Community Projection: Jack Wilson
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 23, 2009 8:05 PM EST
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PrintNext up in our Community Projections is Jack Wilson. Guess how he'll do in 2009 in the comments by predicting his 2009 batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order. As a bonus, you can guess the date of Wilson's last game with the Pirates in the 2009 season. (If you think it'll be the last game of the season, you can just write "last game.")
Here are Wilson's career numbers. If you've been lurking here at Bucs Dugout, the Community Projections are a great way to get started commenting.
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Here are the results of the Community Projections so far, including the Freddy Sanchez projection, which is now closed:
| NAME | POS. | COMMUNITY | BONUS | ZiPS |
| Ryan Doumit | C | .289/.346/.477 | 115 games played | .287/.343/.463 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1B | .279/.350/.508 | 10th HR on June 11 | .268/.343/.485 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 2B | .300/.332/.419 | 548 PAs | .285/.324/.398 |
Unfortunately, I'm with ZiPS on this one. Several people guessed that Sanchez would hit .320 or .330, but nobody guessed he would hit .240 or .260, which frankly seems almost as likely, given Sanchez's age, position and injury history.
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It's all downhill for Jack from here...
.261/.307/.363
Last game: 8/9/09 vs. STL
.269/.312/.360
Right around his career averages, and his career averages are awful. He’s gonna be 31, I’m sorely tempted to apply the 10% rose-colored glasses deduction, but that (.243/.281/.324) would just about be replacement level …
Whoa, he’s pretty darn close to replacement level, isn’t he?
Nah,
he’ll be traded July 31st.
.280/.330/.370 to be generous
270/310/370
Jack’s last game with the Pirates will be July 31st…2011. At that time, one of the SS in A ball will be ready…and Jack will get traded to a team in a pennant race for either peanuts or a pitcher.
.268/.310/.358
Stays to the end: October 4.
.242/.294/.326
Last game April 1 v. Boston. The line above is what he’ll hit whether he’s traded or not.
.268/.315/.350
Won’t be traded because nobody’s going to offer much.
.271/.313/.340
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on Jan 24, 2009 12:23 PM EST reply actions
.268/.318/.375
Jack will remain a Pirate. No one else will want him if they have to give up anything of value. That and he will be hurt in the 1st half after getting off too a slow start which will kill his trade valure. He’ll pick it up at the end of the year to get his #s closer to his career averages.
.262/.309/.333
I think he’ll be a Bucco at the end of the year. With his salary, they wont get much of a prospect unless they eat most, if not all of it. He certainly won’t fetch a Jurrjens. I think they’ll buyout his 2010 and try to sign him at a lower price. Sometime in 2010, I’d imagine he would cede his role to one of the current minor leaguers – barring a trade for a near ML ready prospect.
Wilson
.276/.309/.354
Most likely, Jack is gone by the trade dealine.
.265/.305/.360
last game as a bucco: august 29, dealt after the non-wavier deadline
.280/.315/.335
Last game: August 15th, but due to injury not trade.
http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com
Jack's lineup splits from last year were very odd...
source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=wilsoja02&year=2008
batting 2nd, he was a .300 hitter with no power, but batting 8th/9th he was a .250 hitter with no power. (ironically, in 2007 he was a .270 hitter with no power batting 2nd, but a .300 hitter with surprising power from the 8-spot.)
I expect the ‘no power’ part to continue due to reality and a hangover from his thumb injury last fall, but am unsure where he will bat. obviously, he should bat 8th, not 2nd, but it’s possible Russell will bat him 2nd anyway to ‘burnish’ his perceived trade value.
so what does all this mean? I have no idea, but guessing he bats 8th this year, I’ll be optimistic and predict he’ll hit 275/320/340 with no power. Jack’s career in black and gold ends on Aug. 31 with a trade to L.A., for a book of discount coupons to Disneyland.
The Great Jack Wilson
.246/.282/.323 – Jack was a stud in his day, but we held on to him too long. He finishes his career in a Pirate uniform. Sept 12.
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