Community Projection Review: Left Field
by Charlie Wilmoth on Oct 16, 2009 7:44 PM EDT
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PrintHere's the community projection review for Nyjer Morgan.
Community: .274/.318/.348
ZiPS: .262/.315/.318
Actual: .307/.369/.388 (including time spent with the Nationals)
Bonus: The community guessed that Morgan would hit leadoff in 43 games for the Pirates; actually he hit leadoff in 47, plus 47 more for the Nationals.
RDV across the sea was the closest guesser, predicting that Morgan would hit .300/.350/.380.
I'm sure the last thing anyone wants is another disquisition on the value of Nyjer Morgan, so let's talk about Lastings Milledge instead.
My general impression is that Pirates fans were pretty happy with Milledge in 2009, and I think that's justified, even though Milledge is at the age where he's supposed to be improving, and yet his overall numbers with the Bucs (.291/.333/.395) were relatively close to his career numbers.
His defense improved. In Washington, he was blasted for taking poor routes in the outfield, and UZR ranked him well below average; in Pittsburgh, that suddenly changed. There might be a temptation to chalk up the sudden statistical improvement to the peculiar dimensions of PNC Park and the peculiar way the Pirates have chosen to position their outfielders, but after watching him for a few months, I can believe that Milledge is at least an average defensive outfielder. He occasionally threw to the wrong fielder or took weird routes, but he showed a great arm, good hands, and hustle that defied his reputation for having a poor attitude.
Milledge also stayed out of trouble in Pittsburgh and quelled some doubts about his character in part by staying in an irrelevant game after smashing into a wall in late September. That may not mean much, and the showboating Milledge who isn't mentally focused in games could come back after the novelty of a new organization wears off. But it's possible he's just growing up.
There's nothing in Milledge 2008 stat line that proves he's going to break out next year. All we know for certain about him right now is that he can hit for average. But he's been a highly touted prospect for a while now, and this year he made improvements in his defense and his attitude. His hitting could be next.
In the abstract, the career path of a major league baseball player looks like the shadow of a check mark--incremental improvement until age 27 or 28, and then a longer, but slower, decline. In practice, though, everyone is different, and rarely are rates of improvement and decline perfectly consistent or gradual. Some players burst on the scene as rookies and then never again play so well; some peak very late. And sometimes, a very talented player like Milledge will stumble around for a few years before hitting his stride. As WTM points out in the comments, the broken finger that caused Milledge to miss time in May could have had an effect on him, too, and may at least partially explain his lack of obvious hitting progress. If Milledge's hand was bothering him at all, this might not have been a likely year for a breakout anyway, since hand injuries can often affect a player's power.
That doesn't mean Milledge is going to break out next year. But it wouldn't shock me if he did. Before this season PECOTA compared him to players like Ellis Burks, Andre Dawson, Nick Markakis, Grady Sizemore and Dwight Evans. That might sound ridiculous, and next year's projection will be a little less rosy, but those names didn't show up because of random chance. Milledge was drafted 12th overall in 2003. He made it to the big leagues shortly after his 21st birthday, and his minor league profile showed he deserved to be there. He hit fairly well in the majors at 22. Players like him don't grow on trees, and the Pirates were lucky to be able to grab him when his value was low. Now they have to hope that he's one of those players who improves in rapid bursts.
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With Milledge, don’t discount the lingering effects of a broken finger. I think a lot would depend on which finger and the severity of the break (like, to what extent did the hand have to be immobilized), but NH said he thought it had an effect and Dejan reported near the end of the season that Milledge told him he was just getting the full strength back. Doesn’t mean Milledge will hit 30 HRs next year, but I don’t think we can put a great deal of weight on what we’ve seen from him so far.
WTM,
if I ask you nicely, will you adopt me?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 16, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Milledge
I think one day that’s going to be looked at as a Van Slyke/Lavalliere/Dunne type heist.
I know we're talking left field here but
let’s give ups to Hanrahan too. He’s another buy low guy who could provide real value. His 2009 1st half was an anomaly in an otherwise promising career.
by chicos_pants on Oct 17, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I wonder what his offseason will look like. Conditioning seems like such an issue for players – not just coming to camp out of shape, but guys bulking up only to learn that it harms their game, guys working on agility training (which I’m a huge fan of, but I have no idea whether there’s good data backing up the concept). Here’s hoping that Lastings focuses on general conditioning, and doesn’t try to bulk up because he thinks he needs to develop power. As Cutch has shown, a player with a good swing and the ability to hit his pitches will get his fair share of homers – better that Lastings make sure that he stays healthy and develops good work habits than bury himself in the weight room.
