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Rule 5 Draft Open Thread

I'm on rock-band schedule, so I can't guarantee I'll be awake. You can listen to the draft here. It's at 9:00 EST.

...Actually predicting who will get picked in the Rule 5 is always such a crapshoot, since every year there are a number of players who come up in every pre-draft conversation but still don't get drafted. So who knows. But I'd look for the Pirates to take a pitcher, maybe someone who might eventually start but can be hidden in the bullpen for a while.

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From Fox Sports

Pittsburgh is planning to select right-handed pitcher Craig Baker out of the Colorado system in the Rule V draft.

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 8:04 AM EST reply actions  

And More

Converted to a reliever after he signed in pro ball, Baker has spent three full years at the Single-A level — including the last two with Modesto — averaging four strikeouts per one walk, and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

In 2009, he led the California League in appearances (62) and saves (33), giving up one home run in 62 2/3 innings. —Tracy Ringolsby

Sorry for the steal instead of a link, but constantly updated so link may not get story…

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 8:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Looks good to me:

Perhaps most disappointing is that one of those names is the last name we cut out of our early preview, righthander Craig Baker of the Rockies.Baker was an ace at Cal State Northridge and a third-round pick in 2006, and he’s had shoulder injuries since college that limited him in his first two pro seasons. However, he proved durable as the high Class A California League’s top closer this season, saving 33 games, posting a 2.39 ERA and striking out 75 in a career-best 63 innings. His manager at Modesto, Jerry Weinstein, told BA this fall that Baker needs a bit more fastball command and perhaps a two-seam fastball or other pitch to help combat lefthanded hitters, but added, “All of his intangibles are tremendous. He has a real good work ethic and real good makeup.”

Of course it’s more important to have real good stuff, and Baker does, with a 90-93 mph fastball and his signature power curveball, a plus low-80s breaker. He also throws a a slider for strikes.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 8:36 AM EST up reply actions  

2009 Major league equivalents:

FIP: 3.17
BAA: .220
WHIP: 1.22
BB/9: 4.02
K/9: 8.17
HR/9: 0.14
GB%: 50.0
FB%: 30.2

Even though he was only in A+ last year, the stats look major league ready.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 8:43 AM EST reply actions  

Cool...

when does he go on the DL with a mysterious injury?

by maguro on Dec 10, 2009 9:05 AM EST reply actions  

raynor!

didn’t see that coming!

by BurgherKing on Dec 10, 2009 9:07 AM EST reply actions  

Raynor's pretty good.

He was one of the guys I listed in my preview. After Rodriguez, Villareal, and Pino, I probably liked him best.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 9:17 AM EST reply actions  

Yes and no.

He’s faster than Nyjer, and younger. More power (mostly doubles/triples), but less contact.

Defensive abilities are pretty comparable to early Nyjer, where he uses speed to cover a lot of ground but doesn’t have great instincts.

Some upside if he can refine his natural talents more.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Everything I've read says yes.

Scouts pretty routinely grade him out as an 80 runner (on the 20-80 scale).

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

If you want numbers...

…he’s been timed at a 6.3 60-yard dash.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

As a Nyjer fan

I like to hear that. Although I think that party of Nyjer’s appeal – both as a person and as a player – came from his unusual background. The improvements he made at a (relatively) old age reflect very well on him, and I think it’s something most players end up not doing.

That said, I like a Rule 5 pick who doesn’t have to come int games and walk the bases loaded once a week. Unless he’s just utterly incapable of hitting, I think he’ll fit just fine on our bench.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe I underestimated him

DK just posted a phone call with Raynor, and here’s what he says about running:

“I’m a guy who gets the job done. I take a lot of pride in my D, but my biggest pride comes with stealing bases. I’m very technical about it, but I love running, love taking the extra base. I love scoring runs. Those are a big goal for me every year. I’d like to say I’ll bring that with me and have it rub off on players around me.”

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

AAA

Pirates take

ss Roldopo Cordona

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 9:25 AM EST reply actions  

You sure that’s spelled right?

