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Pirates would trade Doumit!


I saw this on MLBTradeRumors.com last night.  Apparently this comes for Rosenthal on his blog and he hears that a number of teams approached the Bucs about Doumit during the GM meetings.  Reportedly, NH would move Doumit for the right package.


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/pirates-could-trade-doumit.html

Star-divide

Now the fact that the Pirates would trade Doumit for the "right package" isn't exactly newsworthy because I believe they would trade anyone for the "right package."  The story here, IMO, is the number of teams supposedly inquiring about Doumit.  The real question I have is, are teams thinking they can get a buy-low deal on 09' Doumit?  Doumit has always been injury prone and that is no secret so how much does last year hurt Doumit's trade value?  What kind of return could we expect to receive?

FWIW, the article mentions the Giants, Rays and Mariners as teams that could be interested.  That was based on speculation though and not rumors.

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Why the Giants?

Has Sabean already given up on Buster Posey after 17 unimpressive big league ABs? I could understand why the Mariners or Rays might want Doumit, but not the Giants.

by maguro on Nov 13, 2009 12:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Supposedly versatility....

You know because he could play 1B, RF or catch…though he doesn’t do any well. He would add power to their lineup and they definitely need it. He wouldn’t block Posey at all. That’t what Rosenthall reports anyway.

by Slick1 on Nov 13, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Perception in SF is that Posey’s not entirely ready yet. They want to ease him in and have him split time with a vet in his first season. Sabean is supposedly very interested in Pudge Rodriguez as a mentor to Posey.

http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates

by Nate Rose on Nov 14, 2009 1:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've been calling for a Doumit trade since the McLouth trade

The only question is when we get max value for him – there’s no rush as such. But he’s a dumb part to hold on to, as he will never contribute to a playoff team in Pittsburgh.

by JRoth95 on Nov 13, 2009 1:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What makes you say that Doumit won’t contribute to a playoff team in Pittsburgh? Is it that you think Doumit is awful or that you don’t think the Pirates have a shot of making the playoffs before 2014?

by epoc on Nov 13, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was hasty

Specifically, I was underestimating the club option. There’s a decent chance it doesn’t get used – the buyout is cheap ($0.5M) and a 2 year commitment (that’s how I’m reading it – the option is for ‘12 and ’13) to an injury-prone, 31-y.o. catcher is a lot – but certainly picking it up is certainly a non-zero chance. If Doumit can stay healthier and hit at a high level for 130+ games, then he’s a bargain at $15.5M for 2 years. But I think it’s just as likely that he’s gone after ’11.

by JRoth95 on Nov 13, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Pirates hold a 2013 option for Doumit...

after that he can be a FA. They have an option for 2012 as well. Doumit may very well be gone after the 2011 season.

by Slick1 on Nov 13, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How come there’s only one buyout listed? That’s part of why I was reading it as a two year option, not two options.

Anyway.

by JRoth95 on Nov 13, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It is a 2 year option according to how Dejan first reported the deal.


The salaries for the club option years are $7.25 million in 2012, $8.25 million the following season. The option, which covers both years, must be exercised or rejected by late 2011. A buyout would cost $500,000.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08358/937043-63.stm#ixzz0WmpaGxHQ

by ElDuce on Nov 13, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're right...

two year option. I just assumed it was two. My bad.

by Slick1 on Nov 13, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK, thanks

So you have to weigh the Pirates’ chances of judging him, at age 31 and with Sanchez coming on, worth a 2 year commitment. The dollars aren’t huge, but that actually just makes him all the more valuable as a trade piece – imagine a team whose top catching prospect has just gone bust, so their system is empty – Doumit provides up to 4 years of a great bat (and passable glove) at C, as long as they’re willing to take on the injury risk.

by JRoth95 on Nov 16, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

are teams thinking they can get a buy-low deal on 09’ Doumit?

I think this is exactly right. But you know, someone might offer a package that NH thinks os more valuable than the offerer does. And it helps that there’s a fair amount of interest, as it gives NH a bit of leverage – if he thinks that the offering team has a really desirable player just one notch up from their first offer, he has lots of competition to point to.

