Rule 5 possibilities
Now that teams are starting to finalize their rosters prior to today's deadline, I thought it might be fun to create a thread and look at some of the players who will be available to us in this year's Rule 5 draft. We'll be picking second in the draft order, and as such, should have a good opportunity to come away with a useful talent (or two?).
Here are some of the options I like - please add your own in the comments. I'll try to add more to my list periodically, time permitting, though I'm going to be out of town for most of this weekend.
Yohan Pino , RHSP, 6'3'', 158 lbs, born 12/26/83, Cleveland's system. A Venezuelan originally signed by the Twins , Pino was traded to the Indians in the Carl Pavano deal last year. His fastball only reaches the high 80s, and he lacks the physical projection to add any more velocity, but he's got a good curve and slider and strong command of all his pitches. He misses bats (8.1 career K/9), doesn't give many free passes (2.2 career BB/9), and keeps the ball in the park (0.7 HR/9) despite being a flyball pitcher. He's been primarily used as a starter, but also has some experience in relief, and could handle either role. His health record is largely clean - there was some trouble with one of his feet in 2008, but it doesn't seem to have had any lasting effects.
Finesse pitchers sometimes experience diminishing returns with promotion, but I think Pino is a fairly good bet to succeed in the majors, insofar as his component rates have remained strong against more advanced competition (8.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 in 127 IP this year, mostly at AAA). He does not have a star-level ceiling, which might turn off a front office that reached for the sky with Veal last year, but I think he could do well at the back end of a rotation or in a bullpen for a number of years, and he would be useful right away.
Aneury Rodriguez , RHSP, 6'3", 180 lbs, born 12/13/1987, Tampa Bay's system. Like Pino, Rodriguez was dealt by his original team in 2009, moving from the Rockies to the Rays in exchange for Jason Hammel early in the year. He has better raw stuff than Pino, however, with a fastball that's already in the low 90s and some projection remaining on his frame. He also has a good curveball, and a fairly advanced feel for a changeup for a pitcher of his age (which is not necessarily the same thing as having a functional change for MLB, of course). He maintains a good strikeout rate (career 8.0 K/9) and is solid on walks (career 3.1 BB/9) and home runs (career 0.9 HR/9) despite flyball tendencies. He has been used exclusively as a starter in his pro career, though some scouts see him as a potential bullpen option, and his health record is clean.
Rodriguez has more upper-minors experience than some "live arm" picks, having spent all of 2009 in the rotation of AA Montgomery, but at this point he is probably not ready to compete in the majors, and would likely need to be hidden in a Vogelsong-type role of multi-inning low-leverage situations. He has some weaknesses typical of young pitchers, including a tendency to overthrow, and he could be frustrating to watch next season. Still, he has the potential to be a relatively high-value option down the road, occupying a spot in our rotation in late 2011 or 2012.
Cole Rohrbough , LHSP, 6'3'', 205 lbs., born 5/23/87, Atlanta's system. One of the last high-priced draft-and-follow players before the system was abolished, Rohrbough signed for $675,000 as a 22nd-round pick out of Western Nevada College in 2006 - second-round money at the time. He has a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a big curveball that can be a killer when it's on, and a changeup that's a work in progress. He was regarded as one of Atlanta's top prospects coming into 2009, but had inconsistent mechanics, which led to inconsistent command of his pitches. He also experienced some shoulder soreness last year, though no injury was found, and it was attributed to tendinitis. His rate stats were sound, though not exceptional, with the walk rate (3.7 BB/9) being the biggest concern. His ERA, while ugly, was much higher than those component rates would suggest.
Rohrbough is fairly raw, with no experience above A+ and inconsistent mechanics. He would probably need to be hidden like Veal was last year. There's a fairly high chance that he'll be a bust, but there's also a very high ceiling here - he could be a front-of-the-rotation starter if everything goes right. The team's success with a similar type of pitcher in Veal last year may encourage them to go back to the same well once more with Rohrbough, and we certainly have a need for lefty power arms.
John Raynor , R/R LF/CF, 6'2'', 185 lbs., born 1/4/84, Florida's system. A 9th-round pick out of UNC-Wilmington in 2006, Raynor was the Sally League MVP in 2007. He's one of the fastest players in the minors - timed at 6.3 in the 60 yard dash, with 141 stolen bases in only 418 career games, at a career success rate of 83%. He's mostly played left field, due to a weak throwing arm and some questionable defensive instincts, but could potentially play center with continued improvement. With the bat in his hands, he leverages his foot speed to hit for a good average (.298 career), and can pop a decent number of line drives. He has holes in his swing, however, leading to a fairly high K rate, and he'll probably never have much over-the-fence power. Raynor played at AAA in 2009 and struggled, posting a .255/.326/.357 raw line at New Orleans. His batting average on balls in play this year was significantly below his career norms, however, suggesting that luck may have been partially responsible for his poor performance. He had been dominant in both 2007 and 2008, but was a little bit old for his leagues, so the performance might need to be discounted somewhat. To further complicate matters analytically, he broke a bone in his hand playing in the AFL after the 2008 season, which may have dragged down his 2009 numbers.
The Pirates don't have a crying need for outfielders, but you never say "no" to talent, and it's not a ludicrous fit. Our backup CF from last season (Salazar) is a free agent, and Gorkys is probably at least a year away from being ready for the majors. We could carry Raynor as our fifth outfielder and use him as a PH/PR, a caddy for Cutch, and a late-inning defensive replacement if Garrett Jones ends up as the starting RF. In time, he could develop into a Nyjer-like player if everything goes right, though he'll need to put in a lot of work for that to happen.
The 2010 CHONE projection for Raynor is a .247/.324/.359 line. That projection assumes that his 2009 was not affected by the injury.
Luis Marte , RHSP, 5'11'', 170 lbs., born 8/26/86, Detroit's system. One of several interesting players left unprotected by the Tigers, Marte is a solid pitching prospect despite his small frame. Signed at 19 out of the Dominican Republic, he features a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a good slider, and a spotty changeup. He has good control numbers (2.7 career BB/9) despite inconsistent command, and fairly high strikeout totals (7.4 career K/9), mostly due to his slider. He leaves balls up in the zone at times, leading to a higher-than-ideal number of home runs, and his lack of a solid changeup gives him problems against lefties, who hit .305 against him last year. He also has some medical red flags, spending time on the DL with both elbow and shoulder pain over the last two years, although in neither case was surgery needed. His velocity reportedly dipped into the high 80s on several occasions last year, possibly due to the tender arm.
In the majors, I see Marte as a short reliever with tactical value against righties, in the mold of Steve Reed or Scott Strickland. His aggressive approach should translate well to short relief, which would also minimize his risk of injury, and let him use his fastball and slider to best effect. If he could show improvement down the road with the change and become a true setup option, so much the better. That said, many teams will not even consider a RHP under six feet tall, so it's hard to know whether Marte would be a consideration for our scouts or not.
Brayan Villareal , RHSP, 6'0'', 170 lbs., born 10/5/87, Detroit's system. Another undersized Latin righty from the Tigers, Villareal is a high-risk, high-reward option. The Venezuelan's fastball routinely sits in the mid-90s and sometimes spikes higher, and it also has good life and sink. He complements it with an above-average slider and a pretty decent changeup for a kid in A-ball. He enjoyed a breakout season in the Midwest League this year, striking out more than ten batters per nine innings, and allowing only five home runs in 103 1/3 innings pitched. This was, unfortunately, almost the entirety of his experience in the American minors, as he missed almost all of 2007 and 2008 due to Tommy John surgery. He was used mainly as a starter last year, but also spent some time in the bullpen, in an effort to limit his total innings.
Villareal is a high-ceiling talent, advanced for his age and regarded as someone who could move quickly through the Tigers system, but his lack of even mid-minors experience means that he probably could not be counted on to contribute much in the majors next year. His injury history and small size present risks, but if he remains healthy and continues to develop, he could be a #2 or #3 starter.
Danny Dorn , LH LF/1B, 6'2'', 190 lbs., born 7/20/84, Cincinnati's system. One of the heroes of Cal State-Fullerton's College World Series championship squad in 2006, Dorn was a 32nd-round pick in the 2006 draft who has consistently outplayed the expectations of scouts. His bat is his best tool, with good contact ability and solid power, thanks to sound mechanics and a high flyball rate. He doesn't draw many walks because he doesn't go deep into counts. He also has a fairly dramatic platoon split: .299/.370/.497 against RHP in 2009, but only .189/.238/.365 against LHP. For his career as a whole, it's just as dramatic: .312/.394/.554 against RHP, .215/.310/.356 against LHP. L/R offensive splits ARE predictive for left-handed batters, and as such, he would probably need to be platooned rigorously in the majors. He's not particularly toolsy, and has below-average speed. Defensively, he's limited to LF or 1B due to both a lack of speed and an injury to his throwing shoulder suffered in his college days, though he's a competent enough fielder at both spots. His health record as a pro is fairly clean, with a few minor nagging injuries but no serious problems since the shoulder injury.
Dorn has the ability to be a solid platoon starter in the majors right away, but his lack of positional flexibility and his problems with RHP will impose tactical limitations on his manager and limit his ultimate upside. He'll probably always be more of a complementary part on a good team, rather than a core player - he's drawn some scouting comparisons to Garret Anderson. Still, his swing would look good in our park, we could use a challenger for Brandon Moss in the corner outfield, and Dorn's made a habit of exceeding expectations.
The 2010 CHONE projection for Dorn is a .257/.321/.452 line.
To be continued...
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55 comments
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Comments
this should be a cool thread
btw, looking at Pino, can you also add in why he is available in the Rule 5 draft? Because the Indians have too many to protect? Because it sounds he is ready to contribute to some degree!
by BurgherKing on Nov 20, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Indians have a lot of eligible guys this year.
They rostered seven, and had a few other draftable guys beyond Pino who didn’t get added to the list. And as I noted, scouts have always been somewhat skeptical of Pino because he’s a little guy who doesn’t throw particularly hard. Some of the guys they added, like Kelvin De La Cruz, are more traditional power arms.
There’s some video footage of Pino in action here. It’s more than two years old, though, so take it with a large grain of salt.
by Vlad on Nov 20, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rohrbough is an interesting idea. I was really excited about him a couple years ago. So raw, though, and if he can’t succeed even at Myrtle Beach…
by Charlie on Nov 20, 2009 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Myrtle's interesting.
It used to be death on hitters, but since they expanded the seating it’s played as a much more neutral environment.
There’s some gossip about Rohrbough being mentally soft, which is impossible for us to evaluate from where we are, and could just as easily be an ex-post-facto rationalization for his 2009 struggles as a legitimate concern. The Pirates would be in a better position to know one way or the other, and act accordingly.
by Vlad on Nov 20, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh. I didn’t know Myrtle played differently now. Less foul territory?
by Charlie on Nov 20, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You may want to throw a cut on this entry.
I didn’t realize it was going to be this long, and we’re already only three players in.
by Vlad on Nov 20, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Never mind
Figured out how to do it myself.
by Vlad on Nov 20, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Our list of moves was just announced:
We added Lincoln, Gorkys, Morris, and Aguero. No real surprises there.