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 9:27 AM EST up reply actions  

rodolfo cardona, orioles… Link

by BurgherKing on Dec 10, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions  

No - Ro-Dolf-o Cor-don-a

I believe is how it’s pronounced – spelling?

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 9:29 AM EST up reply actions  

So, outside of the obvious, how is the AAA phase different than the Major League rule 5? If there is any real difference

by TravisDW on Dec 10, 2009 9:30 AM EST reply actions  

For the AAA phase:

You can pick players (with sufficient experience) who are on any other team’s roster from AA on down. You pay less to get them, and you don’t have to keep them at a particular level all year – they’re just immediately yours, to do with as you will.

There’s also a AA phase, where you can pay even less and take players from A+ rosters on down.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Pirates

Lose no one in the AAA portion

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 9:37 AM EST reply actions  

So we took one guy and lost no one in the minor league phase? There’s usually a lot more activity than that.

by WTM on Dec 10, 2009 9:40 AM EST reply actions  

Would this push out DY?

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 9:40 AM EST reply actions  

Probably either Moss or Young (who’s not really an infielder) is out. If we get rid of Vazquez without getting another infielder, then we are an injury-prone Crosby away from Bixler or Argenis on the 25 man!

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Young proved to be a solid pinch hitter off the bench and at least in a pinch can play 2B. Moss proved, well….he proved he’s not very good. My guess is if someone else wants Moss (I’m guessing no one does) the Pirates would give him away at this point. Cutch, Milledge, Jones, DY and Raynor sounds like a pretty good OF to me. Jones of course could wind up at 1B with Tabata in the OF slot by mid season.

by Brakeman8 on Dec 10, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Moss is an above-average defender in an OF corner.

Young is average (OF) to below-average (2B) at all the positions he can handle.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Fielding doesn't matter if you can't hit

And Moss played himself out of the worst offensive lineup in baseball. His bat might play at SS, but for a corner OF, he’s not even close.

I’m not convinced he’s done – I’m sure he’d get at least a chance elsewhere, as he’s still young – but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he plays sporadically for one more MLB season and then is done.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

It wouldn't surprise me much...

…if that were the case for either guy.

I just don’t see much of an argument for Young as being a significantly better bet going forward than Moss.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

I personally prefer DY, but not strongly. As I’ve said, to me Pearce is the odd man out. He already got his 1 last chance, afaic.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Pearce's saving grace

Is that he hit lefties well, so he may still have some value as a bench player. DY is at least versatile in the field; even though he’s not very good defensively, he can still play several positions in a short-term crunch. Moss doesn’t really have a place on an ML roster given his current production.

by biggyv on Dec 10, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Can't find much about Cardona.

He’s apparently played a fair bit of 2B in addition to SS.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 9:50 AM EST reply actions  

Appears to have become an org. guy at age 22. The Pirates are going to be short on middle infielders at Bradenton. The only SS who projects to be there is Jose de los Santos, for about the 40th year.

by WTM on Dec 10, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

A pitcher would have helped us out more in 2010, but if Raynor has the upside of a starter then we got better value out of this pick. Either Milledge flames out (hopefully not!), or we have trade bait if this guy shows a lot of potential.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 10:11 AM EST reply actions  

Nice job of MLB....

updating their link. They have the first pick and nothing else. Anyone have a link to the full day’s activities. Seems like some of the upside pitchers didn’t go, surprisingly, but I haven’t seen the whole list.

by David Todd on Dec 10, 2009 10:12 AM EST reply actions  

From Klaw's Twitter

“Pirates take John Raynor from Florida in Rule 5 draft – good fourth outfielder right now with a chance to be more.”

He’s pretty tough on everybody, so that has to be a good sign.

by Maxwell.C on Dec 10, 2009 10:14 AM EST reply actions  

It just got......

a little harder for John Van Every to make the roster out of spring training. That was the spot I thought he was ticketed for.

by David Todd on Dec 10, 2009 10:17 AM EST reply actions  

Yep

Of course, you never know what’ll happen during the course of the season. Last year, it looked like the Hinske signing blocked Sanchez, but he ended up spending a fair bit of time on the roster anyway.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Van Every

For a minute I thought this was a joke name, and I was trying to figure out why you’d be talking about JVB in this context….