That said, I’ll be pretty surprised if he’s moved this winter; it’s really hard to believe anyone loves Doumit enough to offer what he’d be worth after a healthy April-June (no guarantee of that, of course, but NH has to consider that Doumit’s baseline value).

by JRoth95 on Nov 13, 2009 1:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Didn't you...

Also bash management for not “fielding” a MLB team after wanting people to get traded? I remember some sort of weird argument you were trying to make last season.

by Slizeezyc on Nov 13, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Two separate arguments

I was of the opinion that the post-Nady team was in a position to be decent, even competitive, in 2009 (I said this before the Cards ran away with the division, an outcome that still surprises me a bit), and that the subsequent trades were thus overkill. That was one thing.

The other thing was that the post-July* team was truly, deeply, desperately awful and sub-MLB. WTM and Charlie and others kept insisting, for weeks and weeks, that it was actually a team about as bad as every other team in the Streak. They finally gave up on the argument after the, what, 23 out of 25 games lost stretch. I didn’t mind NH going all-in (or, I minded in the sense of hating to follow an awful team, but I was OK with dispersing the remaining talent on a .425 team), but it bugged the hell out of me that people here were in denial about it. So I railed against every effort to minimize the badness of the late-2009 Pirates, but I didn’t, and don’t, think that NH was wrong to clear house completely once he decided not to try to win in ’09 or ’10.

  • and it was actually the post-Nyjer team – both actual and ExW from July 1 on were considerably below .400

by JRoth95 on Nov 13, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I mostly remember you saying...

…that the team was a lock to lose 100. Which it didn’t.

I don’t think anyone was “in denial” about anything. Except maybe the Chicken Littles.

by Vlad on Nov 14, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol

it came pretty damn close to 100 L’s though…

by BlindSquirrel on Nov 15, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

They only played 161 games

I might as well say, “Vlad said they’d do better than .388.” They played below a 63 win pace. Rain in Chicago kept them from 100 losses.

Meanwhile

I don’t think anyone was "in denial" about anything.
is just bullshit. Charlie saying that the roster that played .313 ball for more than half a season was “less embarrassing” than teams playing .400 ball and better? WTM citing a team with an ExW rate of .457 as “obviously” worse than this team with its ExW rate of .320? Pure turd-polishing.

by JRoth95 on Nov 16, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

They WERE less embarrassing.

Nobody jumped the team and flew AWOL to a foreign country. Nobody got arrested for slugging a sausage. And Vogelsong didn’t pitch even once. We just, y’know, lost some games.

There were people throwing around terms like “historically awful” and “110+ losses”… just a total loss of perspective, derived from one cold streak.

by Vlad on Nov 16, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The team that played from July 1 onward...

WAS historically awful…and mostly healthy. That team went 26-58. A .313 pace…which if taken through 162 games would give a record of 50-112. The team…after the trade deadline on July 31st played at a .305 pace…or 49-113 pace.

Since 1891…there has been ONE Pirate team that played an entire season at or below a .313 pace. The 1952 Pirates went 42-112.

So…yes…the team that played from July 1st onward was historically awful…and played at a 110+ plus loss rate. 84 games is not one cold streak. Any comments I made about historically awful were made after the roster was blown up. And yes…I supported the roster blowup…as it was needed for the future.

Please remind me what this team has added from the group that played the second half of the season at a 110 loss pace?? Akinori Iwamura is going to help this team be 10 games better?? More likely a fairly even swap for Freddy. We basically replaced Nate with Milledge…Morgan with Cutch…Wilson with Cedeno and LaRoche/Jones is likely a fairly even trade in the future. That’s not a big step up in talent…and no one is coming from the minors in the first few months of 2010.

We don’t know what…if any…free agents will be signed in the next 3 months. However…if the Pirates go into 2010 with their CURRENT 40 man roster…100 losses is almost guaranteed in my mind…and 110 wouldn’t surprise me. Yes…it’s EXTREMELY difficult for a team to lose 110 games…but 1 or 2 starting pitchers coming up lame would pretty much assure it.

by Thunder on Nov 20, 2009 3:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're making a fundamental error of logic:

I.e. assuming that the past performances of players on the 2009 were not only indicative of their level of ability in 2009 (questionable) but also indicative of their likely future performances (extremely dubious).