We also claimed Chris Jakubauskas on waivers, which is kind of a head-scratcher. He’s 30, he doesn’t have particularly great rate numbers, and he had arm problems last year. Seems like a strange claim, particularly since they let a much better player in Daryl Thompson slip through waivers earlier in the day.
by Vlad on Nov 20, 2009 5:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i came here to post exactly that
jeff karstens is not worse! why DFA him!
by BurgherKing on Nov 20, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably an arbitration thing
He was eligible, and I guess they didn’t think he was worth more than a million bucks.
by Vlad on Nov 20, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t mind DFAing Karstens. There’s a good chance he’ll clear waivers. He’s really just AAA depth. But who the frak is this guy we claimed? Charlie, do you have any Mariners contacts who can tell us anything?
by WTM on Nov 20, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jakubauskas has an interesting background: a first baseman at U of Oklahoma, he switched to pitching, got signed by Seattle out of the Golden Baseball League in 2006, and broke into the majors last year at age 30:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2008958475_mari01.html
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2009273874_mari29.html
by Traco Bucco on Nov 20, 2009 5:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Golden Baseball League sounds like a league for senior citizens.
by WTM on Nov 20, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he will be the second-oldest player on the 40-man, after Vazquez. ;-) The Golden Baseball League is an indy league with teams in the western USA, Canada and Mexico:
by Traco Bucco on Nov 20, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I cant believe
that we DFA-ed Diaz! WTF! Seriously?
by BurgherKing on Nov 20, 2009 5:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Package them up and ship them out
Couldn’t the Pirates have packaged Bautista, Kartsens, Diaz, and Bootcheck to get some nice prospects that they would want to have on their roster? The Pirates might have been able to make a nice deal with the Mets, Mariners, or Tigers for at least one guy they would want.
by formerdraftpick on Nov 22, 2009 7:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If your definition of nice is the same as Dave Littlefield’s the yes.
by ravidesai1984 on Dec 1, 2009 2:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Evidently...
we’ve fallen in love with pitchers from the Mariners system. Two in the Wilson trade, Thomas (now DFA’d) and Jakubauskas.
by Thunder on Nov 20, 2009 5:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What kinda bugs me is that these guys are getting waived the whole way through the AL. Doesn’t anybody there need pitching, or do these guys just suck?
by WTM on Nov 20, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they are viewed as AAAA ...
But your point is well taken. These guys aren’t very good.
by Bernie6666 on Nov 21, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We could end up with Morrow
If Seattle wants Doumit bad enough
by BadAndy on Nov 20, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Do we want Morrow for Doumit? My gut says probably not one for one if Morrow is wild and not a starter.
by Adam Reynolds on Nov 20, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Morrow Vs. Doumit
I agree, I don’t think Morrow for Doumit straight up is a great deal right now. But I’m not sure how much Morrow was screwed up through his strange handling by the Mariners management this past year. It seems like once they moved him back to the rotation he did fairly well as a starter in September.
by NastyNate82 on Nov 21, 2009 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I Think
Morrow started some last year, and personally I’d rather have him than Edwin Jackson, but we probably end up with neither.
I’m still thinking that NH has got Clement in mind to do some catching, especially since Robizon is gone.
by God Loves on Nov 20, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
6-3 158?
Is that a typo? I’ve seen bats that weren’t that thin.
by bucdaddy on Nov 20, 2009 5:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Listed weight doesn't always = real weight...
…but there’s no denying that he’s a skinny dude.
by Vlad on Nov 20, 2009 11:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Cole Rohrbough
Would be my pick. He’s struggled. But there is plenty of upside. What do the Pirates have to lose?
by Bernie6666 on Nov 21, 2009 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Felix Doubront?
Felix Doubront is a left handed starter in the Sox org who can pitch in the low 90’s and has a nice off speed mix. Is he Rule V eligible? He could probably make it as a fourth or fifth starter on the Pirates roster.
by formerdraftpick on Nov 22, 2009 7:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
My Bad
I didn’t see he was on the 40man roster.
by formerdraftpick on Nov 22, 2009 7:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't feel bad...
…it’s tough to keep track of all the moves.
