I've never written a fanpost before, and I know that fans' trade ideas are generally stupid, but in light of reports that the Blue Jays are interested in Doumit and that the Phillies might be exploring three-way deals to land Halladay, I thought I'd muse a little bit on possible trade scenarios between the three teams. Here's what I came up with:
Phillies give up: Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Dominic Brown - get: Halladay and Ohlendorf
Blue Jays give up: Halladay and Brett Cecil - get: Doumit, Happ, and Brown
Here's why I think it makes sense. For the Phillies, they have an amazing Championship window over the next 2-3 years that they need to take advantage of. Halladay (plus extension, I'm assuming) helps with that. They get Ohlendorf to round out their rotation with a cheap, decent, back-of-the-rotation starter. Obviously, it would hurt them to give up Brown, Drabek, and Happ, but they get to keep Michael Taylor who's closer to the majors than Brown, and having Halladay and Ohlendorf, while more expensive than Drabek and Happ, is a better suited tandem for a win-now approach.
For the Blue Jays, they get a good, cheap catcher (who's probably worth Halladay straight-up, considering the contract situations, if the Blue Jays aren't going to re-sign Halladay), a top-tier outfield prospect in Brown, and a good, cheap starter who's under team control for 5 more years. I think Happ's probably slightly more valuable a commodity than Cecil, and Doumit plus a top prospect is a good return for Halladay. This pacakage is about even with the possible Yankees offer of Hughes/Montero and better than the Angels possible offer of Saunders, Aybar, and Bourjos. I imagine the Blue Jays would like to keep Halladay from the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rays.
For the Pirates, they get two top-tier pitching prospects for Doumit and Ohlendorf. That's a very fair exchange and fits their rebuilding plan.
Based on Chone projections, 4m/win free agent rates, and 10% yearly salary inflation, I have the Phillies giving up 51m and getting 23m (plus a possible Halladay extension), the Blue Jays giving up 17 and getting 46, and the Pirates giving up 23 to get 22. The Blue Jays get the most value because they're trading the big star, the Phillies give up the most because they're getting him. The Pirates break even, but shift the value toward a possible window of contention in 2012-13.
What do you guys think?