2009 projected wins

by MBandi on Jan 13, 2009 1:25 PM EST Comment 6 comments

Hey folks, I’m looking for some input. I estimated the Pirates 2009 win total using a spreadsheet created by Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score and the CHONE projections. I was hoping you could take a look at my estimated playing time for each player and let me know what you think.

Here’s the post describing what I did.

Here’s a direct link to the spreadsheet I used.

Estimated plate appearances and innings pitched are in column C in the spreadsheet. Some players are listed multiple times at different positions to account for fielding value. I appreciate any thoughts you might have on the distribution of playing time.

Let me know if you have any questions about something that I didn’t cover in the post. I hope to do this again with different projection systems, and I am also interested in plugging in the community projections down the road to see what happens. The CHONE projections came out at 76 wins, which seems high.

Thanks for your time.

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It wouldn't surprise me

It looks like CHONE has the Pirates as all regressing pretty far to the mean, which really wouldn’t be THAT surprising. I can’t decide if I would be surprised if LaRoche the Younger does what the projections have him at. The fringey bullpen arms have ERAs that look a little low to me (Ohlendorf, Hansen, and especially Yates), but that’s maybe a difference of 1 WAR.

That would be their best record since 1999. Geez…

by wickethewok on Jan 13, 2009 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

76 wins for the 2009 Buccos does seem overly optimistic

With the team we have now, I’d be very surprised if we win more than 66 games.

by patthatt on Jan 13, 2009 3:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Seems like more of a function...

…of the projections than the PT allotment, though.

I think you’re a little light on PT for Monroe and a little heavy on PT for Pearce (unfortunately), and I also think there’s a decent chance that some of the position-playing vets (LaRoche, Freddy, and Jack) may get moved at the deadline, which would drop their time accordingly.

I have no idea what to expect in terms of pitching. It’s just a real cattle call.

Interesting thought experiment, at least.

by Vlad on Jan 13, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I made some adjustments...

using an updated spreadsheet that Sky posted today. I needed more plate appearances, so I took your advice and bumped up Monroe. I was just about to post when I saw that we had signed him, so I just threw him on the spreadsheet without giving it a great deal of thought. I dropped Pearce’s PA a bit as well, though I’m still hoping we get him at least 300 PA this year. I added some replacement level plate appearances for pinch hitters and filler. I also changed the projected ERA numbers to projected FIP, hoping to get the pitcher’s true talent level.

Since it’s difficult to guess exactly who will get traded as well as who we might get in return, I assumed we would keep the veterans the entire season. I hope to update the spreadsheet(s) during the year using Marcels in-season projections or something, especially if we deal a major piece of the lineup.

After all that, I ended up with 71 wins. I think that’s much more realistic. Sky also added a feature that calculates the probability of winning X number of games. We have an 88% chance of avoiding 100 losses, a 5% chance to reach .500 and a 0.063% chance of winning 91 games.

Thanks for your input.

Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
http://mvn.com/pittsburghlumberco

by MBandi on Jan 14, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And 66 wins might be just wishful thinking

I just hope we continue to build on last year’s draft with another all-out-effort to find amateur talent, and keep everyone on the same page in terms of player development. If we can get a lot of encouraging signs from our minor leaguers in their progress up the ladder to Pittsburgh, and, if some of our young guys at the major league level continue to move forward, I’ll be pretty happy a year from now.

I want the PBC to build a base for sustained success in the next decade.

by patthatt on Jan 13, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs