Pirates Pick John Raynor in Rule 5
by Charlie on Dec 10, 2009 2:00 PM EST
73 comments
The Pirates have selected Marlins outfielder John Raynor with the second pick in the Rule 5 draft. Raynor struggled at Class AAA New Orleans last year, but he had an impressive minor league profile before that, posting nice averages and OBPs, even in 2008 after skipping a level by heading straight from the South Atlantic League to AA. He's also blazingly fast, but he's not a slap hitter--he hit 13 homers in both 2007 and 2008, although he only had six last year.
Finding information about Marlins prospects is tricky, because no one cares about the Marlins, let alone their minor leaguers. But my guess is that Raynor can handle center pretty well. He's fast, he wins some praise for his defense, and Baseball America guessed in 2007 that he would wind up being the Marlins' starting center fielder.
The downsides with Raynor are that he strikes out a bit too much for a prospect of his type, doesn't have a ton of power and is coming off a pretty bad season.
Raynor came up all the time in Rule 5 discussions before the draft, but I didn't see this coming because, well, the Pirates didn't really need outfielders and, in particular, they're really short on relief pitching. So they must have liked Raynor a lot. It's certainly possible that Raynor won't stick, but if he does, it could mean even less playing time for Brandon Moss. As it stands now, Lastings Milledge and Garrett Jones will probably man the corner outfield spots, with Jeff Clement playing first. Moss hasn't hit as well as Delwyn Young, and time will tell if he plays defense as well as Raynor, so if Raynor makes the team Moss could be a spare part without much of a use. And if the Bucs sign one of the outfielders they're interested in, like Rick Ankiel or Xavier Nady... well, in that case, my guess is that Raynor would be sent back to the Marlins, but if he isn't then constructing the bench could get really tricky.
Overall, though, Raynor's performance record before 2009 makes him an interesting pick. If he can recover some of the ability to hit for average he's shown in the past, then he can be a valuable bench player.
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Mostly off-topic wrt Crosby signing
Now that it’s official, I think they should give Crosby #71 (does anyone wear it?) instead of #87. That would be fun-er!
On the Rule V open thread,
I see many comments about John Raynor’s skills set and projections for his future.
Charlie says “[f]inding information about Marlins prospects is tricky, because no one cares about the Marlins, let alone their minor leaguers.”
So here’s a young MLB name for you guys: Brett Gardner.
What do you think?
Charlie
I got a good laugh at your honesty about the Marlins.
I just wonder if they write the same things about the Bucs on Marlins’ blogs.
Actually, I really think it’s apples and oranges. I’ve done searches for very basic info about Marlins players in the past and come up frustrated. Here we have WTM’s site, plus several good blogs, and you can find good information about any player who might be considered a prospect.
I'm thinking the Pirates will go with
14 position players and 11 pitchers as things stand now to start the 2010 season.
Here’s my list of the position guys:
Doumit, Jaramillo, Crosby, Cedeno, Clement, Iwamura, LaRoche, Vazquez, Young, Jones, McCutchen, Milledge, Moss, and Raynor.
Every NL team whose 09 opening day roster I could find went with 12 pitchers. This isn’t standard operating procedure, especially with a team that had the worst bullpen of 08 and second worst of 09. That’s the problem with a position heavy roster.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
Adam
It’s all major speculation at this point with potential injuries, flops and all, but if there are no real changes to the pool of available position players for the Bucs, who do we leave off the roster for the 12th pitcher? Moss? Vazquez? Young?
Could be any of those three.
Could also see it being Pearce.
The tricky part is going to be if they decide to carry Walker as well…
It’s hard to see what they do with Walker, but the same question applies in AAA. I understand the idea that he can/will learn additional positions in Indy, but the bottom line is that he could play 8 positions plus long reliever, but if he can’t hit ML pitching, it won’t matter.
I realize that, arguably, he hasn’t shown that he can hit AAA pitching either, but it’s not as if there’ll be more room for him on the ML roster come July. The answer is for him to hit so well that they have no choice, but how many guys really force their way up the depth charts? I mean, Neil’d have to OPS, what, .950 at Indy to get him called up and starting in front of Andy (barring injury or a complete Andy collapse). I think he could post a walk-heavy .875 and the best he’d get is a bench job and one start a week.
We have a lot...
of position flexibility. Doumit can play catcher, first, and right, Crosby and Vasquez can play short, second, and third, Clement could play first and catcher, Iwamura and Laroche could both play second and third, Young could play second, right, and left, Walker could probably play third, second, first, catcher, and the corner outfield spots, and Raynor could play anywhere in the outfield. My guess is Moss is cut.
I think
you’re assigning a lot of playing flexibility to players that SHOULDN’T be playing in some of the spots you’re attributing their abilities.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 11, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Pearce
People are quick to write off Pearce, but he really would fit nicely as a platoon 1B with Clement or even Jones. Although Jones had a breakout season, he still hit poorly against LHP. I’ll admit that Pearce could be the odd man out, but I really believe the final roster spot comes down to Moss or Vazquez if they want to keep Raynor.
I would like to see us keep Pearce...
for the reasons you mentioned. We are pretty heavy on lefties.
We've seen enough of Steve Pearce.
There are teams in Japan that could use his services.
He's hit well against lefties...
and doesn’t have that many more PA’s than Clement. Clement has a .703 OPS in 243 PA’s. Pearce has a .696 in 378 PA’s. He has a .919 OPS against lefties in 98 AB’s. He seems like a nice platoon guy and I’d much rather have him than Vasquez or Young.
considering garret jones has a .646 OPS against lefties in the majors, pearce would make sense as part of a platoon with him.
Can't understand the frustration with Pearce
A Jones/Pearce platoon makes perfect sense. Jones had a .203 BA last year against lefties and Pearce lit them up.
Apparently
He was not 100% healthy last year. At east he could be effective in a platoon.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 11, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions
Walker
Here and in the other Rule 5 thread, it seems like there’s a consensus that Walker’s not going to make the big league club out of spring. With Alvarez at AAA, what do you all think happens to Walker?
Walker making the team...
…is unlikely but possible. He’d need to have a good spring.
Failing that, I think he starts getting looks at other positions at AAA, maybe 2B or RF, while waiting for an opportunity.
Oh yeah those Marlins
“Finding information about Marlins prospects is tricky, because no one cares about the Marlins, let alone their minor leaguers.”
That’s why their farm system is annually top 10 according to “Baseball America”, right?
Which team has actually been relevant from time to time over the past decade?
Can’t wait to see the Bucs trade McCutchen & Alvarez for a washing machine in three years.
Relevance has little to do with whether people care about the team. Attendance trends say that the Marlins will draw slightly fewer fans than the Pirates when the Marlins are competitive, and significantly fewer when the Marlins aren’t competitive, and that’s with the Pirates not being competitive in any of those years and Miami having about 3 million more people in the metro area. It’s probably fair to say that the people of Miami care very little about the Marlins.
Bozo.....
He didn’t say the Marlins suck. And he said many times the Pirates suck. He said no one cares.
If you care so f…ing much, go to a game. The Marlins finished 30th (last) in attendance two years ago and 29th last year, barely outdrawing the A’s. The Pirates outdrew them both years. Take reading comprehension and go post somewhere else. Jackass.
I hope it’s a Maytag. Those things are damn reliable.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on Dec 11, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
I was afraid Marlins fans would come here and disrupt things because of Charlie's comment
And I was right, both of them did.
by azibuck on Dec 11, 2009 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry if this has already been posted, but this is from BA’s Marlins’ chat prior to the 2008 season:
Q: Al from NC asks:
Where is John Raynor on the Marlin’s prospect list?
A: Mike Berardino: Just missed the top 10. Had a great year at Greensboro and has the speed, instincts and bat potential to keep moving up. I’m just wary of any big offensive years at Greensboro after some of the FSL washouts (Restko, McCann, etc) we’ve seen lately.
And this is from one year ago:
Q: Shawn from Rochester asks:
Did John Raynor end up falling just outside the Top 10? What is his future ceiling? Is there any chance he can make the team out of Spring Training and contribute this year?
