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Jose Ascanio Has Labrum Surgery

Chicago Cubs pitcher Jose Ascanio touches the dirt on the mound during the ninth inning of an interleague baseball game against the Chicago White Sox in Chicago, Saturday, June 27, 2009. The White Sox won 8-7. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

4 months ago: Chicago Cubs pitcher Jose Ascanio touches the dirt on the mound during the ninth inning of an interleague baseball game against the Chicago White Sox in Chicago, Saturday, June 27, 2009. The White Sox won 8-7. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Dr. James Andrews performed labrum surgery on Jose Ascanio this morning, the Post-Gazette reports. Ascanio's injury was initially diagnosed as tendinitis and the Pirates had him throwing side sessions with the hope that he'd return in the last week of the season, but we should have known another shoe was going to drop when the Pirates moved him to the 60-day DL last week. 

Torn labrums are awful injuries for pitchers, and while the prospects of pitchers who undergo labrum surgery have improved in the past five years or so, it's still a very difficult injury to come back from. All the best to Ascanio in his recovery.

The John Grabow / Tom Gorzelanny deal has gone south quickly. Kevin Hart has mostly pitched poorly, Ascanio is now out, and the third player acquired in the trade, minor league infielder Josh Harrison, posted a .650 OPS at Lynchburg after he arrived. Meanwhile, Grabow has been useful for the Cubs, and Gorzelanny has struck out a batter an inning for them. The Pirates essentially gave up on Gorzelanny in Spring Training this year, but the early indications are that doing so might have been premature.

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This doesn’t sound good at all. The article’s 5 years old, but Will Caroll wrote this at the time:

Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle. More likely, he’ll turn into Mike Harkey, Robert Person, or Jim Parque, pitchers who lost stamina and velocity—and a major-league career—when their labrums began to fray.

http://www.slate.com/id/2100895/

by ElDuce on Oct 2, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was looking around and apparently things have improved since then. It’s still a really bad injury, though.

by Charlie on Oct 2, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I was sure using 5 year old articles on a medical topic was probably not going to be the most accurate assessment of the situation. Couldn’t find much out there on any improvements, though.

by ElDuce on Oct 2, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its still terrible news, especially for a pitcher who had such great velocity and movement.

The same injury ended my brother’s career a few years ago and while the surgery has improved its still the single most difficult injury to comeback from.

Here’s to hoping that Ascanio can pull a Brad Lincoln instead of a Bobby Bradley.

by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Oct 3, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh geez

Terrible for the kid. We’re so used to Tommy John and ACL recoveries that I think we’re not so used to career-threatening injuries like this one.

Meanwhile, what a disaster of a trade. A bunch of us said it at the time – the Pirates’ treatment of Gorzo made no sense this year, and their evaluation of him was, obviously, simply wrong. Just another reminder that, if this FO’s talent evaluation is lacking, then we’re in the deepest hole yet. If not for the spectacular success of the Nady trade (one that I always liked), NH would be facing some serious questions. As it is, he’ll get the time he deserves to be judged. But preliminary returns are… mixed.

by JRoth95 on Oct 2, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well

i back NH on the bay trade, because it seemed like the right thing to be doing.. at the time the trade was made, it seemed fine to me. Same with most trades, except perhaps laRoche…

Like you said, handling Gorzo the way they id made no sense, nor did trading him for Hart. An unfortunate injury is beyond everyone’s control, but Hart didn’t look too good before either, and Harrison was probably a depth throw in.

In the few times we saw him, Ascanio showed some wicked stuff, which makes this all the more unfortunate!

by BurgherKing on Oct 2, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We’ve rehashed this trade a million times now, but my issue with it has always been* that its success depended on the Pirates being more correct in their assessments of Dodgers talent and Red Sox talent than those teams were, plus depending on a non-blue chip A pitcher becoming a valuable piece. I understand the buy-low concept, but buying low also entails a good likelihood that whatever you’re buying is, in fact, priced correctly.

  • Aside from it not being absolutely necessary – they still owned 18 months of JBay in which to benefit from his play and shop him. This was not a trade-or-get-nothing move. Which doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it, but it means that you need to get it right. Trading LaRoche, by contrast, was a one-chance deal – you take what you can get.

by JRoth95 on Oct 2, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Teams don't trade Grade-A pitching prospects nowadays.