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Speaking of which...

…he just had another arm surgery last week. The non-throwing shoulder again, IIRC.

Poor guy. He’s probably spent more time in rehab than on the mound for his career.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Sickels

really likes Raynor. He had a down year in ‘09, but going into it Sickels gave him a B- and bemoaned the lack of attention Raynor was getting. Fast, adept at using speed on bases, has some power, draws walks, hustles, good glove, but weak arm limits him to corner OF. Only real negative is a fairly high strikeout rate, but would make a “really good” 4th OFer and wouldn’t be afraid to give him a shot as a regular.

Nice pick.

by rogero on Dec 10, 2009 10:38 AM EST reply actions  

Rogero, I forget, were you one of the folks who was upset the Bucs didn’t pick Brian Barton last year?

by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 10, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Braves give Soriano to TB for Chavez.....

I would have been happier with Soriano rather than Iwamura

The ball just got bigger and bigger and then BAM it hit me.

by .500 Please on Dec 10, 2009 10:45 AM EST reply actions  

I don’t know…Soriano’s going to be pretty expensive when his arbitration number comes up.

by mak_DC on Dec 10, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions  

And no one was expecting Soriano to accept arbitration. Doubt the Braves would’ve signed Wagner had they known what was coming.

by biggyv on Dec 10, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions  

$8+M at least.

Iwamura is a better fit for us, at that price tag.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Raynor is a great pick, but I still don’t see how he’s necessarily a better bet than Moss who is presumably on the outs here. .690 OPS at AAA vs. Moss’ .660 in the Bigs at the same age isn’t too much difference, and the MLB .660 is likely harder.

Raynor has great seasons in 07 and 08, but he also had a .400+ BABIP both years. With major league fielders, I believe we’re going to expect that to be more in the .330s or .340s for a fast guy, and that would bring down those numbers quite a lot.

There must be a large defensive difference that I’m disregarding here.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 10:49 AM EST reply actions  

Bear in mind

NH says Raynor will have to win the job in spring – they haven’t chucked Moss (or Young) out the door just yet. I think that, with Raynor’s speed, they like his upside more than Moss’s, but he’ll have to show that 2009 was just a bump, and that he can bounce back a bit. B B B B B.

Also don’t forget that, if Clement flames out/gets hurt, GF Jones becomes the everyday 1B, and we need 3 OFs on top of Cutch & Milledge.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Moss and Raynor aren't necessarily in direct competition

Raynor is probably the backup CF, and while Moss is a good corner defender, I don’t think he’s seen as an option for that role.

It’s hard to know exactly how next year’s roster will shake out. I do think that at least one of Moss/Pearce/Clement is getting bumped. Maybe two if Young can’t beat out Vazquez as the primary 2B/3B backup.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Thank you...

I don’t know why everyone just assumes this spells the end of Moss. IMO, Moss and Raynor have much more upside than DY and Vasquez. Personally I think they’ll cut Ramon Vasquez now that Crosby is signed.

by Slick1 on Dec 10, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I will guess Pearce or Vasquez.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 10, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

There's just no need to

If it’s Cedeno, Vasquez and Crosby, and you can only keep two, Vasquez getting paid is a pretty easy tiebreaker. If he just can’t play any more (admittedly possible), that’s different. If that’s the case, sure, cut him and your losses. But his 2009 platoon split was upside down. If he can still hit righties, he’s the best offensive option of the three.

Really, Cedeno is terrible. His time with the Pirates last year was basically his career year. He’s well beyond bad. The odds of him duplicating his 2009 Pirate line is really small.

by azibuck on Dec 11, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

They're paying all three the same amount of money...

…regardless of which one gets cut. As such, why would the salaries of the individual players enter into it?

by Vlad on Dec 11, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

??

Crosby got half (plus incentives) of what Vazquez did. I’m sorry, I didn’t realize Cedeno agreed to 2010 terms. What is he getting?

by azibuck on Dec 11, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions  

He just did.