Not to sound curmudgeonly, but
I liked the old days, when the players worked a real job in the off-season.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 17, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
One tiny thing on Nyjer
Look at the AVG/OBP spreads – Bucs Dugout thought it would be ~40 points, ZiPS projected ~50, and Nyjer made it 62. You can say whatever you want about this season as an outlier and all the rest, but the bottom line was that his obvious flaw (other than lack of HR power) was an inadequate OBP, but he obviously learned better habits at the plate, and that bodes well for him having 3+ more productive years, as opposed to ~2 if he’s just a hacker with fading speed.
IMO that’ll be the #1 thing to follow with him next year.
You’re right. It’s not like he drew a ton of walks, but he drew a respectable number, more than I thought he would.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Oct 17, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Indeed
Assuming his AVG drops at least somewhat (altho, as has been pointed out, neither his AVG nor his BABIP were out of his historic range), it’ll be interesting to see whether he compensates – can he get more patient at the plate, rather than pressing and driving his OBP towards .325?
The thing that's consistently ignored with Nyjer...
…is that through a quirk in the scheduling he didn’t have to face any LHP with Washington, and he’s flailingly helpless against them.
With a more typical distribution of opponents, his Washington numbers will come back to earth somewhat.
You said this before
And I appreciate that you adjusted your claim (you used to suggest that he was platooned, when in fact, as you say, he just happened to miss lefties). Nonetheless, lefties represented almost a quarter of his PAs. 41% is league average, so if he started 162 games, his overalls would almost certainly look worse. But you only need to rest him occasionally – say, twice a month – to get him down to a more manageable ~35%.
Interestingly, his walk rate is much better against LHPs than against RHPs – his OBP against lefties was 108 points above his AVG. For a leadoff/sparkplug kind of guy, that’s a great adjustment. As I say, we’ll see if he can maintain or, better, build on it.
I adjusted it because I was wrong.
That’s what everybody should do when they’re wrong.
On the walk rate, I suspect that he’s drawing more walks because he knows he can’t hit anything lefties throw, so he’s trying to wait for meatballs, and thus drawing more walks. It’s a sensible strategy in his situation, but one that’s prone to exploitation once the lefties of the league realize that they don’t have to worry about laying one down the pipe against him.
If he is standing up there waiting for a meatball
before he’ll swing, it won’t necessarily be a bad thing for him if lefties start throwing him more of them.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 20, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I was serious when I said I appreciate it.
We’ll see how the adjustments and counteradjustments go. I doubt that the league didn’t realize that, as a middling lefty batter, he’s weak against lefty pitchers – it’s just a question of what they do with that information.
I only brought it up...
…because “high walks, low BA, low power” is a warning sign that shows up in two fairly prominent areas of player analysis: Older veterans who are about to collapse or already doing so (like late-career Robin Ventura), and prospects who are going to underperform a linear projection with promotion (like Anderson Machado). In both cases, the drop comes after pitchers realize that those hitters can be successfully challenged without consequences.
Got it. I tried to find his platoon pitches/PA, but BB-R doesn’t have it. I spotted something else interesting, though – he raked leading off the game, but was below-average in every subsequent AB. Does that make any sense?
Could it be...
…that it’s reflecting teams bringing in situational lefties to face him later in the game?
Dunno. File it under “interesting” for now, and keep watching.
No, it starts from PA #2, and is relatively consistent from there – OPS+ of 154, 94, 84, 90, 88 (the 90 is the 4th PA vs. the SP, so presumably it bumps back up due to tiredness/familiarity). He had 168 PAs vs. relievers, and 124 PAs vs. lefties (a chunk of which were starters – at least half, by inference from 62 games).
Also worth noting, his OPS+ when he leads off a non-first inning is also quite good (118) – maybe he benefits from a coaching reminder right before he approaches the plate?
or
at the top of the inning, the bases are empty, meaning an infield grounder is a shot at a single instead of a fielder’s choice or DP.
just throwin’ stuff at the wall here. i don’t know where you got the stats so i can’t see if that OPS+ is particularly BA driven.
I'm assuming it came...
…from his individual player splits page on Baseball-Reference.com.
If not, that site’s got the same info.
right. not a lot i can tell from bbref’s stuff but going to the play logs at fangraphs shows that nyjer had 58 hits while leading off (none on, no outs). of that 58, 15 were infield hits, meaning ~25% of his hits were infield hits, which sort of supports my idea. where it falls apart is that 9 of those 15 hits are bunt hits, so it looks like the reason he’s successful leading off an inning is because he can effectively bunt for a hit, which players are more likely to try with the bases empty.
well part of the reason
can’t discount variance of course.
I hope Lastings Milledge keeps his focus
throughout the offseason and shows up at camp in February in shape and ready to have a very productive 2010.
Nyjer Morgan is not missed.
I'll miss him
I like players who aren’t expected to do much, who then play better than anyone expected even if they are still far from great. I am still glad we have Milledge instead of Morgan though.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 20, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
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