They just don’t. Teixeira didn’t bring one (Feliz busted out after the deal). Holliday didn’t bring one. Lee didn’t bring one. Halladay didn’t get moved because he couldn’t bring one. If you’re going to wish for a Grade A SP prospect, you might as well wish for a pony for every fan, while you’re at it.

The problem with holding Bay is that he was a commodity of diminishing value. Last offseason, the FA market was glutted with solid corner bats with shaky gloves. Why would you trade top talent for Jason Bay when you could just sign Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn for nothing but $$? And then there was the status of his knee to consider – it could’ve gone at any time, and rendered him completely untradeable.

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Boston's offer for Halladay.

Sure looked pretty attractive to me.

And have you looked at what the Rangers gave up for Teix? Wow.

by Bernie6666 on Oct 2, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Texas got a lot of value...

…but all of the guys they got were B/B+ prospects who made good after the trade, not elite talents at the time of the deal, which is what JRoth was asking for.

I’m skeptical that the alleged Boston offer ever happened.

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree

The Braves have consistently had one of the top minor league systems in baseball.

They gave up their number one, number two and number three prospects. Moreover, Neftali Perez was rated as having the organization’s top fastball.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263052.html

Sorry, that looked like quite the haul at the time. It looks even better today.

As for Halladay, there are different iterations of it. But I have yet to see anyone deny that a serious offer wasn’t made.

In fact, here is what Theo Epstein said on MLB trade rumors, Boston aggressively pursued Roy Halladay at the deadline and that their final offer was “probably the best offer [J.P. Ricciardi] received.”

by Bernie6666 on Oct 2, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They were some of the best in the system...

…which makes them good prospects. It doesn’t make them “A” prospects. By BA’s top 100 for 2007, Salty was #36, Andrus was #65, and Harrison was #90. Exactly what qualifies as an “A” prospect is somewhat subjective, but if there are more than 30 in the league at any given time, that’s a VERY liberal standard. And if being around #30 is enough to qualify as an “A”, then LaRoche was ranked more highly in 2008 (#31) than ANY of the Braves’ prospects were in 2007.

I’m not disputing that it was a good haul. I’m disputing the idea that they weren’t B/B+ prospects bundled together to make up for the lack of a true “A” prospect, who then improved after the deal.

by Vlad on Oct 3, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Vlad

Let’s just respectfully disagree. Are you saying that you wouldn’t take four top-125-rated prospects instead of what the Pirates got?

I’d also argue you miss several key points:

1. Let’s assume LaRoche was still a “top” prospect. But his stock was dropping. Moreover, the Rangers got four top 125 quality prospects. The Pirates one. Bryan Morris was not in the class of the Teix prospects. Teix should have gotten more. But not that much more.

2. Essentially, you already had an idea of what LaRoche was going to project to based on his extensive minor league experience. Again, our point is that it’s better to get a package of three of four young “B” prospects than what the Pirates got. You don’t need “A” prospects for it to be a good deal. Again, my point was that if you scout well, you don’t need “A” prospects. You can get B/B+ ones easier and in greater quantity. Example: Nate McLouth deal. That’s the type of deal I think the Pirates should have pursued for Bay. There was too much emphasis on major-league ready guys, the DL approach.

3. The Pirates return does not match up well with players traded in the past few years. I’d argue that teams got more for Casey Blake and Mark DeRosa than the Pirates did for Bay. And there is no comparison with their ability.

I like LaRoche. I’m just saying that the team should have gotten more for Bay. Also, trading for Moss and Hansen over AA players did not make sense.

by Bernie6666 on Oct 5, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're moving the goalposts.

The question under discussion is whether Texas received any Grade-A talents in the Tex trade, not whether they got lots of good players in the Tex trade, or whether their package was (on the whole) worth more than ours. I would certainly hope for their sake that their package was more valuable, insofar as Tex was both a better hitter and a better fielder than Bay, not to mention younger and healthier.