A: Mike Berardino: Raynor is right there in the 12-13 range, I believe. You’d like to see the strikeouts come down, but he has game-changing speed on the bases and a good approach to everything he does. He definitely has a shot to split time with Hermida in left out of spring training. He could be a Reed Johnson type with more speed.
And from a month ago:
Josh G (Sacto, CA): How close was John Raynor?
Mike Berardino: Fairly close, but he dropped back a bit this year. Didn’t use his speed as effectively as in the past.
This is in a strong system.
In order to make room for their Rule 5 pick...
…the A’s just dropped Santiago Casilla (formerly known as Jario Garcia). He seems like the kind of pen arm we like to target (FB averaged 94.5 last year, with 4.49 career BB/9), so keep him on your radar screen.
maybe this means the pirates don’t sign an outfielder and spend on pitching (duchscherer, putz, etc.) instead? seems like a wiser choice to me than to pay for an OF and go cheaper on the pitching…
by Captain Easychord on Dec 10, 2009 6:08 PM EST reply actions
If they sign.....
Ankiel, Nady or someone of the like I am going to be very disappointed. Unless it’s a one year deal for under $3 million, which Ankiel isn’t signing for.
With Cutch, Milledge, Jones, Raynor, Moss (and Young, Van Every and Tabata) there is no reason to give 300-500 at bats to one of those guys. Serious mistake in my book.
Found this over at Rum Bunters
I guess it’s only natural for us to say “Yay!” and for them to say, “Meh.” But as it says in the post, they have OF depth in the upper minors (Stanton, Cousins, and Peterson) while we have Jose Tabata (who won’t be available until June, and that’s if he’s ready).
I think that’s a fair assessment of Raynor. Regardless of his speed, it’s hard to get excited about a non-masher with contact issues who wasn’t young for his league and isn’t a special defensive player. I guess he could be an OK reserve, but I’d prefer someone with a higher upside in the Rule 5 draft.
I think he has decent upside...
28 8 13 (2007) A (2B, 3B HR) for .948 OPS
29 6 14 (2008) AA (2b, 3B, HR) for .890 OPS
He had a down year in 2009 but in addition to admittedly learning how to adjust in AAA he also dealt with an injury I believe. He has displayed the ability to hit for extra bases throughout his career so I wouldn’t throw him into the Nyjre Morgan role. He has much more upside than that and the number of 2Bs and 3Bs suggest that he could develop some power. Also, I don’t know where you got that he isn’t a “special” defensive player. He is supposed to have incredible range and good instincts. His only weakness in the field is a below average throwing arm which would relegate him to LF. In Pittsburgh that isn’t a big deal given the cavernous LF at PNC.
Good points, but I disagree. Raynor’s K issues will depress his batting and on-base averages, and, even if his power does develop, I don’t think anyone sees him hitting more than 12-to-18 homers over a full season _ especially at PNC Park. Does .245 with 15 homers cut it as an everyday corner OF?
As for his defense, I can only go by what I read and I’ve never read that he’s a great defensive outfielder. I also consider Larry Beinfest an excellent talent evaluator. It’s telling when he prefers Jai Miller and Scott Cousins.
I’ll be rooting for Raynor, but I wouldn’t have chosen him. Hope I’m completely wrong and he is good enough to be an everyday player. At the very least, I do think he’ll eventually play in the majors, but as a backup.
I think .245 is aiming low.
He had a very low BABIP last year relative to his career norms (which were high, but not abnormally so for a fast runner), which suggests that you shouldn’t take the 2009 .255 at face value. Plus some credit for playing in a pitchers’ park. Plus some injury credit for a recovery period from the hand injury, potentially.
I don’t think he’ll be a .300 hitter in the majors due to the contact issues, but I think it’d be hard for a guy with his speed to hit much less than .270. And since he’s got just enough pop to keep pitchers honest, we shouldn’t see more than the normal promotion-related decline in his OBP.