Since you picked July+ as your sample, let’s work with that. A .313 pace is pretty bad… but it’s also significantly worse than the team’s run differential would suggest. Starting at July 1, the team scored 299 runs and allowed 438, which would typically give you a 54-108 team with a w% of .333. A bad team, to be sure, but hardly unprecedented: It’d only be the seventh-worst seasonal w% in the history of the franchise. And even that overstates the level of the problem somewhat. It’s tremendously hard to sustain that level of suckitude for a full season, simply due to regression to the mean Washington played below .300 ball in the first half last year, looking horrible while doing it… and they ended the season above .350, without making any substantial changes.

As for the “one or two starting pitchers coming up lame”, we were effectively operating under that restriction for a large part of your 2009 sample. Guys like Ohlendorf were shut down early due to innings caps, and replaced by guys like VV. As such, this already came to pass, and is a large part of the reason why the record was as bad as it was.

by Vlad on Nov 20, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed…to put it in simple terms that morons similar to I can understand, you REALLLY have to suck somethin awful to lose 110 games nowadays. I don’t think these Bucs have it in them.

by NastyNate82 on Nov 21, 2009 1:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A couple thoughts

Doumit to the Giants makes no sense…..They have Buster Posey and they have said they are going to try and resign Ryan Garko. IF they do trade Doumit to the Giants, the haul wouldn’t be sufficient because the GIants traded their “touchable” good prospects at the deadline last year. This reaks of a Littlefield type trade and I hope they stay away from it.

Doumit to the Rays makes sense because they need a power bat that can catch especially since Dioner (sp) Navarro was not very good this year. If they trade him here I expect a haul of something like Reid Brignac and Justin Ruggiano for Doumit…..which is not a good haul but might be enough to add depth to the middle infield…however with the trade of Iwamura the Rays may not want to gamble the future of their middle infield away so I dont really think the Rays are a possibl suitor.

The one place I could see us making a trade with is the Toronto Blue Jays. Barajas and Barrett are leaving for free agency and the word is that neither Phillips or Arencibia are ready to take over as the starter. I could see us getting a starter like Jesse Litsch or Brad Mills for Doumit. Add Kyle Phillips in the deal and NH would do this in a heart beat.

One place I think is a wild card for Doumit to go is the New York Mets. They need a hitting catcher bad and they need power in their lineup bad. I could see us getting Eddie Kunz or Bobby Parnell in a deal for Doumit. This is ideal for me because both of these guys are going to be good bullpen arms and the Bucs need bullpen arms.

by chrisiu10 on Nov 13, 2009 2:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I would hope...

that we wouldn’t trade a catcher with good power for bullpen arms. That would seem to contradict what NH has been doing. I do think the Mets could use Doumit thought.

by Slick1 on Nov 13, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My take on Doumit being dealt

Doumit to the Giants makes more sense then you think. They’re biggest need this offseason is a power bat, preferably from the left side. Posey isn’t exactly tearing it up in the Arizona Fall League, in fact Tabata has shown much better then Posey. I figure on Posey starting the year at AAA and if Doumit was acquired he would be the Giants catcher to start the season. Now if Posey starts the year as catcher you can still mix in Doumit at first and right. Problem is, I dont see the Giants having what it takes to appeal to the Pirates as trade partners for Doumit.

Rays could definitly use Doumit but unlike the Giants they do have some trade chips. I like Brignac and with Bartlett and Zobrist up the middle, there is really no room for him in Tampa. If the rays offered him in a deal I would definitly consider.

Doumit to the Jays is a good thought although is Litsch going to be 100% healthy? If he is and they throw in Phillips I’m still not sure it would be enough as NH for some reason seems to be comfortable with the rotation going into next year.

As for the Mets, Parnell and Kunz are two nice pitching prospects but I believe Doumit is worth a little more then that. Other then those two the Mets practically have nothing else to offer.

When all said and done its no secret that Doumit and Capps can be had for the right price. My guess is atleast one goes, probably Doumit. Capps trade value has dropped dramatically and it’d be stupid to trade him now especially with our lack of bull-pen arms.