 $1.125MM

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 12, 2009 8:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Vazquez gets his $2 million or whatever whether he makes the team or not and the other 2 get their $1 million. So the Pirates are paying $4 million in salaries to the 3 of them regardless. Basing Vazquez making the team on his salry is stupid. It’s a sunk cost. Whoever has the potential to help the team most whould be who makes the team.

by Wizard Imp on Dec 12, 2009 9:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Whoever has the potential to help the team most should be who makes the team.

by Wizard Imp on Dec 12, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks to MLB + MLBPA

For creating a situation that perfectly illustrates the sunk cost fallacy: guaranteed contracts to washed-up players.

by JRoth95 on Dec 12, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

If you don't want to pay guaranteed money to washed-up players...

…then don’t sign washed-up players.

Seems simple enough to me. I’m not sure why the MLBPA should be in the business of saving unwise GMs from themselves.

by Vlad on Dec 14, 2009 9:39 AM EST up reply actions  

At the time I wrote, Cedeno was unsigned

He could have gone to arb, gotten whatever, and still have been cut before the season, with the Pirates on the hook for a fraction of it. So, not sunk.

by azibuck on Dec 13, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions  

That makes no sense. Cedeno’s a better SS and a better hitter. The money’s too small to trump that.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Cedeno is not a better hitter

Except with the Pirates in 2009. Other than that, you’re really, really wrong. Even with last year’s down year for Vazquez and exceptional (for him) year for Cedeno, their career OPS+ are 83 and 61. It’s not even marginally close.

by azibuck on Dec 11, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions  

After seeing Vasquez in Texas last year

I was quite surprised he hit so poorly for the Pirates. Hopefully he’ll have a bounce back year.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 11, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry

I had no idea Vazquez had underperformed so deeply last year (I also missed the reverse-platoon split, but that’s hard to spot with a part-timer).

That said, isn’t the consensus that Vazquez is no longer a viable starting SS? I don’t much like the idea of relying on Crosby and Vazquez for SS (with Bix in the wings) – Crosby strikes me as possibly too old to start 150 games at SS, and, again, my understanding is that Vazquez shouldn’t start more than a couple dozen games at SS.

by JRoth95 on Dec 12, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Vasquez is quite bad defensively wherever he plays. Looking over his overall numbers, it looks like his offense with Texas in 2008 is more the outlier. I wouldn’t have any problem ditching him if there are better options.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 12, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait…now we want to see Young at 3B?

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

it’s not like he’s talking long term here. if alvarez is called up that would bump DY to 3rd on the 3rd base depth chart. what he brings in pinch hitting to me is enough of an advantage over vazquez if he can manage even a barely competent 3b for a few months.

fwiw, 2 years ago we were playing mientkiewicz as a backup there.

by johnnycuff on Dec 10, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Not as a starter.

But on most teams, the more bat-heavy UT IF is primarily a 2B/3B, while the more glove-heavy UT IF is primarily a SS. Young is definitely closer to the former than the latter.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Don’t forget that Aki can also play 3B, so if something happens to Andy before Pedro is ready, Aki can move to 3B and DY or Crosby could play 2B. Crosby also played a little 3B in Oakland last year.

I would not be surprised if a Clement/Pearce platoon get the 1B job to start the season with Jones in RF until management is ready to promote Tabata. Then decisions will have to be made based on performance. At that time Raynor could be offered back, Pearce could be on his way out or a trade to open up a spot could be made.

If nothing else, we certainly have lots of options…something we have not had in the recent past..

by Brakeman8 on Dec 10, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I would

like to see Vazquez traded for something! Let’s be aggressive, and get something for him… maybe a reliever, maybe one of the arms not being protected, maybe Kevin Correia (:P o.o). But seriously, Crosby, Cedeno and Vazquez is too many no hit to carry, now that we have Aki and Crosby who can play 2nd and 3rd…. we can fill a SS hole somehow, if we need to.

by BurgherKing on Dec 10, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Now that he's not a SS anymore...

…I don’t see why anyone would trade for him.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

as a UT IF

he can play SS, in a pinch, and there are some no-hit people around who can still get jobs, so maybe we can get something for him- bag-of-balls!

by BurgherKing on Dec 10, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

None

of the high upside pitchers got picked?

by Danatural08 on Dec 10, 2009 10:58 AM EST reply actions  

Nope.