The question of my first statement is the question under discussion because JRoth in his post advanced the theory that our philosophical methodology in approaching the trade was flawed, in that we were “depending on a non-blue chip A pitcher becoming a valuable piece”. I wasn’t “missing” any of your points – I was ignoring them, insofar as they are a series of irrelevant non sequiturs within the context of this particular discussion. You are advocating an approach that’s entirely 180 degrees from the one that he’s advocating – he wanted us to hold onto Bay unless we got multiple Grade A talents for him, while you would prefer a return that consisted entirely of Byian Morris types (i.e. toolsy, projectable prospects several years from the majors) to the exclusion of Grade A talents. Which is fine, but an entirely separate matter for analysis and discussion.

by Vlad on Oct 5, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s silly to rely on BA rankings as gospel. I’m saying that the Teix trade shows that you can get top prospects for a player like Bay, which I think was JRoth’s point. It was also mine.

I think the difference between an A- and B+ and B ranking for a 20-year-old is largely misguided.

Of course, you start asking for top 10 to 20 ranked players, a Wade Davis type. Who knows whether you will get the person? For example, no one thought Holliday would bring what he did.

Finally, please don’t be so patronizing with “the question under discussion” and “I was ignoring them.”

They make you sound like the might Oz.

by Bernie6666 on Oct 5, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BA rankings are not gospel.

But they ARE a good proxy for scouting consensus on the players under consideration at the time, in that they’re credible, consistent, and freely accessible to check. If you’d like to compare them to the results from a different analyst, here are Sickels’s rankings of Braves prospects from the year of the Tex trade. He graded Andrus as a B+, Saltalamacchia and Harrison as straight Bs, and Feliz as a C+. Here are his rankings of Dodgers prospects from the year of the Bay trade. He had LaRoche as an A-, and Morris not listed due to insufficient information about his recovery from surgery.

So, by that different analyst’s standards, LaRoche was still on a par with (if not slightly better than) any of the individual players in the Tex trade. Which was (at pain of being accused of sounding like the Great and Powerful Oz) the question that we were trying to answer before you busted in and started talking about something else: Where is the threshold above which a prospect will not be traded under any circumstances?

I’m sorry if that question doesn’t interest you, but it’s what we were talking about. If you aren’t interested in that, you should maybe start a separate thread for your topic instead.

by Vlad on Oct 5, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Crap, larger post got eaten.

Must’ve left a tag open.

I’m not relying on BA’s rankings as gospel. I’m using them because you brought them into the conversation in this comment. If you’d like a different analyst’s opinions for comparison, John Sickels had LaRoche ranked as an A- in the year of the Bay trade, and gave Morris a placeholder C as he had not pitched since his surgery at the time of the ranking. In the year of the Tex trade, he had Andrus ranked as a B+, Saltalamacchia and Harrison as straight Bs, and Feliz as a C+. At the time of the Bay trade, LaRoche was at least as well-regarded as any one player in the Tex trade was at the time of that trade. There is a line that modern teams are, in practice, simply unwilling to cross when it comes to trading top-level prospect talents. You can get large numbers of B-level guys, but no real A-listers, no matter what you’re offering.

Texas got very good value for Teixeira. They got five mid-level prospects, and four of them made good. None of which has, at risk of me being called the Great and Powerful Oz again, anything to do with what JRoth and I were talking about (and what you seemed to be talking about in this post): Modern teams’ inability to get elite-level prospects in trade for even the best veteran players. I’m sorry if that topic does not interest you. If you’d like, you can start a different thread somewhere else, and talk about whatever you’d like to talk about there, instead.

by Vlad on Oct 5, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, several factual issues.

1) What leads you to believe that Feliz was a top 125 prospect? Yes, he was justly lauded for his fastball, but he was left entirely out of BA’s Braves top 10 that season. As such, he was at a minimum behind seven other people in his own organization, competing for one of 25 slots. And that wasn’t a particularly strong year for Atlanta’s farm system…

2) Casey Blake brought back more in trade than one would expect because the Indians picked up Blake’s entire salary in order to make the deal happen. Their willingness to do so is what allowed them to put Santana in the deal – without it, they would’ve only gotten Meloan.

