe Gross replaced Young in right. That's all--one major trade, one minor trade (with the Brewers for Gross), one promotion, and some position shuffling.

The Brewers have been similar, if less extreme, in that they've made serious gains in run prevention by making some relatively easy moves to improve their defense. They finished 25th in baseball in Defensive Efficiency in 2007 and allowed 776 runs; this year they're sixth and they've allowed 672 with just six games to play. All they did was sign Mike Cameron to a relatively cheap deal, move iron-gloved Ryan Braun from third to the outfield and Bill Hall from the outfield to third.

What both these examples show me is that once you have talent, sculpting it into a real ballclub is relatively easy. Braun had terrible hands at third, but he was a good athlete and a great hitter, so, poof, he became an outfielder. Upton was a great athlete and a good hitter who turned out to be a bad infielder, so the Rays addressed the problem by moving him to the outfield and using their excess of outfield talent to acquire a good defensive shortstop and a top-of-the-rotation starter. Suddenly, they'd fixed their problems--their players were finally in positions that suited them, and their glut of outfielders and attitude problems was gone.

And so when someone says, for the millionth time, that if the Bucs trade Jack Wilson they must get a shortstop or they mustn't get another third baseman or outfielder, don't listen to them. Yes, it's incredibly painful to have to watch Luis Rivas play baseball, but what the Pirates need isn't a shortstop, it's talent. I'd much rather see the Bucs acquire a couple of young arms for Wilson than a marginal shortstop who happens to be closer to the majors. Once the Bucs accumulate a ton of talent the way the Rays did, then they can acquire their Jason Bartlett.

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Charlie

I have agreed with you in several of my previous posts stating that any team whose two highest salaried players are middle infielders with no power and no speed is never going to compete. Adequate replacements for both of these positions are much easier to acquire than power and pitching which is exactly where the Pirates should concentrate their efforts. These should be the final pieces of the puzzle and not the basis upon which teams are built. As management continues to trade marginal veterans for young pitchers with potential I believe we’ll see an improvement in our record. However, management must not only be capable of assessing the potential of young players from other teams but they must also know how to arrange the talent they already have and that includes a understanding the limitations of their personnel. If they can’t see that Duke and Karstens are not MLB pitchers then no amount of defense is going to help. How about hiring someone to assess our pitchers and determine what happened to them in the past few years and why they suddenly have become the worst staff in all of baseball? That would be a good starting point.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Sep 21, 2008 9:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Karstens just seems like a fill-in guy to me, but it’s far from clear to me that Duke is not an MLB pitcher. In fact, he might be the pitcher who benefited the most from a serious defense. He won’t strike anyone out, but he gets tons of groundballs. Put him on a team with a good defense, and suddenly he’d look downright decent.

by Charlie on Sep 21, 2008 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is the kind of thing

that annoyed hell out of me for the way they treated Wiggy. Now Wiggy was a terrible third baseman, and apparently not a very good second baseman either. But it seems never to have occurred to the Pirates to try him at first while they had him, before they went out and traded their closer for LRoche. I couldn’t help but notice while I was at the park today that Wiggy has 22 homers and 59 (I think) RBIs in around 360 at-bats this year, plus he showed he could hit a little in Tampa, too. Not great, but he has certainly proved to be roughly as good a hitter as LaRoche.

And we just let him walk. We saw no value in him whatsoever. We apparently never even considered the possibility of trying him at a less-demanding position.

by bucdaddy on Sep 21, 2008 10:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

OK, I looked it up

OPS+, last three seasons:
ALR: 120 108 130
Wiggy: 130 107 112

by bucdaddy on Sep 21, 2008 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They pulled the plug on him at the wrong time, but… do you remember how Wigginton hit with the Pirates? Would you have wanted him to be the Bucs’ first baseman? He wasn’t even hitting enough to play third.

He could have been a useful and cheap part-time player for the Pirates, but he’s exactly the sort of player I won’t get worked up over. His peak was unexpected and when he was with the Pirates he quite honestly looked like he was playing his way out of the league. Even with his resurgence, I can’t imagine he’d ever have much trade value, simply because of his age and body type. Nor would his 112 OPS in ‘06 have made me any less keen to acquire LaRoche, who at the time looked like he might be a budding star. He wasn’t, but in the ‘06-’07 offseason, that’s how it looked and I can hardly fault Littlefield for seeing things that way.

by Charlie on Sep 21, 2008 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nitpicking

The thing you nailed was the timing. But no way did he look like he was playing his way out of the league. His OPS+ in 2005 was 105. After he was recalled, he OPS’d 1.057 (in a small sample).

Yeah, nothing to get worked up over, except outright release at that time made no sense at all. And he was eventually traded by the Rays. I know how you feel about these minor transactions, but I hate getting nothing when you might have gotten anything.

by azibuck on Sep 22, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, there’s that 105 in 2005, but he barely played, and in 2004 with the Bucs he was just horrible statistically, and he looked even worse.

You’re right that an outright release made little sense. At the time, I was glad to see it, but I think mostly for visceral reasons (Wigginton stunk so badly at the end of 2004 and the beginning of 2005, and the transaction that brought him here was ludicrous on so many levels) and because it was obvious that the Pirates had no idea how to use him. At the time, I was happy to take Wigginton off the team, if only to remove the Pirates’ temptation to start him. But yeah, he could’ve been a very useful part-timer. Losing him was (I still think) nothing to fret over, but that situation could’ve been handled better. The Bautista thing was similar, but at least the Bucs got something for Bautista.

by Charlie on Sep 22, 2008 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I understand your point

He WAS terrible in ’04 after he came from N.Y. (where, BTW, he had an OPS+ of 110 up to that point in the season). But he was better in ’05 and I would also note that in 2005 his competition for playing time was the likes of Darryl Ward and Matt Lawton, who were both considerably older and no more useful. Wiggy was 27 (entering his prime), had shown a little pop from time to time and, as it turns out, could play several positions, though perhaps none of them real well.

