Possible Rule 5 Pick: George Kontos
by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 2, 2009 4:39 AM EST
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PrintI was just reading through the comments on Vlad's excellent post about potential Rule 5 picks, and I got to thinking that one guy the Pirates might actually consider is George Kontos of the Yankees. This isn't a pick I'm necessarily endorsing--I haven't done enough research yet, but the guy I'm most interested in so far is the Rays' Aneury Rodriguez. But I think the Pirates will think hard about Kontos.
You might recall that Kontos was one of two pitchers (the other was Phil Coke) who were rumored to be included in the original Xavier Nady trade, along with Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Tabata. It was widely reported that the Pirates would get those four guys, but then, for reasons that vary depending on who's telling the story, Daniel McCutchen and Jeff Karstens wound up in place of Kontos and Coke.
This is important not only because it suggests that the Pirates are already well aware of Kontos, but because many players acquired by Neal Huntington in minor transactions seem to come from the Yankees and Mariners organizations. (I'm not the first to make this point, although I can't remember who brought it up initially.) After acquiring Tabata, Ohlendorf, No Relation McCutchen and Karstens in the Nady trade, Huntington also picked up pitchers Eric Hacker, Steven Jackson and Anthony Claggett from the Yankees. And after getting Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Brett Lorin, Nate Adcock and Aaron Pribanic from Seattle for Jack Wilson and Ian Snell, the Pirates also plucked Justin Thomas and Chris Jakubauskas from the Mariners organization.
This makes sense, in a way--the Nady/Marte and Wilson/Snell deals were fairly major, so the Pirates probably dedicated a fair amount of time to scouting the Yankees' and Mariners' AA and AAA teams and coming up with lists of guys they liked.
Now there's a Yankees prospect who's been connected to the Bucs before who's available in the Rule 5. The rub is that Kontos went down with Tommy John surgery in late June and may not be ready to pitch until this June or so. For the Rule 5, though, that may actually be a positive. The Pirates can keep him off their active roster until July, after he's rehabbed at AAA for a few weeks, then put him in the big-league bullpen for a couple months at the end of the season to pitch in incredibly low-pressure games. They'd have to keep him on the big-league roster for part of 2011, too, but by then he'd probably be fully ready--Kontos was probably pitching well enough as a minor league starter before being injured to warrant a spot in a big league 'pen. Maybe the injury will prevent the Pirates from considering Kontos, but if they really like him, it might be less of an impediment than you'd think.
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I would
love to see that happen but who knows when it comes to Rule 5. I get confused on all that junk. Anyways i would love to see the Pirates go after pitching more than anything so no matter who it is i will enjoy it.
Kontos wouldn't necessarily be my first choice, either.
But I think he’s a good balance of current value and upside, assuming a full recovery from TJ. My main reservations about him at the time of the trade were health and maturity. The former has kind of been mooted by the injury, and the latter is less significant now that he’s another year further away from his arrest (a drunk and disorderly at a bar, IIRC).
The Yankees have a couple of decent options available this year. In addition to Kontos, I also think Kanekoa Texeira (sinker/slider reliever with a high groundball rate) would be a decent bet to succeed if picked, though as a pure reliever his ultimate value is somewhat limited.
If we hesitated . . .
to acquire every player who has acted in a manner that would be considered drunk and disorderly in a bar, we would be stuck with slim, slim pickings. Kontos is just unlucky enough to have gotten caught. I’m sure there are 20 or so for each one charged. Guys who are 22 or whatever do silly things. It happens. In my opinion, it takes something significantly more than a drunk and disorderly to stain someone’s character.
It's a bigger deal with a very young guy...
…because you don’t have the context to know at that point whether it’s going to become a life pattern (like Bobo Newsom), or whether it’s just an isolated incident. Since Kontos has apparently kept his nose clean in the intervening period, it’s a much smaller concern (to me, at least).
The details on the arrest, if anyone cares:
A Tampa Yankees pitcher was arrested early Thursday after deputies say he refused to leave the Green Iguana Bar & Grill on Anderson Road. George N. Kontos, 21, of 4902 N MacDill Ave. faces charges of trespassing and obstructing an officer after deputies say he tried to re-enter the bar after he was asked to leave, said Hillsborough sheriff’s spokeswoman Debbie Carter. A deputy tried to escort Kontos off the restaurant’s property about 2 a.m., but Kontos kept pulling away from the deputy, who then arrested him, Carter said. He was released from jail after posting $1,000 bail. -St. Petersburg Times
Obviously
You’re joking, but nevertheless, I don’t think it’s worth completely overlooking — especially when it comes to a developing player.
As for you Scranton, I already knew you were an aimless drunk, so it wouldn’t change my opinion about you.
A nice list up on Baseball America...
of potential Rule 5 selections. It’s subscriber view only.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2010/269212.html
This guys intrigues me:
“Arquimedes Caminero, rhp, Marlins
The No. 8 prospect this summer in the New York-Penn League, Caminero has one of the best arms available with premium arm strength, producing fastballs in the 95-98 mph range with explosive life up in the strike zone. Caminero’s slider was a second plus pitch at times, with mid-80s velocity and inconsistent depth. He has issues holding runners, but the biggest issue is that he’s pitched parts of two seasons in the U.S. after two years in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League, and the 22-year-old still has made just 13 appearances out of short-season ball. However, Jorge Sosa made a similar leap with even less pitching experience, going from the short-season Northwest League in 2001 to the big leagues in 2002 as a Rule 5 pick. "
An arm like that may be easier to hide in the pen.
Caminero struck me as the most likely pick out of this list. Wonder whether he’ll get past the Nats? They’ve had some major bullpen problems in recent years.
by WTM on Dec 2, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
I hope he does...
but if he doesn’t I would go with Brayayn Villareal, Aneury Rodriquez and Cole Rohrbough in that order. I think Caminero and Rohrbough have the highest ceilings but I don’t think that Rohrbough will make it.
Now that you mention it, I don’t think he is. I’ve seen his name listed multiple places, so I just assumed.
I’m kind of confused on the rules, but here’s my understanding. He was a draft and follow in 2006, which means he didn’t sign until late May 2007. Since he was 20 years old at the time he gets 4 years rather than 5 like players 18 and under. I think that means 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010. He probably isn’t eligible until next season.
Interesting list, on the whole...
…but some of those guys would just get eaten alive if they were picked and held, like Robinson Chirinos with his one whole season behind the plate, or Carlos Peguero with his 172 K in A+. Very much oriented on tools, as BA’s evaluations often are.
Breit is a decent suggestion, and Osuna would probably be useful right from the get-go, though his ceiling isn’t anything to get excited about.
The thought of taking Chad Tracy is pretty amusing, under the circumstances.
I’d kinda like to get an infielder, if for no other reason than to put a final nail in the coffins of Cruz and Bixler (speaking just Pirate-career-wise, of course). I thought Henry Garcia and Brian Dinkelman looked interesting. Colin Curtis did, too, as did Tracy, despite the unpleasant memories he’d bring back.
by WTM on Dec 2, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
But
Doesn’t Neil Walker look better across the board than Andy Tracy? I like Vlad’s first mention on the earlier post. Yohan Pino put up some pretty filthy numbers in Columbus and Rochester. Plus he threw strikes in AAA. A WHIP under 1.00 and striking out 25% of the batters he faced!
Viva Clemente!
I went in looking for an infielder...
…but I don’t like any in this year’s crop. The closest to getting my vote is either Garcia (Harold, not Henry, as the BA article calls him) or Daniel Mayora, and both are behind at least a dozen ptichers and outfielders on my ranking.
Tracy’s a born DH, and he doesn’t have as much bat as Clement. It’s hard for me to see how he’d get into games. I don’t think Curtis is going to hit, and while Dinkelman is maybe a decent infield backup, he wouldn’t make Cruz or Bixler obsolete because he can’t play short.
I'd stick with a pitcher.
Much easier to hide, and we have several examples now of pitchers being helped by Kerrigan.
We do have some examples of hitters spending time in the minors and coming up ready to play (Cutch and Jones), and we have some examples of hitters that haven’t improved much with instruction by Long at the MLB level (Moss and Andy).
Long is credited somewhat with changing Jones’ swing, but the work seems to have been done at AAA.
I’d say there seems to be a pattern emerging of coaching strength.
Bobby Cassevah
I figured it was finally time to sign up and post, but in Keith Law’s latest ESPN.com post he brought up a name to watch for in the Rule 5:
The current CBA gutted the player pool for the Rule 5 Draft, but there’s already one name building up some buzz: Angels pitcher Bobby Cassevah. A star high school quarterback who had committed to LSU, he signed with the Angels in 2004 for $175,000 after having Tommy John surgery. Cassevah is a groundball machine; he has a groundball rate of 70.3% per minorleaguesplits.com, with average fastball velocity, occasionally flashing a 94.
I know he’s not the type of high upside rule 5 pick that NH has preferred in the past two year, but he does fit the type of reliever NH prefers (high GBr, decent arm, iffy command).
It’s also a relatively new development. His GB% in his first three years ranged from 46-56%. In 2008 it was 63%. I guess that’s a good trend, but overall he hasn’t been that good a pitcher. His career WHIP is 1.58, he walks a lot of guys and he doesn’t miss bats.
by WTM on Dec 3, 2009 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
Also.....
I wouldn’t discount the Pirates taking two players in this draft. Assuming only about ten go in the first round, I don’t think there is such a lack of room on the forty man to think that it is impossible the Bucs take a flyer on a guy in round 2 as well.
I was pulling for Shelley Duncan
from the Yankees as a short-term (1 or 2 years), cheap fill at 1B. This is based on seeing him slam the ball for a short spell with the Yankees. Then I read this on MLB Trade Rumors (or somewhere)….“Unless he learns how to hit a curve, he’ll never be more than a AAAA player.”
Disappointing. Of course, that is probably why the Yankees didn’t see him as the next Texiera.
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