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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

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Not God-awful...

…but we’re in a bit of trouble if he makes the club. Could probably put up a 5-ish ERA as a second lefty. He was throwing sidearm a bit last year, so at least he’ll be fun to watch.

The P-G also had us re-signing Jeremy Powell, Corey Hamman, and Brian Myrow (link). I wouldn’t mind taking a look at Myrow as a bench bat this spring, though as a lefty he might be a tough fit (insofar as we could use a platoon partner for Jones and/or Clement).

by Vlad on Dec 23, 2009 12:36 PM EST reply actions  

He was pretty bad last year...

all of his peripherals declined from 2007 and 2008 when he was at least a serviceable reliever. I noticed that his average fastball velocity dropped last year when looking at his pitch FX data. Do you know if he had an injury or something that led to the sidearm release?

by Slick1 on Dec 23, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Could be a cause of the sidearm thing...

…or a function of it. Don’t really know.

by Vlad on Dec 23, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Myrow

had a great projection for 2010, for what thats worth, and probably cant do worse than Razor!

by BurgherKing on Dec 23, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d like to see what Myrow might do as well. Like Garrett Jones, last year at Indy was the first time he really got his K/AB rate under 20%. He was at 16%, which combined with his .448 OBP and .330 BA would normally earn him a chance to be successful in MLB. The question is whether he just was lucky or if he made some adjustment to focus on that. If he can do that same thing at Indy for 2 months, he might be Garret Jones light in 2010.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 23, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Myrow has consistently been a better hitter...

…than Jones, throughout his minor league career.

Jones isn’t a good basis for comparison with anybody, since almost nobody has ever done what he did (and it’s still an open question whether he’ll be able to repeat his success in 2010). That said, Myrow’s translated numbers have indicated for years now that he’d probably be at least a decent bench bat.

by Vlad on Dec 24, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions  

If a batter's K/AB rate exceeds 20%...

You can never be sure they can make enough contact in MLB to be successful – either as a regular or a bench player. It could grow just slightly or explode like Bixler’s.

In previous years, it’s been well over 20, like Jones was until he got it under control last year in Indy.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 24, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

It's 25%, that's the marker for concern.

Not 20%.

Contact wasn’t the only issue for Jones in the past. In fact, I wouldn’t even term it the primary issue for him. The low walk rate and the consistently low BABIP were bigger problems, along with his defensive limitations.

by Vlad on Dec 28, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions  

I’ll stick to my 20% on that. I’ve seen a lot of players around 25% in the minors that balloon up to 35+% in the majors. Of course, sometimes there’s a guy like Clement who has a decent K rate in the minors and still struggles mightily in MLB with it. It’s true Jones also had too low a walk rate for a power hitter, which I would consider best around at least 10% ratio of BB/PA.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 29, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions  

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