The (Prospect) Enigmas: Pitchers
by colfanmat14 on Oct 11, 2009 6:53 AM EDT
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My baseball interest is of course rooted in and focused through the lens of the Pittsburgh Pirates. So yes- I understand the homeward predilection involved with the statement, bu it seems to me that Pirates farm system is likely one of the most enigmatic in the game. How so? Well, it's chock-full of enigmas.
Every farm system has its questions, puzzlements, and idiosyncrasies. But with the Pirates, the queries often turn round on themselves, indignantly unanswerable as they drive fans and would-be prognosticators in circles.
And thus, to the point: I present a choice selection of some of the more- you guessed it- enigmatic Bucco prospects. I'd like to hear some opinions, especially those possessed of more knowledge than my own, as to the true nature and baseball fate of those herein named.
Today: the Pitchers
Tim Alderson: His prospect status in the scouting community has fallen off of a cliff. Any real chance the fastball returns to solid-average and the curveball finds its former bite? I fear he could end up as command-specialist middle reliever.
Rudy Owens: Great changeup, solid fastball, but can he continue to post strikeouts at higher levels? Opinions seem to differ greatly on Rudy.
Jeff Locke: "Live arm" gets tagged to him quite a bit, as he comes with the reputation of potentially plus fastball without a whole lot of control. High K rates from last year dipped tremendously with the Buccos, albeit along with an improving ERA. I really have no idea what to make of Jeff Locke at this point.
Zach Von Rosenberg: ZVR is repeatedly described as a "high-ceiling" prospect, with the potential of a true front-end starter. While I still love the 6th round pick, I find such description curious given his lack of a plus pitch. However, he's got loads of projectability (was reportedly regularly touching 93 after he quit shortstop; is a true plus FB out of the question?), a solid changeup, and Rudy Owens-esque command.
Quenton Miller: My pick for breakout pitcher of the year in 2010. Greatly improved as the year went on- check out his monthly splits- and at only 19, young for the level. Fastball and breaking ball both could be plus, yet he seems to get very little love.
Brad Lincoln: Lincoln is a perfect example of the volatile nature of prospecting and scouting service consensus in particular. When drafted, was described as potential #1 with vicious curve and mid-90s FB. Then Tommy John happens, and he disappears from the radar. Fast forward to mid-season 2009: Lincoln is torching AA, his stuff reputedly almost what it was before surgery. Fast-forward again to now: late surge provides bright spot for highly uninspiring AAA performance as he is almost universally described as a potential #3 starter. Can he recover further and move on to an Adam Wainwright-esque career trajectory? Certainly would be nice.
Trent Stevenson: The definition of "projectable" and already throwing 92-94. However, projectability certainly does not mean results. Do any of his other pitches have any potential or polish at all?
Victor Black: Black dials up his fastball all the way to 96-97 and flashes the makings of a good breaking ball. The knock on him is that he's old for his rawness and lack of polish, but he didn't start pitching regularly until much later than most prospects. Surprisingly positive track record of small-school and community college guys making impact as MLB starters provides a small bit of rationale for Victor Black being my #2 pitching breakout candidate for 2010.
Your own thoughts and opinions are most welcome and most encouraged.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Agree with the comments about Miller. I get the impression many people look at his ERA and dismiss him as a failure. I think he did quite well for a teenager in full season ball. Contrast him with Jack McGeary, who was drafted a year earlier, to get an idea.
I was actually just glancing at something from a 2007 draft preview that talked about McGeary the instant before I strolled over here.
Anyway, indeed a good comparison. Considering the advanced polish with which McGeary entered the season, I don’t think he bests Miller by much. I think both Miller and Black were victims of inflated ERAs this past year due to just a couple atrocious, sample-skewing outings.
Any other thoughts?; I especially wanted to hear your opinion on Alderson.
by colfanmat14 on Oct 11, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d take Miller over McGeary easily at this point. McGeary had a terrible time in the SAL, despite the fact that: (1) he had a year of pro experience before he got there, compared to Miller’s two games in the NYPL, (2) he’s a tad older, and (3) he was considered less raw than Miller when drafted.
I think the issue with Alderson is simple: His stuff will bounce back or it won’t.