3) If you honestly think that Chris Perez and Jess Todd are more valuable than our Bay package was at the time of the deal, then I really don’t know how to respond to that. I’d certainly be interested in seeing you try to make that case…

4) There’s something amusing about an argument that defines LaRoche as a player whose value was falling, based on a drop from #19 to #31 in BA’s rankings, while simultaneously ignoring a drop from #18 to #36 in those same rankings by the highest-ranked player in the Tex package (i.e. Saltalamacchia). Or one that criticizes the Pirates for focusing too much on ML-ready talent instead of lower minors players, while simultaneously lauding the Rangers for the Tex trade, insofar as Saltalamacchia (i.e. the centerpiece of the deal) was already up and playing semi-regularly in the majors when the trade was made.

by Vlad on Oct 5, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, they are factual errors in your mind

1. The BA’s rankings are not gospel. BA will tell you that. Except for the top 25 or so, there is great variance.

Nearly every review I read of Feliz at that time shows he was viewed as a top-tier prospect. He only wasn’t ranked because the Braves are usually real good at developing players. Where would he have been for the Pirates?

2. So what if the Indians picked up $ for Blake? It was a two-month rental for an inferior player. Point: The Pirates should have gotten more than Casey Blake brought.

3. Perez and Todd aren’t dramatically different from the Bay return, I think. I think LaRoche is an average 3b. That means the difference hinges on Morris.

4. You rely way too much on BA rankings. Have you read what scouts said about LaRoche at the time? Have you read about how the Dodgers laughed at the Pirates for taking him.?Have you seen the statistics that led the Dogers to pull the LaRoche experiment? Did you see his first year with the Pirates? Did you see his June swoon?

Three years ago, LaRoche was viewed as untouchable. Obviously, his stock had fallen greatly in the Dodgers’ minds. He was behind Dewitt and they traded for Blake.

He also was approaching the time he would no longer be ranked as a prospect because of age and major league experience.

5. Good luck on the ML ready approach. You and DL will have lots of luck with it. One of the four prospects was a part-time starter in the majors. Unlike LaRoche, he was doing well.

by Bernie6666 on Oct 5, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Replying...

1) Feliz was regarded as a player with a star-level ceiling – which is not the same thing as being a top-tier prospect. At the time of the trade, he was a live arm in rookie ball, with good stuff and marginal command (4+ BB/9) across a little over 50 innings in the American minors. That same profile applies to hundreds of guys every year – they’re lottery tickets. You can’t get attached to them until they’re healthy and productive in AA, at which time they start getting ranked.

2) The Indians picking up salary for Blake is a significant consideration, insofar as they were effectively buying a prospect from the Dodgers for $2-3M by structuring the deal that way, as opposed to simply making a Blake-for-Meloan trade with no money changing hands. Picking up Blake’s money substantially changed the value of the commodity the Dodgers were receiving – how you can think that an irrelevant consideration within context is beyond me.

3) Both Perez and Todd are relief pitchers, and as such, of very limited ceiling. I’m kind of surprised that you’d rather have a reliever and a potential reliever than a starting positon player and a potential starting pitcher, given the disparity in ceiling between the two packages.

4) I’ve read a lot of things about LaRoche. Some reputable (i.e. most scouts liking LaRoche quite a lot), and some less so (i.e. the story about the laughing). The Dodgers were obviously willing to trade him, or they wouldn’t have made the deal. Based on LaRoche’s 2009, they were apparently incorrect in their evaluation of him, particularly when gaguing him against Blake DeWitt (the player who, in their eyes, made LaRoche expendable).

Also, you do know that BA’s rankings for a given team are made with extensive input from the team’s front office, right? That BA had him listed as the Dodgers’ #1 prospect in large part because they Dodgers touted him in their discussions and recommended that they do so?

5) I am not touting a ML-ready approach in this thread, or indeed, any approach at all. I am pointing out that there is a philosophical inconsistency at the heart of your argument, and that the Rangers trade is an illustration of exactly why we were not able to get a prospect better than LaRoche at the front of the Bay trade, even though you appear to be convinced (against all evidence) that it represents something else.

by Vlad on Oct 5, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's a lot of room

Between elite talent and former prospects. Moss and LaRoche were both players that the organizations that had drafted and developed them viewed as much closer to the latter category than to the former. Think Neil Walker. This isn’t to say that NW=ALR; it’s to say that ALR was, at the tme of the trade, a lot like the NW of the Dodgsrs: formerly highly-rated prospect, still in the team’s top ten list, but dropping and being passed.