Teams this year look like they were going more for immediate value than future potential.

It varies season to season.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Very High BABIP

I was checking out Raynor’s Minor League Splits, and he managed to put up some pretty good BABIP in A/AA at .406/.401 (he must accumulate a lot of infield singles due to his speed, as his LD% is good, but not that good), while last year it dipped to .341 (still not terrible), as he hit more ground balls, and less fly balls.

He also has a slight platoon split over his career as well with an .867 OPS against LH and a .817 OPS against RH.

I guess the thinking here is that he’s a RH OF, plays all OF positions, and can act as a defensive caddie/PR, while also complimenting Moss and Young (although, to his credit, Moss hits lefties better than righties).

The questions I have are, do we still go after an OF like Ankiel, what do we do with Vasquez, and what type of environment is NO (I know the PCL is hitter friendly, but is that the case in New Orleans as well)?

by Maxwell.C on Dec 10, 2009 11:03 AM EST reply actions  

Fast guys typically carry a high BABIP...

…for exactly the reason you state, and Raynor is about as fast as it gets.

Within the context of the PCL, New Orleans is one of the better pitchers’ parks, enough so that it’s still a pitcher’s environment within the context of AAA as a whole. (Caveat – that’s using the 2008 numbers. I don’t know whether they made any changes before last season that’d affect the run environment.)

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Nope...

no significant changes to the park in New Orleans from 2008 to 2009. Only change was the team’s affiliation. Mets to Marlins.

by Thunder on Dec 10, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Boras...

reportedly wants three years and decent money for Ankiel. There will be no bargains for last seasons so I say we can all probably forget about Ankiel.

I think we just picked up our last position player of the off season in the Rule 5 draft.

by Slick1 on Dec 10, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you see anyone giving Ankiel three years and big $’s?

Me either. Agent posturing.

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed. 3 years is what it would take to sign him now, not in march when nobody has offered it to him.

by johnnycuff on Dec 10, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions  

You may be right, Mark. Of course, the Cubs have to give away Milton before they’ll do anything.

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

And you have to love that logic – if one highly touted overpaid and oft injured slugging outfielder that can’t play more than 90 games doesn’t work out, let’s try another!

by MarkInDallas on Dec 10, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed...

and never underestimate the Mets or Astros. The Stros just gave a 3 year contract to a relief pitcher.

by Slick1 on Dec 10, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Options?

Do Young or Moss have any options left? If so, then I think it’s a bit of a no-brainer to bring Raynor north with Moss/Young waiting in Indy in event of failure/injury.

If not, then I think the bar for Raynor is relatively high – not that Moss or Young are so valuable, but they’re both (marginal) MLB-grade players; I’d hate to throw them away for a guy who could, possibly, flop completely (not that I think he will; I’m just saying that if he looks overmatched in the spring, I’m not convinced we cut Moss or Young for him).

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 11:12 AM EST reply actions  

I'm pretty much positive neither has an option

I like the move and the player. Crosby is injury prone, Clement isn’t a guarantee, and really they are one injury away from Raynor getting a lot of PT. I hope they just take 6 RPs north, but I suspect they won’t do that.

by Slizeezyc on Dec 10, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

it's possible

since the 7th member of the pen has been a rule 5 pick in NH’s previous years they’ve essentially gone north with 6 relievers.

by johnnycuff on Dec 10, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Interesting take, but I think it’s more likely that they’ll like some NRIs enough to bring them north, even if they don’t seem all that great. Quantity vs. quality.

How many teams go north with 11 pitchers anymore?

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

A fair number.

I could see this happening.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks

I’ve been wondering. It was my impression that it was a vanishing policy, but the vp from here is so skewed….

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I hope it does

Moss would be no loss (heh), but I like Young as a bench guy and Pearce as a platoon partner for Clement. Of course, they could partly solve the problem by ditching Vazquez.

by WTM on Dec 10, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I wonder

If management would dump Vazquez and just pay him rather than trying to trade him.

by Slizeezyc on Dec 10, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I could see

Mgmt. trading Vasqueez and picking up a mill of the 2+ that’s left

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I doubt Vazquez is worth more than the $1 price we spent for Delwyn.

I’d love to see him gone, but like I said before…do we really want to be a Crosby injury away from Dr. Bixler on the MLB roster again?

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I can live with Bixler on the roster...

…temporarily as a backup. The problem is if he’s in a position where we need him to start.

We’ll see who the cat drags in for NRI depth at SS.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

i think we’d be lucky to dump him on anyone. not a lot of market for a guy that hit .230/.335/.279 last year and can’t play SS.

by johnnycuff on Dec 10, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

My plan now would be to have a bench of Raynor, Moss, Crosby, Jaramillo, Pearce, and then try to find another infielder (only keeping Young and Vazquez on last resort).

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I like that

Except I truly believe in DY as a pinch hitter. It’s a rare, but real, skill, and given how cheaply we got him and how cheaply we can keep him, I’m inclined to keep him around.

To me Pearce is the not-very-valuable spare part.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Young has 115 career PA as a PH.

I think it’s a little early to say that he’s got a “real”, “rare” skill in that area. Especially since most of his success as a PH seems to have come from an unsustainably-high BABIP.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, I wasn’t being sloppy when I used the term “believe” – I can’t prove it at all, but I think that Young is one of those guys who, from whatever suite of talent and approach, is effective as a PH. I said “rare” and “real” about the talent in general – I think it exists, but know that some don’t.

IOW, there are 2 propositions up there:
1. PH is a rare and real skill.
2. DY has it.

1 is something I feel strongly about, and it would take a lot to change my mind. 2 is something I think is true, but will admit I can’t prove, and that I could be convinced otherwise.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think a team...

in the Pirates position can afford to give way roster spots for a pinch hitter. It would be one thing if Young had power or could play defense but he does neither. I really don’t understand the love affair some fans have for Young (that wasn’t directed at you Roth…just some fans in general).

by Slick1 on Dec 10, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

On the contrary

I think that a team like the Pirates are in a great position to do that. Between Moss, Pearce, and DY, none of them will visibly affect the outcome of 2010. Of the 3, I’m most interested in DY because, if I’m right, then he has value for us when we get better and as a trade piece. I basically don’t believe that the other 2 have much upside – maybe Moss hits enough to be a reliable 4th OF, maybe Pearce regains his stroke enough to be the last man on the bench (no-glove 1B/RFs are a nickel a dozen). But a Lenny Harris gives you somebody you can send to the plate in a high leverage situation and have an expectation that he won’t be overmatched (league average for PHs is ~.225 – you don’t have to have a great average as a PH to add value).

But hey, this is a tiny issue, and DY certainly may bust as well.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Since when is Pearce...

…a “no-glove” at 1B? He’s got enough genuine flaws in his game – no need to go making up extra ones.

Over Lenny Harris’s entire career, he hit .264/.317/.337 as a PH. I don’t see a lot of added value there relative to a league-average PH – particularly when you consider that Harris’s PH ability was his only bankable skill.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Vlad

Thanks for the informative comments.

Did you sleep last night? Somehow I have this image of you pacing the floor in your room and repeating the names of possible picks for the Pirates.

by patthatt on Dec 10, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Like a baby.

With visions of a power arm dancing in my dreams.

Raynor’s a pretty good pick too, though.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I like the idea that we can go through

the season for a change without hiding a Rule V guy in the ’pen.

We’ve already got some vets that we need to hide from time to time.

by patthatt on Dec 10, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions  

.040 of AVG adds no value?

The equivalent for an everyday player is north of .300. And DY is certainly more useful in the field than Harris (plus more pop).

I was disappointed by Pearce at 1B. When he started playing everyday he assured us that we wouldn’t see a “clown show” there, but he seemed mediocre at best. So maybe “no glove” is too strong, but my point was that it’s not as if he’s a guy you want in the field, if only he hits well enough. He’s a guy who has to hit in order to justify playing 1B.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

UZR has Pearce negative at 1B

Far from definitive for all sorts of reasons, but certainly not sign that he’s a plus defender.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, Harris hit .264...

…but it was an empty .264, with no walks and no power.

By way of comparison, Brandon Moss over his career to date is a .265/.306/.441 hitter as a PH. You can throw a lot of era adjustment in there without making up for 100+ points of SLG…

Craig Wilson, probably the most successful Pirate PH of recent years, hit .213/.315/.565 in that role, including a HR every 10 PA.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

First of all, B-R has his career PH line as .244/.277/.422 over 47 PA, with an unsustainable BABIP of .370*. And with a sample size that small, his single HR takes his SLG from .333 to .422.

Compare OPS+ as PH, and DY is at 114, BM at 98.

I realize that you were talking about Harris’ empty average, which I already conceded – I only brought up Harris because he was a guy who, over a long career, showed himself significantly better than most MLB players at pinch hitting. If DY shares that ability – with a decent amount of pop himself – then he’s got value as a player, even if he can’t be an everyday guy. It’s possible that Moss will show that ability, but right now the only real evidence for it is a single HR last August.

  • DY also has a high BABIP as PH.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Huh.

Sorry, accidentally clicked on Moss’s ’09 PH splits, not his career ones.

The larger point stands, though. Over Harris’s career, he really wasn’t significantly better than most MLB players at pinch-hitting. He acquired that reputation on the strength of a couple of strong individual performances, but the overall track record was mediocre (kind of like Jack Morris’s rep as a postseason stud).

Harris’s career OPS as a PH was .654. Here’s league average PH production during his career. I’m starting with his second year in the bigs, ending with his second-to-last, and going in intervals of every three years, just to give a feel for the general average. I didn’t look at any of these before I pulled/listed them:

1989: .591
1992: .610
1995: .700
1998: .628
2001: .662
2004: .660

So he’s getting you what, maybe fifteen points’ worth of raw OPS over a league average bench player? That’s a pretty tiny edge. And how many times is he being used as a PH? Maybe 50 per season? How many runs is that 15-point OPS edge worth in a sample that small?

by Vlad on Dec 11, 2009 9:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Point granted on Harris

As I said, I really only brought him up as a prominent example of someone who, over a large sample, proved to be measurably better than average at PH. Incidentally, it’s not as if he had power as a starter but not as a PH – the low OPS is a result of his talent level, not some concession to the role.

I say that because, if DY is a better-than-average PH, then his natural power (which isn’t great, but is far better than Harris’s) should follow. To be clear: Lenny Harris was a poor hitter, but better than average pinch hitter. DY is an almost exactly average hitter, but as a PH he’s OPS+ 114. I can’t find the OPS+ for PHs as a whole, but it’s below 100. So a guy like DY is, in fact, valuable off the bench. If he couldn’t field at all, then he’d be more marginally useful, but he’s not going to kill you at 2B or RF for the last couple innings of a game. At which point I’m not sure why it hurts the Pirates to carry him (if he were taking up roster space from someone clearly more useful, sure, but I don’t buy “clearly” for Moss or Pearce).

BTW, I’m genuinely surprised to see so much variation in league OPS – my brief research gave me the impression that, just as league AVG is pretty consistent year to year, so was league PH AVG. I’m not sure why looking at OPS introduced so much variation. I know it’s a (much) smaller sample than league AVG, but still – you’re looking at something like 4500 PH ABs/year.

by JRoth95 on Dec 12, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I should've been more clear.

That’s not league OPS – that’s league OPS in PA as a PH. Much smaller sample, so much higher year-to-year variation than league OPS as a whole. I never really looked at year-to-year BA trends, so I don’t know much about that.

Raw league OPS in the Harris years:

1989: .678
1992: .684
1995: .739
1998: .741
2001: .756
2004: .756

Still a big shift, but not as much year-to-year jitter.

I’m fine with Young making the 2010 roster, but as I’ve said elsewhere, I think he and Vazquez should be fighting for one job, as the non-glove UT IF.

by Vlad on Dec 14, 2009 9:48 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm Sure

Moss has no options left. And I’m pretty sure the only reason we were able to get DY for a song was that he had no options left as well.