And we had no use for a guy like that.

Anyway, now he’s 30, and while his past three years have been pretty good he doesn’t seem to me like the type of player who has many years left, and will spend them in the sort of utility role the Astros have carved out for him.

Still, he’s been a pretty useful guy for three years and the Rays got him for free. I’d rather have had him this year than Minky, but then I’m not impressed by guys who slug .375, no matter how “fiery” they are.

by bucdaddy on Sep 22, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Charlie, can you or anyone look at this more closely?

I don’t subscribe (I know, I know), but this doesn’t pass the smell test with me. The thing that stands out is their (almost completely) different bullpen. Their pen is wildly better this year, and the number that jumps out at me has nothing to do with defense. Last year their top 5 bullpen guys listed in bbref gave up 50 HR. This year, their top 5 guys (all different) have given up only 29.

I’m certain better defense helps, but I also have an unprovable theory. Their young pitchers are better, but not in a way that shows up in K’s or even WHIP, though most of their starters have improved in that regard too, and Garza for Hammel/Howell/Seo is no small change. It’s esoteric, but they may have become smarter, know how to set up hitters better, get hitters to hit their pitch, and simply hit the ball less sharply.

I compare it to Fred Sanchez this year. It’s been noted that his batted ball stats show he’s been (super-incredibly (eyeroll)) unlucky this year. I think his shoulder has almost certain hampered him. So while he still has the athleticism and coordination to put the bat on the ball, he’s probably not hitting it as sharply. No way I can prove this, but it exists just as surely as Santa Claus.

by azibuck on Sep 22, 2008 9:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Charlie's right about the defense.

They made several huge, huge defensive upgrades over the offseason. Check out any sabermetric commentary on the Garza/Young trade, and you’ll see it referenced as such.

Just getting Upton and Harris out of the middle infield was probably 30 runs right there. Both of them were Castillo-level bad in ’07.

by Vlad on Sep 22, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't mean that

I get that the defense was much improved. I just don’t think it could nearly account for 30 wins.

by azibuck on Sep 22, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, cool.

You’re right about the improved pen helping as well. I just thought that you were going with “instead of”, rather than “in addition to”.

by Vlad on Sep 22, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, the ’pen’s better, but even there… the relievers’ peripherals are better, but not enormously so. The biggest difference between the ’07 Rays pen and the ’08 Rays pen is that the batting average against is 80 points lower. The improved peripherals count for a portion of that, but still… 80 points? That goes back to the defense again.

by Charlie on Sep 22, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone? Anyone?

The correct answer is: egg!

by azibuck on Sep 23, 2008 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s only a chicken-egg situation if a better performance from the bullpen could somehow make the defense look good. I see no evidence that that is the case.

by Charlie on Sep 23, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They're better pitchers

All I’m saying is, are the pitchers better, is the defense better, or is it both and/or does one create the other?

by azibuck on Sep 23, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How does better pitching “create” such enormous improvements in defense? How does better pitching cause defensive efficiency to change to such a great degree?

The pitching is undoubtedly better. But the number of pitchers putting up the same peripherals, or slightly worse peripherals, and getting much better ERAs is perfectly clear. The bullpen peripherals are somewhat better than they were last year, which suggests better pitching, but not nearly to the degree that their runs allowed improved.

It’s not as clear in the bullpen because names and roles have changed, but look at the rotation. Look at the peripherals and the ERAs—Sonnanstine and Jackson in particular, but also Kazmir and Shields. It’s completely obvious that they’re getting an enormous bump from improvements in their defense. There’s no chicken-egg scenario. The defense has simply been better. That that’s the main cause of the improvement is totally obvious to me.

by Charlie on Sep 23, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, good grief.

The defense obviously bears much more responsibilty for the turnaround than “the pen”-in-isolation.

But there were also some mid/high-leverage guys with really doggy peripherals from the ’07 pen (Gary Glover, Brian Stokes, Casey Fossum) who got displaced by guys with better defense-independent peripherals (Wheeler, Miller, Howell, Balfour, etc.). The biggest kick was in HR rate – 2008 Balfour, Miller, and Howell combined for fewer HR allowed than any one of 2007 Glover, Stokes, or Fossum, in 2-3x as many innings – and HR rate (while variation-prone) of course has nothing to do with defense.

This seems like an argument over terminology more than substance.

by Vlad on Sep 23, 2008 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Terminology? What terminology?

by Charlie on Sep 23, 2008 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Adjectives...

…regarding the exact size of various improvements, whether something is “enormous” or just really big.

by Vlad on Sep 24, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"The pitching is undoubtedly better."

And the defense is undoubtedly better. But use any metric you want and I doubt you’ll ever convince me improved D is worth 30 wins.

By the end of this year, the team on the whole will have given up probably 40 less HR than last year. They will have given 50 less BB. They will have hit 15 less batters. If I expressed those as percentages, they would be somewhat-to-wildly significant. The fact that they will have struck out about 60 less batters is relatively insignificant.

I never even meant to argue this or be confrontational. I just didn’t think D could account for even half the win improvement. A lot, but not 20+ games.

But what are you saying? All the starters are 24-26yo; do young pitchers not improve? Again, I don’t have numbers on my side for this type of esoteric argument, but pitching is a craft, and if you don’t think setting hitters up and keeping them off balance doesn’t exist, or is a near non-factor, I’ll just have to say you’re wrong, I just can’t prove it statistically.

What I meant with the chicken/egg this was more of a broader argument, not that it had to be one or the other.

by azibuck on Sep 23, 2008 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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