As far as defense goes, he’s not a great defender right now, but he’s got the tools to be better than he is. That’s one of the reasons I keep comparing him to Nyjer. Right now, he’s doing the same kind of thing that Nyjer did when he first came up, where he’s levereaging his speed for range, but doesn’t get particularly good jumps or take particularly accurate routes. Those problems are sometimes correctable with reps and instruction, and if so, he’s got the basic physical tools to be a plus defender, though the arm is always going to be an issue.
It's the Rule 5 Draft......
We aren’t going to find players without flaws or who have clearly visible upside. That’s why these guys are available.
Clearly visible .......
I guess means different things to different people. I liked both picks and still do, but the majority of people posting here wanted both guys sent back in May after their terrible starts and complete lack of command and control.
My point you basically have to be a crack addict if you have monster talent to be available for this draft.
My official stance is that Raynor looks like Moss Lite, and as with the June draft I would have rather seen one of the pitchers come to us. But I’ve never seen him in person and the Pirates staff has, so we’ll see how right they are…
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 12, 2009 3:30 AM EST up reply actions
I just don't see the Moss comparison.
Raynor is a right-handed hitter with plus speed, while Moss is a left-handed hitter with average speed. Raynor has good defensive tools but needs work on refining them into skills, while Moss has average defensive tools but has made himself into a plus defender anyway. Raynor has a below-average arm, while Moss has a plus arm. Raynor was a second-day senior sign out of college, while Moss was a first-day pick out of high school.
Is it just because they’re both white guys? What’s the deal?
They are both outfielders and they both strike out. And they both won’t win us a championship, dammit.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 12, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
I laughed at the marlins joke
I’ll take being unpopular if it comes with two WS titles in the past twelve years.
And good luck with Raynor, I had a lot of hope for him after his AA numbers in ’08 but his 2009 washout is kind of a mystery. At the very worst you have a decent fourth outfielder and an excellent pinch runner.
But lucky for us...
we don’t need to even have a winning season in the past seventeen years to outdraw a team with two championships in the past twelve years. Could you imagine if Dave Littlefield had run the Marlins? Actually, I take that back, you’re the lucky ones.
I don't believe it was a joke...
just a blanket statement about the team. No matter how good the Marlins are they have a hard time garnering interest in the team. That’s all.
Basing how popular a team is or isn't solely on attendance numbers is kind of dumb
The team is not the problem at all, it’s the stadium. Nobody wants to drive an hour north of Miami to watch a game in a football stadium. Add the seemingly 50/50 chance of a rain delay every single night, it’s basically playing russian roulette. The TV ratings down here are also surprisingly good, so the fans are there. The deal for a new stadium to opened up in 2012 pretty much saved the franchise, it was desperately needed.
I don't disagree....
I hope you guys get a new stadium. With the success the Marlins have had since being in the league I hope they get evey opportunity to establish themsevles without having to worry about paying the bills. I lived in Flordia for two years and I can tell you that in every sport but basketball, the stadium was filled nearly 50% with visiting fans. That includes the Dolphins. Florida is a very transient state and I think that more than anytihing is the reason why there seems to be little interest in the Marlins. That being said you cannot argue with the success they have had as a young organization. I truly hope they get the support they deserve with a new stadium because they continually exceed expectation and are a fun team to watch year in and year out.
They are getting a new stadium, right?
Isn’t that a done deal? 2012 or something I think? Site of the Orange bowl and the team will be renamed Miami Marlins. That’s what I remember and I’m too lazy to use the Google.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 12, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Compared with Jeff Salazar
who batted an amazing .043 in 2009, I’ll take John Raynor.
Of course, I’m assuming with his speed he can play CF and that his arm is strong enuff for him to be a defensive replacement for Jones/Pearce in RF.
He probably can't play RF.
But it wouldn’t be a big deal to shift the LF (Milledge or whomever) into RF, and put Raynor in LF.
P-G: Both Vazquez and Young “locked in” to the bench as of now along with Crosby/Jaramillo , Moss vs. Raynor for one spot, and presumably Pearce vs. Clement. Least that’s they way they see it now. Meh.
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