Community Projection Review: Adam LaRoche

by Charlie on Sep 30, 2008 6:19 PM EDT Comment 16 comments

Here are the results of our community projection for Adam LaRoche:

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	ZiPS	ACTUAL
Adam LaRoche	1B	.280/.351/.509	.272/.348/.492	.270/.341/.500

Tommy came the closest, guessing LaRoche would hit .270/.343/.495. Several others were very close.

I guess ZiPS did a little better than the community, but there isn't much to argue about here either way. LaRoche has become a remarkably consistent player year-to-year, which is funny for a player who's so incredibly frustrating. He's become an underrated player: given his above-average defense at his position (one of the few Pirates who can claim that title), he's about an average starting first baseman. Given the number of his peers who have stratospheric salaries (Albert Pujols, Jason Giambi, Carlos Delgado, Todd Helton, Mark Teixeira, Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman, Ryan Howard, Richie Sexson and Derrek Lee all made at least $10 million this year) and the number of relatively young first basemen who've either won MVPs or been serious contenders for them (Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis), an average first baseman for $5 million is a very good deal. It's hard to find someone who hits well enough to play there.

The pattern for LaRoche was the same as last year: absolutely nothing in April (.472 OPS), nothing special in May or June, and then a mad dash to make up for lost time. He seems resigned to the idea that he's going to continue hitting like this; if that's true, one shudders to think of what the beginnings of his seasons will look like in a few years, after he's lost a step.

Taking LaRoche to arbitration for a final time should be a no-brainer--at around $7 million, he's still a good value. He's a free agent after 2009, and given his long swing, lack of speed, and inability to hit before the All-Star break, it would be unwise to offer him a long-term deal. He should be shopped at the deadline--the Pirates will be able to sell him as a great stretch-run upgrade for a contending team, whether he hits in early 2009 or not.

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Comments

We should have 2 projections next year

One for LaRoche’s first half and one for his second half. It would be fun to see all the .650/975 OPS split projections.

by Chad Bahamas on Sep 30, 2008 9:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i like that idea

by johnnycuff on Oct 1, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm still hoping...

they deal him in the off-season. I seem to remember conversation before the trade deadline that the best strategy would be to hope he has his normal excellent 2nd half…and then trade him when teams may not pay as much attention to his splits.

I’d prefer to see Doumit as the everyday 1B, assuming we can find an acceptable replacement behind the plate. I don’t think Doumit will ever be anything better than a marginal major league catcher defensively…and catching will increase his opportunity for injury.

by Nosmo King on Sep 30, 2008 9:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Three things can happen if you hold a player to the trade deadline...

…and two of them are bad.

by Arnold Rothstein on Sep 30, 2008 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could you elaborate?

I’m not sure if everyone here understands these “three things” to be truisms that need no explanation.

Formerly known as Econolodge

by Willton on Oct 1, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good: he can play well; or,
Bad: he can play badly, or he can get injured. Note that he was out for about two weeks around the trade deadline, but any injury in the first half will chip away at his stats and trade value. Ballplayers get hurt.

There’s a couple of other things: First, the LaRoche syndrome includes improvement in May, then a second collapse in June, so that he has a .229 career average against the American League. I’m not sure if American League contenders would want to pay top dollar for him.

Also, am I right that they would have to offer him arbitration a year from now to get compensation if he goes free agent? I’m not sure if they would do that if he goes 25/85 again, and Alvarez is in the wings.

by Arnold Rothstein on Oct 1, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doumit at 1B

I don’t get this. Doumit’s defense is bad but his value to us is that he is a catcher who hits like a first baseman. Putting up with his defense is a small price to pay.

I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.

by Chester J Lampwick on Sep 30, 2008 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And where are we going to find...

…another catcher who hits like Doumit?

I don’t remember him being all that great with the glove at 1B, either.

by Vlad on Oct 1, 2008 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Geeeez

You talk about Robinzon Diaz like he’s not even in the room. wink

by bucdaddy on Oct 1, 2008 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Diaz isn't that bad.

He’d be worth a look if we didn’t have a Doumit on hand. Unfortunately for him, we do.

by Vlad on Oct 1, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the sole reason to move Doumit is that he seems very brittle and misses a lot of time. The argument would be that if he stays behind the plate, he’ll keep getting injured, and his bat won’t be in the lineup at any position. I don’t think it’s critical to do that this year.

We have to keep in mind that if we trade LaRoche, we will get something back. So though we may be weaker at first base, we’ll be stronger somewhere else.

Finally, if someone comes up and says, “We’ll give you three stud prospects for LaRoche, Sanchez, and Wilson,” then we make the deal, even if that means that our depth chart as of December 1 includes Bixler, Cruz and Diaz in the starting lineup. We have to take the value when it’s there.

by Arnold Rothstein on Oct 1, 2008 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Doumit is truly brittle, the position he plays is inconsequential

He will, one way or another, get hurt. Or he won’t. So play him where he provides the most value.

by azibuck on Oct 1, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My problem with that line of thinking...

…is that I don’t see Doumit being appreciably less brittle at first than he is behind the plate. I’ve personally seen him get hurt three times, and in none of the three was he catching. Instead, he was injuring himself running to first, or chasing a fly ball in the outfield, or taking an awkward swing.

Moving Doumit out from behind the plate takes a huge bite out of our offense. It’s a strategy that would make sense for a team like the Rangers with someone like Max Ramirez, since they already have other good-hitting catchers in place in Saltalamacchia and Teagarden, so they aren’t losing anything by making him a DH/1B. But if we do it, we’re getting rid of LaRoche’s offense at first and replacing it with the bat of Diaz or Paulino or whatever random-ass catcher we scare up in FA, and that’s probably a huge drop.

I’m fine with trading LaRoche if the value is there in a deal, but if we do, moving Doumit there should be a last resort (and well behind options like sticking Pearce at first).

by Vlad on Oct 1, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs