And Ohlie shouldn’t be a surprise – he was above his peripherals last year, and horrible in 2008.

The ODDIBE quintiles are offense-only, and by the listed position. So Bixler and Vazquez offense is compared to the average MLB SS, and Milledge to the average LF. At any rate, it’s a terrible offensive projection for Milledge and we just have to hope his health issues that couldn’t be accounted for in the computer model will be alleviated next year.

…and he’d been pitching VERY well at AAA before getting called up.

…is presumably this one.

Funny coincidence, though.

He did look better in terms of fastball velocity but I don’t have the splits on his peripherals. He did have a 4.72 FIP with a tRA over f. His BABIP of .265 helps explain the low ERA. James projections have Ohlie’s FIP improving to around 4.5 I believe but has is ERA increasing to 4.9 as his BABIP gets close to normal (about .320). James also predicts he’ll improve his walks and K’s again so overall he’ll be a better pitcher with a worse ERA.

3840 career minor league PA, with a .307/.414/.507 composite line. 2130 career AAA PA, with a .313/.423/.528 composite line. That’s not too shabby, and it tells you a lot more about his ML abilities than his 61 PA in The Show do.

It’s tough to work your way into a ML job as a 1B, because the low defensive requirements mean that everybody and their mother is fighting with you for that spot. It’s even harder when you spend four years at college and then three more in indy ball trying to get noticed.

…those are good rules to follow in evaluation, but you need to consider context as well. Since Myrow wasn’t signed by a ML club until he was 24, it was pretty much a given that he was going to be old for his leagues – that oldness wasn’t a function of his merit as a prospect. Also, the level repeater thing really only applies when a guy struggles in his first year at a level, and then improves at that level in following seasons (usually when he’s older relative to the competition). Myrow always hit fairly well in his first year at a new level – .802 OPS in his first year at A+, .877 in his first year at AA, and .918 in his first year at AAA. As such, the level repeater effect really doesn’t apply for him.

Once a guy’s in his late 20s or early 30s and playing regularly at AAA, he probably pretty much is what he is, and a linear translation will give you a good guess at his overall value. Myrow looks like a guy who’d be good for about a .750 OPS, which is reasonable for a bench player but not something that’ll get an older player a lot of looks at a position as competitive as first base.

No, ZiPS does not claim to accurately project playing time.

…hitting at the heart of Indy’s lineup, where he drove in 54 runs in only 273 AB. Since it draws assumptions for future usage from past usage, it sees him hitting in the middle of our lineup, and having a similar number of opportunities, when it forecasts his 2010 RBI.

Came up through SD’s system. Memorably, he once suffered a season-ending leg injury in a team celebration at home plate, after hitting a walk-off shot.

Doesn’t run much, doesn’t field much, but he’s got good power, and he’d probably be respectable on a ML bench.

“Taggert” is actually one of his middle names. The full name is “Robert Tanios Taggert Bozied”, which might be even better.

…(i.e. the apportioning of playing time and team context-dependent stats like RBI and saves) have very little to do with a player’s actual skills or value, I’m not sure I see the problem here.