Fangraphs's take on the Capps non-tender

The money quote:

What makes the changeup effective for most pitchers is the difference in speeds between it and the fastball. At 6.5 MPH in 2009, this difference was, unsurprisingly, the lowest of his career. It had a very noticeable effect on the pitch’s effectiveness, as measured by our pitch type values. From 2006-2008, the pitch had ranged in effectiveness from -3.21 to +3.12 runs per 100 pitches. In 2009, it plummeted to -5.35 runs per 100. It appears that Capps’s changeup lost much of its effectiveness after it no longer retained the 8.5 MPH difference that led to the +3.12 run value per 100 pitches in 2009.

This is a good point, and one I had not considered.

about 2 years ago Vlad 7 comments 0 recs |

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Quite a combination

A straighter fast ball, poorer command, and less difference between the fast ball and the change. Not a good mix.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Dec 14, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions

Weird

With his FB if anything faster than in the past, why would his changeup be getting closer? I thought that a changeup is basically a FB thrown with a tighter grip, but why would it speed up like that?

But yeah, no mystery as to why he was getting hit hard, just a question of why his pitches have gotten less effective when his raw strength has obviously returned post-injury.

by JRoth95 on Dec 14, 2009 12:29 PM EST reply actions

Maybe he was just overthrowing everything?

by Vlad on Dec 14, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

Could be

But isn’t that something Kerrigan could/should have caught?

I’ll be really pissed if all it takes to bring him back to form is taking 2 mph off his FB.

by JRoth95 on Dec 14, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

Knowing what's wrong...

…and convincing the player to do what needs to be done in order to fix what’s wrong are sometimes two very different tasks.

The changeup is very much a “feel” pitch. Hard to learn, hard to teach.

by Vlad on Dec 14, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

Have we eliminated the possibility that in 2009 he was just a fat tub of goo?

And that he was unwilling to address the issue this off-season?

by WstCstBucco on Dec 14, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

I highly doubt this is the problem

Is it more likely that the main problem is the pitch he throws 5% of the time or the one he throws 80% of the time?

The issue is obviously that his fastball has lost its movement over the past 2 years. He lost 1 inch vertical movement and 1.5 inches of horizontal movement over his 2007 fastballs.

This translates into a steadily rising tRA over that time. Why is that and can it be changed? I guess Kerrigan didn’t have a lot of confidence that it was going to change.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 14, 2009 5:26 PM EST reply actions