I mean hey, buying low can work great – look at Milledge. But buying low inherently means that you could be getting crap. And in the Bay and Gorzo trades, it looks like we did. Still time for them to work out, and we’ll see.

by JRoth95 on Oct 3, 2009 8:26 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

No comparison between LaRoche and Walker

LaRoche was a vastly better prospect in 2008 than Neil Walker is now. He was #31 on Baseball America’s 2008 preseason prospect list, ahead of guys like Joey Votto, Geovany Soto and Jair Jurrgens. From the start of the season to the trade, LaRoche had all of 59 at bats for LA that year, and you don’t go from prospect to former prospect based on 59 ABs,

The fact that he hasn’t lived up to expectations is unfortunate, but you always take that risk when you trade for prospects.

by maguro on Oct 3, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Over that offseason...

…LaRoche went from BA’s consensus #19 to their consensus #31. So yes, his stock was down very slightly.

Comparing that miniscule drop to Walker’s plummeting stock is ridiculous. It’s like comparing a banana dropped in a cafeteria with an elephant dropped out of an airplane.

by Vlad on Oct 3, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This would be a lot more convincing

if we hadn’t just seen 9 months of LaRoche playing like a splatted elephant.

Point being that the people who were dropping ALR’s stock were right, and people, like NH, who valued him highly, were wrong. It’s not as if we don’t know “the rest of the story.” We do. And it’s that Andy is a failed prospect. He’s not yet a failed ballplayer, but him turning into a ML-average player will represent a turnaround, not a fulfillment.

BTW, no one would deny that ALR’s recent rankings were better than NW’s – that just means that his stock started dropping later. Walker was taken in the first round, #2 rated in the SAL in 05 (ALR was #9 in ’05), and #43 in the country in ’06; that was his peak. Andy rose higher one year later, then started to drop. I might add that, if the Pirates were a legit ML team, Andy would have been in AAA by the end of last year and started there this year; care to guess what his BA rankings would have been for ’09? He was spared that indignity by the desperation of the Pirates, not by his meager talents.

by JRoth95 on Oct 3, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why all the hate for Andy?

He’s actually had kind of an OK year. Still pining for Joey Bats?

by maguro on Oct 3, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Yinzers have decided that the team’s 3rd or 4th best position player is “crap”, and so it shall be.

It’s like the extreme vitriol for Adam LaRoche when he was here. He was never the worst player on the team, even though fans acted like it. I get that Andy has been slightly below expectations so far, but the hyperbole is too much.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 3, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The opinion of LaRoche at the time of the trade...

…is entirely relevant if we’re trying to assess whether he was regarded as as good a prospect as anyone in the Tex deal at the time it was made. Indeed, that’s pretty much the ONLY relevant criterion when you’re trying to answer that particular question. Since LaRoche was regarded as a better prospect than anyone in the Tex deal, either he was a Grade A prospect, or none of the guys in the Tex deal were. Which is it?

In LaRoche’s first full season as a starter, he ranked 14th among ML 3B in WAR, tied with Chipper Jones and one tenth of one point behind Kevin Kouzmanoff. He’s already an average player. He doesn’t need to turn anything around to get there – he already did it. He’s already there.

LaRoche didn’t start the year at AAA because he’d already destroyed it twice. He had nothing left to learn there. He just needed good health and a clean shot at a job, which he got, and used to establish himself as an average regular (with some remaining upside, given his age).

by Vlad on Oct 3, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I want a pony, dammit.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 2, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why is it so obvious...

…that their evaluation of Gorzelanny was wrong? It’s not like he was exactly blowing the doors off after the deal… or at AAA before it, for that matter.

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The weird part of the Gorzelanny saga is when the Bucs decided that Virgil Vazquez would be better suited for the starting rotation when Karstens played his way out, even when Gorzelanny was doing well in Indianapolis and in a relief stint with the MLB club. Still too early to label Hart a failure, IMO.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 2, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No, I haven’t given up on Hart. But at this point he looks no more likely to succeed than any other AAA pitcher. When he came over he had a sterling (albeit brief) ML record to look to; now he’s got nothing but bad ML results and unexciting AAA results. He may be serviceable, but that seems more like a ceiling than a floor at this point.

by JRoth95 on Oct 2, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The irony in the Grabow trade is that NH’s comments afterward sounded like the Pirates wanted Hart included and had to give up Gorzo to get him. So it sounded like they could have had Ascanio just for Grabow. It’s ironic because the Pirates’ big complaint about Gorzo was that he didn’t throw strikes consistently and was inefficient with his pitches. But Hart has the exact same problem, only much worse. Which leaves me wondering what exactly it was that NH really hated so much about Gorzo.

by WTM on Oct 2, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought the issue in Spring Training was a problem with his mechanics.

by Charlie on Oct 2, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought the issue was that he didn’t bow and scrape to Kerrigan.

That’s a little unfair, but my impression was that it was more about attitude than concrete factors.

by JRoth95 on Oct 2, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He had conditioning issues...

…and a history of being difficult to coach. And his stuff decreased in quality.

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trades

The only way NH is going to succeed is if the Pirates have the best scouts. The early returns are mixed. Better than DL’s crew. But mixed.

But I don’t get the Gorzo had to go attitude. Young lefthanders who show promise need patience. It’s not like Snell where he gave the team no choice. The Pirates could have gotten more, I think. And I felt that way before I saw Hart and Ascanio was injured. It was just a puzzling trade.

As for Bay, it’s not NH’s fault that the Indian trade was nixed by FC. Obviously, Gutierrez would be a solid LF in Pittsburgh and Lee could have been flipped for a tremendous prospect package.

The Pirates just had so few good chips to trade that you can’t miss. And it looks like NH missed badly in the Gorzo trade. I’m not sure the Bay trade is terrible, but I think the team could have done better. LaRoche’s second half was intriguing. Moss could be an okay fourth OF. And Bryan Morris has great stuff. He just needs to grow up.

by Bernie6666 on Oct 2, 2009 7:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

People really need to get some perspective on Gorzo.

We weren’t going to get the value for him that we would’ve gotten if we’d moved him after 2007. His peripherals at AAA were worse than his ERA, and he’d burned through the vast majority of his pre-arb time. It’s not even a given that he’ll end up in the Cubs’ rotation next year – at best, he’s going to be fighting Marshall for the fifth starter’s job.

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Vlad

You are missing the point. It’s not like with LaRoche where there was largely no market (Boston and Atlanta) and he was going to be a free agent.

Gorzo was cheap and had had one great season. He was showing some signs of recovering in AAA.

My perspective is that there was no reason to trade him. See if he could get anywhere near his prior level. If not, then see if he could move into a Grabow role.

I have no clue whether he’ll come back. He looked really good on WGN a few weeks ago. He was terrible today.

But it was a trade at bottom value deal.

None of us are saying he was a stud. Just that the timing of the trade lowered the return.

by Bernie6666 on Oct 2, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it was a bottom value deal.

It’s entirely possible that he’ll keep struggling, and lose the little trade value that he has remaining. People here are acting like a return to his 2007 success is just a matter of time, and it’s not. He has serious flaws in his profile, and a history of being difficult to coach and keep in playing shape will make it hard to fix them.

They didn’t get much for him because right now he’s not worth much, and he’s trending sideways. It’s as simple as that.

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, I disagree

What exactly did the Pirates get back? Hart is, at best, a 5th starter candidate. Ascanio was a mid-level prospect and viewed as a middle reliever. Harrison was a C-level prospect at A ball.

I think this is a situation where you wait to see if he recovers. I don’t think any of us think a return to 2007 level was a matter of time. But it was a reasonable risk to take based on what was being offered.

Moreover, you say that the risk is that he loses “the little trade value that he has remaining.” That sure sounds like selling at a low value.

Finally, I don’t see the serious flaws in his profile or the attitude problems that you do.

He was overworked by his manager. Badly. He struggled the next few years. It happens to a lot of young pitchers and he got a little frustrated.

That doesn’t mean that you trade him for a care package.

by Bernie6666 on Oct 2, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Selling a commodity that's (rightly) carrying a low value...

…isn’t the same thing as “selling low”.

My 401K has some Lehman Brothers stock I’d be glad to sell you for a buck a share, if you’d like. It used to be quite valuable, more than $150 a share, but I’d be willing to “sell low” for five bucks apiece. Just think of the profits you’ll secure after it zooms right back up to its previous price!

by Vlad on Oct 3, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Vlad, again I'll respectfully disagree

I think a comparison of Gorzo with Lehman Brothers stock is really silly. You had a player who had:

1. A solid minor league career.

2. A terrific first year.

3. A pitcher badly overused his first year who then fell off dramatically as other pitchers in his situation had done.

4. A LHP whose velocity was clearly returning. I saw him hit 94 this year.

If you like the Pirates return, you must love the Lastings deal from a National perspective. Thank heavens the Nationals traded him before he lost his remaining value.

I’ll offer the same perspective I did at the time of the deal: It was silly. The Cubs got the best of it.

Let’s see who’s right in three years. Okay?

by Bernie6666 on Oct 5, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’d ask how Milledge and Gorzelanny ARE comparable, since we know all the reasons they aren’t: age, upside, MLB performance, years of club control, tools, etc.

Washington mortgaged a likely key part of their future with the Morgan deal, Pittsburgh traded Tom Gorzelanny…

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 5, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comparison

How old do you think Gorzo is?

How much upside do you think a LHP who excels in the minors and first year has?

How many LHP throw 93, 94 consistently as he was here?

The analogy is that both were bought for pennies on the dollar. When you have an asset like Gorzo that has declined, I’d wait to see what the chances of it returning to value are.

I think the Pirates gave away a #3 SP for nothing.

by Bernie6666 on Oct 5, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He’s 27 with #4 upside, but is probably a #5 (and possibly not even that with the Cubs next year). To compare that with Milledge is a loss of perspective.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 5, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that you are seeng...

…what you want to see w/ Gorzo, not necessarily what actually is. He may be able to rebound, but you haven’t provided evidence to support that contention at this point.

by Vlad on Oct 5, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's fine

I’d argue the same. I’d also make a healthy wager that he has a much better chance to return to being a good starter than Hart ever does.

by Bernie6666 on Oct 5, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tom Gorzelanny

took the loss for the Cubs today.

3IP 7 hits and 6 ER and now has a 5.55 ERA.

I thought Gorzo could’ve been useful to use out of the ‘pen when we knew Grabow was going to get moved, and especially after they dumped Burnett. It’s been painful watching Veal and Dumatrait the past several weeks.

That being said, let’s see how Gorzo does over a full season with the Cubs in 2010.

The loss of Ascanio will hurt, though. I was really thinking he could help the bullpen next season.

by patthatt on Oct 2, 2009 7:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The most likely outcome of the trade is (as Kevin Goldstein put it) garbage in garbage out (GIGO). Whether Hart or Gorzelanny is a useful piece in 2010 is anyone’s guess.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 2, 2009 7:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just sucks because I thought Ascanio was the prize in this deal. I had hope for him out of the bullpen, not so much for Hart before and even less now.

While discussing good trades though, let’s not forget the McClouth deal. How good Gorkys and Locke turn out is still up in the air but I think Morton breaks out next season.

by Mr. E on Oct 2, 2009 7:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

Ascanio was definitely the best player of the three we got in the trade, and losing him is going to hurt.

I wonder whether he holds his spot on the 40-man this offseason, now that he’s had his shoulder repaired.

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's on the 60-day DL

so he is no longer on the 40-man roster. I am not sure how long it will take for him to try to make a comeback but I don’t think they’ll have to make a decision on that very soon.

by WestCoastBuc on Oct 2, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but...

…prior to the Rule 5 draft, all players come off the 60-day DL temporarily. Thus, if they hold him on the roster while he rehabs, it’ll mean booting someone else to make room.

Probably depends on exactly how bad the shoulder is, I guess.

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't realize that

thanks for the clarification. One of my hobbies in life is trying to understand major league roster rules.

by WestCoastBuc on Oct 2, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You gotta get another hobby, amigo.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 2, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

On Bay

How Bay performs is part of how that trade is valued. Right now Bay is performing, even with his slumps, better than any player the Pirates have. He will demand a huge premium this off season, maybe 15 mil a year. Also all the pieces that they got for Bay have been disappointing or had issues such as Morris.

We are now basically moving into year 3 or 2.5 of the deal and we are still “hoping” some of these players pan out? That to me shows it hasn’t turned out to be a good deal. Not blaming anyone it just didn’t work out the way we hoped.

by eyeofhorus777 on Oct 2, 2009 8:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's a part...

…but only a part.

At the time we made the Bay trade, there were three main opportunities to trade him going forward: The deadline where we moved him, the offseason, and the deadline in 2009.

