Pirates looking at Duchscherer
Seems like a potentially very good buy low pickup. I assume many teams are interested in his services, so the Pirates may have to gamble and give him a larger guarantee to persuade him to come on. Seems worth a shot to me.
2 months ago
ElDuce
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depending on the contract of course (which would have to be short).
It seems most quality teams want him as a starter/reliever. It wouldn’t be a bad move for him to go to a lesser team and establish himself as a starter for a year, and then go for a bigger deal next offseason.
by element1286 on Nov 30, 2009 11:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's got several different kinds of medical issues...
…(both mental and physical), but if healthy he’s definitely worth pursuing.
by Vlad on Dec 1, 2009 9:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bring Giles back?
Not that he’s ideal, as he had a miserable 09 season, but he would be very cheap and could have a bench role / pinch hit and relieve Jones, Milledge, and whoever else in the outfield. The Padres, as expected, did not offer him arbitration. He could serve the role the team hoped Eric Hinske would last season.
In addition to being an adequate bench player, I think it would boost PR for NH and the front office, as well as provide decent leadership, as Giles has always been a good clubhouse guy and seemed to enjoy his time here in Pittsburgh.
by jlk9697 on Dec 1, 2009 2:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't like guys who hit women.
It’s too bad that Giles turned out to be that sort – I enjoyed his time in Pittsburgh a lot.
by Vlad on Dec 1, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Come on
He tanned nonstop and walked around naked nearly 24/7…Surely you can look past the fact that he hit, slapped, shook and possibly pushed his pregnant girlfriend down a flight of stairs causing her to miscarry.
by Slizeezyc on Dec 1, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Holy shit
How did I miss that?
Probably locked it away in the “guess I shouldn’t have admired him” file.
Actually, once I realized that his performance was almost surely juiced up (look at his ISO drop after ’02), it was fairly easy to forget about him.
by JRoth95 on Dec 2, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here’s an article on the Giles brothers in San Diego.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/spring/2007-02-27-giles_x.htm
San Diego Padres right fielder Brian Giles, in the shower after a morning workout, steps out and screams for his brother.
“Marcus, Marcus, hurry up and get in here,” Brian Giles screams. “Chris is in here.”
Marcus Giles, seven years younger than Brian, yells, “Oh, boy,” strips his clothes and is showering within seconds.
Minutes later, Padres pitcher Chris Young is red-faced and out of the shower, still shaking his head.
“You get nervous when you see those guys come into the shower,” says Young, a Princeton graduate. “Let’s put it this way: You definitely don’t close your eyes in there, even when you’re shampooing.”
So just what happened in there to make Young flee as if one of the Giles boys pulled a fire alarm?
“Ah, we just like to shave in there,” Brian says, referring to their body hair, not their faces. “Chris, for some reason, thinks it’s gross.”
by ElDuce on Dec 3, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why not fill a bench with upside players (like a potential Garrett Jones)? I don’t understand the point of filling it with washouts like Craig Monroe, Ramon Vazquez, Chris Gomez, Luis Rivas, Jason Michaels, etc.
As good as Giles was in his peak (which was damn good and the best player in the 17 losing seasons), he’ll be another monroe at this point.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 1, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been saying that for years, but NH really seems to think you need vets on the bench. Maybe the Jones experience changed his thinking.
by WTM on Dec 1, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Never underestimate the impact..
…that bringing back a familiar name can have in selling tickets. We all agree winning is the #1 aspect for the Pirates, but if bringing Giles back would generate interest and put even a few more fans in the seats each game, you have to think they’d love that. Remember, the Pirates are a company too. Not that they shouldn’t go after more Garrett Jones type upside players, but if it costs say, 1 more million or so to bring back the name value of Brian Giles over similar production from a Monroe, Michaels, Hinske, I say do it. Fill the seats with fools.
by jlk9697 on Dec 1, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Griffey did wonders for the Mariners this year...
Seattle Mariners 2008 – 2,329,702
Seattle Mariners 2009 – 2,195,128
by MarkInDallas on Dec 1, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's what a nasty divorce does to you
Off-topic, but this was a jaw-dropper, at least to me: The Dodgers didn’t offer arbitration to anybody. Not Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf, Guillermo Mota, Jon Garland, Ronnie Belliard, Vicente Padilla, or Will Ohman. A lot of those are easy to see, but all of them?
by WTM on Dec 1, 2009 4:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Have You
Been following the divorce case? It’s some quality stuff.
I can just imagine their Turkey dinner going something like:
“You ruined my life you greedy b!tch…errr excuse me, I meant to say pass the gravy darling.”
by Slizeezyc on Dec 1, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not closely
But I liked the part where what’s-her-name referred to herself in a court filing as “the face of the Dodgers.” Hell, if she looks like Joe Torre it’s no wonder he’s divorcing her.
by WTM on Dec 1, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The KC Star also reports the Pirates are looking at Jamey Wright.
Blechhhhh.
by WTM on Dec 1, 2009 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I second that emotion
He’d be a decent NRI if he can still start (which he probably can’t), but anything more than that is a bad idea.
by Vlad on Dec 1, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Since his contact had a bunch of incentives that were geared to numbers of games, all the way up to 60, it’s a safe bet he can’t start.
I’d go after Brendan Donnelly. He’s old and an injury risk, but he was very effective for the Marlins this year. They need a shut-down setup guy, not a bullpen equivalent of a 5th starter. Since they’re not going to sign a top FA reliever, they’ll have to take a risk on somebody like Donnelly.
Wright not only has a low ceiling, he’s high-risk as well. His 2009 WHIP and walk rate are scary, no matter how many groundballs he gets. His HR rate was just mediocre, too. He looks to me like a guy who’s just barely hanging on. He’d be a disturbingly Littlefieldian low-reward, high-risk signing.
by WTM on Dec 1, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I Hope
the old adage that there are many, many more rumors than truths applies here.
I can’t imagine that NH would be considering Jamie Wright at any cost, much less the $1.5 mm he’d most likely cost.
by God Loves on Dec 1, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d pay him that much to pitch for the Brewers.
by WTM on Dec 1, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really get what NH is doing
Seems like every day there’s news of him chasing another high risk, medium upside pitcher. I could see identifying 1 or 2 guys, like Duchscherer, who have real upside, but when you hear about Wright and Lowry (who basically had 2 good-not-great years several years ago), it just seems like they’re throwing shit against the wall.
I guess NRIs never hurt, but I suspect that this will more likely lead to either a dubious signing or annoying the fan base by talking about a lot of guys who end up signing elsewhere (and given that we shouldn’t want some of these guys, that just seems like bad PR).
by JRoth95 on Dec 2, 2009 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lowry is OK.
He can’t possibly be expecting more than a NRI at this point given his health situation, he’s still fairly young, and being left handed gives him a little extra value. He’s certainly no worse a bet than Gorzelanny at this point, and people here seemed to luuurve the idea of Gorz in the rotation as of a couple of months ago.
But Wright? Yeah, I don’t really want any part of that.
by Vlad on Dec 2, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let’s bear in mind that Dejan has reported that the Pirates have contacted practically every pitcher out there. These are just a few of them.
by WTM on Dec 2, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What I’m wondering is why they’re contacting so many, is my point – I could see if they only had 5 possible arms total. I’m happy to see competition, but realistically there’s only 1 spot open, and 2 plausible guys already – how many more starters do they need competing for 1 spot?
I know, I know, injuries, depth, blah blah. I just don’t see why they’re casting such a crazy-wide net – if they were to get lucky on a longshot, how would they even know from spring training?
by JRoth95 on Dec 3, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I mean
Do you want them not to explore options? I figure it’s better to make lots of contact than too little.
by Slizeezyc on Dec 3, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the latest outrage is that the team is looking at options? If the Pirates weren’t checking out as many, people would be going nuts. I know it’s always a long, boring off-season, but…
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 3, 2009 2:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You do realize that being interested and actually signing the guys are two different things, right? Some of the guys are obviously going to sign elsewhere. You have to talk to different players to figure out the market and see which guys might give you more value. Also, when you’re not talking about elite players, it’s always good to have options and hope that one works when none are sure things.
by ElDuce on Dec 3, 2009 2:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why only five arms?
Aren’t we planning on having a AAA affiliate at Indy this year?
by Vlad on Dec 3, 2009 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
in the last few years there’s been a AAA team in pittsburgh too…
no harm in bringing in as many guys as possible.
by johnnycuff on Dec 3, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All I meant was that none of these guys look any more likely than Hart or McCutchen (most look less likely), which places them #7 on the depth chart – before you even look at Lincoln. Obviously you need AAA arms (I mentioned depth in my very first comment), but I’m not sure how attractive the offer is – come to Spring Training with us, and maybe you’ll be the #3 starter in Indy!
Anyway, I already said in a newer thread that, once it was clarified that these names are really nothing more than phone calls, it doesn’t seem so odd to me – I was getting the impression that NH was actually chasing a dozen (or more) low-odds, middle-upside pitchers. If he’s just hoping to have a few in camp to provide a little competition and a little insurance, that’s fine and normal.
by JRoth95 on Dec 4, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What?
I might – might – be willing to credit the Gorzo comparison except for, oh, I dunno, Lowry not having thrown a pitch since September of 2007. Do you think that might make a difference? Meanwhile, Gorzo has pitched 4 seasons, one of them (quite) bad; Lowry has pitched 3.5 seasons, 2 of them bad (can we agree a 4.9 FIP is bad?) – how are those the same thing?
The last time Noah Lowry was an effective major league pitcher, Gorzo was getting a September callup. Or hey, maybe Denny Neagle is available.
by JRoth95 on Dec 3, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whereas Gorzo only wishes he hadn't pitched since September of '07.
Lowry has one season with 3.4 WAR, and in his other three full years he was in the vicinity of 1.5. A 1.5 WAR season isn’t going to win any awards, but it’s pretty much average production from a #4 starter. Some guys in that vicinity last year were Johnny Cueto, John Lannan, Ross Ohlendorf, and Joe Saunders.
Gorz had one season with 2.9 WAR (i.e. not as good as Lowry’s best season), and in his other three years he was worth less than 1 WAR, going as low as -1.0 in 2008.
If Lowry is fully recovered, then he has a higher level of baseline performance than Gorz, as well as having a higher “peak”. And while it’s a concern that he hasn’t pitched in two years, it’s also a concern that Gorz has negative net value vs. a replacement-level player over that same time period.
The main concern is whether Lowry is healthy at this point, but since all the reports out right now indicate that he is, I don’t see any reason to assume otherwise.
by Vlad on Dec 3, 2009 9:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah
I hadn’t looked at workload, which is where Lowry’s value came in his poor seasons – he pitched poorly in ’06 and ’07 (tRA around 5.5), but he ate a lot of innings, whereas Gorzo has pitched only one full season (albeit a pretty good one).
I notice that, in comparing their respective best seasons, Lowry’s tRA is 0.03 worse than Gorzo’s, but his FIP is 0.35 better – which one is FanGraphs using to generate RAR? It appears to be a BABIP artifact (plus he got a bit lucky on HR/FB), but it’s hard to tell.
by JRoth95 on Dec 4, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they use FIP for RAR/WAR.
In cases where there’s a difference between FIP and tRA, it comes from tRA normalizing expected hits for each batted ball type.
Looking at Lowry’s 2005 line, two things jump out at me: a much higher than usual rate of infield flies (which would yield fewer hits than expected from pure G/L/F rates) and a much higher than usual rate of bunt hits (which would yield more hits than expected from pure G/L/F rates).
by Vlad on Dec 4, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW...
…xFIP is the best predictor of future ERA results (Link). That adjusts HR based on HR/FB, but doesn’t adjust hits by individual G/L/F rates.
by Vlad on Dec 4, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My own ability
goes up and down wildly each day. So it’s not surprising that an MLB pitcher’s would.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 4, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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