On another note, I wouldn’t be suprised if you hear Duke or Maholm’s name come up in trade talks in the coming months.

by Bux123 on Nov 13, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I mostly agree with this, except SF- I cant see Doumit going to SF… it would quite a bit, and they could probably offer someone like Jonathan Sanchez as the lead in the package, n i m not sure we take that…

I can see Doumit go to the Jays for a package centred around Litsch, if NH has good offers for Duke/Maholm, and I think the one he wants to move is Duke. Duke had a great year and is due an arbitration raise as well as regression- I wouldn’t be surprised to see Duke return to average pitching next year, and I think Nh would be willing to move him for a decent package- probably look for a 4-player package, including a mid-rotation ceiling AA type pitcher, a MIF close to ML ready, a mid-round high ceiling type of rookie player, and a Brett Lorin type pitcher..(the MIF would be the key, unless he could get one from the Doumit deal)… jus speculating!

by BurgherKing on Nov 13, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"this reeks of a Littlefield type trade..."

Yes, but Sabean is also a lot like Littlefield…ie, he’ll overpay for his man.

http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates

by Nate Rose on Nov 14, 2009 1:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’d be interested in Sean Rodriguez from the Rays, too. The Rays didn’t want to trade Brignac in the proposed Bay deal, if I remember correctly, but maybe they’d let go of Rodriguez. I’d let Doumit go for Navarro and Rodriguez. Not sure the Rays would want to give up that much, though.

The other team mentioned in the article was the Mariners. That makes a lot of sense. I can see them using some kind of 1B/DH/C rotation with him and whoever they get to play first (they’re trying to re-sign Branyan, as I understand it). I’m not sure we match up in trade, though. They probably don’t want to trade Triunfel or Ackley, and I’m not sure they have anyone else worth parting with Doumit for.

by epoc on Nov 13, 2009 4:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

the rays might be much more willing to trade Brignac now… Doumit for Navarro and Rodriguez- I wouldn’t do it… really depends on whether NH is willing to play hard- a healthy Doumit over 130 games is probably +4-5 WAR… a power hitting, switch hitting catcher is very hard to find… and would land a pretty big package- just depends on who breaks over the injury history…

I m sure Ackley’s untouchable at this point…

by BurgherKing on Nov 13, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Rays didn’t want to trade Brignac for Bay because they still saw him as the future. With the breakout of Ben Zobrist, though, and with Beckham in the minors, he becomes more expendable.

That said, I’m not sure I like Brignac enough that I’d want to move Doumit for him straight-up. He’s done nothing with the bat to make me think he could ever replace Doumit’s presence in the lineup, and from the few games I’ve seen him play in Indy, he’s only a slightly above-average fielder.

I’d grade him out at an average SS who will probably be a decently above-average player in his prime. Upgrade over Cedeno, yes, but I doubt he’ll push D’Arnaud for the job. Not enough, IMO.

http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates

by Nate Rose on Nov 14, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Would it be totally impossible to make a deal work around Doumit for Brignac?

I assume the Bucs would have to add a bit.

by Suffering Buc on Nov 13, 2009 4:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Seriously

I sincerely believe the Rays would have to offer quite a bit more than Brignac for Doumit…

by BurgherKing on Nov 13, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Doumit’s value is at a “sell-low” point right now.

by Suffering Buc on Nov 13, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No kidding. But so is Brignac.

by Adam Reynolds on Nov 13, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brignac...

hasn’t done shit with the bat and is blocked big time at the major league level. His prospect star is dimming big time.

by Slick1 on Nov 13, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If teams are attempting to buy Doumit low, then the deal won’t get done.

by MarkInDallas on Nov 14, 2009 2:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know. Four years of Doumit is about equal to six years of Brignac, probably. Hard to say, though. People still seem to like Brignac even though he stopped hitting at AAA. But his ability to stay healthy and play defense probably evens things out. I’d want a little more for Doumit if I were the Bucs, but I’d probably want a little more for Brignac if I were the Rays.

by epoc on Nov 13, 2009 5:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He stopped hitting at AA. A full season of AA ball where he only OPSed .744 doesn’t impress me at all. kid has done nothing since the low minors.

http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates

by Nate Rose on Nov 14, 2009 1:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brignac and Rodriguez

He OPSed .766 as a 21-year-old in his only full season at AA. That’s not too bad. Really, the big warning sign is that he only OPSed .745 in AAA this year in his second tour of the league. Still, I think some of you are underrating Brignac because of the bat. He’s still only 24, can hit a little, and plays a decent shortstop. He’d probably be our number 2/3 prospect as soon as we got him. Six years of him for four of Doumit might be fair, though I might be too nervous to pull the trigger if I were running things. I’d probably ask for Navarro as well.