About 98% sure neither have options left…

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Figured as much

I’ll note that, between Jones, Crosby, and Clement, that’s 3 guys who can play 1B – I wouldn’t want to be Pearce right now.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Tactically, using Crosby as a 1B is a terrible enough idea...

…that I doubt he sees much time there (insofar as that’d leave us with no bench players capable of SS). But since Moss can also play 1B, your overall count of potential 1Bs is correct.

To make the team at this point, Pearce probably needs either a sufficiently killer spring himself that they’d be scared to lose him on waivers, or a good enough spring from Clement to win the starting role (with Pearce as the short half of a platoon) and a bad enough spring training from Moss that they need Jones in RF.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, I think Crosby’s last on the depth chart for 1B (well, I don’t think I knew Moss could play there) – he starts maybe once a month unless he turns into some sort of masher and they want to get him PAs – but my point is that he makes Pearce quite expendable.

I think your assessment is about right.

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

If Oakland was a NL team, Crosby would have never played 1B. He played 1B because he could field and Oakland could put Jack Cust or some other defensive clod at DH. Crosby at 1B in the NL should only be in an emergency.

by Brakeman8 on Dec 10, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Moss has 41 games there in the minors...

…plus two in the majors. And it’s 1B – pretty much anybody can handle it to one degree or another. Especially when that player’s an above-average defender at another position, as Moss is.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Right

It had occurred to me that 1B was certainly a position that someone else could play; I just didn’t know that Moss had actually done it.

In general, my take on 1B is that it’s sufficiently unique in its defensive requirements* that it’s not a given that anyone can play there without at least some practice/training/teaching. IOW, I bet Cutch could play a mean 1B, but only after working on it for a certain amount of time – I suspect he’d play it poorly if he simply had to be moved there mid-game with no warning.

  • Basically 2 things: guys winging the ball at you from all sorts of angles and with all sorts of funky spin while you’re not really allowed to move to adjust to the ball, and dealing with the bag – pitchers work on covering first for a month every spring of their adult lives, and yet still regularly fuck it up. Granted, they’re in a footrace, but it’s something they practice and still struggle with. I’ll admit that this sense partly comes from my own experience – I’m an average-plus defender at basically every position (my arm’s weak, but I get to balls and catch them and know where to throw them), but I struggle when I’m occasionally put at 1B, even though I’ve played catch more than any other baseball-related activity – it’s weirdly different

by JRoth95 on Dec 10, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Morticia: Children, do you think we love the baby more than we love you?
Wednesday, Pugsley: Yes.
Morticia: Do you think that when a new baby arrives, one of the other children has to die?
Wednesday, Pugsley: Yes.

by WTM on Dec 10, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I heart the Astros offseason

Matt Lindstrom (prospects plus a few mil), Brandon Lyon ($15 mil), Gary Majewski and now Pedro Feliz. Ed Wade must be the giddiest person in the city Houston. I thought they were broke? Guess they can find money for replaceable middle relievers and no-OBP third basemen.

Also, I’m looking forward to seeing what Raynor can do. Sounds like the kid has some skills (speed, defense, can even take a walk here or there).

by Chad Bahamas on Dec 10, 2009 1:00 PM EST reply actions  

Why can't the Pirates

show they are serious about winning like that?

:-)

by MarkInDallas on Dec 10, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

There’s a GM rating thing on ESPN.com that I filled out yesterday. I can’t believe that some people think Omar Minaya and Ed Wade are in the upper half of all GM’s.

By the way, after you fill it out it has the rank to that point of all GM’s as voted to that point. NH was next to the bottom (29 out of 30). Talk about the intelligence of the average baseball fan…

by God Loves on Dec 10, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

NH is still 29th, but does have 14 1st place votes now. That’s about mid pack.

by Brakeman8 on Dec 10, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

It's interesting

There are a lot of new guys that you can’t really evaluate yet, but it does seem there are far fewer awful GMs than there were just a few years back. Sabean, Wade, Moore, maybe Colletti?

by biggyv on Dec 10, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

No "maybe" about it.

Colletti definitely belongs in that company. He inherited a great situation when he took over, and he’s been running it into the ground ever since.

by Vlad on Dec 10, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

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