Doubront would be interesting if he hadn’t been rostered.
by Vlad on Nov 30, 2009 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yamaico Navarro
He’s a shortstop in the Red Sox system. He didn’t have a great year last year and hasn’t reached AAA but he has solid glove and a plus arm. He may end up only being a utility man but he has power to all fields and can hit. He has poor plate discipline and chases to many bad pitches but he just turned 22 and is Rule 5 eligible.
by dunkuntou on Nov 22, 2009 11:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It turns out that because he signed his contract in September after the minor league season ended rather than in July he actually won’t be eligible until next year.If he was eligible I’m also certain some team would take him at least to try him out.
by ElDuce on Nov 23, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
dec 10? donno why the number popped into my head!
by BurgherKing on Nov 22, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m all for anyone named Pino, for my own reasons.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 22, 2009 7:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You both have good rame of reference.
My reason’s other than those, though. ;-)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 23, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cocktails
It occurred to me to say something about you, but I decided your fame should rest quietly.
As for the Rule V possibilities so far, I like what I’ve read about Cole Rohrbough. We’re going to be lousy next year, so why not take a big gamble on another lefty starter project?
If recent reports are to be taken at face value, Donald Veal has made great strides in preparing for next year, so trying for one more southpaw with excellent stuff sounds good to me.
by patthatt on Nov 22, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just throwing out some names of guys I think could be picked in the Rule 5. Not necessarily by the Pirates, but guys who teams might find interesting. Some moreso than others.
Arizona RHP Matt Torra
Atlanta LHP Cole Rohrbough
Atlanta LHP Edgar Osuna
Atlanta LHP Jose Ortegano
Baltimore RHP Steve Johnson
Baltimore RHP Josh Perrault
Boston OF Zach Daeges
Cincinnati LHP Alex Smit
Cincinnati OF/1B Danny Dorn
Cleveland C Matt McBride
Cleveland LHP Chuck Lofgren
Cleveland RHP Yohan Pino
Colorado OF Cole Garner
Colorado RHP Craig Baker
Detroit RHP Brett Jensen
Detroit RHP Brayan Villareal
Detroit RHP Luis Marte
Florida CF John Raynor
Houston OF Drew Locke
NYY RHP George Kontos
NYY RHP Kenekoa Texeira
Oakland C Anthony Recker
Seattle OF Carlos Peguero
Tampa Bay RHP Aneury Rodriguez
Texas 1B Chad Tracy
Washington RHP Josh Wilkie
by ElDuce on Nov 24, 2009 4:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I kind of ran out of time...
…but Kontos was the next guy I was going to write up.
by Vlad on Nov 30, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn’t Kontos one of the pitchers the Buccos were looking at last year in the Nady/Marte deal?
by NastyNate82 on Nov 24, 2009 8:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes. He actually is coming off Tommy John surgery and won’t be ready for the beginning of the season. That may take him completely off the Rule 5 radar, but it also creates an opportunity to stash him on the 60 day at the beginning of the year then let him rehab a while. Not sure how good an option he is, but he’s available if a team wants to try it.
by ElDuce on Nov 24, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kontos is a decent option.
He was more-or-less ML-ready at the time he got hurt, and would probably be ready to contribute immediately once healthy. He won’t be ready until midseason, due to the TJ, and as such won’t achieve the minimum amount of ML roster time this year, but given his state of readiness keeping him up for the early part of 2010 probably wouldn’t be a significant hardship.
by Vlad on Nov 30, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So what happens if the Bucs draft him, and he doesn’t reach the minimum time on the active roster? Would he have to be offered back to the Yankees?
by biggyv on Nov 30, 2009 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he doesn't reach the minimum time in 2010...
…then that time rolls over into 2011, and he’d have to stay on the 25-man roster for that many days at the start of the 2011 season (under the usual Rule 5 restrictions).
We wouldn’t have to offer him back to the Yankees.
by Vlad on Nov 30, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Since it's always nice to see what other Pirates blogs are thinking...
…Rum Bunter posted their recommended picks here.
by Vlad on Dec 1, 2009 11:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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