You generally get a fairly minimal return for players moved at the deadline in the year that they’re FA. Look at the difference between what the Braves paid for Tex and what they got back for him the next year (i.e. Casey Kotchman and Steve Marek). Holding Bay until then would’ve virtually guaranteed a poor return. And as I noted earlier, there were lots of comparable players available as FA last offseason, so moving Bay for value then would’ve been difficult.

Thus, in order for us to get better value in a Bay deal than we did, we probably would’ve needed to move Bay for a different group of players at the deadline in which he was traded. YMMV as to whether any of the reported packages were better than the one we took or not…

by Vlad on Oct 2, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"better value"?

Than what? We got crap.

That’s not actually fair, as Morris could still turn out. But Adam and Moss are, afaic, essentially worthless. If we were to trade them right now, we’d be looking at getting B- A-level prospects in return. There’s still a chance of Adam turning it around, but 240 games of everday play say he’s not a ML average 3B, let alone a productive part. Moss has been so crummy he even convinced his longtime defenders on this board that he’s a bum.

Bottom line: they got less for their best player than they got for either of two OFs who couldn’t start for Jim Tracy’s teams. Even if you don’t know who went out the door, if you look at return, the Bay trade looks like the worst deal since Torres.

Until Gorzo, that is.

by JRoth95 on Oct 3, 2009 8:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Three things:

1) Who is “Adam”? I don’t remember an “Adam” in the Bay deal.

2) Thus far, Andy LaRoche has been worth 2.5 WAR in 2009. That gives him more aggregate value than anyone on our roster other than McCutchen, and places him on approximately the same level as Jimmy Rollins (2.6), Andre Ethier (2.6), Chipper Jones (2.5), Paul Konerko (2.5), and Colby Rasmus (2.4). If you see that as “nearly worthless”, you’re an idiot.

3) A player who’s already a B- despite playing in A-ball is actually quite valuable. If we could get one of those for Moss right now, I’d be turning cartwheels in the aisle.

by Vlad on Oct 3, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

All of his value comes from the fact that he was run out there for 600 PAs. His batting is +0.2 and his fielding (meaningless at 1230 innings, as we know) is +3.1. He’s worth 1.3 more wins than Jose Bautista was in 2007. I suppose that’s not quite “worthless,” but I forget – were you a member of the Jose Bautista Fan Club? Because it was always my impression that he wasn’t viewed as an especially valuable player. I must have been mistaken about that.

by JRoth95 on Oct 3, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why is his fielding meaningless?

First, you’re confusing projection-type analysis with performance-type analysis. His 2009 UZR may or may not represent his true level of ability at the position – but whether it does or doesn’t, all the runs that he put on the board with the glove stay on the board. Value is value, regardless of whether it’s repeatable in subsequent seasons or not. And of course, that error bar goes in both directions – there’s also a significant chance that he’s much better with the glove than his 2009 fielding numbers indicate, in terms of true talent level. Not that the error bar for him is all that big, honestly… he’s only three-and-a-half games under 2K career ML innings at 3B.

Bautista was not a particularly strong regular, but 2007 was the best year of his career, and 1.3 wins is not a trivial difference. It’s the same as the 2009 gap between Brandon Inge and Alex Rodriguez, or Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera, just to pick two examples. Would those be significant upgrades for a team to make?

by Vlad on Oct 3, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So...

above average hitter + above average fielder = worthless?

Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
http://mvn.com/pittsburghlumberco

by MBandi on Oct 5, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The trade took place a little over 14 months ago

how are we “basically moving into year 3 or 2.5 of the deal”?

by WestCoastBuc on Oct 2, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is now the third season or part of season we will have with out him coming up. Half of last year, all of this year and now moving into next year.

by eyeofhorus777 on Oct 2, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am not saying any packages were better, this isn’t a debate. The sad fact is the trade we got didn’t pan out the way we wanted, doesn’t matter who we “could” have gotten or that this was the best we could have done.

It seems hard for people to say that the Bay deal didn’t work.

by eyeofhorus777 on Oct 2, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

IF

JBay gets $15M a year, I’ll be a monkey’s uncle.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 2, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Start stocking up on bananas for your nephew.

by thegreatchris on Oct 3, 2009 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Putcher

money onnit?

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 3, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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