Tim Alderson- He could be a decent command pitcher in the majors even if his stuff doesn’t come back all the way. The Sanchez trade will be a win if he has any type of sucess.
Rudy Owens- Reminds me of Zach Duke when he was in the minors. I have heard his fastball is a little better than Duke’s though, so his ceiling is likely higher.
Jeff Locke- Could be a mid rotation guy. Pitched well towards the end of the year.
ZVR- Fastball could be a true plus pitch if he adds another mph or two. It has a ton of movement. I think his ceiling is a pitcher like Dan Haren.
Quinton Miller- Like him A LOT. Sort of like Kip Wells when he was coming through the minors for the White Sox. I hope he does better in the majors than Kip did.
Brad Lincoln- Good fastball and curve with developing change. Could be an impact starting pitcher. Can’t see him being a #1 though.
Trent Stevenson- I don’t know much about him. He is tall and very projectable, but it’s hard to see him gaining much velocity. I think his ceiling is likely to be something like Kyle Gibson’s without the arm trouble.
Victor Black- I see him making it as a back of the bullpen guy. Need work, but has some good potential.
I would also add a couple pitchers to your list.
Colton Cain- I think his ceiling is higher than Locke’s because he is younger, but they seem pretty similair to me.
Justin Wilson- If he learns how to control his stuff, he could be a very good mid rotation guy, but it is unlikely he develops his control enough.
Brooks Pounders- If he got in better shape, he could see an increase in velocity and have a chance to be a front end guy. Right now though, he is likely no more than a back of the oration guy with four avergae pitches.
Brett Lorin- Best pitcher we got in the Wilson deal. He is a big righty with pretty good stuff right now. Still projectable enough to add velocity, but right now his ceiling is a mid to back of the rotation starter.
Stevenson is pretty raw at this point.
Breaking ball has some potential, but he doesn’t have command or control of it.
It’s worth noting that Lincoln also projects as a plus bat by pitching standards, potentially giving him some extra value.
I like seeing pitchers used as PH in extra-inning games.
There was a Cubs game a few years back, where they used both Zambrano and Marmol that way, IIRC.
i wonder if we have a release/non-tender thread up somewhere
I expect Bixler to be released (although he could be filler in AAA- not sure how the minor league free agency rules apply to bixler)… but i expect cruz to be retained as of now for his versatility in the field (we already have razor though), maybe if they find a better signee with some potential, cruz will be let go as well…
who else can we expect to see released?
Bixler is more likely...
…to be outrighted off the roster but kept in the organization, assuming he clears waivers. Same for Cruz.
As far as kicking guys off the 40-man, Hansen, Yates, Bautista and Bootcheck are near locks to be gone, and Claggett, Hacker, Sues, Lerud, Diaz, and Pearce probably shouldn’t get too comfortable.
Also, Ascanio's status...
…might come down to the preliminary reports on his recovery and timetable.
I can’t see keeping Cruz around because he’s the exact same player as Argenis Diaz. They seem to have an irrational attachment to Cruz, though.
I pretty much agree with Vlad’s list of guys who are in peril, but I’d add Virgil Vasquez. In just about any other organization, he’d be a lock to be DFA’d, as he’ll surely clear waivers. He’s another guy mgmt. seems to wildly overrate, though.
I’m doing this off the top of my head, but the guys who’ll be locks to be added to the roster are Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris, Gorkys Hernandez (I think he’s eligible for Rule 5), and Ramon Aguero. The hard decisions will be with Shelby Ford and Jim Negrych.
Oooh, Ford and Negrych.
That’s interesting. I’d hate to give up on either of them given of lack of middle IF prospects. But man, what the hell happened to Ford this year. I would think he has to get one more shot. Negrych is a tough call to given his glove. I think I would I put them both on the roster. There still plenty of crap to remove as you and Vlad have pointed out. VV surely will be DFA’s and with the hope of being resigned.
What would you do with Ford and Negrych?
How about Kris Watts?
I’m guessing they won’t roster him, or they wouldn’t have benched him for Fryer, but I think there’s a chance he’ll be picked.
there’s a decent chance. it’s not hard to hide a catcher on an ML roster. what’s the worst he can do, hit like humberto cota?
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