Also, does anyone know anything about Rodriguez? All I know is the stats, but they’re pretty impressive. From my limited perspective, I’d be very interested in trading Doumit for Rodriguez/Navarro, if the Rays like Brignac better.

by epoc on Nov 14, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rodriguez is limited to 2B

Decent hitter, with walks and power and contact issues. Kind of like Mark Bellhorn, with a better glove.

by Vlad on Nov 14, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I should also note...

…that his raw line is inflated by favorable parks somewhat.

by Vlad on Nov 14, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Vlad.

I didn’t realize he was strictly a 2b. Still, a young Bellhorn with a good glove is a fine player.

by epoc on Nov 14, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, definitely.

I think he’ll have a nice 10+ year career.

You weren’t crazy associating him with SS – he played a lot of it in the minors. It’s just that most scouts see him as a 2B.

by Vlad on Nov 15, 2009 12:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brignac is 24 and is probably going to be in AAA for the third straight year. He’s not a college draftee. We’re all close to giving up on Walker because he hasn’t produced under similar circumstances, but somehow Brignac would be valuable?

To me, 6 years of a decent SS doesn’t equal 4 years of a switch-hitting catcher that can play a little at two other positions and has decent pop, even if he is injury prone. I wouldn’t object to Brignac as a throw-in, but he shouldn’t be the centerpiece of a deal for Doumit. Even with Navarro added, I’d call the trade a push at best and more likely a Pirates loss.

http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates

by Nate Rose on Nov 16, 2009 1:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

If that’s the best we can bet we might as well hang on to Doumit and let him regenerate some value. He still a pluys offensive catcher so let’s hope he comes into the season in great shape and doesn’t experience a fluke injury.

by Slick1 on Nov 16, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Brignac would be a good pickup…from what I’ve read, I thought the Bucs pushed pretty hard for him last year when they were shopping Bay. Middle infielders are hard to find, and since the Rays are set at the ML level and also have Tim Beckham in the minors, I would think they’d be likely to move Brignac. I haven’t read much about him, but it seems that even though he doesn’t have one standout tool, he does several things fairly well.
I was thinking that to maximize value out of a deal, what would you guys think of them packaging Duke and Doumit? A combination like that might entice quite a few teams, and bring back a pretty good haul.

by NastyNate82 on Nov 13, 2009 6:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

For a comparison, ZIPS likes Neil Walker as a 3B better than Brignac as a SS, and they’re both about the same age.

by Adam Reynolds on Nov 13, 2009 7:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Since I’m highly ignorant concering ZIPS and some statistics, does it factor in defensive ability or projections at all, or is it mostly just offense? I guess what I’m asking is, some of the stuff I’ve found on Brignac praised his defense…is Walker as good at 3B (or better) than Brignac is at SS?

by NastyNate82 on Nov 13, 2009 7:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Walker has received...

pretty high praise for his defense at 3B.

by Slick1 on Nov 13, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’ve seen Walker at Indy many, many times. He’s a wizard with the glove. I like his defense better than Brignac’s.

http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates

by Nate Rose on Nov 14, 2009 1:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In other news

Giants prospect Angel Villalona has been charged with murder.

Pretty crazy scenario to be in as an organization, and quite a fix for the young man himself… didn’t want particularly to post this as a separate post, since it doesn’t relate to the Bucs, and not much to baseball…

by BurgherKing on Nov 13, 2009 9:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

So...

You think the Giants would throw him in as part of a Doumit trade?

by JRoth95 on Nov 16, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well -

we can at least look at the bright side; we got Alderson for Fred Sanchez rather than Villalona…

Possibly losing your stuff is better than being charged with murder.

by God Loves on Nov 16, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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